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Warren Buffet's not looking too bright now!

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Nov 20, 2008.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    A month ago or so Warren Buffet invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs. With all the fanfare of a great American investing in the markets to help stem the crash!

    "Wow! If Mr Buffet has that kind of confidence, maybe I'll put my money back in!" was the thinking behind all the publicity.

    Well folks....'ol Warren's not looking too bright now is he?

    I thought it was laughable back then and now we have proof....


    Dow Jones - 7,552:rolleyes:
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  2. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    That was strange. He seemed to be immitating Thomas Lamont in 1929, but Buffet should have been aware of the futility of such action.
  3. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    every single person is looking stupid. who would have thought it would be at 7500?

    now what if you buy today thinking this is the bottom and two months from now it is at 5500?

    at least he's willing to take a risk. over the long haul people believe the economy will be back at 11000 or 12000. i'm very skeptical at that.

    will we ever experience a period of time that was based on so much credit and inflated prices where it was a spending spree? maybe in 75 years just like the great depression became a long distant memory.

    at least he's trying to instill confidence and be patriotic. i can't fault him for that. bill gates on the other hand wants foreigners to get visas so he can get labor versus our own citizens
  4. PatriotsReign

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    I don't fault Buffet as much as I do the media attempt to rally the nation. It was just stupid. No single person is going to change the direction of the markets long-term. I wouldn't be naive enough to call the act "Patriotic"....remember, he has billions in Berkshire-Hathaway that would benefit directly from a market turn-around.

    As far as your comments regarding Gates....If he is trying to get cheaper labor through visa's...then "screw him too". That sounds ridiculous, but somehow I'm not surprised.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2008
  5. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Intelligent investors called this outcome months ago. I have posted Dow 6000 back when we were still in Dow 5-digits. I think Buffet knew he was literally burning money but he is a patriot.

    Your last sentence is completely moronic because as Gates said in his statement, we want to keep the world's smartest people in America. A-students are worth way more than C-students, and the hard reality is America does not have enough A-students. Look in America's graduate schools, half the students at the top schools especially in science and engineering are foreigners. Corporations are going to use the smartest people wherever they are located, and the most talented people create secondary jobs for the less smart around them. By keeping the brightest foreigners out of America, you are basically enriching those countries (India and China). Your thinking is short-sighted and the same faulty reasoning that will reduce America to a second rate power if followed through.
  6. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Your first sentence is oxymoronic. Intelligent investors never "make calls" on the direction of the market. Forecasting the market is voodoo.

    Dow may go to 6000 or it may got to 9000 before the end of the year. Those that think they can see the future of it are full of baloney and themselves. The only ones who make these "calls" in public are doing so to drum up business for their firms - - the TV outlets predicate giving them the free pub on getting TV ratings by making forecasting declarations. No one on Wall Street can tell you when the next plane will hit a building or when a well-run company with a great product will have its stock price go down the toilet because a Steve Jobs may have cancer. It's all voodoo in the short-term.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2008
  7. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    some of you posters just blow my minds. instead of having a mature intelligent debate the words "naive" and "moronic" are injected.
  8. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    I guess our country sucks if we can't find 1000 students that would want jobs from gates and are qualified.

    if this is the case of us being so stupid we're doomed as a country right now
  9. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    I think we've bottomed for now. Watch for big reversal tomorrow. We are oversold. Bottom at 6300 on Dow next year. Peace out.
  10. PatriotsReign

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    As far as "predicting", I'll agree with you. If we could do that, we'd all be retired playing the day-trading game.

    But as far as our short to mid-term future goes, I'd say it's pretty simple to say the market is not going to trend upward for quite a while.

    Given the period of deflation we are entering where everything is shrinking, the market is likely to follow. Is that a guarantee? Of course not, but I'd bet on it.

    And if you were pressed, I'd say you'd put your money on that horse as well.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2008
  11. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Early in my career I, like you, believed that someone "real smart" could predict market direction. Predicting direction in the economy is a different story - - that is more possible to predict. people should be careful to make the distinction. We have had great upswings in stock markets during bad economies, and vice-versa. No one can predict when a low-life will fly a 747 into a building, or a CEO of a well-run business will get caught inside-trading and forced out.

    Your second paragraph has a semi-certitude regarding the stock that I just don't share.
  12. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey


    Who used the word "moronic"?
  13. PatriotsReign

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    Well, I don't know anyone "real smart" personally. I just see the guys on tv who think and act like they are. CNN's Ali Velshi seems like he's one of those who "thinks" he's real smart and yet always seems to be wrong. :confused:

    I'm not going to debate you on a topic you know more about. When I said the markets are not likely to trend upward, I meant on a steady, long-term basis. I think we could easily see the Dow go back to around 8,500 - 9,000, but I also think it would fall again. I know every recession and even the depression saw several mini-bulls.

    I definately agree that the economy is much easier to predict...especially right now. Never have we witnessed so many major economic indicators not only declining, but diving downward. But just like the stock market, the "bottom" is almost impossible to predict and only a fool would bet on that.

    Just an FYI regarding the certitude of my second paragraph, I don't consider a 2-3 month increase in the stock markets an upward trend if it is followed by another big dive. I did not consider the Dow's recovery to 9,500+ after hitting the low 8,000's an "upward trend" either. I consider an upward trend a semi-permanent part of an economic cycle. To me, mini-bulls do not = upward trend. I only count full-fledged bull markets as upward trends. That was my rationale for saying I wouldn't bet on an upward trend anytime soon.

    However, I do realize this may not be accurate in terms of investment advisor or Wall Street speak.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2008
  14. PatriotsReign

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    Since we're down close to 1,000 for the week and almost 450 for today, your prediction is more likely than further decline...but damn, who knows this week?
  15. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    If we can get back to about 8,500 I'm talking the 60% I have left in stocks and getting the hell out. I already have 40% + new contributions out. I stuck it out longer than most but I have no appetite for this right now. I'd like to get out with it a little higher - then if we do hit the mid 6Ks like you're saying I'd put a solid 50% or so back in and hope to get some of my losses back long term. This may not be a good strategy as we're down so much but right now it's the one I'm comfortable with.
  16. PatriotsReign

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    The worst part of down-turns as bad as this one is that regular people like us get hit the most. Almost everything we've worked for all these years is tied up in our retirement funds.

    BF, if you or I were laid off a year ago and we had to tap into our 401k's, we could have dealt with it. But now....well, let's just say it would be very disheartening.
  17. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    What happens if we don't get to 8,500?

    Or, what happens if we do get to 8,500 but then never dip down to the mid 6k's ever again?

    This illustrates my point about folks making these decisions as if they are baking a cake. This ain't no convection oven, people.

    There's an old investment saying "Don't try to catch a falling knife".

    The folks who are strategizing to get in and get out of the market at specific levels have forever shot themselves in the foot.

    Simply have an asset allocation that conforms to your personal risk tolerance and your investment timeframe and rebalance back to your model every six months. Over time, that strategy will help you take advantage of the volatility.

    It's easy. The personal psychology is the hard part.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2008
  18. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    If we don't get to 8,500 I stay the course. If we get there and don't dip down then I would be better off as is. But given my situation this is my plan to be more conservative unless we have another leg down that makes it too tempting. I'm not claiming this is THE PLAN that will work, just the plan that I am comfortable with. I'll eventually get a piece back in the market but things are just too nuts right now.
  19. wistahpatsfan

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    #75 Jersey

    Are you NUTS?

    The hot chick on TV just said that I should stay in the market at this point. Getting out now would be the worst thing I could do! (And she's the hottest money chick of them all!)

    JEEZ! Where are you getting your advice?:confused:
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2008
  20. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    :)

    Like I said, with no significant change I'm just going to stay as I am. But if we have a 750 point, or so, rally, I would probably take a little "profit" (more like less loss) and sit out because every rally we have ends up being a bear market rally and we lose all the gains again within days. Long term you should probably be in but while the market trends down I'm happy being out then getting back in at an even lower price.

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