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We are in a Depression

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Aug 25, 2010.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I'm sure a few of our members will think, "Why is he saying this?" Likes it's bad luck to make such a statement. Of course the reality is, the direction of the economy has nothing to do with what people say. If we don't talk about it, then it can't happen. If we don't talk about dying, maybe we'll live longer! We all wish these things were true, but they're not.

    I now feel strongly that we are in a depression. No one, including (and especially me) is actually qualified to make such a statement at this point in time. But I just did!

    Some people think we not in a depression because the country doesn't "Look" the same as it did during the Great Depression. We don't see people waiting in food lines in every city and town. And that is true. But we do have over 5 million people now on Food Stamps and that my friends is exactly the same thing as food lines. Except they aren't on display outside waiting in lines. Food Stamps "hide" poverty and allow all of us to blend in...but they're still there. Just for comparison sakes, there were just 1 million people on food stamps in 2005.

    But unemployment was around 25% during the Great Depression and we have 10% unemployment.....don't we? No, the REAL unemployment level if measured by the same standard of the 30's is over 16% (maybe well over 16%).

    The reality is, nothing in 2010 would look the same as it did during the 1930's, so we don't judge whether or not we're in a depression by what we "SEE".

    I do know the gov't can't "fix" what is wrong with the economy because the scale of the problem is far too complicated. Back in the 30's our economy was far more dependent upon conditions within our borders. Today, our corporations operate on a world-wide level. There are huge disparities in income across the globe, every country is at a different point in economic development and causal factors vary widely for each country. We can't fix these things with all the money and printers combined.

    So we'll just have to be patient and pray things work themselves out soon.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  2. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

    Mrs.PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Nah, we know exactly why you are saying this.

    And had you proven yourself to be a reliable source of knowledge or someone who consistantly tried to give us his honest opinion I might be tempted to find you believable.

    However, since we all know that is not the case and you have repeatedly assured everyone here that PatriotsReign is not a "real person" but a persona on an internet board, I find nothing you say to be the least bit rooted in reality.
  3. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    #80 Jersey



    ..........zing!


    on keeping things FACTUAL, and not speculative:

    Is the United States Entering Another Period of Economic Depression?

    Some economists point to the housing market bubble burst of 2007 as the start of a prolonged and severe downturn. The sub prime mortgage debacle, coupled with more and more factories turning overseas for cheap labor, has many worried that the United States is entering a dark economic period. Others, however, see the current economic downturn as merely a typical correction in the free market economy. Only time will tell whether this is a bump in the economic road or a major detour.
  4. PatriotsReign

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    No matter what you think of PatriotsReign, the reality is, we may indeed be in a depression. So we won't attempt to make this discussion about me, so let's move on!

    I'd suggest to you muster up the courage and Google "Are we in a depression?" and see how many respected economists think we are or may be.

    BTW...I see you're back to being my #1 responder! Thank you for your allegiance MrsP!!:D
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  5. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I agree with your comments...only time will tell.

    But "speculation" backed by a ton of facts isn't against the rules here last I looked. You gotta admit, millions are wondering whether or not we are in a depression or not. So it's a topic qualified for open discussion.

    There is nothing wrong with discussing it.
  6. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    #80 Jersey

    dude...

    nothing wrong with disciussing it at all...

    but you are CALLING it, not discussing it.

    They keep using the term "Double Dip Recession" instead of a depression. I think thats like calling a hooker and "Escort" ... Nahmean?

    Its not a surprise that we are where we are, supply side economics, mixed with deregulated banks, mixed with low tax rates (REPUBLICAN WET DREAM AGENDA) has proven a failure. Lets also throw in 2 wars at the same time, funded on Chiina's Credit Card!...You are just now seeing what fruit it has to offer, and the tatse it created. Barf Sandwich.

    This Double Dip is what happens when you hand the keys to the store over to a bunch of people who say that the store is the problem. They will eventually bankrupt the store. They were never in the buisness of saving the store in the first place, they told you that from the get go. but you still gave them the keys anyway...(you meaning us...them meaning Republicans obviously)


    now here we are.....double dip...possible depression....and I bet you thnk its Obama's fault...right?
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  7. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    We're not in a depression. The economy really sucks, but a depression it is not.
  8. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Who the $%^##& are you to say we're not....?

    just kiddn' RW.

    If it's not a depression, it will do until one actually comes along.

    At what point would you be willing to consider if we are or not? Just asking....
  9. PatriotsReign

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    Of course I don't think it's Obama's fault. Not even close. Nor do I think it's the fault of the United States. Who's "fault" was the real great depression? Is it always the last person holding the keys? I don't think so.

    I believe economies have cycles. We have recessions and booms and every now and then, we have depressions. However, I'll agree that lack of regulation was/is the cause of this collapse. Just as it was back in 1929.

    In order to shorten a recession that should have happened in 2001, our gov't relaxed and encouraged risky lending. I don't blame that on any particular party because I heard no one screaming about how bad it (The community re-investment act) was.

    Hopefully, we've learned that "Bubbles suck" and never allow them happen again. If and when this turns around, slow & steady growth should be the only goal. And if recessions happen, let them run their course.

    It certainly isn't about democrats vs. republicans.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  10. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    #80 Jersey

    The current economic problems of the planet Earth can be summed up in one word ( This comes from my people who are involved in the market etc..)

    CREDIT.

    Its the single biggest thing screwing with all of us. I read that a few years ago there was twice as much money being traded than actually exited on Earth....

    Houston: we have a clusterfuk!
  11. PatriotsReign

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    I think we just found common ground HD!

    If you asked me if banks and financial world caused this great recession, I would say....ABSOLUTELY, they certainly did!

    That, in my opinion, is where the greatest need for regulation and oversight is necessary. Sadly, our gov't reps are just too damn close to those people. Heck, just look at Geitner and the world he came from!!

    Let me also add that those SOB's go bailed out on our dimes! I'm ready for some old-school anti-monopoloy busting. Too big to fail is a very poor excuse.

    Now you got me all riled up!

    I'd also like to add my opinion on this "what if?" scenario..."If" we are heading into or already in a depression, we MUST let it happen and bottom out naturally.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  12. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Strangely and by coincidence, I happened to "flip by" the Glenn Beck show and what is he saying?

    "We are in a depression folks!" Now I'm not happy that Mr Beck and I agree on this, nor do I even like Glenn Beck, but the fact is, this is now being discussed by many mainstream people, politicians, business leaders and economists.

    Shmessy is prolly just waiting for me to suggest you take you money out of the stock markets...so I won't suggest that!;)
  13. DarrylS

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    If Glen Beck says so it has to be true.. if we were in a depression you would know it and anecdotal information or thinking you are would not be a very good barometer...

    There is no technical definition of a depression, conventionally it is defined as a period featuring severe declines in productivity and investment and particularly high unemployment. During the Great Depression, for example, GDP in the United States dropped 12% between 1929 and 1930 and a further 16% the following year. Likewise, unemployment rose to more than 25% nationwide and higher in some places.

    Things are shytty, but not that shytty.. there are many economists who claim that without the stimulus money a depression may have ensued..
  14. Roland

    Roland Rookie

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    So we are in a depression?

    MOTUS has us right where he wants us.

    Mullah Obama they will call him.

    OBL is in trouble, Barry is doing what OBL could not do.

    Never mind god is great they will chant Obama is great - Obama hu akbar.

    [​IMG]

    YES WE CAN :singing::singing::singing::singing::singing:
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2010
  15. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are two ways out of our economic crisis:
    - Find a way to tax assets to so that we can recoup some of the ill-gotten gains that the abuses of the banks allowed.
    - War! War creates a nationalist spirit that tolerates massive debt, promotes investment directed at destroyed property, and builds up the big military companies. FDR's massive deficit spending helped reduce the impact of the Great Depression, but it wasn't until we invested in WWII that we spent enough to end the Depression.
  16. patsfan13

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    Raising taxes will destroy more jobs. Guaranteed.
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    And there are also many economists who say we are in a depression already.

    Here, I Googled it for you...

    are we in a depression - Google Search
  18. PatriotsReign

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    What about the third option? Just let it happen and wait for it correct itself.

    Specifically, what "Assets" are you referring to Patters?
  19. DarrylS

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    Maybe if people did not cheat on their taxes there would be less of a revenue problem:D.. but dishonesty seems to be the hallmark of many, instead of playing by the rules they interpret them consistent with the situation....
  20. PatsFanInVa

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    In fact, one of the austerity measures recently adopted by Greece has been vigorous enforcement of tax laws. The chisellers strike everywhere, and weaken any national economy.

    Don't much care what you "call" the current downturn, it is what it is. The recent housing numbers prolly mean you can MAYBE call the bottom of housing this coming winter, certainly not now.

    Patters, I am not certain how we'd go about replicating World War II, in terms of war being a tried and true way out of depression. We unfortunately have to fight the wars given to us. You can't put millions of men under arms when you've settled on a tenth the number of combatants as perfectly capable of doing the job. The same is true worldwide. In WWI and WWII, the entire male populations of the industrialized world left. Back home, there were labor shortages where just months ago there had been unemployment. Rosie brought home the riveter's check, while G.I. Joe sent home what he didn't spend. Oh yeah, and then the Greatest Generation gave lavish benefits to all veterans - of course that created personal surpluses all over the country when it came time to come home and nest.

    But back then we didn't have the penny-pinching mentality toward spending on the part of the Federal government combined with refusal to pay taxes.

    Between the time of FDR and the present, the Reaganite "borrow and spend" model has become a popular knee-jerk reaction to the challenge of needing actions on the part of the Federal government, but only raising the money to keep the lights on. Our current historic tax lows illustrate this clearly.

    The private sector was not able to extricate us from the Great Depression. The idiots will rejoice now in saying that FDR's new deal policies had no effect, if you measure the window of 1929-1937. Those who can read will point out they worked from 1929-1936, then were scaled back in deference to "conservatives" in the Administration -- leading to the "depression within a depression" loopback in 1937's numbers. Rightists love to say only war put the Depression to rest, and even were the U.S. to stay out of WWII as a shootin' war, European demand for U.S. goods, as it were, would have been astronomical throughout the period. However, protracted direct stimulus spending in the sense of work projects were already highly effective.

    But the entire preceding paragraph highlights one point on which all "sides" agree:

    Whether it was only War that got us out of Depression, as the rightists claim, or whether FDR's policies were already working in the 1930s, as historians and economists maintain, the private sector did not lead us out of depression -- only into it.

    When a rightist says it was only the war that got us out of the Great Depression, does he imagine that private armies were raised without tax money, and each such private army of a wealthy family trotted down to the local gun/tank/airplane shop, and equipped itself for battle? No, modern war, though it may be futile, is no longer feudal. It is a state enterprise through and through. War IS government spending.

    PR asserts that the "third way" is to let the vaunted private sector work its magic [sic] and pull us out of a depression by dint of "natural" cycles he seems to believe in dogmatically and without evidence. However, to have actual knowledge of such cycles, one would need a world without government action -- starting with a world without war.

    We have no such world, and we have no such history from which to examine a recovery from a depression without massive government spending.

    That being the case, we have no proof, in fact, that the world can emerge from such enormous downturns in the absence of central spenders at the government level. When does consumption "naturally" resume? When people have jobs. When do people get jobs? When consumption resumes.

    When does the magical moment happen?

    As righties delight in telling us, it hasn't happened yet. Unemployment went to 10% and is still at 9.5%. The housing market hit ridiculous lows with the last report -- directly attributable to the ending of the $8K tax credit for first time buyers.

    The way out of this is to stop thinking of "me" and think about "we" when we have these discussions, and we're a long way from that. We still have the attitude floating around that selfishness is the only virtue in life (re-branded "self-reliance," of course,) and we celebrate tax fraud while we simultaneously lambast deficits.

    If some actor in the market breaks the impasse, then employment can rise, put money into pockets, and move the economy back on track. If we allow that actor to be the government, then the government must either raise taxes to pay for these actions, or deficit-spend.

    I'm afraid we've devolved into a politics of primative shamanism, however, where the actual actor on the ground capable of stimulating system-wide recovery, is considered evil; and where the hoped-for (but invisible) "good" force is of the theoretical variety. Either God or some "invisible hand" that is currently flipping us the bird is to be our savior.

    To buttress this superstition, we ignore evidence of the beneficial effect of stimulus (see housing example above,) and dogmatically and without evidence of our own, assert that the stimulus had zero effect. Not a weak effect, mind you - "no" effect.

    The "invisible hand" was not an effective strategy after the Great Depression. On the other hand, both stimulus (in the 1930s) and war (in the 1940s) proved the efficacy of government intervention in markets.

    But as we all know, we have become a nation of "honorable" tax cheats, and harken back to an era when we were taxed without representation -- when in fact our representative democracy is functioning at least as well as it ever did. In fact, with the possibility of a tidal wave of corporate campaign money this cycle, we may look at 2008 as the high water mark of American democracy, before we replaced the Congress with the House of Heirs and the House of Corporations (or the Landsraad and CHOAM, for you Dune fans.)

    If you do not believe the situation to be dire, I would think doing nothing would be the attractive alternative. Those who do believe the situation to be dire, and counsel inaction as the wisest course, frankly baffle me.

    PFnV
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2010

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