We CANNOT lose any of our remaining games.

[ivanvamp]

History does not show a lot of #1 seeds advancing to the SB.

Let's just look at it from 2001-2011, or the "Patriots era".

That's 11 seasons, 22 SB participants, 11 champions.

Seeds making the Super Bowl
#1 - 10 (45.5%)
#2 - 5 (22.7%)
#3 - 2 (9.1%)
#4 - 2 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (4.5%)
#6 - 2 (9.1%)

Seeds winning the Super Bowl
#1 - 2 (18.2%)
#2 - 4 (36.4%)
#3 - 1 (9.1%)
#4 - 1 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (9.1%)
#6 - 2 (18.2%)

So the #1 seed has made the Super Bowl 10 out of 22 possible times, by far the best number on the board. So if you want to get to the Super Bowl, the best way to go is as the #1 seed. Once you're there, it's less certain, of course.

 

[ivanvamp]

Let's just look at it from 2001-2011, or the "Patriots era".

That's 11 seasons, 22 SB participants, 11 champions.

Seeds making the Super Bowl
#1 - 10 (45.5%)
#2 - 5 (22.7%)
#3 - 2 (9.1%)
#4 - 2 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (4.5%)
#6 - 2 (9.1%)

Seeds winning the Super Bowl
#1 - 2 (18.2%)
#2 - 4 (36.4%)
#3 - 1 (9.1%)
#4 - 1 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (9.1%)
#6 - 2 (18.2%)

So the #1 seed has made the Super Bowl 10 out of 22 possible times, by far the best number on the board. So if you want to get to the Super Bowl, the best way to go is as the #1 seed. Once you're there, it's less certain, of course.

Expanding on this point, over the past 11 seasons, having a bye (being a #1 or #2 seed) has led to 15 of 22 such teams (68.2%) getting to the Super Bowl.

So yeah, it's REALLY helpful getting a bye.

 

[captain insano]

I hear alot of people saying oh if we lose one of the next 2 then it's not so bad.

Erm well yes it is because,

A) The chances of us going to the SB are HIGHER if we don't go through Houston in Houston

B) Ravens are coming again and lucked out once more by getting Ray Ray back early.

C) The chances of us getting at least a bye are slim if we lose one of the next two.

D) Please don't forget some guy named Peyton and his team have the same record as us and i don't really fancy going to mile high at any point in time come January either.

We are going to have to be the perfect Patriots from here on out, there is a bit less pressure on the Texans because of that cushion but not for us Ravens or the Broncos so we are going to see just how mentally tough we are knowing what i just presented and the team will know.

first round bye home field is all a bunch of overrated crap. none of it matters. see the giants sb runs last year and 07. how did home field work out for green bay last year at 15 and 1. and i could keep going with more examples. its about being healthy at the right time and who is playing better period. i like the pats chances no matter where they have to go. i would rather see the pats healthy with mankins gronk ect ect back playing on the rd as a wild card then with some of them out with the best record. the only thing that matters now is how healthy they are when the playoffs start.

 

[Ring 6]

Let's just look at it from 2001-2011, or the "Patriots era".

That's 11 seasons, 22 SB participants, 11 champions.

Seeds making the Super Bowl
#1 - 10 (45.5%)
#2 - 5 (22.7%)
#3 - 2 (9.1%)
#4 - 2 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (4.5%)
#6 - 2 (9.1%)

Seeds winning the Super Bowl
#1 - 2 (18.2%)
#2 - 4 (36.4%)
#3 - 1 (9.1%)
#4 - 1 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (9.1%)
#6 - 2 (18.2%)

So the #1 seed has made the Super Bowl 10 out of 22 possible times, by far the best number on the board. So if you want to get to the Super Bowl, the best way to go is as the #1 seed. Once you're there, it's less certain, of course.

Thats pretty consistent with what I was expecting.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

We can lose one more game and still get the second seed and a bye. Here's how-
Pats go 3-1
Baltimore 2-2
Denver 3-1 (losing to Baltimore)

Baltimore goes 2-2, with one of those wins over Denver in Baltimore. The Ravens have several tough games and could even go 0-4, but we want them to beat Denver if the Pats lose one game.

That's all we need, 3 wins for the Pats, 2-2 or worse for the Ravens in their 4 tough games, and Denver losing to Baltimore. It's that simple, and that realistic.

Path To Number 1 Seed-
Pats 4-0
Houston 2-2
Baltimore 3-1 or worse
Denver - doesn't matter, we win tie-breaker

Getting the Number 1 Seed would be much more difficult, especially since it would have to entail the Pats beating Houston and winning out, then Houston losing again in one of its two games against Indy or the one against Minn., and Baltimore losing at least one game (that part is going to come to pass anyway). All this could happen, but the scenario above is more likely. Houston isn't about to lose 2 of four when its played so well all year.

 

[resdubwhite]

If you are saying Bill Belichick will sit players out of games and lose them because he thinks that is better than having them play football, we just will not agree. That has never, ever been his MO.

Don't put words in my mouth.

I've already said that it is crazy to play injured players after the play off berth is completed.

I didn't say anywhere about deliberately lose games.

Your words. Not mine.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

we can lose 1 more weather it be houston or 49ers..1st round by doesn't mean an easy road to SB..look at the last few teams to win the SB and what seed they were


But the bye would help if gronk can't play first game which would be huge

 

[Steve102]

first round bye home field is all a bunch of overrated crap. none of it matters. see the giants sb runs last year and 07. how did home field work out for green bay last year at 15 and 1. and i could keep going with more examples. its about being healthy at the right time and who is playing better period. i like the pats chances no matter where they have to go. i would rather see the pats healthy with mankins gronk ect ect back playing on the rd as a wild card then with some of them out with the best record. the only thing that matters now is how healthy they are when the playoffs start.

I don't normally disagree with you, Capt., but I do on this point. I think Ivan has it dialed in.

That's 11 seasons, 22 SB participants, 11 champions.

Seeds making the Super Bowl
#1 - 10 (45.5%)
#2 - 5 (22.7%)
#3 - 2 (9.1%)
#4 - 2 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (4.5%)
#6 - 2 (9.1%)

Seeds winning the Super Bowl
#1 - 2 (18.2%)
#2 - 4 (36.4%)
#3 - 1 (9.1%)
#4 - 1 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (9.1%)
#6 - 2 (18.2%)

So the #1 seed has made the Super Bowl 10 out of 22 possible times, by far the best number on the board. So if you want to get to the Super Bowl, the best way to go is as the #1 seed. Once you're there, it's less certain, of course.

Looks to me the chances of getting there as a 1 or 2 are dramatically higher than the others. None of the others are over 10% chance of getting there. Same as the winners. Sorry, but I want a #2 seed. The numbers are in your favor as a two.

 

[Gumby]

I don't normally disagree with you, Capt., but I do on this point. I think Ivan has it dialed in.


Looks to me the chances of getting there as a 1 or 2 are dramatically higher than the others. None of the others are over 10% chance of getting there. Same as the winners. Sorry, but I want a #2 seed. The numbers are in your favor as a two.

funny how the #2 actually has higher win #s than #1s.

But if you think about it; #1s are going to get the lowest seeded teams. If you have a team that had a crap front half of the season and got hot at the end (2007/11 Giants - 2008 Pats who never got the chance to prove it) they are actually often more dangerous than a 3 seed who might have barely won their div at 9-7 or 10-6.

 

[Fencer]

Houston isn't about to lose 2 of four when its played so well all year.

Unless BB recovers his gameplanning mojo so completely that he establishes a blueprint for beating them.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

houston is getting #1 seed..i just want #2..i think we can get it with 1 more loss as i see us losing 1 more..but i could deff see denver getting it if we slip monday and or miami or 49ers... that would be horrible

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

hypothetical...if we lose monday night..i know #1 is out of question..but is #2 slim or does it depend on ravens who i think will slip or denver...see i think denver will win out and if we lose to say houton.. and denver wins out they get #2 and we may have to play there...glup..

 

[Michigan Dave]

Don't put words in my mouth.

I've already said that it is crazy to play injured players after the play off berth is completed.

I didn't say anywhere about deliberately lose games.

Your words. Not mine.

His words weren't "deliberately lose games." The point is that it is Belichick's MO to put the best team on the field with the desired outcome being winning the football game. Holding back guys who could play--especially when there is something at stake such as desirable playoff positioning--in order to have them healthier at a later time or avoid hypothetical injury doesn't come into play.

 

[goheels22002]

They've locked up their division and guaranteed at least one home playoff game. They can lose all four of their remaining games.

It's all seeding now, and that's important, but not essential.

I agree. It matters less to win these regular season games than to start the playoffs healthy. This Patriots team can beat any team in the playoff picture if at full strength.

 

[Ring 6]

Don't put words in my mouth.

I've already said that it is crazy to play injured players after the play off berth is completed.

I didn't say anywhere about deliberately lose games.

Your words. Not mine.

How are they my words if I didn't say them?
You are saying BB will choose to sit players rather than winning when there is something still at stake, and I am saying he never has. We both know I am 100% correct which seems to be your motivation to change from arguing your point to creating one, attributing it to me, and them saying you didn't say it.
BB will not deliberately lose games.
BB will not sit players who can play when seeding is at stake even though he has locked up a playoff berth.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Let's just look at it from 2001-2011, or the "Patriots era".

That's 11 seasons, 22 SB participants, 11 champions.

Seeds making the Super Bowl
#1 - 10 (45.5%)
#2 - 5 (22.7%)
#3 - 2 (9.1%)
#4 - 2 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (4.5%)
#6 - 2 (9.1%)

Seeds winning the Super Bowl
#1 - 2 (18.2%)
#2 - 4 (36.4%)
#3 - 1 (9.1%)
#4 - 1 (9.1%)
#5 - 1 (9.1%)
#6 - 2 (18.2%)

So the #1 seed has made the Super Bowl 10 out of 22 possible times, by far the best number on the board. So if you want to get to the Super Bowl, the best way to go is as the #1 seed. Once you're there, it's less certain, of course.

We had a thread on this a few weeks back that came to the same conclusion, but you've put the data out much more clearly than we did there. Thanks.

What I find interesting about this is what the two "ends" of the distribution say (assuming that your data is accurate):

A team has a 68% chance (two-thirds +) of going to the SB with a bye, but once those teams get there, they only win it all 54% (or just over half) of the time; the number one seed wins the bling only 18% of the time, even though it gets to the big game nearly half the time. Interesting stuff.

On the other hand, the five and six seeds only have a combined 13% or so chance of going to the SB, but when they get there, they tend to make the most of the opportunity, winning it all 27% of the time.

It's interesting that the number two seed does so well; I wonder why? I have no idea.

Thanks again.

 

[chasa]

Houston is flawed.

Our defense matches up pretty well with them.

Foster is their number one weapon a tough between the tackles runner.

That's our bread and butter right now on D

Wilfork and the Line takes care of foster, Put 2 guys on Johnson.

Then its all about the offense keeping tabs on Watt.

I full expect a big pats win, and people in the media talking about how the sky is falling in texas.

Nailed it.