Week 5, Patriots at Broncos

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jmt57, Oct 8, 2009.

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  1. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    We have had some good back and forth discussion prior to the game each of the last few weeks, spiced with some good commentary from fans of the Pats opponents. Since this topic has grown each week I figure it's time to try it again. Besides, it's Thursday and about time to look ahead to the next game rather than back at the Ravens.


    Bronco fans are welcome and encouraged to jump right in and offer your insight about the Denver team.

    Here's a few links for those here that want to read more about the Broncos:

    Official Team Site: Denver Broncos

    Newspaper: Denver Post; Boulder Daily Camera; apparently the Rocky Mountain News went under.

    Radio: KKFN 104.3 The Fan; KEPN espn 1600; KCKK 1510 Mile High Sports Radio

    TV: KCNC cbs-ch4; KUSA nbc-ch9; KMGH abc-ch7; KDVR fox-ch31

    Fan Sites: Broncos Forums; Broncos Freak; Bronco Talk; Orange Mane; Mile High Report; Mile High Salute; Broncos Gab
  2. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    RYObroncosfan's take on the game

    From the Visiting Locker Room, by Denver fan RYObroncosfan

  3. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #11 Jersey

    My main worry from a Denver standpoint, the one weakness I see is Orton. If he can manage the game, it will likely come down to who scores last. If he reverts to form and gets that "deer in the headlights look", then Denver will rack up it's first "L" of the season. I fully expect that to be the case. :cool:
  4. tsiguy96

    tsiguy96 Rookie

    to expect the patriots to put up 30+ points on the broncos defense is silly. i really expect this to be a 17-10, 20-13 type game. dunno who wins, but neither team is gonna score alot, the broncos now have a LOT of talent on the team, more than people here are giving them credit for, and considering lack of depth at WR positon for the patriots and the depth we DO have at cornerback, thats a good match up for us. if broncos pressure tom all game like they have been all year, broncos win. if patriots can stop the pass rush, theyll win. i expect the broncos to run the ball, and a lot, as well as a lot of screens to moreno or marshall.
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Jmt57, thanks for starting this thread. I very much enjoyed all of the discussion with fans of other teams over the past few weeks.

    Welcome back, and thanks for the intelligent and well thought out post.

    I think that's a very realistic and rational assessment. Your D has played fabulously, but I think a top 10 (possibly top 5) assessment is reasonable at this point given that it's still early and the competition hasn't been top notch.

    Mike Nolan deserves a lot of credit. I hope he doesn't become Denver's Dick LeBeau and serve as a thorn in our side for a decade. Great job. He's certainly exploited Dumervil's and the secondary's strengths. Brian Dawkins was always a class job, and he's clearly brought some much needed leadership to the Broncos defense.

    Champ is Champ - he's burned us many times before, and has our respect, opponent or not. Your secondary and pass defense are very, very good. I know that your rush defense has have good numbers so far, but it's less clear to me that you aren't vulnerable against the run. I think you will see a fair amount of that next week. After Baltimore's stifling run defense, anything else should be easier.

    Lot of big Ryan Clady admirers on this board, me among them. I was torn between Mayo, Rodgers-Cromartie and Clady at the #10 pick in 2008. We obviously didn't go wrong in Mayo, but Clady has been a stud. I'm torn between him and Michael Roos as my 2 favorite OT's.

    I'm not at all surprised by Orton's QB rating. He's obviously a bright kid who knows how to play within his capabilities and the system, and McDaniels clearly wanted a Cassel-type guy who wouldn't make mistakes and cost games - sort of the anti-Cutler gunslinger mentality. I thought the whole Cutler thing was ridiculous, and was mostly engineered by his agent as a way to get a big new contract; I was appalled how much the public and media bought into his sob story about feeling "dissed". You're much better off without him. My guess is you will win the division this year (SD has no defense and no running game, which is not a recipe for long term success), after 4 years of no playoffs under Shanahan and Cutler. Josh was always a class act for us, and I wish him success (especially against the Chargers, just not against us).

    I think Cutler holding on to the ball is key. We should be bringing a lot of pressure and trying to get him to make mistakes.

    I think it's going to be a game of who makes the least mistakes. If Orton continues to play mistake-free ball, doesn't give us any freebies, and we don't execute, the game will be close, as you predict. If we get ahead and can rattle Orton into some mistakes the game could become one-sided. You haven't been down by much so far this season, and I don't think you have the firepower to come back from 2 TDs or more down if we get a lead. The game could easily be low-scoring and close, but we could end up scoring 30 or more points if our defense puts some points on the board and we get a comfortable lead.

    Defensively I see us focusing on shutting down your running game, containing Marshall (probably with McGowan or Meriweather helping out), and pressuring Orton. I'm hoping Derrick Burgess shows up this week, we could use him. Our secondary is very, very good and after Flacco and Matt Ryan I don't see Orton as a major threat. Unless we give up points to your defense (and our offense has already given up 14 points this year) I don't see you getting more than 17 points, and probably less. If you take away the 2 touchdowns our offense gave up, our defense is average 14 PPG. The Ravens are 2nd in scoring and 3rd in total offense, but our defense still only gave up 14 points, and stopped them at the end of each half. So to my mind it comes down to just how good your defense really is.

    The Jets held us to 9 points, but that was without Welker, with a lot of pressure on Brady, and with terrible red zone execution. We had our opportunities. Otherwise we've been averaging 26 PPG (25 against Buffalo, 26 against Atlanta, 27 against Baltimore) which would put us in the top 10, right up with Indy. We're capable of much more. I think you have your work cut out holding us to less than 17 points, if we execute. We're still rusty on offense. How we do against your defense will be a good litmus test of whether the offense is coming around.

    As you say, you've had a great year so far, and I look forward to a good game.
  6. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    I think we'll play a lot of 4-1-6 dime with McGowan motioning down as LB again. I think this will continue until Mayo returns or Seau signs on, for the next game.
  7. Thing is, Denver would be much more dangerous offensively if drive killing penalties hadn't killed us.

    Game 1: Cincy, a false start and subsequent holding penalty by the offense takes Denver from the 15 yard line back to the 29 where Orton gets sacked on 3rd down taking them out of FG range and the chance to ice the game (thus making the miracle moot).

    Game 4: Dallas. First half, 10 offensive penalties on the o-line killed every drive we had. At one point it was 2nd and 29. Not a recipe for success.

    Conversely, when Denver has avoided shooting itself in the foot on offense, they have moved the ball effectively. Like the Patriots, they are suffering this early season with Red Zone woes, but they are working on it and we are hoping to get it resolved.

    If the forecast is snow, I dont expect either team to score more than 17 points. Despite the good start the Patriots are on, I do expect Denver to hold them in the teens. Dallas was the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the league until they came to Denver and Denver completely shut them down after the first quarter.

    This should be a great game as it usually is with the Patriots. Some of my favorite non-divisional games have been against your team. The Divisional Playoff game ending your dynasty :) The 2003 4th quarter loss in Denver on a Brady come back, last years game sucked but thats the exception to the rivalry, not the rule.
  8. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    NFL Stats

    Some statistics through the first four weeks of 2009:

    Yards per game: Pats 376 (8th), Broncos 365 (9th)
    Points per game: Pats 21.8 (14th), Broncos 19.8 (19th)
    Yards per play: Broncos 5.8 (7th), Pats 5.2 (17th)
    3rd Down: Pats 59%, 27/59 (7th); Broncos 49%, 18/49 (18th)
    Time of Possession: Pats 35:41 (3rd); Broncos 30:36 (12th)
    Turnover Ratio: Broncos +7 (1st); Pats +2 (9th)

    Yards: Pats 273.8 (5th), Broncos 217.0 (18th)
    Percentage: Pats 62.1 (13th), Broncos 59.0 (21st)
    QB Rating: Broncos 97.7 (9th), Pats 83.7 (19th)
    20+ yard plays: Broncos 13 (9th), Pats 9 (19th)
    40+ yard plays: Broncos 3 (6th), Pats 0 (26th)
    Sacks Allowed: Pats 4 (5th), Broncos 6 (10th)
    Broncos: 5 TD, 0 INT; Pats: 4 TD, 2 INT

    Yards: Broncos 148.0 (4th), Pats 102.2 (17th)
    Yards per Carry: Broncos 4.7 (8th), Pats 3.7 (22nd)

    Kickoff Returns: Pats 23.0 (16th), Broncos 19.6 (30th)
    Punt Returns: Broncos 7.8 (18th), Pats 6.8 (21st)

    Yards Per Game: Broncos 239.8 (2nd), Pats 287.5 (7th)
    Points per game: 6.5 (1st), Pats 17.8 (9th)
    Yards per play: 4.0 (1st), Pats 5.4 (18th)
    3rd down: Broncos 26% (2nd), 14/53; Pats 41% (23rd), 18/44

    Yards: Broncos 162.5 (3rd), Pats 192.2 (7th)
    Percentage: tied with 59.8% (12th)
    QB Rating: Broncos 56.0 (2nd), Pats 90.8 (21st)
    20+ yard plays: Broncos 7 (4th), Pats 10 (12th)
    40+ yard plays: tied with 1 (7th)
    Sacks: Broncos 15 (2nd), Pats 8 (15th)
    Broncos: 0 TD, 6 INT; Pats: 5 TD, 1 INT

    Yards: Broncos 77.2 (5th), Pats 95.2 (11th)
    Yards per Carry: 3.2 (6th), Pats 4.5 (21st)

    Yards: Broncos 70.9 (3rd), Patriots 70.8 (4th)
    Touchbacks: Broncos 9 (1st), 47.4% (2nd); Pats 5 (8th), 22.7% (11th)
    Return Average: Broncos 22.6 (14th), Pats 27.4 (29th)
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2009
  9. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Brady A Challenge For Broncos D'

    Brady a challenge for Broncos D' by Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News
  10. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Josh gets a lot of credit for the team being 4-0 after trading away Cutler, but I think the way he's handled Marshall has been amazing. He didn't give in, he let Marshall make a fool of himself in practice (which I think turned a lot of the team against him), and then benched him.

    Marshall pouted a bit but then responded in a positive way, and now he's back to making big plays while being a critical member of the team. And it served as a lesson to everyone else that no single player is above the team.

    I liked Josh when he was in NE, though I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of his. He did a good job here, but he's really impressed me with the way things have turned around in Denver.
  11. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    What impresses me most about the job McDaniels is doing is that he is building a team that is mentally tough. He's shown a lot of toughness, he's accepted responsibility when things haven't worked out (even when there were extenuating circumstances), he's made it clear who's in charge, and he's gotten the team on the same page. My impression is that everyone who's there buys into his program at this point, which is amazing given where they were 6 months ago. He's gotten them back to sound, fundamental football with a smart QB who won't make dumb mistakes, a talented RB corps, and an aggressive defense.

    Top to bottom they aren't in the same league talent wise as some of the top teams. But they don't have to be to be successful. The Pats won their first SB with a team very much like this Bronco's team. And he's building a foundation for the future. Compare that to teams like San Diego, the Ravens, and the Cowboys who have a lot of talent on their rosters but who aren't mentally tough and find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. It seems to me that it's harder to build that mental toughness and team unity than it is to add talent. The Pats, Steelers, Giants and Colts stand out to me as the mentally tough teams in the NFL, and not surprisingly, they've won 7 out of the last 8 Super Bowls between them.

    It's fun to watch McDaniels build his team - kind of like rolling the clock back 10 years and watching BB. He's sort of like Matt Cassel was as TB's backup, studying the top guy's every move and mimicking him so that he could learn. I personally don't hate the Ponies the way some do - I vastly prefer them to the Chargers and Raiders in the AFC West - so I'm quite content to see them succeed, just not to the point of beating us.
  12. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

  13. JSn

    JSn Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    I hope this thread goes like the other weeks without devolving like a few opposing fan posters did.

    This game is going to be good. I think the rush game is going to be there for us, even w/o Taylor.

    I also think with Denver missing their lead rusher (who could also catch), our run D is going to force them to go the air, where it will be tough for them to score if they only move in bursts of 4-6 yards.

    The D will be aggressive as this secondary is obviously more athletic and making it tough to pass against.

    I expect a good game, a LOT of chess-type moves and in the end...

  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Elvis Dumervil

    One of the keys to the game appears to be how well the Pats offensive line protects Tom Brady against the Denver pass rush - and specifically what their game plan is to contain Elvis Dumervil.

    Matt Light talks about Elvis Dumervil in an interview with Christopher Price of WEEI
    The Denver Post says Dumervil plans on treating Brady like every other QB while not-so-subtely spinning this week's most popular media story, that NFL referees are favoring Brady and the Patriots.

    Peter King of Sports Illustrated says Stopping Dumervil is no small task for Patriots

    Broncos' Dumervil has become money as big-time pass rusher by the Denver Post
  15. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    Re: Elvis Dumervil

    Jmt57, thanks for posting all those tidbits. Interesting reads.
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    That didn't seem to be an issue the past 3 weeks, when Jets/Falcons/Ravens fans posted on threads created here to discuss the issues around the upcoming game. For the most part, opposing fans were curteous and their comments reasonable. I personally don't see any reason why they shouldn't be allowed to post (not start threads, but post) here as long as they remain reasonable non-trollish.

    I think the management of the board should let us know clearly where these discussions to go. There is currently 3 places such discussion has gone. It's confusing.
  17. RYObroncosfan

    RYObroncosfan On the Game Day Roster

    I agree...I'm not curious at all to find out how we play when down by a couple scores, but it'll be interesting to see how it turns out when that situation finally does happen. The thing is, it all depends on the time left in the game. 4th quarter down by 14? It'll take some luck, to say the least. I don't trust leaving the game in Orton's hands, yet I do trust leaving the game in McDaniels' hands to call the right plays.

    The more time left in the game, the better chance I think we have to come back (I suppose this is always the case, but I'm talking about from the standpoint of play calling and team morale).

    This is what has me a little bit excited for the game...although shutting down our running game could be easier without Buckhalter...Moreno has shown some flashes of excellence. The running game will certainly be impacted, but I think it could still end up ok.

    Last game, and really that last play was the first time all season Marshall was really a threat. The offense had been managing (not excelling, but managing) without him up until that point. He'd been returning from an injury, not really knowing the playbook, and not really caught up in practice. He practiced a LOT last week, some analyst there said they hadn't seen a WR practice so hard since Michael Irvin. My point? The fact that Marshall has shown he can have a big impact on the game, and will be a focus means that Orton is more likely to find Stokely and Gaffner open more often. Not only that, but Eddie Royal could FINALLY be making an impact.

    What's gone unnoticed is how Royal's struggles are directly related to Marshall's impact. Gaffney and Stokely have been the primary receivers because Eddie Royal is easily shut down with the extra attention. Now that the attention is gone, his game could be opened up.

    That, and the fact that the offense seems to be grasping the playbook and running the offense better and better each week leads me to believe that we have the potential to score more than 17 points of offense. Do I think we will? I don't know. What did I say in the predict the score thread? 20-17 Pats in OT? I think it'll be something like that. Royal is the X-factor this week in my opinion. If he's open, you'll notice.

    I understand, but again, Buffalo was 2 late scores, and Atlanta and Baltimore (don't let the 'Baltimore' throw you off) aren't top 10 defenses. Baltimore is still above average, but not by that much. They're aging, they lost a huge player in Bart Scott, and they lost their defensive-minded coach).
    Again, I still think you'll get 20 or more points, but I don't think (and I sure hope I'm not wrong) you'll get more than 30 points, unless you get 7 or more through your defense.

    The fact that it's in Denver and the weather could suck plays in our favor, probably as much as 3-5 points...in the end, I'm just really looking for a close game. At least then, a) we'll get respect from those who still refuse to give any b) I'll be more confident in my team, knowing we can compete with pretty much anyone and c) so it's not like last year ;)
  18. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Brady won't get rattled; Broncos' defense must be solid

    Analysis: Brady won't get rattled - defense must be solid by the Denver Post

    A Denver writer surmises that the Broncos can't count on Brady making the same mistakes Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn and Tony Romo have. Brady states the obvious as he notes that throwing at Champ Bailey is not a smart move.

    More on Champ Bailey: Bailey relishes increase in passes coming his way
    Bailey also goes on to criticize those who accuse Moss of dogging it in Oakland, asking 'did he have a quarterback' with the Raiders. Teammate Brian Dawkins says he doesn't understand why quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Tony Romo threw the ball in Bailey's direction. The Moss - Bailey matchup should be an intriguing subplot to Sunday's game.

    There's also this on the turnaround of the Denver defense:
  19. basslicker

    basslicker Rookie

    I agree with you. But its Denver's time to enter the L column. It'll be a close game. I have a good feeling about this year. When the Pats won their Superbowls, they didn't blow many people out. They won and lost close games. (for the most part) That way people won't be seeing them coming.

    Also, first time post from Canada. Go Pats!
  20. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Agreed. And I think a big part of that mental toughness involved getting rid of Cutler. He's got a lot of talent, but a kid who cries that much over a potential trade rumour was never going to be the poster boy for a mentally-tough team. Orton's nowhere near Cutler in talent, but he's a much better fit for what they're doing and I get the feeling he's respected by his teammates.

    And you're right, this team does remind me of the earlier Pats teams, which is why I'm taking this week's game much more seriously than I did when the schedule first came out.
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