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Very Eenteresting GOP self-destruct sequence

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatsFanInVa, Dec 28, 2011.

  1. PatsFanInVa

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    We aren't even close to the general election, but I'm finding one aspect of the primaries fascinating.

    The Republican "mainstream" has taken extreme enough positions in the last 3 years, that the process of finding a candidate has a whole new energy.

    Primary candidates always take shots at each other to satisfy the base. But the velocity of departure from the old Republican "center" is so high that nobody can be pure enough to get the nomination. Only the truly batsh1t crazy candidates can survive that aspect of the primary, and those guys, well, they say and do batsh1t crazy things (which are easily sniffed out and exposed.)

    There are just too many things that can be cardinal sins for these guys. They have to contend w/the usual things: did you say something racist? Did you sleep with the wrong women?

    But then they also have a whole new way to be disqualified: Did you once say something reasonable about health care? Were you too "moderate"?

    There's a very slim sliver of real life experience you can have lived and be "good enough" for the Republican base this year. And they're tearing each other limb from limb.

    They could well pull it together and beat Obama, but thus far the GOP primary dynamic strikes me as sui generis in the races I've observed.

    PFnV
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2011
  2. PatsFanInVa

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    This week: proof that newts are related to crocodiles (at the tear ducts)... Ron explains and explains and explains... somehow continues to slide... and for the first time since people tried to google him, Rick Santorum "surges from behind." Bachmann defections to Paul ("I like his sinking ship better,") put it all together, and what do you get? Romney, and he knows it... unless Sarah Palin decides ooooh well yanno, with a field this weak, you betcha my country needs me... unless she decides to heroically quit in the middle of the campaign...

    A lot can happen in a year. But I'm not sure enough can happen in a positive way for the GOP to take the white house.

    Worse yet, they've got a clearer and clearer Hobson's choice in Congress: If they continue to obstruct, they won't escape in November. If they don't, the economy will improve at a better pace, screwing up their "Wahhhh the economy didn't get better" platform.

    A year out... the economy is improving, economic confidence is improving, and this is your Republican party.

    Wish they'd move the election up - it's looking pretty good right about now. :)

    PFnV
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Economic conditions are still too fragile to declare, "the economy is improving". On the surface, it may appear to be improving, but I don't believe it has. Our unemployment rate hasn't changed for one. Oh, I know, the official numbers say different, but that's only because they stopped counting people.

    Foreclosures are increasing once again and it will take several years to clear that mess. I heard last night to expect home values to decline another 5-10% in 2012 on average. So more people aren't working and homes really aren't being built other than multiple family dwellings.

    And since the US economy is not self-sustaining, the pending deep recessions in Europe, China and Australia in 2012 aren't going to help.
  4. patsfan13

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    Whistling past the graveyard....
  5. mcgraw_wv

    mcgraw_wv Rookie

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    Paul gained in every poll which was released this past week.

    The CNN poll, which showed Romney winning, still showed an increase for Paul and CNN doesn't ask independants or Democrats which Are allowed to caucus, so they are polling in reality.

    Ron Paul also moved up 2 points in NH in nearly all polls.

    I know its your opinion, but Paul is still building.

    Also, check out the stories about Kelly clarckson. She came out FOR Ron Paul, recieved a lot of hate, then the Ron Paul Army swung into action, her new record is up 833% in sales and is now #1 or #3 on Amazon, can't remember.

    That's powerful, that's an organized minority passionate about people who are passionate about liberty. This movement will live on!
  6. chicowalker

    chicowalker On the Roster

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    kind of like you pretending any of these bozos but Romney has a chance of beating Obama?

    or have you given up on that after having your convictions shown to be empty through your unwillingness to put anything behind them?

    (btw, who's your man now, since Cain fell apart?)
  7. scout

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    #15 Jersey

    Talk about denial. It's kind of funny watching these chain of events. The last poll I saw was Romney leading Paul by 3%. This gives Paul supporters some ray of hope, while most people see it as "anybody but Romney".
  8. Ilikehappyppl

    Ilikehappyppl Rookie

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    Man, I sure hope he get's the nod! I love that people are starting to wake up and starting to look and Paul as a real candidate! Like i've said before I don't agree with everything he says but the stuff I do agree with he's spot on.:rocker:

    I think Romney is a right-wing version of Obama so I really hope he doesn't get the nod cause he'll lose and prob loose bad....Don't want another 4 years of lies and crappy politics....I swear its just like having a 3rd term of Bush atm....its sucks!
  9. PatsFanInVa

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    Our economy's nowhere near out of the woods in terms of employment, however our indicators have been on the rise all year, particularly recently.

    The comical part is, this is in the face of huge reductions in the numbers of state and local employees -- the job growth is all happening in the private sector. Part of the goal of public sector cuts is to artificially depress the economy further. But it hasn't been enough to keep America down, where the GOP wants America for electoral (and cheap labor) purposes.

    I don't expect -- nor may it be the wisest thing to even hope -- that we're going to zoom through the ceiling in '12. I do think that barring a major event like an 08-style collapse in Europe, or possibly an equivalent debacle in China (though I think it's unlikely that would actually have the same effect on our recovery,) we'll be well under 8% and stably so by November. If it goes under 7%, fuggedaboutit... 4 more years.

    Vacant housing is the lowest it's been since before the crash, PR. I don't think we've nearly worked through it to the point that a lot of new construction is about to pop up, but it will come.

    The winner of the next election will almost certainly preside over some very good news in housing, all doomsaying aside. The difficulty is winning the damn thing, of course.

    PFnV
  10. Gainzo

    Gainzo Rookie

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    #11 Jersey

    I have been looking to change jobs since January (2011). I have had a few phone interviews since then but my phone and email have blown up over the last couple of months. I'm getting calls/emails from recruiters and company's.

    The economy is back on track and that scares the crap out of the GOP.
  11. scout

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    #15 Jersey

    I was surfing with the clicker the other day and came across a panel who each made a prediction for the coming year. Almost everyone one of them on this news channel said that there would be either lower unemployment (8.5 or just under 9.0) or that the economy would be on the rise. Kind of surprising for FOX News.
  12. PatsFanInVa

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    :confused: We're already at 8.6%....

    National Employment Monthly Update

    Never mind, it's Fox... I suppose they're trying to start on the pre-scuse messaging war on how it should have been lower than that by November 2012.
  13. Titus Pullo

    Titus Pullo Banned

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    It is baffling to me how anyone - taking an honest look at the overall picture - can conclude that the economic signs are promising.

    Wow... times 10.

    The global economy is contracting, not expanding. The U.S. is not exempt from that equation.
  14. PatsFanInVa

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    What's your metric for the global economy "contracting"? That it fits well with a theory?

    2010 and 2011 were both growth years for the world at large. That's just the facts. Don't talk to me about an "overall picture" without a statistical picture.

    UN DESA | DPAD | World Economic Situation and Prospects

    A contracting economy means negative growth, not decelerating positive growth.

    So where's all this puzzlement coming from? You might not like the pace of growth -- the increase in the increase, as it were -- but the world economy is not contracting, according to the empirical data.

    PFnV
  15. PatriotsReign

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    All economic growth metrics need to have inflation factored in. So if your facts are based upon "Real" growth, then you're correct. If it doesn't, then it's not accurate.

    Also, relative to US economic forecasts, we need to look at nations we do trade with. So if 20 nations generate 90% of our exports, the relevant "world economic growth" factor would be the total GDP's of those nations. It's not as simple as switching which nations we export to.

    Many/most companies don't export to any and all nations. For example, my company only exports to a couple of Asian nations and Iran. That is the extent of our export universe. We had plans to begin operations in Europe, but we put them on hold until the Euro issues iron themselves out.

    Moving forward, tariffs will become a big obstacle to exports. Nations like China are implimenting tariffs upon imports as they become more protectionist. Of course we'll respond with similar tariffs upon Chinese exports.
  16. mcgraw_wv

    mcgraw_wv Rookie

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    Thank god for your one story! Meanwhile 3 of my friends just lost their jobs 2 weeks before Christmas. But yeah, Go Economy!!! :rolleyes:
  17. PatriotsReign

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    Yeah...when we talk about jobs getting better, we can't just look at one industry. I'm in the consumer products industry (CPG) and it seems there's always jobs out there for experienced people. But that's not an indication one way or the other about overall "jobs".
  18. Titus Pullo

    Titus Pullo Banned

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    And where would that WGP figure be without $11 trillion in U.S. bailouts alone? Which says nothing of QE(x) in Europe.

    You can rest your assertion on estimated WPG data (that usually misses quarterly forecasts since 2008) all you like. After all, when it comes to IMF and UN forecasting, it's nothing that trillions in corporate socialism can't create a nice short-term illusion for.

    Regardless, WGP is literally a summation of GDPs, and GDPs factor in enormous destructive costs, like war (and some might argue health care).

    Meanwhile, here are my metrics that indicate the global economy is in contraction mode:

    Manufacturing:

    Factories stall worldwide, U.S. jobless claims rise - Yahoo! Finance

    Manufacturing activity is contracting across Europe and most of Asia, data showed on Thursday, and a Chinese official declared that the world economy faces a worse situation than in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

    Factory activity shrank even further in the euro zone, reinforcing the view that the debt-strapped region is in recession, while British manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in two years, raising the risk the UK economy may suffer the same fate.

    China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed factory activity shrank in November for the first time in nearly three years, while a similar PMI showed Indian factory growth slowed close to stall speed.

    China: Fueling The Global Recession - Seeking Alpha

    For the third straight month, the HSBC/Markit release of China PMI indicated a contracting economy. The sub-indices were no better with new orders below 50 also for a second straight month and the new orders - exports contracting for a 5th month in a row. There was also a decline in manufacturing jobs. In fact the only meaningful increase in any of the numbers was in rate of inflation.

    Trade volume:

    More Evidence of the impending Recession: Container Shipping Companies Worried about Decline
    [​IMG]

    Market shares

    Global markets slide overwhelmed by negative news — MercoPress

    In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.6% at 5,176 while Germany's DAX fell 0.4% to 5,516. The CAC-40 in France was 0.5% lower at 2,857.

    The sense of an impending recession in the Euro zone was evident in the findings of a closely watched survey from financial information company Markit.

    Its monthly survey showed the Euro zone contracted for the third month running in November and that the deteriorating economic picture is not just confined to debt-stressed countries such as Greece.

    Metals
    or currencies vs. commodities...

    But this commodity bubble did not just start developing this year. As noted in a recent article by Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi, the amount of money invested in commodities exploded from $13 billion to $317 billion between 2003 and 2008.

    That is almost an unimaginable increase.

    Once upon a time, companies bought wheat or sugar on the open market because they needed those things. Now they have become speculative investments.

    The 2010 Commodity Bubble
    [​IMG]

    and of course, the most all-encompassing and undeniable metric of the end of growth...

    Oil price, oil production rates

    Cheap oil peaked somewhere between 2005-2008, and the world can NOT sustain growth without abundant, cheap energy.... NGL and shale oil/tar sands expansion does not equate to cheap energy... :

    The Oil Drum | World Oil Production Peaked in 2008
    Non OPEC oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2009 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. OPEC has the ability to increase production later this year and in early 2010. Although key OPEC producer Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005, it probably has sustainable annual surplus capacity of 1 mbd. Iraq and possibly Nigeria also have potential to increase production but these countries continue to have serious internal conflicts. By the time 2011 arrives, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2008 peak.


    Colin Campbell predicts credit crunch due to peak oil 2005 - YouTube

    note the green, which has plateaud:
    [​IMG]

    High oil prices threaten global economy, IEA warns | Business | guardian.co.uk

    World at Risk of

    Birol was asked what the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries might decide about output when it meets today in Vienna. “Given the market condition we have and the very fragile economic recovery, any production lower than today’s level will not be good news,” Birol said at an IEA presentation in Singapore.
    Forecasts that global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrel a day in 2012, “disappointing” output from non-OPEC suppliers and falling oil inventories in developed economies are holding up oil prices, Birol said.

    I could link to the Pentagon's, the U.S. DoE's, the British and German government's, Oxford Univ.'s and countless other entity's conclusion that peak is here... But the point is clear.

    The age of cheap energy is over, and with that, the global economy can not do anything but contract in the mid- to long-term.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2012
  19. PatriotsReign

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    Is that all you've got TP? (kidding)

    I'm sure you could have added to the list, but the above is enough to give us an idea of what's happening worldwide.

    Domestically, our real estate industry created an illusion that supplies were declining in 2011. The reality was that the moratorium on foreclosures (mandated by fed. gov't) actually stopped the supply from increasing. Now that foreclosures have re-started in earnest, the supply will only increase once again.

    Housing is the key industry for our economy. Especially for our middle-class. So many other industries depend upon real estate (see Lowes) tjat we won't experience a real increase in jobs until all the RE issues work themselves out. I think we're talking about years (3-5) before that happens.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2012
  20. PatsFanInVa

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    Interesting what you get when you look back at your crystal-ball stories, essentially guessing on the latest headline.

    From Seeking Alpha:

    He then adds that he believes that "this is splitting some very fine hairs."

    Welp, don't try to split the hairs in the other direction, and nobody will "split the hair" that you got it wrong.

    Here's some more of Yahoo Finance's wisdom:

    US auto industry to post another good sales year - Yahoo! Finance

    I guess it's just a global recession, even though it's a recession you need to find "evidence" for, because the growth rates -- the classic measurement of a recession -- don't agree. For some reason, the U.S. auto industry is finding places to sell cars, and projects an ability to continue to do so.

    Brazil sees record trade levels in 2011 - Yahoo! Finance

    Why there'd be such high demand from such a radically contracting China is beyond me. But of course, this is looking backward at 2011. The unfortunate case is you have no choice to do that if you're data-driven rather than "project-from-last-week" driven.

    Gold:
    I can't tell from the context of your post whether you are pointing out that people fled into gold, fearing inflationary pressures, or that based on the fact that the day the measurement was done wasn't the all-time high (and so the bubble is deflating.)

    The cost of gold being down would indicate that inflation fears are subsiding, if that's your point; the cost of gold being way up long-term is a classic bubble fueled by a cottage industry of gold-panic as a market reaction to panics on financial sector fears in the "heavy hitters" like the U.S.

    I'm not sure why you think a gold bubble -- whether you're saying it's deflating or whether you're pointing out we had one -- means we are in a global recession.

    Bottom line, the best data you have here is the containership traffic indicating very low trade. Measured from the trough of the depression, you're still seeing "growth" if the number of boxes that move equals growth (although it actually is just a proxy for growth in trade rather than production.)

    China's manufacturing output is down, which your article says is not surprising given China's exposure to Europe as a source of demand. So what else is new -- we're all exposed to Europe's debt crisis. Hell, even in the U.S., which has not crisis, debt's being painted as a reason to derail our own responses to recessionary pressures.

    And yet...
    Asian markets rise on eurozone factory data - Yahoo! Finance

    Long story short, a headline from Yahoo can be very impressive for 20 minutes.

    The data show world economic growth -- however tepid. They don't show a global recession, whatever a blogger from Seeking Alpha or a story or two from Yahoo are telling you.

    PFnV

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