Welker and Edelman

[ivanvamp]

It's easy in light of the SB victory to forget just how incredible Wes Welker was for the Patriots. Here are the raw numbers….

2007: 145 tgt, 112 rec (77.2%), 1175 yds, 8 td
2008: 149 tgt, 111 rec (74.5%), 1165 yds, 3 td
2009: 162 tgt, 123 rec (75.9%), 1348 yds, 4 td
2010: 123 tgt, 86 rec (69.9%), 848 yds, 7 td
2011: 173 tgt, 122 rec (70.5%), 1569 yds, 9 td
2012: 174 tgt, 118 rec (67.8%), 1354 yds, 6 td

And in the playoffs…

2007: 3 g, 33 tgt, 27 rec (81.8%), 213 yds, 2 td
2010: 1 g, 9 tgt, 7 rec (77.8%), 57 yds, 0 td
2011: 3 g, 23 tgt, 19 rec (82.6%), 168 yds, 1 td
2012: 2 g, 25 tgt, 16 rec (64.0%), 248 yds, 1 td

So just an incredibly productive player for the Patriots.

But since he left, Julian Edelman has stepped in as Brady's #1 target. In the two seasons (2013 and 2014), here's what Edelman has done…

2013: 151 tgt, 105 rec (69.5%), 1056 yds, 6 td
2014: 134 tgt, 92 rec (68.7%), 972 yds, 4 td (just 14 games)

And in the playoffs…

2013: 2 g, 24 tgt, 16 rec (66.7%), 173 yds, 1 td
2014: 3 g, 37 tgt, 26 rec (70.3%), 281 yds, 1 td (plus one passing TD)

So over these time spans, here's the average game by each guy.

Welker
- Reg. Season: 9.9 tgt, 7.1 rec (71.7%), 79.4 yds, 0.4 td
- Playoffs: 10.0 tgt, 7.7 rec (77.0%), 76.2 yds, 0.4 td

Edelman
- Reg. Season: 9.5 tgt, 6.6 rec (69.5%), 67.6 yds, 0.3 td
- Playoffs: 12.1 tgt, 8.4 rec (69.4%), 90.8 yds, 0.4 td

Pretty darned even. Edelman has done more in terms of punt returns.

Welker: 10.4 avg, 0 td (Pats' career)
Edelman: 11.2 avg, 1 td (2013-14)

Rushing:

Welker: 3 rushes, 34 yds, 11.3 avg (Pats' career)
Edelman: 12 rushes, 105 yds, 8.8 avg (2013-14)

Welker was amazing for New England. But Edelman has stepped right in and become everything, essentially, that Welker was. And then some.

I suppose the big thing people will remember is this. In the biggest game of his career, Edelman came up huge, catching the Super Bowl-winning pass from Brady. But in Super Bowl 46, Welker could not haul in the pass from Brady that probably would have clinched the victory for New England against the Giants.

That's not totally fair, of course, because Welker was *INCREDIBLE* for the Patriots, but still. On the whole…I think I'd rather have Edelman in his prime than Welker in his, because Edelman can do everything Welker could, but more - he's a better punt returner, a better runner, and, as the Ravens found out, he can even throw a little. It makes me wonder if this is what the Patriots saw a few years ago when Edelman played a ton early in the season instead of Welker, until Edelman got banged up.

 

[cstjohn17]

I know people love to hate but Welker balled all out for the Pats, his productivity and toughness are legendary. That drop was huge but they made some other critical mistakes that game.

 

[Zuma]

Great stats ivanvamp. Welker was extremely productive for us as you mentioned. Edelman on the other hand may be more talented. In Bill I trust.

 

[Bella*chick]

I really wish we had won in 2007 (and no matter how many we win going forward I will always feel that way. I don't feel the same about 2011 but 2007 was just…we should have had that one, period) and Welker would have gotten what he deserved for all his hard work with us. But I prefer Julian, no doubt about it. List all the numbers you want, but Julian's versatility and excellence no matter what is he doing on the field speak volumes. AND he tells his coach "I'd do anything for you." while Welker had some issues with BB which made things uncomfortable at times. I feel like I can rely more on Julian as a fan to not get himself benched for something dumb.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Wes in his prime was incredible, and I do think a lot of that gets overlooked.

Obviously the drop in the Super Bowl was a huge one. But I also haven't forgotten his stupid comments before the 2010 division play-off loss against the Jets that got him benched to start the game. To me, that was always the beginning of his end as a Patriot. The drop was the final nail.

When he first came to New England, he was a bit of an unknown, especially for what we gave up for him. And early on, he was a revelation, a guy who fit what we wanted to do perfectly. But at some point, I think he got a bit too full of himself and forgot that Brady and BB made him. He started to think he was bigger than the system itself. You could see a lot more "me" moments developing like his comment on Ryan before the Jets game, his "Stick it" comment towards BB when Edelman was being phased in, and by the end, he (and his agent) thought he was bigger than he was.

Brady turned 8th-round pick Troy Brown into a 100+ catch receiver. He even got a good season out of Reche ****ing Caldwell. But at some point, Welker forgot who really ran the show, and I think he learned quite quickly in Denver that he made a big mistake.

It is what it is. He was a great Patriot for a while, then he got too big for the show and went elsewhere. I'll appreciate his contributions, but we did the right thing in not bringing him back, and we moved on perhaps a year early but definitely not a year late like Denver this season.

 

[The Gr8est]

I really wish we had won in 2007 (and no matter how many we win going forward I will always feel that way. I don't feel the same about 2011 but 2007 was just…we should have had that one, period) and Welker would have gotten what he deserved for all his hard work with us. But I prefer Julian, no doubt about it. List all the numbers you want, but Julian's versatility and excellence no matter what is he doing on the field speak volumes. AND he tells his coach "I'd do anything for you." while Welker had some issues with BB which made things uncomfortable at times. I feel like I can rely more on Julian as a fan to not get himself benched for something dumb.

Yeah 2007 is the perpetual itch we can't scratch, but I think that 2007 Pats team accomplished more than any other NFL team ever, when you consider all of the crap they had to take with people openly rooting against them as they tried to go undefeated.

The Tomase revelation just before the game was, I think, the straw that broke the camel's back.

If that team could have just been left alone to prepare and play the game they may have made history.

 

[patfanken]

I hope Welker gets all the props he deserves for his career with the Pats. I'd even love to see him put on that Red Jacket one day. BUT the fact was by 2012 he was a player on the decline. His drops increased every year, while his catch radius shrunk. Also his ability to get open in the years when he was elevated to the #1 or #2 target diminished drastically.

We shouldn't punish Welker for getting old and beaten up. When he was at his best he truly redefined the slot receiver position. But not meeting his demands in 2013 WAS without question the correct decision. Even though Welker had a great statistical year in 2013, Edelman's were better overall, and that was when Welker had the benefit of playing with an elite QB and 3 other top notch receiver options.

In fact the last 5 games when Amandola amassed 35 catches and 3 TD's, shows he would have been an adequate replacement for Wes, had he been healthy. Just project those 35 catches over 16 games. Instead he wasn't and Edelman was ready to seize the opportunity, and pretty much buried Amendola in the depth chart until those last 5 games when he showed his true potential.

Bottom Line - as good as Welker was in NE, and as good as he was in Denver in 2013, no one can make a case that the Pats lost a single step by the loss of Wes Welker. In fact a very good case can be made that the Pats have gotten younger, deeper and even more productive at the position over the last 2 years.

BOTTOM LINE - whenever I hear the mediots whine about how the Pats run their team and continually complain about the effects of not paying guys like Milloy, Law, McGinest, Seymour, and Mankins, just drives me nuts. Its like they refuse to look at the facts of what actually happened, and totally ignore the positive effects of what each decision incurred.

 

[Joker]

BOTTOM LINE - whenever I hear the mediots whine about how the Pats run their team and continually complain about the effects of not paying guys like Milloy, Law, McGinest, Seymour, and Mankins, just drives me nuts. Its like they refuse to look at the facts of what actually happened, and totally ignore the positive effects of what each decision incurred.

and the Steves From Fall River and the Dannys From Quincy and all the rest of the shrink wrapped pinheads who constantly shriek negatives over the airwaves and claim to speak for all of US. Thank you for your thoughts Ken. I wish there was an "etch in stone" icon to merit your work.

 

[MassPats38]

BOTTOM LINE - whenever I hear the mediots whine about how the Pats run their team and continually complain about the effects of not paying guys like Milloy, Law, McGinest, Seymour, and Mankins, just drives me nuts. Its like they refuse to look at the facts of what actually happened, and totally ignore the positive effects of what each decision incurred.

I believe some of this is the natural inclination to seek out a sense of loyalty to players, and pay out of a sense of nostalgia. The same is often true of this 'traitor' discussion when a player leaves. The best teams can see the value in players, and what a player is truly worth to the organization in a given year. The Pats are a cold, ruthless organization when it comes to contract management, but that is what it takes to successfully put a quality team on the field under a salary cap restraint. That does not reflect the organization as a whole in all aspects of its relationship with players and former players. This is a business in the end. The measure of a successful business in the NFL is winning, and the Pats have done just that for a very long time.

 

[patfanken]

I believe some of this is the natural inclination to seek out a sense of loyalty to players, and pay out of a sense of nostalgia. The same is often true of this 'traitor' discussion when a player leaves. The best teams can see the value in players, and what a player is truly worth to the organization in a given year. The Pats are a cold, ruthless organization when it comes to contract management, but that is what it takes to successfully put a quality team on the field under a salary cap restraint. That does not reflect the organization as a whole in all aspects of its relationship with players and former players. This is a business in the end. The measure of a successful business in the NFL is winning, and the Pats have done just that for a very long time.

I agree with what you say, except for the your description of the Pats as a "cold and ruthless organization. Since when do we have to equate being smart and effective with being cold or ruthless. None of these players were left sleeping in a box in an alley. Everyone of them went on to continue their careers with other teams, usually making more money than they would have had they stayed. Nor can I recall ONE of them who's play ever equaled the money he got once the left the Pats.

The Pats did Mike Vrabel a big favor when he was traded. They made sure he got the last dollar of his last contract. Money he'd never have gotten had they cut him as they would have had to do. Richard Seymour got the biggest DL contract in history (for that time) and them played only one year that was remotely close to the money he was being paid. As for Mankins, what do you thing his chance are of staying with the Buc's under the terms of his current contract?

Cold and ruthless describes something that is mean, selfish, and uncaring. I don't think how the Pats deal with their players is anything close to that. Otherwise how come so many to have left come back and speak so glowingly about their experience. They are almost universal in their praise.

 

[ewg_gestalt]

Welker was amazing for New England. But Edelman has stepped right in and become everything, essentially, that Welker was. And then some.

And one other amazing fact that tends to be forgotten about: has there ever been as successful a conversion project in the history of the NFL? After all, we can legitimately debate if Edelman is a top-10 or top-20 receiver. But how many of those other receivers were anything other than receivers six years ago?

 

[wizwor]

It's easy in light of the SB victory to forget just how incredible Wes Welker was for the Patriots. Here are the raw numbers….

In the biggest game of his career, Edelman came up huge, catching the Super Bowl-winning pass from Brady. But in Super Bowl 46, Welker could not haul in the pass from Brady that probably would have clinched the victory for New England against the Giants.

I fixed that up for you -- taking out all the stuff that doesn't matter.

 

[Chevy]

I really wish we had won in 2007 (and no matter how many we win going forward I will always feel that way. I don't feel the same about 2011 but 2007 was just…we should have had that one, period) and Welker would have gotten what he deserved for all his hard work with us. But I prefer Julian, no doubt about it. List all the numbers you want, but Julian's versatility and excellence no matter what is he doing on the field speak volumes. AND he tells his coach "I'd do anything for you." while Welker had some issues with BB which made things uncomfortable at times. I feel like I can rely more on Julian as a fan to not get himself benched for something dumb.

I keep thinking back to the clip of BB and WW on the sideline watching Julian return a punt. BB remarks to Wes "You ever hear of Wally Pipp?" - saying Julian could be Lou Gehrig to Wes's Pipp in the return game. Wes says something like "He can have it", and of course BB comes back with "Way to compete."

While it was mostly in jest, it's a far cry from "I'd do anything for you"

 

[MassPats38]

I agree with what you say, except for the your description of the Pats as a "cold and ruthless organization. Since when do we have to equate being smart and effective with being cold or ruthless. None of these players were left sleeping in a box in an alley. Everyone of them went on to continue their careers with other teams, usually making more money than they would have had they stayed. Nor can I recall ONE of them who's play ever equaled the money he got once the left the Pats.

The Pats did Mike Vrabel a big favor when he was traded. They made sure he got the last dollar of his last contract. Money he'd never have gotten had they cut him as they would have had to do. Richard Seymour got the biggest DL contract in history (for that time) and them played only one year that was remotely close to the money he was being paid. As for Mankins, what do you thing his chance are of staying with the Buc's under the terms of his current contract?

Cold and ruthless describes something that is mean, selfish, and uncaring. I don't think how the Pats deal with their players is anything close to that. Otherwise how come so many to have left come back and speak so glowingly about their experience. They are almost universal in their praise.

I meant that phrase in the "without pity" sense, not cruel. An assassin can be "smart and effective" in how he carries out his work. If you are the target, then you likely wouldn't characterize the work that way. It is a question of perspective. When players invest heart and soul in a team sport, and slowly feel the effects of that sport, you either pay for the past and all the sacrifice and suffering, or you pay for the now. The Pats do not work contracts on the past glory, as other teams might in getting into cap struggles. Playing with serious injury will not serve as insurance next year for a player. That is what I mean by cold and ruthless.

If you disagree with that, are you saying the Pats pay players based on sentimental attachment? Did Vrabel want to leave (ie., was he happy with that decision? Not at all.)? Did Mankins want to leave? Did Willie Mac want to leave? Did Vinatieri necessarily want to leave? Do you really believe their exits were facilitated by the Pats out of a sense of their well-being, or out of concern for the well-being of the organization? If you quantify what someone is and revalue them as a human being/athlete under a lesser value, does that strike you as a warm embrace from the organization? If your boss said you could stay at work at 1/2 pay, and you have the option of leaving for the same salary, would that be smart and effective or cold and ruthless?

We are talking NFL players, predictable longevity in careers and management, not the real world. Guys don't show up at soup kitchens generally with a $1, $2 $3 or $20 million payday. These contracts cannot be viewed from the perspective of the average Joe, because the average Joe doesn't deal with the effects, and will likely never have to earn all his or her money in 4 to 6 years if the physical destruction is realized.

The Pats are and have been winners, and true athletes/competitors are drawn to that. Toe the line or get out. Law is around now, but he didn't stay when active. Milloy came back, but certainly didn't look to return when an active player. The same with Bledsoe. Reveling in the glory years and coming to understand the business aspect of the NFL is not the same as embracing the results when you are the object of the results. Belichick doesn't kick the players puppies, so I am not saying he maltreats them. But his approach in Cleveland with Bernie is just as true today, which means there should be more of an expectation that when your time is up, the team will dump you or devalue you. It doesn't matter who you are or what you did. It happened to Troy, and it happened to Faulk. It will likely happen to Brady. That is the way it is.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I worked in private industry. When push came to shove I would love to have been treated as well (relatively speaking not in absolute dollars) as BB treated guys like Vrabes.

 

[Gwedd]

I worked in private industry. When push came to shove I would love to have been treated as well (relatively speaking not in absolute dollars) as BB treated guys like Vrabes.

Word.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I keep thinking back to the clip of BB and WW on the sideline watching Julian return a punt. BB remarks to Wes "You ever hear of Wally Pipp?" - saying Julian could be Lou Gehrig to Wes's Pipp in the return game. Wes says something like "He can have it", and of course BB comes back with "Way to compete."

While it was mostly in jest, it's a far cry from "I'd do anything for you"

Here it is......

 

[JoeSixPat]

I really wish we had won in 2007 (and no matter how many we win going forward I will always feel that way. I don't feel the same about 2011 but 2007 was just…we should have had that one, period) and Welker would have gotten what he deserved for all his hard work with us. But I prefer Julian, no doubt about it. List all the numbers you want, but Julian's versatility and excellence no matter what is he doing on the field speak volumes. AND he tells his coach "I'd do anything for you." while Welker had some issues with BB which made things uncomfortable at times. I feel like I can rely more on Julian as a fan to not get himself benched for something dumb.

I think the fact that Edelman is more versatile and can do more is also a difference maker in a championship season

And for all he can do, and as many big games as he had, it's more about the big plays than the big stats

Case in point, although 2007 started out with a more diverse offense, by the end of the season it was the Moss/Welker show - overall they got 52% of the targets (160 targets and 145 targets respectively) that season and even that looks lower than it effectively was given a more diverse offense using Stallworth more earlier in the season

The over-reliance on Welker was even more pronounced in 2011 when Welker got a whopping 172 targets

Compare that to 2014 when I felt that Brady (and I think there were some growing pains here) was pushed and eventually re-embraced a more diverse offense a la the Super Bowl years

This season Edelman had 135 targets and Gronk had 130. They really used LaFell quite effectively too for more of a 3 headed monster.

The key difference isn't so much shown in the stats, but when Brady HAD to make a play, it was more difficult for the D to know where the ball was going and hence, my feeling is they made those big plays this post season that they didn't make in 2007 and 2011

Ultimately these are small differences but they do make ALL the difference in winning or losing in the Super Bowl

 

[Jackson 2]

I would be interested in people's response to this question: Was there ever a time in Edelman's career when you thought to yourself ahead of time in a clutch situation, "God, I hope it doesn't come down to him because I'm not sure he won't f### it up?" I'll just answer for myself: never.

 

[Bed Check Billy]

I would be interested in people's response to this question: Was there ever a time in Edelman's career when you thought to yourself ahead of time in a clutch situation, "God, I hope it doesn't come down to him because I'm not sure he won't f### it up?" I'll just answer for myself: never.

I completely agree. He always played with heart and when it came time to make his mark on Patriots history, he delivered. The stats do not tell the complete story. It just comes down to the eye test and Edelman passes the eye test. The great players show up on the biggest stage and become legends. Edelman will always be considered a great Patriot. If you were picking between Edelman and Welker for the ring of honor, who would you choose? Edelman all day.