I'm getting more and more attached to the Jamie Collins pick for the following reasons:
1. We all knew that any pick on the defensive side was more of a "luxury" pick. A pick to upgrade depth and overall talent. I think BB picked Collins over my personal binkie, Margus Hunt, because he it was a rare opportunity to get the kind of impact athlete that the Pats RARELY get a chance to pick because they draft so low in every round.
2. If you go to NFL.com and check out Collins' measurables with Dion Jordan who went #3 to the Dolphins, the similarities are eerily similar and even slightly favor Collins. Both ran 4.6 forties. Both had 7 second 3 cones. Both had 4.3 shuttle times. Collins out jumped Jordan by a foot and a half in the broad jump, and by almost a foot in vertical jump. And while Jordan is 2 inches taller they both have the same arm length. So if you are looking at the "measurables" Collins is just as fast, quick and as strong as a guy who was picked 50 slots ahead of him, but proved to be more "explosive" as shown by the 2 drills designed to measure explosiveness.
3. Now here is where the comparison gets down right scary. Its one thing to compare how players do in the underwear olympics. But I'd like to see a comparison of what they did on the field. We know that last season Collins had 90 tackles, 20 for a loss, 10 sacks and 5 passes defended and a chart below that showed he had a just 3% miss rate on tackles, the best among all OLB's
4. I would love if a stats guy could find how Collins fares compared to Mingo and Jordan in just these 4 categories (tackles, tackles for loses, sacks and passed defended) I would be willing to bet that Collins fairs very well in that comparison
5. Comparing him to Mingo you see that they are also very similar, though Mingo ran a slightly faster 40 time (by 6/100's of a second, and a faster 3 cone time by a tenth of second. Though Collins had a slightly fast shuttle. Also Collins, like with Jordan, out jumped him by a foot and a foot and a half respectively in the VJ and BJ. Again like Jordan, Mingo is 3 inches taller, but all 3 have the same arm length.
In the following comparison, you see Collins compares very well with Mingo in his on field production. In fact BETTER than alright.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF0YP-PCUAExs9D.png
6. A couple of other things to consider when you make these comparisons. Mingo and Jordan played on 2 of the top 5 programs in the country with the best coaching and facilities available. Collins, as widely reported....not so much.
Collins 10 sacks and 5 passes defended are even more impressive when you consider that because their defense was SO bad, teams rarely had to throw the ball. In fact there were only 3 defenses in the entire country who were thrown against less.
7. Below are 2 more links to charts that show how Collins compares so favorably with the best OLB/DE prospects in the league. The first is from football outsiders, who discuss explosiveness as an indicator to predicting pass rush effectiveness. BTW - NO one had a higher explosiveness index than Collins. Not Mingo, or Jordan, or Anseh, or Jarvis Jones.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | SackSEER 2013
The other is the chart that shows Collin's tackling efficiency. That 3% number I mentioned earlier that led all OLB prospect in this draft
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFMily9CMAA5BBR.jpg:large.
8. Now here is a question you. If Collins was truly guilty of "quitting on is team". If he were truly lazy and taking off plays on a regular basis, yet STILL managed to put up numbers that were equal or better than the 2 top guys taken close to 50 spots before him; IMAGINE what he might accomplish if he was actually motivated to go all out and had good coaching.
Now the truth is that while he never truly quit on his team, he could very well have become victim to a really bad team with coaches to had "lost" those players That is NOT a good situation. I have been on a couple of BAD college football teams and know all too well how hard it is to keep motivated and playing at your best when all you do is lose. And we loved our coaches
. I can't imagine how it would have been if we had hated them.
Bottom line, I just can get my head around the claims of sloth by scouts and draft gurus, when I look at the productivity on the field. They just don't match a guy who "quit on his team. OTOH I almost hope its true, because if THAT's the kind of productivity he gets when he's disinterested, imagine what he can do when properly motivated and coached
9. OK now here's were I go out on a limb. Its a very long one and not very thick or sturdy, but I feel the necessity to do so anyway. I opine that 3 years down the road, Jamie Collins has an excellent chance to be JUST as effective a player Dion Jordan and Barky Mingo. That 3 years from now we will look back at this draft and say with pride the Pats got the best OLB in the draft.
10. Now here is the disclaimer. I understand that Collins is a raw talent in great need of pass rushing techniques to compete on this next level. I understand that he likely won't have the luxury that was afford guys like Quinn and Ervin, to "just" rush the passer. He going to asked to work in coverage as well.
That being said I haven't been as sure of a draft pick turing out to be more than just "good" in a long time.
