Vegas still bullish on the Pats SB chances

[Triumph]

GB 2.2 - 1
NE 4 - 1

Updated Super Bowl odds from BetOnline.com | National Football Post

 

[TheSolderKing]

8-1 should be our odds

 

[letekro]

Shocking that they haven't dropped us off the board altoghether, seeing that we lost a game by 8 points at Pittsburgh.

 

[mgteich]

It seems that those in Vegas have a much higher view of our chances than those on this board.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

I know this gets said again and again yet people don't seem to understand that Vegas doesn't set the lines based on who they think will win anything. It's set by where the people's money is going. Vegas doesn't care who wins what. All they're doing is trying to get an even 50/50 bet for and aganst. They are happy with getting "the Vig". All that's being reflected is where the fans are putting their money. It seems there are lots of people who are still betting the Pats. That's all that's beng reflected.

 

[BlackandBlue1111]

Vegas loves it lately when people bet on the Pats, they end up making a killing.

 

[FalconHeavy]

Vegas loves it lately when people bet on the Pats, they end up making a killing.

exactly, the house always wins and they are making sure to spread the message so as to reel in as many suckers as possible

 

[Nikolai]

What it really means is that Vegas knows that most people in the country consider the Pats to be a better team than most Pats fans do.

 

[Triumph]

I know this gets said again and again yet people don't seem to understand that Vegas doesn't set the lines based on who they think will win anything. It's set by where the people's money is going. Vegas doesn't care who wins what. All they're doing is trying to get an even 50/50 bet for and aganst. They are happy with getting "the Vig". All that's being reflected is where the fans are putting their money. It seems there are lots of people who are still betting the Pats. That's all that's beng reflected.

How do you explain the NE vs Pitt spread at 2.5? NE supposedly owned Pitt. So how does 2.5 points draw folks to lay money on Pitt? I knew NE was going to lose that game the second I saw the spread just like I know NE will beat the Giants today.

Also, prior to this season Vegas had Pitt winning that game.

If NE goes on a run of wins, the spread will go down because the odds of them winning it all increases. Vegas very much has a feel for who is going to win or lose in these games. Past trends, injuries, travel, everything is taken into consideration.

Are they always right? No, but how often have you seen them set a spread and nail it?

 

[Ring 6]

I know this gets said again and again yet people don't seem to understand that Vegas doesn't set the lines based on who they think will win anything. It's set by where the people's money is going. Vegas doesn't care who wins what. All they're doing is trying to get an even 50/50 bet for and aganst. They are happy with getting "the Vig". All that's being reflected is where the fans are putting their money. It seems there are lots of people who are still betting the Pats. That's all that's beng reflected.

Which means that people who are backing up their opinion with their money have created those odds. THEY set the odds based on who they collectively expect to win. Don't know why that is less significant than who 'Vegas' thinks will win.

 

[Ring 6]

Vegas loves it lately when people bet on the Pats, they end up making a killing.

The Patriots are 19-5 the last 2 seasons. I have looked at what it is vs the spread but Im pretty sure its well over .500

 

[Triumph]

I know this gets said again and again yet people don't seem to understand that Vegas doesn't set the lines based on who they think will win anything. It's set by where the people's money is going. Vegas doesn't care who wins what. All they're doing is trying to get an even 50/50 bet for and aganst. They are happy with getting "the Vig". All that's being reflected is where the fans are putting their money. It seems there are lots of people who are still betting the Pats. That's all that's beng reflected.

The odds are for NE to win the 2011 SB. Where can you bet that NE wont win the SB?

There is no against or 50/50 split.

 

[jbb9s]

The odds are for NE to win the 2011 SB. Where can you bet that NE wont win the SB?

That's easy. You book the bet. Its like selling a call option that will never be exercised (if you're right). It's actually better than making a normal bet because you collect your money today not in Feb.

 

[PatsFan24]

It seems that those in Vegas have a much higher view of our chances than those on this board.

Many people on this board also have no clue, and love to tell people how little they know.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

How do you explain the NE vs Pitt spread at 2.5? NE supposedly owned Pitt. So how does 2.5 points draw folks to lay money on Pitt? I knew NE was going to lose that game the second I saw the spread just like I know NE will beat the Giants today.

Also, prior to this season Vegas had Pitt winning that game.

If NE goes on a run of wins, the spread will go down because the odds of them winning it all increases. Vegas very much has a feel for who is going to win or lose in these games. Past trends, injuries, travel, everything is taken into consideration.

Are they always right? No, but how often have you seen them set a spread and nail it?

Again, this has to do with balancing the line. If you're saying anything else, you don't know anything about gambling. Everything else is just an emotional response to something that Vegas has no emmotion about.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Which means that people who are backing up their opinion with their money have created those odds. THEY set the odds based on who they collectively expect to win. Don't know why that is less significant than who 'Vegas' thinks will win.

No, they set the odds based on where they expect there to be a 50/50 split on the money...nothing else.

Vegas does not say, "We think the Patriots will win by 20 points" and then go out and set the line at 20. They try and entice the better by saying if the "Bills" for instance, are given 10 points, will that entice enough people to bet on the Bills.


If the Money is even, does that mean that Vegas thinks it will be a tie? No, they just think the money will go either way.


I love people who think "Vegas likes a team". Probably the same suckers who think they can beat the Casinos.

Hat to tell people but Vegas wins because it doesn't care. If they do their job, they make money no matter who wins.

Do people realize that the line moves? Do you think that's because Vegas all of a sudden doesn't like someone? No, it's because they're trying to adjust to balance the line.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Read and pay attention to the following paragraph.

The Line does not really reflect deep analysis of which team will win a game—although Vegas goes out of its way to promote that myth. True comparative team strengths have surprisingly little to do with point spreads. What has everything to do with The Line is which team the public wants to bet on.

The point-spread Gospel according to Vegas comes from - 03.10.86 - SI Vault

 

[Triumph]

Again, this has to do with balancing the line. If you're saying anything else, you don't know anything about gambling. Everything else is just an emotional response to something that Vegas has no emmotion about.

Once more.

How is Vegas balancing the line on the Pats super bowl bet? There is only 1 team. Where is this 50/50 split youre jabbering about?

 

[SoCal Bong]

It's more of a 1 in 32 split. They are going to take money on every team to win the SB at varying odds. Each sports books risk tolerance varies a bit but it's somewhere between setting odds that win them the most money or lose them the least considering the collective action taken.

There is not usually a bet that allows you to lay odds against a team winning a championship but back in '07 you could bet "yes" or "no" on the Pats to go 19-0 (two-sided action) which I believe they posted sometime around week 10 or 11.

 

[BKBroiler]

Read and pay attention to the following paragraph.



The point-spread Gospel according to Vegas comes from - 03.10.86 - SI Vault

This is the exact reason why Detroit was only -2.5 against the Broncos the other week when I was in Vegas. Most of the general public was overwhelmingly fascinated by Tebow's come from behind win the week before, so Vegas set a low line that people who looked at the game objectively were able to cash in on.