Week 11 vs. Miami, a must win?

[JoePats]

If we lose to Miami we won't be able to break a tie with Miami or the Jets (unless the Jets lose to both Miami and Buffalo both at home which won't happen). Both Miami and the Jets have reasonable schedules. So does Indy.

It might not be wrong to say that if we lose to Miami we'll have to run the table. That doesn't even factor in Baltimore. And who knows what to make of the Chargers, though they could win the division.

 

[Jimke]

Miami is the first in a series of must games. It will probably

take an 11-5 record to make the playoffs if the Pats do not

win the division.

I give the Patriots credit for not folding up the tent when Brady

got injured. Matt Cassel has come a long way since the

preseason.

The Patriots Achille's heel is their defense. They have very loose

pass coverage combined with an inferior pass rush. This late

in the season, there aren't many personnel changes the coaches

can make. The Pats simply don't have a shut down defense.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

No, but it would put them in a position to win the rest out. However, if they lose more games after Miami, they can't afford a loss to Oakland, Pittsburgh or Buffalo.

 

[makoute]

Miami is the first in a series of must games. It will probably

take an 11-5 record to make the playoffs if the Pats do not

win the division.

I give the Patriots credit for not folding up the tent when Brady

got injured. Matt Cassel has come a long way since the

preseason.

The Patriots Achille's heel is their defense. They have very loose

pass coverage combined with an inferior pass rush. This late

in the season, there aren't many personnel changes the coaches

can make. The Pats simply don't have a shut down defense.

They can blitz more, but I agree, it might take an 11-5 record for the Patriots to make it to the playoffs.

 

[upstater1]

I expect us to finish 10-6 and in the playoffs.

Now, it's hard to see 10-6 if we lose to Miami, but it's not impossible.

So, in that sense, it's not a must-win game.

 

[upstater1]

They can blitz more, but I agree, it might take an 11-5 record for the Patriots to make it to the playoffs.

I'm scratching my head at this. 10-6 will be good enough.

I expect to see a 9-7 team get in this year.

 

[Bonzo]

I expect to see a 9-7 team get in this year.

Surely, not in the AFC? There are fix/six-win teams with pillowy schedules aplenty. Even 10-6 will depend on tie-breakers, I'd wager.

 

[dtbrks]

well, it's about a big of a game as there can be at this point.
If they loose, the playoffs will be hard to make.

To me, it's a must win.

 

[upstater1]

I've looked at all the schedules. I'm betting Indy gets the first wild card.

But then look at the Ravens schedule. I see them at 9-7. I see the Phins at 9-7. If the Patriots go to 9-7, they don't get in, probably, but one of these three 9-7 teams will.

Chargers are done. Ravens have a tough tough schedule. Miami is spending the whole month of December practically away from home. That will take its toll.

Let's say we lose to Miami next week. I still say it comes down to Baltimore, Miami and New England for the final spot. If we win, though, then the Jets could be thrown into the mix as well as a possible wildcard.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

I've looked at all the schedules. I'm betting Indy gets the first wild card.

But then look at the Ravens schedule. I see them at 9-7. I see the Phins at 9-7. If the Patriots go to 9-7, they don't get in, probably, but one of these three 9-7 teams will.

Chargers are done. Ravens have a tough tough schedule. Miami is spending the whole month of December practically away from home. That will take its toll.

Let's say we lose to Miami next week. I still say it comes down to Baltimore, Miami and New England for the final spot. If we win, though, then the Jets could be thrown into the mix as well as a possible wildcard.

Yeah saying that the Jets will loose next week to the Titans, they are 7 -4

We win against Miami, we are 7 - 4

Miami then drops to 6 - 5

And the Bills loose and they are 5 -5

We have a very good chance of getting far into the post season....

 

[jmt57]

I fully expect the Pats to beat Miami next week, but to call it a 'must' win or they won't make the playoffs is an over reaction. Even if the Dolphins win, the AFC East would be Jets and Dolphins 7-4, and the Pats 6-5. That's one game behind with five left to play, so no, this does not qualify for the definition of a 'must' game - though I'm sure the networks will hype it as such.

 

[PromisedLand]

Did anyone else notice that we only have two home games left?

We still have other tough games coming up - two West coast games, at Miami where we hardly ever win, and at Buffalo where both teams may be fighting for the playoffs in week 17. Home games are against Pittsburgh and Arizona, both tough opponents.

Let's say we have to go 10-6 to have a reasonable shot. That means we have to go 4-2 the rest of the way, with 4 road games. EVERY game is critical from here on out, but especially AFC games and especially ESPECIALLY AFC East games.

And since the Fins are likely one of the teams we will be competing with for a playoff, and they already BEAT us, we need to win so they won't have the tie-breaker.

 

[ALP]

this is a must win game...

w/ the losses weve had, we cannot afford to count on a wild card berth, b/c it will be taken from us through tiebreakers, and hence we must win the division....

we win out, and hopefully jets lose two more, and we should own second seed

 

[Lansdowne]

Keep in mind that the AFC playoff contenders are going to have to beat each other up along the way.

(10-0) TEN: NYJ, @DET, CLE, @HOU, PIT, @IND
(7-3) PIT: CIN, @NE, DAL, @BAL, @TEN, CLE
(7-3) NYJ: @TEN, DEN, @SF, BUF, @SEA, MIA
(6-4) IND: @SD, CLE, CIN, DET, @JAX, TEN
(6-4) BAL: PHI, @CIN, WAS, PIT, @DAL, JAX
(6-4) MIA: @NE, @STL, @BUF, SF, @KC, @NYJ
(6-4) NE: @MIA, PIT, @SEA, @OAK, ARI, @BUF
(6-4) DEN: OAK, @NYJ, KC, @CAR, BUF, @SD
(5-4) BUF: CLE, @KC, SF, MIA, @NYJ, @DEN, NE
(4-6) SD: IND, ATL, OAK, @KC, @TB, DEN
(4-6) JAX: MIN, @HOU, @CHI, GB, IND, @BAL
(3-6) CLE: @BUF, HOU, IND, @TEN, @PHI, CIN, @PIT

I count that as 20 games where current AFC playoff hopefuls face off against each other from now until the end of the season. Interestingly enough, all 12 of these teams face each other in the final week of the season.

Obviously, some of the teams will filter out soon. The Browns will likely be out of it first. The Chargers will fade from wildcard contention and will need to win their division, which could still happen. And of course, the AFC East will kick the crap out of each other.

 

[Jimke]

I'm scratching my head at this. 10-6 will be good enough.

I expect to see a 9-7 team get in this year.

The 9-7 team might be the AFC West Division winner.

 

[Rob0729]

I like the Pats chances. The Dolphins have barely gotten by two crappy teams in successive weeks. I don't know if they are as good as their current record.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Denver doesn't matter. I just see the division winner coming out of the west.

Next week is pretty much a must win if you can call a game that since it's divisional and afc. after they got embarassed earlier in the season.

this season has been such a disappointment from the standpoint of expecting to go back to the superbowl to finish the job. now we're just worrying on making the playoffs and might not.

Buffalo needs to helps us out down the road.

we need to start blitzing like heck and I hope we get some of these injured players back

 

[Pats726]

I think we need to look at tie breakers with 3 or 4 teams and see who wins in certain situations..THAT is what really stinks..it's possible they could be tied in a group and go home ala 02....A win over the Colts or Jets would have given some seperation...(as the Jets have now...even though they are playing the Titans..) It's possible if the Pats lose in Miami (and Buffalo wins tomorrow...the Pats could be in 4th place in the division..NOT GOOD..
It's a tough year and really unless the win 5 of 6 I think they be on the outside looking in. I know there are many scenarios, but I think most push the Pats out...really a loss is reucing chances by a great deal...

 

[Disco Volante]

Who the hell gave this thread one star?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I fully expect the Pats to beat Miami next week, but to call it a 'must' win or they won't make the playoffs is an over reaction. Even if the Dolphins win, the AFC East would be Jets and Dolphins 7-4, and the Pats 6-5. That's one game behind with five left to play, so no, this does not qualify for the definition of a 'must' game - though I'm sure the networks will hype it as such.

disagree...first of all, i've been telling folks here not to push the panic button since opening day...but the fins play no teams outside the division with a winning record...we've got the cards and the steelers...i don't think it's just hype...and. we're not the only team in the wildcard mix...

i really think we're toast if we lose next week...making the playoffs after a loss would be like drawing an inside straight flush on the river card...possible but not really all that likely