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We could draft 2-3 DL's in the 1st 100 picks

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mgteich, Jan 14, 2009.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wright is a 2009 free agent.
    Seymour, Wilfork, Green are all in their contract year.
    Even Smith is in his contract year and is scheduled to be a 2010 RFA.
    Of our 6 DL's, Warren will definitely be back in 2010!
    ====================================================
    Q1) How many will be extend or re-sign before the 2009 draft?
    Q2) How many should we expect on the roster in 2010?
    Q3) How many defensive linemen will we need to draft?
    Q4) How serious in the need (compared with value)?
    Q5) Who is available and do you consider them to all-pro material?

    I understand that many think guards and backup OT's are a dime a dozen and can start or contribute in rookie year, and at worst be eaily acquired in free agency. These folks don't worry about Hochstein, Mankins, Neal, Kaczur, Britt and Yates whose contracts are also up in 2008 or 2009. While I believe that drafting one offesnive lineman early is strongly recommended, I am fine if we don't.

    However, I am not confident that any but a Top 10 DL pick should be expected to be able to start. Since I expect no Top 20 pick in 2010, I think that we do need to plan now. Even one 2010 top 10 pick (maybe for Cassel, although surely he will bring any team he plays for to the playoffs) :)
  2. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    I simply disagree. BB prizes linemen and he has them, all under 30 and believe it or not just coming into their primes. Why not worry about the guys whose contract also runs out in 2011, 2012, 2013 etc? ;)

    That is not to say he won't:
    a) pick up a backup NT,
    b) draft a DL if one falls into their lap like Wilfork did.:)
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Based on the availablity of 3-4 DL in this draft, NE will need to focus on re-signing/extending their DL if they want to be competitive in 2010. Now the 2010 class looks to have a stronger pool of potential 3-4 DL, if NE can lock down Vince and at least one of Sey, Jarvis, or Wright, they'll have Smith under an RFA tender, and they can draft one or more DL in 2009-2010 to develop, then it's not so bad.

    While we're on the subject of 3-4 DL: Mark the name Jarron Gilbert and watch for him Saturday in the Shrine game (ESPN2). 6'5" 287, 35 5-8" arms and 10 1-4" hands. Put another 10 lbs of muscle on him, teach him two-gap, and you've got a nice 5-technique DL to develop behind Sey and Jarvis. I expect him to sneak into the first day of the draft.
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Huddle has Gilbert at 111 on their value board as of December 31, and moving up fast. Obviously the Shrine Game, pro dates and combine will determine when he is drafted.
  5. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why worry about them? Because they are unsigned. I AGREE that we have one of the best DL's in the league. We won't if we don't extend our players.

  6. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Even under your scenario, we are not in great shape.

    Let's presume that we extend Wilfork and sign Wright to a long-term deal. This would solidify us for 2009. We would continue to have one of the best DL's in football. We would need to carry an extra roster spot for the developmental rookie. We have had seven DL's most other years, so that isn't an issue.

    We would then need to replace the production of say Green and Seymour with players who will replace them in 2010. That's a tall order.

  7. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    I'm with BOR, priority 1 has to be extending and re-signing our own guys. Preferably, we get that done before the draft so its not a need going in. The problem with drafting a couple of DL this April is that they could end up being superfluous if we do reach an agreement with Wilfork, Seymour & Wright. I trust this team to know what the situation will be, and then either use the draft, or not use the draft, to address DL depending how they see fit. I hope its not a need, I hope the guys are extended/re-signed.
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2009
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The DL should always be a priority. If we can't resign Mike Wright for reasonable $$ then I could see us going after Chris Canty from Dallas in FA. He's 6'6" 305# and has played reasonably for Dallas at 3-4 DE. He would also provide security in case Big Sey walks after 2009.

    I would like to see us restructure Jarvis Green, who has a $5M cap hit and didn't play any near up to it in 2008. If we signed both Wright and Canty I could see us potentially even cutting Green, though that is a long shot.

    I don't see us trading Seymour unless someone throws a first at us - unlikely, but remember that 34 year old Jason Taylor held out last summer and got the Fins a 2nd round pick.

    I could see us drafting a 2nd day developmental pick such as Gilbert, the kid from Stanford whose name I can't remember, etc., but it depends a lot on what happens in FA. I could definitely see us drafting one in the first day next year when a number of good 3-4 ends will be coming out: Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma, likely top 10), Namdukong Suk (Nebraska) and Vince Oghobasse (Duke), among others.
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree with all that you posted. My point if that we don't extend all the players, then we will need to draft a DL.

    Last edited: Jan 14, 2009
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I didn't call it ideal, but it would be the minimum to maintain some level of continuity of talent along the O-line while trying to rebuild through the draft.
  11. mmasterkillah

    mmasterkillah Rookie

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    #11 Jersey

    Ron Brace FTW, and let Wright walk
  12. DocE

    DocE Rookie

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    I highly doubt the Patriots will use 3 top 100 picks on the Dline, and I think 2 is unlikely but not impossible. I agree that there is a need on the Dline, but I don't think it's severe yet (or even in 2010). Absolute worst case secnario is the Patriots have to franchise Wilfork for the 2010 season. The franchise tage for DT's for 2008 was $6,363,000 . In a worst case scenario, the Pats will have Wilfork for 1 year and 6.4-7.1 million dollars or less than Asante made last year. 2/3 rd's of a solid Dline will be Patriots in 2010.

    I'd like to see the Patriots add a top 100 Dlineman, but it's not shaping up to be a great year for 3-4 DL's. Tyson Jackson is the most acclaimned and the opinions on him vary greatly.

    It does seem to be a great year for Offensive Tackles, and I wouldn't be surprised if the best player on the board when the Pats pick in round 1 is an OT.

    I think Mike Wright has somehow gone from underrated (2007 prior to season ending injury) to overrated (2008 offseason) on this board. I'd like to have him back, but he's a rotational guy for the Patriots and never would be an elite starter for them. I'd like him back, but what do you pay for a backup Dl? I'd rather have a starting safety or corner for 3-4 million a year than Mike Wright if that was the choice.
  13. Taxed in Maine

    Taxed in Maine Rookie

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    I can see Wright leaving for a nice contract to be a starter. Openeing one spot.
    I'll be a little more conservative and say one DL in the first 3rds and maybe another late.

    I could actually see the Pats carrying more LBs than usual this year, as Vrabel is coming to the end of his contract and the possible return of Bruschi.

    Six spots for DL and 9 or even 10 for LB.
  14. j00fek

    j00fek Banned

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    2-3, no

    maybe 1-2
  15. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

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    I couldn't have said it better myself..

    Why not target a young DL with one of our first 3 picks and let Wright walk? We'd save a lot more money (wright is probably going to get J Greene money) having a draft pick backup than wright.. Plus if Seymour walks, we have ourselves PLan B..


    Props to the person (if they have it right), that Franchising Wilfork will only cost 6.3 million.
  16. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    But, a lot of people have come through New England who couldn't back up Wilfork, or/and they were unwilling to take on that style of play. I agree Wright is limited at DE, but I would definitely keep Smith and Wright as the NT backups. You're taking a chance on bringing in someone else that just can't do the job. I also doubt Wright could get $4 million anywhere.
  17. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    You don't think Mangini or Pioli would love to have him? I don't know what they'd offer, but probably more than Belichick and a clearer route to a starting job.

    I don't think we need to put any special priority into the DL this draft any more than typical years. If the value is there, take one. I'm all for replacing Wright with LeKevin Smith and replacing Smith with a guy like Dorel Scott. I'm also all for signing Wright. He's also a great special teams player.
  18. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    Seems like there aren't many de's coming out lately that can play a 2-gap
    in our scheme. The de's coming out are built for the 4-3. Too light in the britches
    for us. And, the dt's are all upfield types. I'd love to draft a good one. Not sure
    they are worth picking that high. A possible NG to backup V.Wilfork could be
    T.Taylor - Michigan. He's prob 6'1" 330lb. Benches over 500lbs. May not be an
    every down player. But, could spell Vince and fill in should an injury occur. Doubt
    if he goes before supplemental picks. Taking him at 97(Asante pick) seems like
    the area he should go.
  19. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It seems that folks are willing to have Wright walk and replace him with a top 100 draftee. It would seem that we then should expect decreased production in 2009, unless we get very lucky with our pick. Even if we use our 23rd pick, it seems likely that the player would take a year to develop.

    More props to the poster who noted that we can franchise Wilfork next year.
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You don't think that the situation is severe even in 2010? Without additions our 2010 line would be
    Smith RFA
    Wilfork Fanchisee
    Warren
    ???
    ???
    ???
    I think that there is an issue of concern, given the weakness of the draft at 3-4 DE, and the perception that it takes a year for all but a Top 10 player to learn to Belichick's 3-4 defense.

  21. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Clearly the situation would be severe in the extremely unlikely event that we don't sign or draft anyone. BUT...you've been framing the call for drafting 2-3 DL's in the 1st 100 picks as a pure matter of need, and I don't think it's that simple. After all, the Pats are also scheduled to lose all four OGs, 2 out of 3 proven OLBs, both significant TEs, etc., plus safety is depleted already. And DL isn't the only position that has historically taken time to learn. (Seen any hotshot rookie WRs on this team lately?) So perhaps what this really is is part statement of need, part statement of team-building priorities?
  22. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The needs are there. It is a matter of choosing how to solve the needs. I don't think we can just assume that everyone will be extended. I do think it reasonable to presume that Wilfork will be extended or franchised, and that eithe Seymour or Green will be extended.

    I think that we have to fill what we can in free agency. For example, I don't think it is difficult to find players in free agency to fill holes at deep snapper, punter, fullback, backup an backup guard. We also have no problem finding defensive backfield folks every year.

    Let's address your stated needs/

    OLB
    We are not losing Mayo or Thomas. Vrabel will almost assuredly be extended into 2009. Crable are expected to be part of the future, and perhaps Redd or Robertson will be too. Woods is an RFA and can be kept this year. There is no dire need, but I would like to add a linebacker. This is a WANT, not a need.

    ILB (not mentioned by you)
    This is more of a NEED with Bruschi expected to retire after this season, and have a reduced number of reps this year.

    TE
    Free agent backups and are a dime a dozen. Three backups could easily met the need. We've signed several off the street, even dutring the season.

    OG
    I do believe that we need to draft an OG. HOWEVER, there is a lot to be said for waiting. We have started rookies, free agents and street guards with success.

    WR
    Hotshot rookies? You make my point. The draft is NOT the place for the patriots to find a wide receiver or two. Trades or free agency are the way to go.

    BOTTOM LINE
    The hardest positions for the patriots to fill in free agency or with street free agents are corners and defensive ends. Do you disagree? The quaility of the linebackers will likely suggest drafting a linebacker early.

  23. Box_O_Rocks

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    01/16/09 - EAST-WEST SHRINE STANDOUT: DE/DT Jarron Gilbert, San Jose State: It's fair to say Gilbert was the most impressive athlete on the field this week. His measurements were ridiculous (6-5, 287 pounds, 35 5/8-inch arms, 10 1/4-inch hands), but on the field he looked really fluid and played strong. He's not going to be a run-stuffer inside, but his length and size could be a great fit for 3-4 teams looking for a starting defensive end in the third round - like 2008 East-West participant and current Miami Dolphin Kendall Langford. - Chad Reuter, The SportsXchange, NFLDraftScout

    01/16/09 - EAST-WEST SHRINE STANDOUT: DT Terrence Taylor, Michigan: Like Mitchell, Taylor flashed at times. But overall he was slow to get off blocks from solid, but not dominating, East centers. The defensive line coaches were constantly getting on Taylor to get past his man into the backfield. Occasionally he would use his strength to fill a gap, but most times he was stuck to his block like Velcro. - Chad Reuter, The SportsXchange, NFLDraftScout
  24. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    Regardless of whether we resign Wright, we have a gaping hole at backup NT.

    If we do not resign Wright, we need a DE. Smith is nothing more than a backup at best.

    If BB is prepared to let Seymour walk, he should think about drafting a DE like Jackson of LSU and giving him a year in the system to learn.

    Unfortunately, I do not see a decent 3-4 NT in this draft, unless Mount Cody secretly declared.
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