Week 10: Patriots at Colts position by position breakdown

[Patjew]

I assume this is sarcasm........

If it isn't.... You are a lost cause.

Perhaps you should read more and post less.

 

[Patspsycho]

As another poster said, Rushing is our normal kick returner and in light of the injuries, 4th on the CB depth chart. Our depth is Powers(R), Lacey(R), Jennings, Rushing, until Hayden returns in December-ish. I wouldn't expect to see Rushing on the field on defense unless there's more injuries.

Jennings, I believe, is the fastest CB, and was on Moss-duty in '07, can't remember last year. But he's also the weakest corner of the trio coverage-wise. Ideally, I'd like to see Powers on Welker, Lacey & Bullit on Moss, and Bethea deep. If the Pats go 3-wide, put Jennings & Bullit on Moss and put Lacey on the 3rd.

I think you may be selling our rush defense short. I'm going to mess around with some stats, so feel free to not believe what I say but ...
In the Colts/Miami game, the Colts gave up 235 yds on 48 carries, which is 4.9 ypc. In the 7 other games, the Colts have given up, 630 yds, 90 yds per game, and 4.1 ypc. I'm still not quite sure if its improved DT play, or a different defensive philosophy, but this is the best run D the Colts have had in some time, excluding the '06 playoffs.

I'm not sure if any of you were aware of this, but in years past, Freeney/Mathis would take wide-looping arcs around the O-line, in a sort of 'stop the run if you can on the way to the QB' philosophy, making wide running lanes in the gaps they left. I haven't seen that nearly as often this season, and am curious if we'll go that route, focusing on pass-rush or not.

Nice analysis. Appreciate it.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Good post. Here's my analysis:

Patriots offense vs. Colts defense

1. Tom Brady vs. Colts pass defense
Let's assume Brady has time to throw, the Colts don't have the DB's that can keep up with Moss, Welker and Watson.
Advantage: Brady

2. Patriots running backs vs. Colts run defense Faulk's blocking will be crucial in the passing game. In addition, Maroney is going to have to step up and move the chains. I'm confident Maroney will be a big part of their game plan and have a good night.
Advantage: Pats running backs

3. Patriots offensive line vs. Colts front seven
It's obvious that the key match-up on Sunday will be between Vollmer and Freeney. This is a match-up that I'm looking forward in seeing. Out of respect for the Colts D-line, I agree with you and give the advantage to Freeney and Mathis.
Advantage: Colts defensive line

4. Patriots wide receivers and tight ends vs. Colts secondary With the Colts missing Jackson and Sanders, it's no question the advantage goes to the Pats.
Advantage: Pats receiving corps

Colts offense vs. Patriots defense

1. Peyton Manning vs. Patriots pass defense The days of tricking Manning are over. If you want to beat him, you better cause him to make mistakes. The Pats don't have the players to put pressure on him.
Advantage: Manning

2. Colts running backs vs. Patriots run defense The Pats run defense has been on a roller coaster this season. Sometimes they play well and sometimes they get gashed. Other than the Dolphins cheap runs with the "Wildcat offense", the Pats flat out shut down Ronnie Brown in traditional offensive formations. With that said, because of the Colts inability to run the football, the Pats shouldn't have problems with Addai.
Advantage: Patriots run defense

3. Colts offensive line vs. Patriots front seven
I break it down into two categories, run blocking and pass blocking.

Run Blocking: Like the Pats, the Colts offense values lighter, more agile personnel to excel at pass blocking. Since 2008, the Colts have really struggled to run block consistently.
Advantage: Pats D-line

Pass Blocking
Because Manning is so quick with his decisions and has a lighting quick release, it makes it very difficult for any defense to get after him. In addition, the Colts O-line has given up a league low 7 sacks. Finally, the Pats don't have any pass rushing studs to change this trend.
Advantage: Colts offensive line

4. Colts wide receivers and tight ends vs. Patriots secondary
Wayne is almost impossible to cover because of the precise routes he runs and the chemistry he has with Manning. It will be interesting to see who lines up against him. My guess, is Leigh Bodden, who will press him at the line. With that said, Wayne will get his yards, but I think the Pats have the personnel to at least "slow" Dallas Clark down. Lastly, I can see Merriweather take care of Garcon or Collie.
Advantage: Pats Secondary

Coaching
Nobody is better at in-game situations than BB.
Advantage: Belichick

Prediction
The Pats will finish what should've been done without Tom Brady last season and beat the Colts.
Pats 31
Colts 17

 

[Patriot 37]

Good post. Here's my analysis:

Patriots offense vs. Colts defense

1. Tom Brady vs. Colts pass defense
Let's assume Brady has time to throw, the Colts don't have the DB's that can keep up with Moss, Welker and Watson.
Advantage: Brady

2. Patriots running backs vs. Colts run defense Faulk's blocking will be crucial in the passing game. In addition, Maroney is going to have to step up and move the chains. I'm confident Maroney will be a big part of their game plan and have a good night.
Advantage: Pats running backs

3. Patriots offensive line vs. Colts front seven
It's obvious that the key match-up on Sunday will be between Vollmer and Freeney. This is a match-up that I'm looking forward in seeing. Out of respect for the Colts D-line, I agree with you and give the advantage to Freeney and Mathis.
Advantage: Colts defensive line

4. Patriots wide receivers and tight ends vs. Colts secondary With the Colts missing Jackson and Sanders, it's no question the advantage goes to the Pats.
Advantage: Pats receiving corps

Colts offense vs. Patriots defense

1. Peyton Manning vs. Patriots pass defense The days of tricking Manning are over. If you want to beat him, you better cause him to make mistakes. The Pats don't have the players to put pressure on him.
Advantage: Manning

2. Colts running backs vs. Patriots run defense The Pats run defense has been on a roller coaster this season. Sometimes they play well and sometimes they get gashed. Other than the Dolphins cheap runs with the "Wildcat offense", the Pats flat out shut down Ronnie Brown in traditional offensive formations. With that said, because of the Colts inability to run the football, the Pats shouldn't have problems with Addai.
Advantage: Patriots run defense

3. Colts offensive line vs. Patriots front seven
I break it down into two categories, run blocking and pass blocking.

Run Blocking: Like the Pats, the Colts offense values lighter, more agile personnel to excel at pass blocking. Since 2008, the Colts have really struggled to run block consistently.
Advantage: Pats D-line

Pass Blocking
Because Manning is so quick with his decisions and has a lighting quick release, it makes it very difficult for any defense to get after him. In addition, the Colts O-line has given up a league low 7 sacks. Finally, the Pats don't have any pass rushing studs to change this trend.
Advantage: Colts offensive line

4. Colts wide receivers and tight ends vs. Patriots secondary
Wayne is almost impossible to cover because of the precise routes he runs and the chemistry he has with Manning. It will be interesting to see who lines up against him. My guess, is Leigh Bodden, who will press him at the line. With that said, Wayne will get his yards, but I think the Pats have the personnel to at least "slow" Dallas Clark down. Lastly, I can see Merriweather take care of Garcon or Collie.
Advantage: Pats Secondary

Coaching
Nobody is better at in-game situations than BB.
Advantage: Belichick

Prediction
The Pats will finish what should've been done without Tom Brady last season and beat the Colts.
Pats 31
Colts 17

I agree with most of what you said, but a couple of things I disagree.

Pats RB vs Colts Run D
Assuming he don't have Morris, Moroney will get some yards but with their quick DL if 39 hesitates he will get a lot of negative plays. 39 played better last week, but I'll call this even.

Colts RB vs Pats Run
Obviously, our run D is better than there run game but unlike the Mia game we won't (IMO) be in the standard 3-4. Watching Clark abuse Brian Cushing last night on NFL reply I want a S covering him.

I think this is a key part of the game. If we can run nickel or maybe dime w/Banta-Cain and/or Burgess on the field and still contain Addai and Brown, I think we can keep them under 20 and win. If we have to go w/ Thomas and 3 Safety nickel we going having some problems.

Colts WRs TEs vs Pats Secondary

I know Wayne is a little banged up and Collie too (will he play ?) and I love our young DBs, but I think it's crazy to say we have the advantage over 2 Pro Bowlers. This is the best secondary we have had since 2003, and ridiculously deep, I'm think we can play equal to them, but at this point there no way this is an advantage Pats.

Pats win but not by 2 TDs

 

[juxtapoz15]

Great analysis!!! The "real" media should be doing articles like this instead of the usual, "BB is the devil and Dungy (I know he is not the coach now) is a saint garbage."

One thing you could add for future games would be a special teams analysis as well. Just a thought.

 

[Kontradiction]

Great analysis!!! The "real" media should be doing articles like this instead of the usual, "BB is the devil and Dungy (I know he is not the coach now) is a saint garbage."

One thing you could add for future games would be a special teams analysis as well. Just a thought.

Much appreciated. I just considered special teams to be more of a wash since neither team has a Devin Hester type of returner.

 

[workhorse]

Nice job overall. Just a couple little notes. TJ Rushing plays very little defense. His primary role is as a kick returner. Lacey and Powers will be starting at corner with Jennings playing nickle.

The rushing defense hasn't been horrible outside of the Miami game. I still for the life of me can't figure out why they couldn't adjust to the wildcat. If you remove the Miami game the D is allowing 90 rushing a game.

Coaching

1. Bill Belichick vs. Jim Caldwell: Come on, man! Is this even a question?

Advantage: Belichick

Come on. Caldwell is undefeated and Belichick has 88 more losses.



Edit:

That's what I get for replying right away and not reading all the posts. Somebody replies with the same thing before me.

 

[workhorse]

Addai was 17-32 last year against us but he did have a big game in 2007 even discounting the brain dead play we allowed on the reception at the end of the half. The more Addai runs the better for me, it keeps the ball out of the air and I don't think Addai beats us.

Great thread btw.

Addai may have a bigger impact in the passing game than the running game. The past two weeks he has been running more straight ahead, which has been a change, but he has been a good receiver he entire career. (Plus he is a good pass blocker.)

 

[Synovia]

I agree with most of what you said, but a couple of things I disagree.

Pats RB vs Colts Run D
Assuming he don't have Morris, Moroney will get some yards but with their quick DL if 39 hesitates he will get a lot of negative plays. 39 played better last week, but I'll call this even.

Maroney's greatest asset is that he almost never has a negative play. I don't see that changing because of the colts run D.

Colts RB vs Pats Run
Obviously, our run D is better than there run game but unlike the Mia game we won't (IMO) be in the standard 3-4.

We didn't play the 3-4 in Miami. We played everything from a 5-1-5 to a 4-3-4, but I remember very little 3-4.

Colts WRs TEs vs Pats Secondary

I know Wayne is a little banged up and Collie too (will he play ?) and I love our young DBs, but I think it's crazy to say we have the advantage over 2 Pro Bowlers.

Why? We've got 2 Pro Bowlers in our secondary, and they're probably not even the best players there.

 

[workhorse]

Bob, seriously, bring some game with your smack or you make us all look bad.

 

[Synovia]

The rushing defense hasn't been horrible outside of the Miami game. I still for the life of me can't figure out why they couldn't adjust to the wildcat. If you remove the Miami game the D is allowing 90 rushing a game.

Because the wildcat isn't a gimmick. It gives the offense an extra blocker, and its very hard to defend the run when there's more blockers than tacklers.

 

[workhorse]

Because the wildcat isn't a gimmick. It gives the offense an extra blocker, and its very hard to defend the run when there's more blockers than tacklers.

How did you convince Patriot 37 to say that?

 

[BelichickFan]

Addai may have a bigger impact in the passing game than the running game. The past two weeks he has been running more straight ahead, which has been a change, but he has been a good receiver he entire career. (Plus he is a good pass blocker.)

No doubt he's a good receiver, he killed us with that stupid TD two years ago and he has all those little slip screens.

I don't think we can really go after Manning with 3 WR, Clark and Addai all out there to catch little passes. With such a non effectual running game, I'd be playing a 3 man rush, Nickel and a ton of coverage all the way. It'll look bad giving Manning an eternity but we have a lot more speed now for coverage and quick tackles after the catch. I'd go back to the rush 3, drop 13 gameplan (I know, not really 13, just make it look like it).

 

[Patriot 37]

We didn't play the 3-4 in Miami. We played everything from a 5-1-5 to a 4-3-4,

You have no idea what you a talking about ? Did you play golf or soccer in High School ? They were in the 3-4 most of the game (See Mike Riess's Blog 11-9-09, Analysis of Defense snaps).

I liked they way you took the Colt fan's quote and put my name on it that was pretty cool.

 

[workhorse]

No doubt he's a good receiver, he killed us with that stupid TD two years ago and he has all those little slip screens.

I don't think we can really go after Manning with 3 WR, Clark and Addai all out there to catch little passes. With such a non effectual running game, I'd be playing a 3 man rush, Nickel and a ton of coverage all the way. It'll look bad giving Manning an eternity but we have a lot more speed now for coverage and quick tackles after the catch. I'd go back to the rush 3, drop 13 gameplan (I know, not really 13, just make it look like it).

That's why I hope Donald Brown is healthy. If he is you guys won't be able to drop everyone into coverage. He gives us some we haven't had since before Edge blew out his knee, a potential big play every time he touches the ball.

 

[Synovia]

You have no idea what you a talking about ? Did you play golf or soccer in High School ? They were in the 3-4 most of the game (See Mike Riess's Blog 11-9-09, Analysis of Defense snaps).

I liked they way you took the Colt fan's quote and put my name on it that was pretty cool.

Mike Reiss's blog says nothing about what formations they were in.

All he gives is snaps per player, and considering many of the players played multiple positions, you can't infer anything from it.

Burgess and TBC lined up multiple snaps at DE, Wilfork played DE at one point, they had 5 DL at one point.

 

[BradyManny]

Mike Reiss's blog says nothing about what formations they were in.

All he gives is snaps per player, and considering many of the players played multiple positions, you can't infer anything from it.

Burgess and TBC lined up multiple snaps at DE, Wilfork played DE at one point, they had 5 DL at one point.

It's probably semantics, but I would say we were in 3-4 - Wilfork just happened to be lined up at end. Vince & Ty on the ends, Wright in the middle, AD & TBC as OLB with Mayo & Guyton at ILB. I don't know enough about the game and assignments and such to really say what the defining line is. If the guy has his hands down, I call him a DL, if he's standing up, I call him an LB, and for may plays, we had 3 guys with hands down, and 4 guys standing.

On a side note, I did notice one dime package where Jerod Mayo had his hands down in the ground in the middle of the DL.

 

[BradyManny]

BTW Props to Kontradiction for the blog posts so far. I enjoyed it and the one after the Phins game.

 

[Patriot 37]

Mike Reiss's blog says nothing about what formations they were in.

All he gives is snaps per player, and considering many of the players played multiple positions, you can't infer anything from it.

Burgess and TBC lined up multiple snaps at DE, Wilfork played DE at one point, they had 5 DL at one point.

Here is the line from Reiss's Blog I was talking about "Thomas is not part of sub packages, but his snap total reflects how often the Patriots were in their base 3-4 alignment …"

I can't believe I'm explaining what a 3-4 D looks like to a Pats fan they have only been running it for a decade. The OLBs will get on line or close to it so maybe it looks like there are 5 D-lineman.

When Wilfork was lined up head up on the Fins LT (with Fasono ussually on the right side.) TBC is on line but considered on OLB. When Wilfork(or Wright/Pryor) is head up on the left Guard and TBC is on the outside eye of the LT he's considered a DE (this is what they do in most of there nickel and dime packages). Wilfork was head up on Long most of the game certainly on 1st downs. (I think they are on NFL reply tonight you can see what I mean).

 

[Synovia]

Here is the line from Reiss's Blog I was talking about "Thomas is not part of sub packages, but his snap total reflects how often the Patriots were in their base 3-4 alignment …"

Except Thomas WAS in some of the heavier sub packages.

The OLBs will get on line or close to it so maybe it looks like there are 5 D-lineman.

Right, except you get into a gray area when its TBC or Burgess, who half the time have their Hand down. When they're in a 3 point stance, they're Ends, not OLBs.

When Wilfork was lined up head up on the Fins LT (with Fasono ussually on the right side.) TBC is on line but considered on OLB.

Not if hes in a 3-point stance and rushing the passer hes not.