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Vegas sets Patriots as double digit longshots to win SB 44

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Jan 6, 2010.

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  1. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Maybe the first time ever in the playoffs in the BB Era with odds exceeding 10-1 to win SB 44 (maybe 2001 was higher,not sure)

    $100 wager wins you $1,100 on the Patriots right now.

    Pretty nice high odds for a team that is 8-0 at home to start the wild card round because the odds drop dramatically when the teams get narrowed down to 8 next week.

    Odds on NFL Football, NCAAF, MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, UFC, NASCAR & More!
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    If every game were 50-50 we would have a 16-1 chance to win the SB, having to win 4 games. As usual, the odds aren't in your favor butit can make a good thing even better if we were to win.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  3. H8R

    H8R Rookie

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    :DYou know who the best team over the last decade was versus the spread? The Baltimore Ravens, pretty odd to think about that since we only have 1 SB and that was in 2000. I guess the Ravens play most game close and pull some out the ARSE every once in awhile.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1) Isn't that $110 to win $1000?

    2) If the patriots were 7-3 favorites for this week and even money for the rest of the way, that would result in odds of very close to 10-1. Do the math. Just put down the chances of us winning each game (as a decimal) and multiply. A 10-1 team should have one chance in 11 or .0909. Try it.
    BALT 70% or .7
    Divisional round (probably SD) 50% or .5
    Conference championship (Indy??) 50% or .5
    Super Bowl 50% or .5

    This calcs to .0875, making the expectation LESS than a 10-1 shot.

    What do YOU believe our chances are on each game?

  5. letekro

    letekro Rookie

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    I'd be very surprised if this is more than a 3 point game, either way.
  6. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    If I were to gamble on football and the Pats chances you jump early on them - a $100 bet to win $1,100 would probably drop to about $100 to win $500 once a team has been eliminated.


    Good luck to those who take a chance on the team,I'll stick to Horse Racing and the local Casino :).
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  7. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I believe the realistic approach to the playoffs is the odds go up on the Patriots the deeper they go,its obvious unless the Jets for example upset all the way to the AFCCG to play NE then the odds would drop very low.
  8. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    I'm just saying it's a bad bet. We'll be Favorite, Underdog, Underdog, Even, approximately, if we play Balt, @SD, @Indy, SB.

    At best that plays out to the equivalent of all 50-50 matchups which means the real odds are 16-1; although worse really as there's two road games and one home game.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After the wildcard week, if all teams were percieved to be equal, all odds would be set at 7-1. After the division round, the odds would be 3-1. The Super Bowl odds would be 1-1.

  10. scott99

    scott99 Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    I love the Pats, I loved em when they were 2-14 in 1981, 1-15 in 1990, and 2-14 in 1992. I've been a fan since 1975. The reason they are double digit longshots, is that they are no longer an elite team. They aren't anywhere near what they used to be, they don't have the swagger, they don't strike fear in teams, Belichick is no long a mad scientist defensive guru he once was (the NFL has caught up with him). I wish this wasn't true, but it is. We have many holes that need to be filled, including upgrades in co-ordinators. The next two drafts (having Oakland's #1 in 2011 is big), as well as the last two, will really help show if this team will be an elite team again (though I think BB hasn't had a good draft in several years). Right now, they are not elite, they have not beaten a good team all year. I'd be thrilled if they beat Baltimore again, but I'm not too confident at this point (doesn't make me less of a fan, just don't see a great Patriot's team out there).
  11. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    :agree: could not have said it better myself,well done post
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    All the teams playing the extra game have higher odds than the patriots other than Dallas.

    The odds have nothing to do with being an elite team it has to with us not having a bye.

    We are tops among the teams playing this weekend in the AFC, as Dallas is in the NFC.
  13. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Define elite. Record? Super Bowls? Capable of winning a Superbowl?


    How do you know that they don't strike fear in teams. Seems to me team get pretty amped to play the Pats.


    Really? How do you know this?


    .
    According to who? You?


    True.


    The draft last year was very good. 2007 picks were Moss and Welker and got Merriweather too, who is a fringe pro-bowler in the eyes of many. Mayo was solid. Guyton. Hes missed on picks just like every other GM.

    I don't doubt you being a fan. But you are off base on a number of issues.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I don't doubt you being a fan. But you are off base on a number of issues.[/QUOTE]


    I thought his post was right on but for every person is a different view.
  15. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Its so weird having the pats being mega longshots just like in 2001. Its weird because most fans on this board know we can get a 14+ point lead at the chargers or colts, the question being can we keep it.
  16. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why does it matter when our new Practice Squad players returned kicks in college? Belichick is NOT going to trust them to return kicks in the playoffs. Those duties fall to Maroney, Faulk, Edelman, Slater and perhaps someone else on the current roster.
  17. FloridaPatsFan

    FloridaPatsFan Rookie

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    There's no question that the loss of Seymour/Vrabel/Harrison and Bruschi was going to hurt us...and it has shown up on the games we lost in the 4th quarter...I think that next year, this defense is going to be a monster...it's amazing what 1 year of experience and playing time does for a team with young players....

    I think we are a long shot but the defense has shown moments of having it all come together...enough to win a couple of games and then seeing what we are made of in the AFCCG..
  18. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    mega longshots????????????????? We are favored over every AFC playing this weekend. The only AFC team with better chances at the SB are those who have byes.

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