Walker signs $40M extension with Broncos

[broadwayjoe]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/football/nfl/05/10/bc.fbn.broncos.walker.ap/index.html

 

[BelichickFan]

Even though I have no idea how we'll use our cap space, I'm glad we didn't put that much into Walker. Maybe we can overpay Branch, Koppen, Graham and Samuel just a little.

 

[stcjones]

really..........

Even though I have no idea how we'll use our cap space, I'm glad we didn't put that much into Walker. Maybe we can overpay Branch, Koppen, Graham and Samuel just a little.

This guy better produce BIG TIME for that kind of cash......wow.....I don't think he is worth all that.........

 

[Pats726]

Walker was a thought and no more than that coming here..yes..he had better or Shannie will be in bif time trouble...that's a load of dough..and if his knee doesn't respond?? Big big gamble...

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Walker's deal isn't that good...

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

POSTED 9:07 p.m. EDT, May 9, 2006; UPDATED 10:15 a.m. EDT, May 10, 2006

WALKER'S DEAL NOT REALLY BETTER THAN OWENS'

With news that the Broncos and receiver Javon Walker are close to finalizing a new deal, we've been asked by several readers whether Walker got a better deal than Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens.

A year ago, both Walker and Owens were mired in contract disputes with the Packers and Eagles, respectively. Both were represented by agent Drew Rosenhaus. Walker has since retained Kennard McGuire. Now, they both have gotten their new deals.

In our assessment, Walker's deal isn't necessarily better than Owens' contract.

See, Owens gets $10 million in 2006, regardless of whether he's with the Cowboys in 2007. Walker gets only $2.15 million for 2006, with no guarantee beyond this season.

But if the Broncos pick up Walker's $10 million option bonus in 2007, he's likely to make $25 million over the next three years.

And the exact value of Owens' deal is $25 million over three years. However, the deal is structured to give the Cowboys the ability to walk away on an annual basis, making his package a series of one-year contracts.

But after 2008, Owens will be on the open market again, at age 35. Walker, after the three-year, $25 million portion of his contract expires, will get $13 to $15 million over the final two seasons (2010 and 2011). If the salary cap continues to skyrocket, Walker might be getting disgruntled all over again with only (only?) $6.5 million to $7.5 million a year.

Don't forget the tax angle. T.O. pays no state income taxes in Texas. Walker won't be so lucky in Colorado.

Bottom line -- neither deal is obviously better than the other. With the ability of each guy to maximize his payout is tied directly to his ability to perform and stay healthy, there's a chance that either or both of them will be cruising for another payday next year.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Walker's deal isn't that good...

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

I think the fact that Walker was willing to take what could be a one year deal indicates his confidence that he is fully healed.

Aside from the first year, a 3 year $25 mil deal strikes me as better than "not good" - I think that winds up being the parameter Branch looks at, as he doesn't come with any injury or attitude baggage either, and is just slightly less productive than Walker

Both Walker and Owens' contracts seem to be well suited to the players they pertain to - Branch's likewise will be well tailored to his situation

 

[BelichickFan]

Aside from the first year, a 3 year $25 mil deal strikes me as better than "not good" - I think that winds up being the parameter Branch looks at, as he doesn't come with any injury or attitude baggage either, and is just slightly less productive than Walker

That's $8.3M per year - no way I see us giving that much to Branch. I know someone will ask what I think we would pay - I don't know, but I don't see it being close to that.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

I think the fact that Walker was willing to take what could be a one year deal indicates his confidence that he is fully healed. Aside from the first year, a 3 year $25 mil deal strikes me as better than "not good" - I think that winds up being the parameter Branch looks at, as he doesn't come with any injury or attitude baggage either, and is just slightly less productive than Walker

It's a series of one year deals with little money guaranteed. Walker didn't have any choice. It was either take what Denver offered or play out the final year of his rookie contract. If Denver is happy with Javon, they will convert his roster bonus into a signing bonus in order to spread the cap hit over 5 years in a new contract. I doubt they could swallow a $10 mil cap hit in '07. If Javon has a bad year, the Broncos will cut him loose without a significant cap hit and Walker hits the FA market. Same would happen if he has a good year and he and the team can't agree on a new deal. In that case, Javon hits the market from a position of strength.

How is Branch slightly less productive than Walker?

Branch Regular Season Stats

            |        Receiving        |
---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+----------------------+----
| 2002 nwe |  13 |    43    489  11.4    2 |
| 2003 nwe |  15 |    57    803  14.1    3 |
| 2004 nwe |   9 |    35    454  13.0    4 |
| 2005 nwe |  16 |    78    998  12.8    5 |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |  53 |   213   2744  12.9   14 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

Branch Postseason Stats

            |        Receiving        |
---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+----------------------+----
| 2003 nwe |   3 |    15    176  11.7    1 |
| 2004 nwe |   3 |    16    264  16.5    1 |
| 2005 nwe |   2 |    10    189  18.9    0 |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |   8 |    41    629  15.3    2 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

Branch: TOTAL (RS and Playoffs)

---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |  61 |   254   3373  13.3   16 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

Walker Regular Season Stats

            |        Receiving        |
---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+----------------------+----
| 2002 gnb |  15 |    23    319  13.9    1 |
| 2003 gnb |  16 |    41    716  17.5    9 |
| 2004 gnb |  16 |    89   1382  15.5   12 |
| 2005 gnb |   1 |     4     27   6.8    0 |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |  48 |   157   2444  15.6   22 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

Walker Postseason Stats

            |        Receiving        |
---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----+----------------------+----
| 2002 gnb |   1 |     5    104  20.8    0 |
| 2003 gnb |   2 |     6    155  25.8    0 |
| 2004 gnb |   1 |     2     27  13.5    0 |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |   4 |    13    286  22.0    0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

Walker: TOTAL (RS and Playoffs)

---+-------------------------+-----------+---
| Year  TM |   G |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |
+----------+-----------------------------+---
|  TOTAL   |  52 |   170   2730  16.1   22 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+

REC/G (RS and Playoffs)
Branch: 4.2
Walker: 3.3

Rec Yd/G
Branch: 55.3
Walker: 52.5

Rec TD/G
Branch: 0.262
Walker: 0.423

The only areas where Walker dominates are rec TDs/game and YPR. However, when you consider the disparity of the level of competition between the 2 WRs, Branch clearly stands out. Moreover, I was only using conventional stats rather than performance metrics. In KC Joyner's Scientific Football: 2005 Including playoffs, Branch led all NFL WRs in Overall Comp% and was near the top in C% in Medium, Deep, and Short pass depth levels.

Both Walker and Owens' contracts seem to be well suited to the players they pertain to - Branch's likewise will be well tailored to his situation

I'm guessing Branch's agent will try to get a similar contract to those of Reggie Wayne and Antwan Randle El with the floor being a bit more than David Givens' deal. If Branch decides to take a chance by playing out his contract, and has a big year in 2006, he'll be the hottest FA WR on the 2007 FA market.

 

[JoeSixPat]

How is Branch slightly less productive than Walker?

I know by your Member name you'rew a big Branch fan, as am I - but when you come right down to it, both Branch and Walker's careers break down to this - the both spent a few seasons posting #2 WR numbers, then both jumped to the next level for one, and only one season

In Branch's case he posted 78 catches and in Walker's case a slightly more impressive 89 catches

These guys are both counting on contracts based upon future expectations - not the past - frankly 78 catches for Branch is about the production I'm expecting from him - consistently in the 70s

Walker, given his size in particular, is someone I think most GMs would expect to see at 90+ receptions

It'd be nice fi all contracts were determinedbased only on past performance - that's not the case here