Week 1 Preview, Picks ATS (Yours Truly)

[Wide_Receiver]

Hey, guys, I write a column for a site my buddy and I started and I cover the NFL. Here are my week one picks against the spread as well as a preview of each game.

New England Patriots (0-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: Patriots (-7)

This is a match-up that almost always proves to be a close contest. Over the past decade, the Patriots have been in the NFL’s catbird seat while the Dolphins have been mirrored in mediocrity. However, dating back to 2001 when the Patriots run started, these teams have split the season series every year with the exception of 2007 and 2010. Historically, Tom Brady has his worst games in Miami. The question now is, what will the Patriots offense look like this year? The smart money is on a single back, two tight, two wide set mixed in with some three wide sets.

Read the rest here.

Week 1 NFL Picks « The Bleacher Beat

 

[supafly]

Nicely written analysis dude. Good job.

I agree with some of the picks of course, but am somewhat leery of the 'unknowns' re: Dallas/NYJ, DEN/OAK, and Wash/NYG.

I am not sure about the big -7 spread with CLE giving CIN that many pts either. I just can't pull the trigger on CLE minus 7.

Interesting take on DET/TB, you have persuaded me to lean towards the Lions.

Anyway, really nicely written. Hope you continue to post your links every week for those of us who like the picks for 'entertainment purposes.'

 

[Jlaff]

I liked the article as well. Completely in line, aside from the SF/Seattle game.

Just added to the consistently unwavering confidence I feel every weekend. The confidence I feel right up until the first few snaps on Sunday. I swear I got them all right this weekend!

 

[Deus Irae]

Some interesting takes, so I thought I'd respond to some of it...

Tits over Jags

I don't like that line with the Chiefs game. Cassel's got that rib issue, and the Chiefs lost Moeaki for the season already, with no replacement worth anything. I'll go with the Chiefs because it's at Arrowhead, but I don't like it. I'd stay away from this game if this were a real money bet.

I love that you're taking the Rams in that game. I'm picking them, too. My reasoning is different than yours, though, because I think the Rams will pound the ball and then pass to the slot guys, and take advantage of the Eagles' weakness in that area.

I like the Lions, too, because I see the Bucs falling back to Earth this season.

I'll take the 49ers over the 'hawks. I won't trust Seattle's line until it makes me.

I don't like the Giants game, either. Too many Giants injuries and Grossman's capable of moving the ball against that secondary. I'd avoid this one if this were for money, much like the Chiefs game, but I'll take the 'skins and the points here.

Last I heard, Newman's out for the Cowboys, so I'll take the Jets. If Newman is declared in early enough, I might revisit this, but for now it's the Jests.

Raiders over the Broncos

 

[supafly]

Some interesting takes, so I thought I'd respond to some of it...

Tits over Jags

I don't like that line with the Chiefs game. Cassel's got that rib issue, and the Chiefs lost Moeaki for the season already, with no replacement worth anything. I'll go with the Chiefs because it's at Arrowhead, but I don't like it. I'd stay away from this game if this were a real money bet.

I love that you're taking the Rams in that game. I'm picking them, too. My reasoning is different than yours, though, because I think the Rams will pound the ball and then pass to the slot guys, and take advantage of the Eagles' weakness in that area.

I like the Lions, too, because I see the Bucs falling back to Earth this season.

I'll take the 49ers over the 'hawks. I won't trust Seattle's line until it makes me.

I don't like the Giants game, either. Too many Giants injuries and Grossman's capable of moving the ball against that secondary. I'd avoid this one if this were for money, much like the Chiefs game, but I'll take the 'skins and the points here.

Last I heard, Newman's out for the Cowboys, so I'll take the Jets. If Newman is declared in early enough, I might revisit this, but for now it's the Jests.

Raiders over the Broncos

I was thinking the same thing Deus, in regards to the KC/BUF game. I wouldn't be completely shocked if BUF covered the points, for now it seems to be an unknown of sorts. Same thing with the NYG/WAS game. I agree with your thinking here too. I am not even close to being sold on the Giants this year, I think they may take a fall down the ranks. Then again, I don't feel too comfortable with Washington either...after all they are the Redskins

As much as I'll be rooting for DAL to win on Sunday night, I think the Jets win this one too. From what I understood (could be wrong), DAL is having some serious secondary issues with 2 of their top 3 CB's being hurt. I am expecting Jenkins to play, but that leaves a pretty big gap in talent below him.

 

[Water Boy]

Some interesting takes, so I thought I'd respond to some of it...

Tits over Jags

huh huh huh huh huh

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Historically, Tom Brady has his worst games in Miami.

So does Chad Henne. Dolphins went 1-7 @ Miami last year.

What is your basis for that claim. IMO he has faired worse in all of the following cities than MIA.

NOR
CAR
WAS
OAK
BAL
HOU
TEN
ARI
KAN
SDG
CLE
DEN
DET

Simple computation I took the passer rating for away games and did a simple avg. (as opposed to compute the passer rating for the combined stats which would have been more work) and in all of those cities his passer rating average is lower than Miami.

 

[Deus Irae]

So far, the Tits/Jags were a push, I got the Lions game, lost the Rams game, and the Chiefs got crushed.

Weird week so far, with suprising margins of victories in a lot of games.

 

[jmt57]

KC - Buffalo trivia: that was the worst loss by the Chiefs at home in 35 years. Considering KC has had several 2-3-4 win football teams during that time and what kind of teams Buffalo has had over the last decade, that's not a good sign for Haley and KC. I know it's just one game but they didn't look very good in preseason either.


Beyond that I'll pat myself on the back for being right with the Texans>Colts, Lions>Bucs and Bears>Falcons but I'll have to admit I was way off on the Steelers-Ravens, and thought the Rams would at least cover, if not win straight up against the Eagles.

 

[everlong]

Huge game for Ted Ginn.