Way too early (now right on time) draft board

[BobDigital]

I hate to do too much before the combine but just a quick view of my board. It will be in tiers and not ordered.

Top 16 range (assuming we trade Jimmy G)

Myles Garrett - DE (he won't slip... QBs suck too much so unless we get #1 he is gone)
Jonathan Allen - DE/DT
Derrick Barnett - DE
Carl Lawson - DE (bit small but a baller and the question is can he stay healthy... he has this year)

I don't see a CB or OT or LB I would take here for the Pats. DE to me is where need meets value and fit and I don't like RBs this early. I also did not include Mcdowell cause i don't see that instant win ability you saw with Easley (when healthy) and Donald. I feel like he lacks the tools to be that interior disruption guy and too big to effectively pass rush as a DE. He will be okay but I give him a lower grade than most.

Top 32 range

Jourdan Lewis - CB (the more i see the more i think he won't last till round 2... I know he doesn't fit 1st round arch type but i think of a guy who i was high on like Sherpard who i loved and thought teams would pass on cause he lacks the first round look. We forget scouts are not slaves to prototype sometimes. I would be happy to get Lewis #32 at this point. Best CB in the draft just don't ask him to cover a 6'4 WR.
Marshon Lattimore - CB (If it enters the draft he could be gone in the first 10 picks but teams like different CBs for different reasons. He is my fav outside guy but I'd like to see more film on him. If not one of these 2 guys wait for round 2 for value IMO
Dawuane Smoot - DE (The question here is why not more sacks? He gets in the back field a ton and disrupts a lot though which is very important too)
Takkarist McKinley - DE/OLB (He has risen a lot this year and at the combine will rise up more. FAST with underrated all around pass rush ability)
Charles Harris - DE (good pass rusher but his so-so ability to diagnosis plays and hold the edge concerns me)
Malik Hooker - S (This would be a luxury pick and I would not be a fan but the talent for pick be great)

Again no LB fits us well IMO and no OT who jumps out at me as McGlinchey will not be in this draft and I am not touching Cam Robinson.

I know this board featured 2 positions mostly but I don't see other need spots having a pick worth taking. Safety could be a surprise pick but with McCourty/Chung do we use a first there? I would love a LB but i don't like one for us here. No DT seems like a must take and they have those guys anyone in Brown/Valentine and Branch most likely. Assuming the Pats sign Bennett no TE is needed.

This is just a very odd first round this year for the Pats,

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Nice post and nice list.

Again no LB fits us well IMO and no OT who jumps out at me as McGlinchey will not be in this draft and I am not touching Cam Robinson.

I know this board featured 2 positions mostly but I don't see other need spots having a pick worth taking. Safety could be a surprise pick but with McCourty/Chung do we use a first there? I would love a LB but i don't like one for us here. No DT seems like a must take and they have those guys anyone in Brown/Valentine and Branch most likely. Assuming the Pats sign Bennett no TE is needed.

This is just a very odd first round this year for the Pats,

I think they can always find room for top tier talent. For example, in the trade Garappolo scenario where they get a top 10 pick, they could always find room for Jabrill Peppers if available. Move back to big nickel as the base, and have Chung play an exclusive hybrid linebacker role who could cover running backs on passing plays while still providing solid run support, and let Peppers play the traditional strong safety role and cover the tight ends. And both he and McCourty would have the talent to flip/flop to keep defenses on their toes, similar to what Ty Law and Rodney Harrison did to Manning in the 2003 AFCCG. A new chess piece for the defense. If a top talent who has the attitude and love of the game to play for Belichick is available, you've got to take him and build a scheme to take advantage of it.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I love Humphrey. The kid has so much potential. Saban's system is very difficult and he mastered it extremely young.

If we got a mid round 1st, stay'd put and were going CB Id Humphrey, Sutton, Wilson as of now.

If we keep Butler long term we could have a great duo.

Adams would be great too. That kid and Bill would be scary. Play him at SS/Hybrid.


Brantley could be an option later in the round. We need pressure from the middle in the worst way.

 

[BobDigital]

I love Humphrey. The kid has so much potential. Saban's system is very difficult and he mastered it extremely young.

If we got a mid round 1st, stay'd put and were going CB Id Humphrey, Sutton, Wilson as of now.

If we keep Butler long term we could have a great duo.

Adams would be great too. That kid and Bill would be scary. Play him at SS/Hybrid.


Brantley could be an option later in the round. We need pressure from the middle in the worst way.

My thoughts on your guys and why i didn't include them.

Humphrey/Sutton/Wilson - CB - I like their games and it is in a need spot. However there are 10-15 good CBs in that draft and I don't see them separating themselvs so i didn't give them a high grade. You think differently so that is fine.

Adams - S - I really like Adams as a player the only question i have is how does he get snaps? The Pats have McCourty/Chung. They will be without Harmon but Harmon only plays half the snaps. Even if Adams takes all of those I don't see that as good value for a top 16 player. The idea of course is Adams replaces Chung or you let McCourty walk. Personally I am very happy with Chung's play on the whole. He rarely has bad games anymore and more often than not is a reason the Pats D does well. The upgrade would probably not be huge so i think it be not using your resources the best.

I would like more debate on CBs as i think there will be a lot to talk about of course and i welcome other opinions. The reason i picked out the 2 in particular i did is that they have actually got other Ds to stop throwing to them which is something no other CBs this year have accomplished which is why i respect both. I think they both have less than 15 targets on the year IIRC.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Good points.

I think in Humphrey's case its a matter of pick your poison in terms of who you want to test on that team. Theres so much talent there at times hes going to see action. And hes got beat a lil more than I like but I think he has too much potential. And again mastering Saban's system that young is no easy task. I love the way he blows up screens/bubbles in his direction. He takes it personal and means business. Hes listed at 6'1/200 but looks a little bigger? Love his upside.

Wilson has some technique issues to work out but his size, speed, physical play at the los and ability to stay with his man deep is real. Hes always ready at the los and so are his hands. Hips fly open to allow him to stay loose and burst. And again that secondary is very deep and talented, hes gunna see some action. I think hes had a great year.

LOL work is calling now. Definitely will get this going.

Ill add really quick that S. Jones hasnt been targeted very much either.

 

[Username]

Man, if somehow we could land Garrett or Allen....

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Man, if somehow we could land Garrett or Allen....

It's an appealing thought, for sure, but I truly believe that there are other players in this draft at those positions who could still help us win championships, without requiring the same significant draft capital. Someone like Chris Wormley or Jaleel Johnson, for example, could play either end or tackle depending on our front and scheme, and are solid against the run and productive against the pass. Jaron Jones or Vita Vea could replace Branch if he's done after the suspensions, etc. Numerous talented pass rush specialists should be available in the second and third rounds. They may not have the overall game of Garrett or Allen, but I do believe that they can be excellent complementary parts.

It's nice to dream about a king's ransom for Jimmy, though!

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Just curious how you grade CB tabor of Florida. By all accounts he is a top 15 pick.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Just curious how you grade CB tabor of Florida. By all accounts he is a top 15 pick.

Fwiw I could see him fall out of that range. He might be considered a slot guy bc of his size. I'd be surprised if he's a real 6ft?

Plus this CB class will be the theme of the draft. Obviously we all have our preferences and see different value.

I'm almost done with my offensive rankings and eval's. Defense is next month. Recap overall after see where I am.

Usually stay away from mocks on purpose.

 

[BobDigital]

Updating my board. I will assume Garrett, Allen and Foster are gone before we pick even if we trade way up or trade JG. Also this is only ranked in order within position of each tier. Seperation at CB has become more clear to me the past 2 months as I watched more tape but still great value in the first 2 rounds.

1-16 range top picks

Barnett - DE
Lattimore - CB
Humphrey - CB
Wilson - CB (I go back and forth on Humphrey and Wilson but I think Wilson fits our needs better)
Jones - CB
Davis - WR (I will put him here but I don't want to pick him. Not a need IMO)

17-32

Carlton - DE
Thomas - DE
Harris - DE
Tankersley - CB
Takkarist McKinkely - Edge
TJ Watt - Edge
Cunningham - LB
Davis - LB
Njoku - TE
Howard - TE (if it turns into a need maybe. For now I don't want either. Address D)

33-48

Walker - DE
Lawson - DE
Smoot - DE
Tabor - CB (looked more into off field stuff and dropped him a bit more)
King - CB
Awuzie - CB
Anderson - Edge
McMillan - LB
Budda Baker - FS
Brantley - DT
Lamp - OG/OT

49-64

Lewis - CB
Gareon Conley - CB
Obi Melifonwu - SS
Tedric Thompson - FS/SS (for now. I might drop him I need to see more tape)
Jordan Willis - DE
Everett - TE
J. Johnson - DT
Williams - WR (I don't see what other people see with him. Looks like a very good #2 and that is it).

I don't want to pick a skill offensive player in the first 2 rounds unless huge value falls. I will not even list any RBs in the first 2 rounds as a good value guy seems unlikely to be there till round 3 at least. I will list some WRs and TEs but not many.

 

[manxman2601]

Tedric Thompson love. Nice. But I don't think he's a SS, he's a like for like Harmon replacement.

 

[manxman2601]

No TE love? I would have both Howard and Njoku on my first round board, unless we sign Marty B of course. McCaffrey would also be on my board at 32. Might be too similar to Dion Lewis but I think McCaffrey is worth the exception. Use him as a returner whilst waiting for Lewis' inevitable injury.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Barnett with our first from trading Jimmy, then either Howard/McCaffrey at #32. With our 2nd hopefully a good CB still on the board

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

No TE love? I would have both Howard and Njoku on my first round board, unless we sign Marty B of course. McCaffrey would also be on my board at 32. Might be too similar to Dion Lewis but I think McCaffrey is worth the exception. Use him as a returner whilst waiting for Lewis' inevitable injury.

Blount, Lewis, McCaffrey would be a great group.

 

[manxman2601]

Blount, Lewis, McCaffrey would be a great group.

The obvious roster position for McCaffrey would be Bolden but could he legitimately be used as a slot WR and take Amendola's positi0n on the roster? That would be quite the roster flexibility.

 

[stelfans]

My guys in that 10-15 range are Foster, Solomon and Quincy. If any of the 3 are there and we have a pick I don't think twice.

 

[manxman2601]

My guys in that 10-15 range are Foster, Solomon and Quincy. If any of the 3 are there and we have a pick I don't think twice.

I prefer Thomas to Allen. More explosive, athletic and a touch longer.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Updating my board. I will assume Garrett and Allen are gone before we pick even if we trade way up. Also this is only ranked in order within position of each tier.
1-16 range top picks
Barnett - DE
Lattimore - CB
Humphrey - CB
Wilson - CB (I go back and forth on Humphrey and Wilson but I think
Wilson fits our needs better)
Jones - CB

17-32

Carlton - DE
Thomas - DE
Harris - DE
Tankersley - CB
Takkarist McKinkely - Edge
TJ Watt - Edge
Cunningham - LB
Davis - LB

33-48

Walker - DE
Lawson - DE Would be incredible value in the 2nd
Smoot - DE
Tabor - CB (looked more into off field stuff and dropped him a bit more)
King - CB
Awuzie - CB Yes
Anderson - Edge
McMillan - LB
Budda Baker - FS
Brantley - DT Big Yes
Lamp - OG/OT Big Yes

49-64

Lewis - CB Huge Yes
Obi Melifonwu - SS
Tedric Thompson - SS (for now. I might drop him I need to see more tape)
Jordan Willis - DE
Everett - TE
J. Johnson - DT Yes


I don't think I want any WRs or RBs in the first 2 rounds unless someone falls that is a huge value.

Big YES to Takk, JoJo, Harris, Thomas, Lattimore, Wilson, Jones in that early range.

 

[BobDigital]

No TE love? I would have both Howard and Njoku on my first round board, unless we sign Marty B of course. McCaffrey would also be on my board at 32. Might be too similar to Dion Lewis but I think McCaffrey is worth the exception. Use him as a returner whilst waiting for Lewis' inevitable injury.

I just don't want to use a first round pick on a TE unless we lose both Gronk and Bennett. I just think D is the priority.

I am just not a believer in using a first round pick on a RB. Partly cause they are rarely worth it and partly cause other teams over draft the ones that are so you never get one for value early.

Also I really like Davis at WR and think he will be really good but I'd hate to take a WR when I can take defense and build that unit up for years to come.

Also have added and will add a few more names over time. I don't plan to do another full update till I go to a 3 round board

 

[long distance]

I don't see a CB or OT or LB I would take here for the Pats. DE to me is where need meets value and fit and I don't like RBs this early.

It is surprising to see how Pats fans who admire and observe BB closely still covet splashy EDGE guys. I seriously doubt BB would ever take Garrett or any edge guy at a high 1rd pick let alone #1-3.

Take a franchise QB or trade down - that would happen most of the time. We don't have much of the pattern of course..

Re. Garrett: he was basically non existent against Alabama. Cam Robinson owned him mostly 1-1. OJ Howard helped at times but also owned him 1-1 (and moved the chains as well).

Not that we don't know it from Pats games but here is a nice film on how the extraordinary edge player becomes virtually a non factor.


(There is a nice slow motion of Robinson owning Garrett at 4:38. It happened all day)

As commentator puts it nicely about Garrett “ he has one job and he does it well.“ The problem is one job is not too difficult to take away esp. if you take so much cap space that you can't have good company around you.

On the other hand its not easy to take away the job from QB, OL, versatile DL, CB, S, impact LB, TE.
__

Since taking over BB drafted only one pure edge guy in the first 2 rounds (in 17 drafts!) - Chandler Jones at #21 and while being productive (and spectacular) rusher we know how his story here ended . because his only job (esp. the setting the edge part) was too easily taken away.

He did draft a couple of excellent DL rushers very high - Seymour at #6 and even traded up for Warren at #13 (and recently Easley) but these are versatile 300lb guys with more than one use (rush, stuff, push..).

Here's what he took in those 17 drafts in first two rounds:
10 - DB
7 - DT/DL
5 - LB
4 - WR
3 - TE
3 - OT
2 - IOL
2 - RB
1 - QB

Of course this were mostly not high picks and its always about personalities as well but this is a long enough record to give us some clue.

So if he would actually use such a high pick (id guess he would trade down) I seriously doubt it would be on any pure edge guy. Its just not economical. He can win with Ninkovich's, Long's, Flower's etc. as well.

If he had to use it Id bet on Allen, Solomon Thomas, Hooker or Foster, possibly even Robinson, OJ Howard, Fournette, Peppers or one of the top CBs.