Week 10 at Steelers pre-game analysis, keys, opinions

[jmt57]

I thought I would try to put together some game previews, thoughts, opinions, keys to the game and other pre-game analysis in one place. Please feel free to go ahead and add your own thoughts, stats, columns, or anything else about the game at Pittsburgh here.



For starters, here's the latest on Pittsburgh's injuries:

Six Steelers sit out practice - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Steelers defensive end Brett Keisel (hamstring), guard Chris Kemoeatu, tight end Heath Miller (knee), kicker Jeff Reed (illness), safety Will Allen (illness) and defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) didn't practice Thursday. Keisel returned to action briefly against the Bengals on Monday after missing two games. If he doesn't practice today, he's unlikely to play Sunday night against the Patriots, along with Kemoeatu and Miller. Smith, who has missed the past two games, isn't ready to return.

This is from Thursday:

Kemoeatu questionable with knee, ankle injuries - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

The good news for the Steelers' battered offensive line: an MRI confirmed that knee and ankle injuries suffered by Chris Kemoeatu on the same play last Monday night are not serious.

The bad news for Kemoeatu and the Steelers is that the starting left guard is questionable at best to play Sunday night against the visiting Patriots.

Kemoeatu, who sprained both his knee and ankle when teammate Trai Essex fell on his lower right leg, said he will not try to practice until Friday. If Kemoeatu is not able to go, then he almost will certainly miss Sunday night's game.

"I'm not feeling too good," Kemoeatu said. "It's nothing major. I think it just needs a little rest."

Kemoeatu re-injured the same knee he hurt earlier this season in the Steelers' 27-21 win over the Bengals. If he is unable to play Sunday night, Ramon Foster likely will start in his place.

"I'm just happy it's not as bad as it felt and the MRI looked pretty good on it," Kemoeatu said, "so if it's not ready, we'll take this week and get it right and hopefully come back next week."

And from earlier in the week:

Starks placed on IR; Scott activated | Steelers.com

Steelers offensive tackle Max Starks was lost for the season today when the team placed him on the Reserve/Injured List due to a neck injury suffered in Monday night’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Starks, a seven-year veteran, will require surgery and the team expects him to make a full recovery in time for the 2011 season.

The Steelers replaced Starks on their roster by activating rookie offensive tackle Chris Scott from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List. Scott (6-4, 319) was selected by the Steelers with the team’s first pick in the fifth round (151st overall) out of Tennessee in last April’s NFL Draft. Scott missed all of training camp and the first eight games of the regular season after he injured his foot while working out last summer.

 

[Patspsycho]

Would love to hear Jays52's take on what we'll have on our hands for Sunday night and how we'll game-plan.

 

[jmt57]

Matt Boutwell of the Maine Sports Network talks to a Pittsburgh newspaper about what Steeler fans can expect from the Patriots.

Another view - View From The Press Box

Q: The Patriots win Sunday night if...

A: " They avoid turning the ball over and if they come out with an aggressive offensive game-plan. Play-caller Bill O’Brien would be wise to pick up the tempo on offense by utilizing the no-huddle, which Tom Brady has been successful with this season.

"It would also be helpful for the Patriots’ defense to force some turnovers of their own, or at least not let Ben Roethlisberger convert over 50 percent of his third-down chances."

Peek at the Week: Curtains for Pats in Pittsburgh? - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

The key for them here will be containing Pittsburgh's running game in general and Rashard Mendenhall in particular, then forcing Ben Roethlisberger -- who improves each week -- to carry the offense. I know, the Patriots' pass defense is nothing special, but it's coming around. Besides, another dose of Peyton Hillis-caliber numbers against these guys, and the pass won't matter. The Pats are cooked.

They couldn't beat Cleveland because they couldn't get Hillis and the Browns' offense off the field -- which meant they couldn't get Brady on the field. If you can neutralize Pittsburgh's edge pass rushers and limit the pressure the Steelers put on the quarterback, you can beat their secondary. But tell me who does that.

The Patriots' offensive line better, that's who. Brady can win this game -- heck, he's 5-1 against the Steelers -- but he must have sustained drives and must operate without Pittsburgh's pass rushers in his grill. The Steelers are allowing the fewest points in the NFL and should stonewall the Patriots' rushing game. But Brady? Stay tuned.

Patriots-Steelers is NFL Game of the Week - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

The Steelers enter the game allowing just 2.64 YPA on the ground. It's not only the stingiest run defense of 2010, but also puts Pittsburgh on pace to field the greatest run defense of the Super Bowl Era. The existing record is held by the famed 2000 Ravens (2.69 YPA). The New England offense responds with a ground game that's merely ordinary: their average of 4.12 YPA ranks 15th in the NFL. So the evidence here tells us the Patriots will have trouble establishing a run game.

However, New England's offensive line is among the very best in football at protecting the passer. It surrenders a Negative Pass Play (sack or INT) on just 6.52 percent of drop backs (fifth). The Steelers are not as dominant rushing the passer as they have been in past years. They force a Negative Pass Play on 10.15 percent of drop backs (ninth). It's good, but not great.

Given the expected inability to run the ball, the Patriots need to be in peak form protecting quarterback Tom Brady to have success moving the ball against the league's stingiest defense.

 

[102 Pat]

Nice job jmt57, I completely forgot about Heath Miller being hurt. He always seems to be one of Big Ben's favourite red zone targets.

 

[jmt57]

Would love to hear Jays52's take on what we'll have on our hands for Sunday night and how we'll game-plan.

I agree, I'd be very interested in hearing that myself.



Five things to know about Steelers - Boston.com

Sure, James Harrison and the Steelers' aggressive quartet of linebackers (Lamarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, and the ageless James Farrior) are ferocious in pursuit of the quarterback -- the foursome has 16.5 sacks, 3.5 more than the Patriots have as a team.

But something interesting happens when they don't get to the QB -- the pass defense is often exposed. The Steelers rank 24th in the NFL in pass defense at 240 yards allowed per game. It is imperative that the Patriots' line gives Tom Brady enough to time to find the open receivers against so-so cornerbacks Bryant McFadden and Ike Taylor.

Jeff Howe brings up a lot of other really good points in the column below; this is the best preview I have seen on this game:

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers Ground Attack Will Cause Trouble For Patriots Defense - Scouting Report - NESN.com

Pittsburgh's offensive identity is defined by its ability to run the football and control the game, and third-year running back Rashard Mendenhall has started to develop as one of the league's premier feature backs, a role of which is a dying breed in today's NFL. Mendenhall is fast, elusive, breaks tackles and catches passes, which essentially means he's the complete package.

But the Steelers will remove him from the field on passing downs in favor of Mewelde Moore, who is one of the better third-down backs in the league. Moore, though, is trying to overcome a concussion, and his status is uncertain for the weekend. If Moore can't play, the Patriots might try to test Mendenhall's blitz pickup ability. The Steelers are already weak, having lost both starting tackles -- Willie Colon and Max Starks -- to injury, so the belief is they should be susceptible on the edge. If the Patriots are going to be successful on defense, they absolutely have to take advantage of Pittsburgh's beatable offensive line.

Sometimes, though, the Steelers go away from Mendenhall for curiously long stretches -- similar to the Vikings' strange obsession with forgetting about Adrian Peterson for two or three series at a time -- so if the Patriots sense the Steelers are becoming one-dimensional, that will obviously work in their favor.

 

[jmt57]

Howe also had a Q&A with a Steelers fan blog:

Steelers Vs. Patriots: Behind the Steel Curtain Talks With NESN - Behind the Steel Curtain

2. With the injuries and moving parts at the two tackle spots, is there some concern with the Steelers' offensive line?

BTSC: Yes, there's a huge concern about the state of the offensive line. I don't have the reserach handy, but I don't imagine there's been too many teams in NFL history to make it to the Super Bowl without the services of their top two tackles to start the year. Jonathan Scott, a free agent who arrived in Pittsburgh from Buffalo along with offensive line coach Sean Kugler, will likely start in Starks' absence. One possibility that has been discussed by the fans at least is moving Flozell Adams back to his natural left tackle position. If Adams could anchor that critical spot on the line, the Steelers could then tinker with their multitude of options at right tackle - Jonathan Scott, Tony Hills, rookie Chris Scott, or even Ramon Foster. But the short answer is, yes, there is lots of concern about the line. The one silver lining is that Kugler is experienced dealing with these types of situations, having underwent a similar decimation to his line last season in Buffalo.

Glen Farley: Big Ben adds to Steelers' physical presence - The Quincy Patriot Ledger

Hines Ward – you got it, as physical a wide receiver as there is in the game – has been more of a force since Roethlisberger’s return (12 receptions for 165 yards and one touchdown the first four games; 18 for 210 yards and three TDs in the last four). Ward has extended his streak of consecutive games with a catch to 186, third longest in league history.

Speed burner Mike Wallace (nine receptions for 211 yards and two touchdowns the first four games; 13 catches for 296 yards and three TDs the last four) has had more of an impact as well.

As times, Roethlisberger has the ability to extend a pass play by merely standing his ground when a small quarterback may have gone down.

That ability can become even more of an asset behind a line that is as banged up as the Steelers’ is. At various points during last Monday night’s 27-21 win in Cincinnati, the Steelers, who had only dressed seven offensive linemen for the game, lost center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle), left guard Chris Kemoeatu (knee/ankle) and left tackle Max Starks (neck). Kemoeatu hasn’t participated in practice with the team this week, while Starks was placed on the injured reserve list on Wednesday.

Through it all, though, while Dixon and Batch were sacked a combined nine times in 81 passing attempts, Roethlisberger’s gone down seven times in 109 attempts and just once behind a patchwork offensive line in Cincy.

“He’s a strong quarterback,” said Banta-Cain. “He’s fighting to get the ball off even as he’s getting sacked. He’s trying to complete a pass. So he’s a guy that you’ve really got to get him down and not let him break loose and make a play.”

Big Ben large problem for Patriots - Rich Garven - Worcester Telegram

What the Patriots respect more than anything is Roethlisberger’s ability to keep plays alive.

At 6-foot-5 and 241 pounds, Roethlisberger is a load to bring down. And while he isn’t quick on his feet, he is nimble enough to fend off pressure by moving outside the pocket.

However, Roethlisberger typically doesn’t look to scramble in those situations. Instead, he attempts to buy precious seconds while his receivers work to free themselves.

“He can create,” Patriot linebacker Tully Banta-Cain said. “And he’s got a big arm, so when the receivers get open he can find them.”

So the defense’s objective is to make Roethlisberger uncomfortable in the pocket without letting him wander away and then, ideally, to bring him down. Although he’s been sacked seven times, that strategy is easier said than executed.

Because Roethlisberger is so strong, he’s often able to fend off a defender. That’s led to grumbling that officials ignore the “in the grasp” rule when it comes to Big Ben.

“He can stand in there,” coach Bill Belichick admitted. “You see a lot of plays where he throws the ball with guys hanging on him, hanging on his jersey and his leg and around his waist and everything else (and) he can still rear back there and throw it. So what’s in the grasp and what isn’t, that’s the officials’ call.

“Our job is to try and get him down and that’s a tough job. He’s good and he’s strong in there.”

Playing physical, containing Roethlisberger just some of the keys to a Pats victory | Robert Lee | The Providence Journal

Pulling off an upset of the Steelers on Sunday night at Heinz Field won’t be easy for the Patriots. The team will have to accomplish a lot of things: playing physical football, keeping Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket, containing running back Rashard Mendenhall and avoiding mistakes.


“The underlying tone of the whole thing is playing a physical game,” Patriots offensive lineman Matt Light said. “You have to play physical against these guys. You have to match their intensity. You have to finish every play. I think if you can do that and stay out of all of the situations you want to avoid when you’re playing on the road, which is long yardage, mental errors, penalties and all that stuff then you will do all right. If you do a combination of any of those things, then it’s going to be a long day.”


At 6-foot-5 and 241-pounds, Roethlisberger is a big quarterback who is tough to bring down. He has the ability to keep plays alive by breaking tackles and getting outside the pocket, which means that New England’s defensive backs will have to stay in coverage longer if that happens. If the Patriots can prevent him from getting outside the pocket and extending the play, it will make the job of their secondary that much easier.


The reason the Patriots are tied for the fifth-best third-down percentage (44-percent success rate) on offense is because they’ve typically been able to gain yards on first and second down, which has set them up in third-and-short situations. Their third-down percentage has dropped in recent weeks, but if they can be successful moving the ball on first and second down, it will give them a better shot at converting on third down against a tough Pittsburgh defense.

In addition, the Patriots are at their best when they’re forcing turnovers and taking care of the football. In their six wins, the Patriots have a plus-10 turnover ratio, meaning that they forced a combined 10 more turnovers in those games than they gave up. In their two losses, the Patriots are minus five.

So the plan is all laid out for the Patriots.

As Patriots coach Bill Belichick likes to say, it’s all going to come down to execution.

 

[SVN]

i think the pats should go 5 wide ,spread them out and throw on them from the beginning. Not sure if we have the people to run a 5 wide offense.

 

[jmt57]

i think the pats should go 5 wide ,spread them out and throw on them from the beginning. Not sure if we have the people to run a 5 wide offense.

If nothing else try to get their defense running east-west to slow them down as well? I recall the Pats doing that against the Ravens early with quick sideline passes and an end around.



Fred Taylor sounds like he'll be playing in this column; he talks about running against Pittsburgh's defense: It Is What It Is - Fred Taylor on D&H: New respect for turf toe

Taylor said running backs that are successful against the Steelers don’t dance around before hitting the hole. “With Pittsburgh, you have to be patient,” he said. “Each run can’t be a home run. [Against] certain teams you have to alter your running style and know when to take your shot. You have to be extremely patient with those guys. You have to run physical, downhill, one cut. We’ve always been taught against the Steelers just that one cut — stick your foot in the ground, get three, get four, get three yards. Try to stay away from the negative.

On the Steelers: Coach good at plugging line holes - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Sunday against the Patriots will be the fourth starting line combination in nine games and will include new starting left tackle Jonathan Scott, who started eight games in Buffalo last season.

Max Starks was placed on injured reserve and will have surgery to repair a herniated disc near his neck. Rookie Chris Scott was activated off the physically unable-to-perform list on the last day the Steelers had to do so. Also, Chris Kemoeatu has a sprained MCL and a sprained ankle, did not practice Wednesday and might not play against New England.

Casey Hampton has remained in the game more often when the Steelers switch from their base 3-4 defense to their nickel or dime packages when one lineman comes off the field. In the past, Hampton almost always came off for an extra defensive back while the two ends remained. Recently, one of the ends leaves and Hampton stays. It happened often Monday night in Cincinnati, when the Steelers played more nickel/dime than they have all season. "We're not going to let people dictate to us when Casey plays," Tomlin said. "At times you get the feeling that people put three wideouts on the field to get him off the field, and that's not necessarily going to be the case moving forward."

... All three players who left Monday's game with concussions were back on the practice field after passing tests -- running backs Isaac Redman and Mewelde Moore and safety Will Allen. Defensive end Brett Keisel (hamstring) and tight end Heath Miller (knee) did not practice.

NFL.com news: Week 10 full of great matchups, including Brady-Polamalu - Gil Brandt

Brady is very good at throwing the long ball, especially to his left, but will most likely stick to underneath passes in this game. The Steelers excel at forcing turnovers, and Brady will have to avoid miscues for the Patriots to win.

Polamalau is a team leader in the locker room and on the field. He has very good speed and burst and is consistently around the ball. He lines up all over the field pre-snap, but can't get caught out of position against the clever Brady.

Polamalu is effective in the short zone and is great at breaking on the ball and delivering hits. He's impressive in the box, and is a good tackler. Those talents will be challenged by the Patriots, however, who love to attack on short and intermediate routes with slot receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Polamalu has impressive ball skills and can make some great interceptions. If he can force Brady into some turnovers, the Steelers will have a great chance to win.

Bonus matchup: Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace vs. Patriots cornerback Devin McCourty

The Steelers are 9-0 when Wallace has a touchdown, but McCourty has played well in recent weeks with two interceptions.

 

[TheComeback]

i think the pats should go 5 wide ,spread them out and throw on them from the beginning. Not sure if we have the people to run a 5 wide offense.

Maybe, maybe not. It woud have to be Branch, Welker, Hernandez, Tate, and Edelman. Maybe you throw Gronk in there too.

 

[BradyManny]

Spread, but with 2 TEs and sub-runs with Woodhead. That's where it's at. Gotta find a way to get all 3 TEs on the field at times though - not enough Crump last week, guy is a devastating blocker at times.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Like I said in the other thread this depends alot on the health of Branch and Welker. If we can beat Pittsburgh it's on the underneath quick routes where their strength [pass rush] is nullified and their weakness [corners] can be exploited. The only questions are a) how effective are Branch and Welker right now, and b) can we do well enough in other phases of the offense to keep the defense honest, and not be too predictable with the intermediate passing game. To be honest, I'm not very confident with either of those points for this week, tough matchup for us IMO. Hope I'm wrong though

 

[jmt57]

Update on the Pittsburgh injuries; DE Aaron Smith is officially out.

It Is What It Is - Steelers injury report Friday: Aaron Smith ruled out

Steelers defensive end Aaron Smith will miss his third straight game Sunday night with a triceps injury while another defensive end - Brett Keisel - and left guard Chris Kemoeatu are doubtful with hamstring and knee injuries, respectively.

Steelers Injury Report for Friday:
Did Not Participate
DE Brett Keisel (hamstring) Doubtful
G Chris Kemoeatu (knee/ankle) Doubtful
DE Aaron Smith (triceps) OUT

Full Participation
TE Heath Miller (knee) Probable
RB Mewelde Moore (concussion) Probable
S Will Allen (concussion/illness) Probable
RB Isaac Redman (concussion) Probable

Here's the Pats injury report; safety Jarrad Page is out again.
It Is What It Is - Pats injury report Friday: Tom Brady ‘probable’

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is listed as probable for this Sunday night’s game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Brady was limited for the second straight day in practice after missing Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. Safety Jarrad Page (calf) is the only active player ruled out for this weekend. Defensive lineman Myron Pryor (back) is questionable.

Patriots Injury Report for Friday:
Injured Reserve
K Stephen Gostkowski (thigh) OUT

Did Not Participate
S Jarrad Page (calf) OUT
DL Myron Pryor (back) Questionable

Limited Participation
QB Tom Brady (right shoulder/foot) Probable
DL Mike Wright (groin) Questionable
S Patrick Chung (knee) Questionable
RB Fred Taylor (toe) Questionable
RG Stephen Neal (shoulder) Questionable

A boatload of stats in the following WEEI link; here's a portion of those:
It Is What It Is - Nuggetpalooza’s Patriots Preview: At Pittsburgh

The Steelers lead the league in fewest points allowed (15.4 per game) but 51 percent of those points have come in the fourth quarter or later, easily the highest percentage in the league:

51% - Steelers
44% - Browns
40% - Ravens (does not include Thursday night)
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When the Patriots throw to their wide receivers MORE than 10 yards downfield, they’ve completed just 30 percent of those throws, the lowest percentage in the league:

30.2% - Patriots
31.3% - Lions
33.3% - Chiefs

Having said that, when New England DOES complete those passes, their average yards at the point of the catch (20.1) is fifth highest in the league.

I know what you’re thinking, and you’re wrong: Tom Brady’s completion percentage on those throws (to wide receivers more than 10 yards downfield) has IMPROVED since the Randy Moss trade:

With Moss: 4-for-21 (19%)
Without Moss: 9-for-22 (41%)
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The Steelers are fumbling at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (2.1 percent of touches), while the Patriots have put it on the ground at the league’s third-lowest rate (0.7 percent) despite two critical fumbles last Sunday in Cleveland.

Oh, and Pittsburgh’s defense is tied for the NFL lead with 10 opponent fumble recoveries.
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I’ve mentioned “grinder yards” before. You get that by removing all the big play rushes of 10 or more yards from the sample to see how effective your team is on the short, “smashmouth”, rushing plays. Well, the Patriots average 2.94 yards on those carries (ranked third-highest), while Pittsburgh’s defense allows 2.29 (fifth-best).

On the other side of the coin, the Steelers’ offense averages 2.08 (27th) while the Pats allow an average of 2.98 (30th). So it’s strength vs. strength when the Patriots have the ball and weakness vs. weakness when the Steelers have it.
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The Steelers defense has allowed 58 percent completions on passes more than 10 yards downfield (the worst in the league) but the average yards per catch allowed on those throws (19.3) is the lowest in the league, as is their average YAC allowed on those catches (2.3).

The Patriots’ defense has been very similar on those passes: 56 percent completions (second worst) but 20.2 yards per catch (second lowest) and 3.0 YAC allowed (also second lowest).
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Brady has taken eight sacks on pass plays in the red zone this season, the most in the league. Pittsburgh’s defense has zero such sacks.
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Against blitzes, Brady has thrown one touchdown pass in 89 attempts this season. When there is no blitz, he’s tossed 13 touchdowns (one every 13 attempts). For the record, the Steelers blitz on about 36 percent of opponent pass plays.
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When their opponents are pinned inside their own 20-yard-line, the Steelers’ defense has picked off three passes (second most) AND they’ve sacked the quarterback three times (also second most). Interceptions and sacks account for nearly a quarter of those plays this season against the Steelers.

Note this too: When inside their own 20, Brady and the Patriots have completed just 10-of-22 passes (45 percent), the lowest percentage in the league.

 

[jmt57]

Bruschi's Breakdown: Tedy Bruschi and Mike Reiss break down Sunday's game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN Boston
Patriots' defense vs. Steelers' offense

With all of their different formations -- and especially considering what happened to the Patriots last week in Cleveland -- you're going to see scheme runs from the Steelers: misdirection runs and blocking schemes that aren't just zone blocking or man-on-man coming right at you. They are going to have concepts and try to get angles on you, by sending the running back to the left and the blocking schemes going to the right -- then all of a sudden the running back is going to counterstep to the right. So, from the inside linebacker spot, getting good reads as the play develops is important. You have to stay on your key, not necessarily focusing on the running back at times, but the players up front blocking and what they're doing. That's what this Patriots defense will have to do.

---

They run empty formations and want to spread you out at times. They know who they have at quarterback, there's Ward, and then Wallace, who has really made a mark. He has good size and 4.3 speed -- and looks even faster than that. Once he streaks down the field, he will outrun safeties. Once you see Wallace come off the line and he's building, you have to get back. The passing game is also going to be about competing for the ball. At times, Ben won't care if a guy is covered. If he wants Wallace deep he's going to put it up there and bet on his guy winning. These are the battles the Patriots defensive backs will have to win.

Patriots' offense vs. Steelers' defense

Mike: In watching some of the Steelers' past games, you mentioned that one of the things their inside linebackers do is something called a "cross-fire zone." I asked Patriots guard Stephen Neal about it on Wednesday and he said it will challenge the Patriots' interior offensive linemen to be alert, communicate, and block two very tough players in Farrior and Timmons.

Tedy: You see it when Farrior and Timmons attack the line of scrimmage around the center area. Picture Farrior attacking the line of scrimmage from center Dan Koppen's left and crossing over to Koppen's right. Then you have Timmons crossing behind him and going to the other side, so it's like they are forming an X. You get angles on the offensive blockers and they do it over and over again. They've done this for years and it's something I respect about this defense. They basically say "You know what we're going to do" -- Woodley and Harrison coming off the edge, safety Troy Polamalu coming down in the box, here comes the cross-fire zone -- and it's like they're daring you to stop it.

Sports Tonight: How to attack the Steelers 'D'
Brian Lowe thinks the Steelers' corners are susceptible, and talks about the importance of the tight ends in the passing game.

Sports Tonight: On how to manage Brady, handle Roethlisberger
Gary Tanguay sees Brady's ankle and missing practice as an issue of concern, and talks about the defensive line needing to step up and forcing Roethlisberger to make a mistake. He sees the Pats needing to use speed and schemes in order to win because the straight up the Steelers are a better team. He and Lou Merloni also compare Troy Polamalu and Pat Chung, and their importance to their team's defenses.



Ian Rapoport thinks Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace are two weapons the Patriots will struggle with in the column for Pro Football Weekly.
ProFootballWeekly.com - Five questions with Patriots correspondent Ian Rapoport

2. What did the Browns do to the Patriots' front seven to have such a successful ground game?

Rapoport: It speaks to (Bill) Belichick's influence on (Eric) Mangini. The Browns had two guys on (Vince) Wilfork every time and they always got a body on Jerod Mayo instead of letting him be the free hitter. The Browns said if you're going to beat us, you're going to do it with (Brandon) Spikes and everyone else. The Patriots couldn't do that, and I wouldn't be surprised if you're going to see opponents mimic that.

3. What are teams doing to Wes Welker?

Rapoport: What the Browns did is they double-teamed him essentially every play. A four-yard gain stayed at four yards. Last year those turned into nine- or 15-yard gains. He is without that initial quickness from his knee that is not quite what it was, which limits his yards after the catch. They were jamming him at the line and he avoids that initial push if his knee is better. With (Randy) Moss not here, you have a free defender to put on him.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Patriots-Steelers matchup of the day: Wednesday

Patriots offensive line vs. Steelers linebackers

The Steelers have the best linebacking corps in the league, and the Patriots are well aware of what they are going to face in Sunday night's critical game. ILBs Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior anchor the league's best run defense. OLB James Harrison is having an All-Pro season and giving opposing quarterbacks nightmares.

That is not a good recipe for a Patriots offense that has struggled of late, watching its production decline since the trade of Randy Moss. It will be on the O-line to keep the linebackers out of the backfield and give QB Tom Brady time to throw, and time to breathe.

After a stellar start to the season — two sacks allowed in the first three games — the offensive line struggled, allowing 10 sacks in the next three games, with a majority of those sacks coming in the red zone. The past two games, though, things have improved and Brady has been sacked only once.

If there was a game to get the offense back on track, it would be this one against a formidable foe. But that can only happen if Brady has time to find his receivers, and the onus is on the O-line to have its best game this season.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots Daily gives us a column with a reference to Shane Falco, another with a reference to the river that caught on fire, and also one with an in depth look at six key Steeler players.

First, here's a column by a person that just joined this forum ten hours ago.

Patriots Daily | Matchups Of The Week - Patriots at Steelers | Dan Zeigarnik

3) Rashard Mendenhall
He is a workhorse that can run through or around his opponents. This does not bode well for the Patriots linebackers who were just flattened by a much less-talented Peyton Hillis. Containing Mendenhall is of utmost importance, as he is the lynch-pin of the Steelers attack.

4) 3rd down conversions
The Patriots defense needs to get off the field, and give the offense a chance to put some points on the board. Otherwise the Steelers will just grind out the clock with a well-oiled ground game.

5) Turnover battle
What happened to Rob Gronkowski against the Browns is only forgivable because he is such a promising rookie and those mistakes seem like flukes. The team that wins the turnover battle will most likely win the game.

Patriots Daily | Worry Wart - Game Nine at Steelers | Chris Warner

Up-Tight Ends: Only a 1969 tour director for Lake Cuyahoga could have had a worse day in Ohio than tight end Rob Gronkowski. The rookie offset the efforts of Aaron Hernandez by causing two turnovers. Unlike the lake, we want Gronkowski to catch fire once again, especially with the wide receivers having their problems. This, of course, leads to a perfect segue…

Not So Open-Minded: Um, hey, any receiver not named Welker? Could you, uh, get some space between yourself and a defensive back this week?
Because, like, the Steelers are really good at stopping the run and everything, which means that Tom Brady’s going to have to throw the ball. So, ah, try to run crisp routes and stuff.

You know, if you’re not too busy.

Patriots Daily | First Impressions - Pittsburgh Steelers | Greg Doyle

If physical teams that like to pound the ball are going to be a problem for the Patriots, there is probably no worse team in the NFL to face the right now than Pittsburgh. Maybe. Because perhaps on the other hand, there is no better team to face. If they have a problem with physical, running play, why not just get it out there and see if they’ve corrected it or not versus the best? That’s the test for the Patriots this week. Can they bounce back and handle a team that is good at tough, physical play on both sides of the ball and who wants to pound it at them on defense and is likely licking their chops seeing how they wilted against such play last week? If not, they have other physical teams who’ll try to replicate the Browns going forward such as the Jets, Lions and Dolphins. And many more if they make it to the playoffs.

If the Pats can stand up to Pittsburgh and counterpunch a bit themselves physically, well then, perhaps last week was just an aberration that is now behind them. Teams will have to think twice about what they’re gonna do. This very well could be the pivotal game for the Patriots this season whether they’re going to be a top team or merely a decent team.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots Football Weekly | From the Hart: Prime time Pittsburgh Friday Six-Pack | Andy Hart

2. Passing chances – Though Brady’s health may be a mild concern, I think the Patriots need to throw the ball quite a bit to win in Pittsburgh. That probably means spreading the Steelers out and trying to get good matchups for New England’s varied group of receivers. That obviously entails protecting Brady. It also requires that Wes Welker, Deion Branch, the tight ends and everyone else gets on the same page with Brady. They must also do a better job getting off the line and creating separation than they did in Cleveland. Pittsburgh’s pass defense isn’t great (24th ranked in terms of yards allowed), even with a great pass rush. Troy Polamalu is the best defensive back, but he’s better near the line than being challenged down the field. Though the Patriots receivers and passing attack haven’t been great themselves of late, they must try to make plays against the weakness of the Steelers defense.

3. Mendenhall is ridiculous – Defensively the front seven has to bounce back from the beat-down it took at the hands of Peyton Hillis and the Browns. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo & Co. had been relatively strong against the run early in the season. That needs to return against a banged up Steelers offensive line. The key here may be Pittsburgh rookie center Maurkice Pouncey. He missed some time last week with a lower leg injury. As such, and with Rashard Mendenhall a big challenge, this might be a week we see Wilfork back over his nose tackle spot trying to take advantage of the rookie’s injury or his replacement. Regardless of which guys line up where on either side of the ball, we know Pittsburgh will try to run Mendenhall (702 yards, 4.2 avg., 7 TDs) and the Patriots have to prove they can stop him. The third-year back is a dynamic combination of quickness, speed and power. Physically he’s a different challenge than Hillis, but if New England doesn’t stop him early then the end results could be similar. For an entire team looking to bounce back, no area of the Patriots may be looking to bounce back more than the front seven and the overall run defense.

On the Steelers: Fill-ins on offense know the ropes | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Two different faces will anchor the left side of the Steelers' offensive line Sunday night. But it won't be the blind leading the blind side.

Left tackle Jonathan Scott and left guard Ramon Foster have a lot of experience at the positions they will play against New England.

Scott will start in place of Max Starks, who was placed on injured reserve this week after hurting his neck Monday in the Steelers' 27-21 victory against Cincinnati. Foster will start in place of Chris Kemoeatu, who sprained his knee Monday and did not practice this week.

Scott, an offseason free-agent acquisition from Buffalo, is a four-year veteran who has started 15 games in his career -- eight last season for the Bills.

"He's been getting snaps all along at left and right tackle, and he's played games at both spots," offensive line coach Sean Kugler said. "He's not just being thrown in there."

Scott said blocking for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger reminds him of his college days at Texas when he protected Vince Young. Roethlisberger is a quarterback who can extend plays, Scott said.

"Vince was the same kind of guy. When he buys time, he's looking for the big play. When he goes for the big play, big results happen. It's going to challenge me to fight harder in the pocket," he said.

Foster was signed in 2009 as an undrafted free agent from the University of Tennessee and started four games in Kemoeatu's place last season. Foster believes that starting experience has made him a better player and will help him adjust to his starting role Sunday because "it's not shell shock" when he is put into games, he said.

Steelers' 'D' coming up with big stops - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Surviving early turnovers and coming up with timely defensive stops has been key for the 6-2 Steelers this season.

Last Monday at Cincinnati, the Steelers' defense thwarted the Bengals in the final minute of a 27-21 win. And in the first quarter of road wins against the Titans, Buccaneers and Dolphins, the defense rebuffed early touchdown threats that could have swayed momentum.

After struggling to hold leads in several games last season, the NFL's fourth-ranked defense has gained confidence this season that it can stop teams when it matters most.

"Whether it's the winning drive at the end of the game or at the beginning, we know that with our style of play, (the opposing team) coming away with three points is to our advantage," strong safety Troy Polamalu said.

Steelers' Miller returns to practice, ready to play vs. Patriots - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

• Tight end Heath Miller, who missed the first two days of practice this week because of fluid in his left knee, practiced Friday and pronounced himself ready for Sunday night's game against New England. "It feels good," he said after practice. "I should be ready to go. We planned to give it a test (yesterday). We'll see how it reacts."

• Defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) is out. Defensive end Brett Keisel (hamstring) and guard Chris Kemoeatu (knee/ankle) are doubtful. Keisel and Kemoeatu didn't practice this week.

• Four players who started the opener — Smith, Keisel, Kemoeatu and tackle Max Starks, who was placed on injured reserve this week — will be sidelined against the Patriots. "Those things happen throughout the course of the season," Miller said. "You could walk into any locker room in the league, and I'd be surprised if they've got the same 22 guys starting they had on opening day. It's part of the game."

Gorman: Practice makes perfect for Pats' Ventrone - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Looking for the perfect player to simulate Troy Polamalu in practice, the New England Patriots turned this week to a Pittsburgh native who plays with the same passion and reckless disregard for his body.

"Obviously, I wish I could be out there playing," Ventrone said. "My job is to practice every day and prepare these guys to play. I feel as much a part of the team as anybody.

"Every week is kind of the same, just different teams. The Steelers? That's where I'm from, but it's no different than practicing to prepare for any other team. When my time comes, I'll be ready for it."

When Ross Ventrone gets that chance, it might be indescribable.

But it won't be unbelievable.

Pittsburgh Sports news and schedules - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Neither team has done anything significant against the spread recently, but perhaps the over is the way to go for those that are inclined to risking their money. The Pats have gone over six out of eight times this year, and the Steelers have gone over three out of four times since Roethlisberger returned.


The Philadelphia Inquirer | The Smart Money: This season, underdogs rule

"I'm not sure the Patriots are really as good as their 6-2 record indicates," said Todd Fuhrman, the Caesars Palace sports analyst who said New England was susceptible to an upset last Sunday partly because of its schedule.

While there's no absolute dominant team, the Steelers have remained atop the power rankings of Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, who provide betting odds to casinos.

"After the Steelers, there's a group of four, five, six teams, and that group changes week to week," Seba said. Teams such as Baltimore, New England, and Atlanta have generally been in that second tier.

"Then there's a group of five or six more teams below that," Seba said. "And this season, the separation between each group is smaller than I've ever seen it."

Seba said he can't put his finger on why parity is so pronounced this year, but he notes that betting on favorites - which is how the public usually wagers - has become a tougher proposition.

"I don't think I've ever seen as many backdoor covers as we've had this year," he said.

A backdoor cover occurs when a favorite has built a big enough lead to cover the spread but a late score by an underdog, while not altering the outcome on the scoreboard, allows the 'dog to beat the spread. That happened in the Eagles' win over the Colts Sunday when Philadelphia was a 31/2-point favorite and an Indianapolis touchdown with less than two minutes to play narrowed the final score to 26-24.

Just for fun, I came across this when I was searching for previews:
Matchup analysis: Patriots at Steelers - NFL- NBC Sports

 

[Patspsycho]

Thanks for posting all those analysis, jmt57. Good reading.

 

[PittPatriot]

Like I said in the other thread this depends alot on the health of Branch and Welker. If we can beat Pittsburgh it's on the underneath quick routes where their strength [pass rush] is nullified and their weakness [corners] can be exploited. The only questions are a) how effective are Branch and Welker right now, and b) can we do well enough in other phases of the offense to keep the defense honest, and not be too predictable with the intermediate passing game. To be honest, I'm not very confident with either of those points for this week, tough matchup for us IMO. Hope I'm wrong though

I am still surprised Taylor Price is not in the mix. If there were ever a game for a young guy to break out (remember Branch 2002 opening night) - it would be in a game where we go in with 5 wide and dink and dunk them silly.

 

[jmt57]

Football Gameplan was posting here earlier this season but unfortunately stopped. Here's his preview for the Pats - Steelers game. He wants to see the Pats score on their first drive and use Woodhead's speed, but sees the Steelers matching up better and winning this game.

YouTube - Football Gameplan's 2010 NFL Week 10 Preview (Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots)

 

[jmt57]

Pittsburgh Weather Forecast and Conditions

Right now there's a light rain in Pittsburgh with 60% chance of rain today, 30% chance of rain tonight. Looking at the hourly forecast it looks like the chance of rain during the game is lower, but the rain could affect the field and therefore the way the game is played today. I would think a slower field would benefit the Steelers; the Pats advantage over the Steelers defense is their speed, which could be neutralized by a slower turf. It could also result in both teams going for it on 4th downs rather than attempting a field goal.

 

[jmt57]

On one of the pre-game shows this morning there was an interview with somebody from a Pittsburgh TV or radio station. He was saying that the Steelers much prefer to run the ball to the left rather than the right, but with LT Max Starks and LG Chris Kemoeatu out that could change. On the other side there is past his prime Flozell Adams and career backup Ramon Foster, so he thinks the Steelers will pass the ball much more today than they have in the past.

I was kind of surprised to hear that considering the success that Cleveland had running the ball last week. Even with their injuries I would think Pittsburgh would run the ball until the Pats prove they can stop the run.



Here are some more columns from Pittsburgh newspapers.


A look at the Pats-Steelers history which has to be very painful for Pittsburgh fans to read since it recounts the games with the real reasons why those games were won or lost and no mention of spygate:
On the Steelers: Top spot in the AFC up for grabs


In the eyes of this writer the Patriots now have zero deep game. It's also a bizarrely horrible editing job; the first half of the column is on this week's game and the second half is about last week's game:
Head to head: Steelers S Troy Polamalu vs. Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez

"Hernandez is really talented," said safety Troy Polamalu. "He's a lot like a T.O.," a reference to Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens.

"He's an extra wide receiver for them," LeBeau said. "He's extremely fast for the position he's playing. You would normally have a linebacker on him, but I'm sure that's the reason New England drafted him because that's an advantage for them."

The Steelers might not have to worry about preventing the deep throw to Moss anymore. But they will need to worry about Brady surgically picking apart a secondary that has allowed 60 of their NFL-low 123 points in the fourth quarter.

"It doesn't matter who he has out there," Polamalu said of Brady. "He can bring out the best in each one of his receivers."

Game Nine Matchup: Steelers vs. Patriots

When the Steelers have the ball: The Browns rushed for 230 yards -- 184 by Peyton Hillis -- last week vs. the Patriots, and they did it by making sure they double-teamed Pro Bowl NT Vince Wilfork and always blocked ILB Jerod Mayo, the NFL's leading tackler (103). RB Rashard Mendenhall has seven runs of 20 yards or longer, third best in the league. Two of those came Monday against the Bengals. But the Steelers lost LT Max Starks for the season (neck disc) and will replace him with Jonathan Scott. His job will be to keep DEs Mike Wright (4 sacks) and rookie Brandon Deaderick (2 sacks) off QB Ben Roethlisberger. However, the Patriots have had problems pressuring the pocket -- their 13 sacks are tied for 27th in the AFC -- which leaves their secondary vulnerable to checkdown routes in soft zone coverage. CB Devin McCourty is one of three rookie starters on defense and he will need help over the top to take away deep routes to WR Mike Wallace.

To win, the Patriots must ...

1. Have Brady throw in bunches.
Because of the Steelers' rush defense, he will have to throw often and methodically pick apart a soft secondary.

2. Put some Mayo on their sandwich. The Browns did a good job of blocking the Patriots' inside linebacker, allowing Hillis to run for 184 yards.

3. Get a Man(kins) on Timmons. Any success they have on the ground will be if G Logan Mankins is able to block ILB Lawrence Timmons.

To win, the Steelers must ...

1. Tight-en up. The Patriots might have the best trio of tight ends in the league with Hernandez, Gronkowski and Alge Crumpler.

2. Run, not gun. Roethlisberger has to remain committed to the run and use play-action to exploit a secondary that gives up the underneath stuff.

3. Stick a fork in Vince. Rookie C Maurkice Pouncey has to control Wilfork if the Steelers want to have success on the ground.

Steelers have best run defense ever, so far

They probably will not have defensive end Aaron Smith back for either, and defensive end Brett Keisel will miss his third game in the past four tonight with a hamstring injury. Smith always has been a major factor why the run defense is so consistently good, so it may not hold up in the second half the way it did through eight games. That is why coach Mike Tomlin is holding a roster spot for him, for a possible playoff run.

Said Troy Polamalu, "They're not giving up but they are changing their tact; they're passing to run the ball. That's why you seen a lot of high percentage passes like these 'now' passes that you're seeing. They'd rather throw 'nows' than run against our defense."

With two running backs knocked out of last week's game the Steelers were on the verge of inserting Troy Polamalu at RB.
Cook: Mendenhall gaining yards, team's trust

Mendenhall finished with 22 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown, his seventh of the season. He caught a 17-yard pass on the Steelers' opening possession to set up his 1-yard touchdown for a 7-0 lead. Arians mentioned he also had a couple of explosive blocks on blitz pick-ups.

"We're watching him turn into one of the great ones," Arians said. "He's been everything we expected him to be."

It's nice to think Mendenhall will be great again tonight. The Patriots' defense has earned its No. 29 ranking in the NFL by playing lousy football. Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis gashed the Patriots for 184 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday as the Browns rushed for 230 yards in their shockingly easy 34-14 win.

Mendenhall said he's taking nothing for granted. That doesn't have anything to do with the Steelers trotting out a new left side of their offensive line tonight with Jonathan Scott in for injured Max Starks at tackle and Ramon Foster in for injured Chris Kemoeatu at guard. Like Roethlisberger, Mendenhall said he's comfortable with all of his linemen. (Smart man, Mendenhall.) It has more to do with the adjustments that coach Bill Belichick is expected to make with his defense.

Breaking down Steelers vs. Patriots - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

3 REASON WHY THE STEELERS WILL WIN

1. Rashard Mendenhall — The Patriots are one of the worst in the league in stopping the run, allowing 117 yards per game. Mendenhall has seven touchdowns and more than 700 yards this year.

2. Ike Taylor — Taylor is quietly having a Pro Bowl year from his right cornerback position to the tune of teams looking to the guy who Taylor isn't covering. Tom Brady doesn't shy away from anybody.

3. Jeff Reed — Reed may be struggling with the longer kicks, but has been almost perfect on attempts less than 45 yards. He's 12 of 13 in kicks closer than 45 and could be needed late in a close game.

3 REASONS WHY THE STEELERS WILL LOSE

1. Tom Brady — Brady always does well against the Steelers. He is 5-1 lifetime (including playoffs) and has 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions against the Steelers.

2. Bill Belichick — The Patriots lost to Cleveland last week (34-14), and Belichick doesn't lose back-to-back games very often. Belichick has won 24 of his past 26 games following a loss.

3. Danny Woodhead — Woodhead (5-foot-8, 195 pounds) can play receiver or running back, and those kinds of players can cause fits for a Steelers' defense. He has 232 yards rushing and 174 yards receiving.

Belichick and Brady soaring as NFL couple - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

They have been the common denominators in an epic 10-year run that has seen the Patriots become the first team to win three Super Bowls in four seasons.

And if not for a miraculous catch by the Giants' David Tyree in Super Bowl XLII, Belichick and Brady would have achieved perfection in 2007 — and joined the Steelers' Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw as the only coach-quarterback tandem to win four Lombardi Trophies.

The Patriots are 6-2 this season — tied with the Steelers and Jets for the best record in the AFC — but appear to be more vulnerable than in recent years. Yet, they still have an aura about them thanks largely to Belichick and Brady.

"Any time we've ever had a win against that team was a high point for me, because they're pretty much the benchmark of the NFL and everybody is usually following the those guys," Steelers inside linebacker James Farrior said. "They have a great system, a great coach and any time you have Tom Brady at the helm, you're always going to have a good chance."