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Vegas running scared??????

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by DaBruinz, Nov 22, 2007.

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  1. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Was talking to my brother today and I didn't realize that many books in Vegas have pulled their lines on the Pats /Eagles game.

    Has this ever happeed before to anyone's knowledge?
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2007
  2. sduncansca@yahoo.com

    sduncansca@yahoo.com Rookie

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    There was an article in the herald on this today. One of the off-shore sites said they are getting killed by the pats and this weeks like will be the second highest to the Steelers-Bucs 1976. Said they will not pull the games from the board but the money is running 65% towards the pats no matter what the line is.
  3. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If by "lines" you mean straight-up winners, then, yes, you're correct. [As I posted in another thread, the best odds you can get for Pats beating Eagles is 1-25. Yes--to win $100, you have to risk $2500.]

    If you mean against the spread, then, by and large, they haven't (yet).
  4. JoePats

    JoePats Rookie

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    Well they don't know if McNabb is playing, so yes.
  5. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Another interesting fact--Accuscore.com now has the Pats winning 97.5% of their simulations, with an average score of 37.5-12.9. Even the Dolphins and the Bills had chances of 5-7%.
  6. letekro

    letekro Rookie

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    Can someone, anyone, please explain why Vegas would ever take a point spread wager off the board?????? Why can't they just steadily raise it until they have equal money on both sides? I know I'm missing something here, but I just can't put it together.
  7. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    they dont wanna look like idiots by raising the spread to like 30 points, LOL or higher
  8. Satchboogie3

    Satchboogie3 Rookie

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    According to Accuscore, we have a 66.6% chance to run the table during the regular season. Interestingly too, they give us a 0.5% chance of winning 13 or less games.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2007
  9. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    just to understand u,

    u mean they give the pats a 99.5% chance of winning at least 13 games? LOL
  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    That would be a 99.5% chance of winning at least 14 games (enough to guarantee HF throughout btw) if there's a 0.5% chance of winning 13 or less.
  11. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    Patriots -35 vs. Dolphins
    Patriots - 30 vs. Jets

    Bank on 30+ spreads in both games
  12. FrontSeven

    FrontSeven Rookie

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    They can (and will) raise the line if they have to. I think they are learning as they go, and they are having trouble adjusting. I think the public's reaction is surprising them and they are in uncharted waters. Some may be getting their asses handed to them, and not have the stomach for the remedy.

    They are already speculating about a 27 point spread against the Jets, and that is just ridiculous. One turnover and that goes down the tubes.

    Well, maybe not. That's how weird this is.
  13. FrontSeven

    FrontSeven Rookie

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    If that's true then that goes to show you how desperate they are to force money the other way. It's ridiculous. Nobody in America believes in the dog no matter how many points you give them. I'll bet they could give 40 and people would still snap up giving the points.

    It's insane. We're witnessing mass insanity except that the insane asylum is beating the crap out of the sane asylum. Wow.

    But one day it will turn around ......... I'm guessing around 2012.
  14. godef

    godef Rookie

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    Thats 1/2 of 1 percent, not 50 percent.
  15. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    haha, that would tie the AFC lead wouldnt it? thats funny


    also, i would LOVE to see a 30 pt line.....and a 35pt line against the Jets...
  16. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Yeah, 14-2 locks us in as only the Colts can also get there and we have the tiebreak over them.
  17. maseda17

    maseda17 Rookie

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    Well you can't really get a money-line for the Patriots in these games. That risk is well worth the reward when you are talking hundred of thousands of dollars or even millions.
  18. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Nothing insane about it. The Pats have covered the spread 9 out of 10 times. The Pats are just steamrolling everyone this year. Smart money now bets on the Pats. Unfortunately for Vegas, this loses money for them because everyone has realized that it is dumb to bet AGAINST the Pats.
  19. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    There are an awful lot of people in here who don't really have a thorough grasp on how Vegas sportsbooks operate. By an amazing coincidence, these are the same people who are always telling you they have a "brother" or "cousin" or "friend of a friend" who works/owns/manages a sportsbook in Vegas.

    Fact is they do steadily raise the line until there is roughly equal action on both sides, hence the week's record-breaking line against Philly. The only reason this game is off the boards at some places is because of the questionable status of Philly's starting QB.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2007
  20. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Generally that's true - but they DO sometimes try to get the money on the losing side if they're confident in the result and can get the money on the side they want (the side they expect to lose). There's more risk but a heck of a lot better payoff then getting bets equal on both sides. On the average game, you are right - but not on all games; there's way too much money to be had in winning the bet than in just being a facilitator in the betting process.
  21. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    BF, my good friend, this is one of those rare instances where we're going to have to agree to disagree. Casinos don't gamble. They don't sit around playing hunches trying to predict who will win a game and get money in on that team. That leave that for the idiotic degenerate gamblers (like me). They didn't build all them castles in the desert by playing hunches and guessing :D
  22. FrontSeven

    FrontSeven Rookie

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    Well they should have tried to guess if the desert had enough water to sustain the type of development for the long term.

    I guess they can move to Atlantic City and get a little closer to the boss.
  23. ColtinIraq

    ColtinIraq Banned

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    They will usually only take them off the board if they feel like something shady is going on.
  24. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    wuts THAT supposed to mean? LOL
  25. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Check out the article below:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3120882

    The spread was initially 17 points for Pats v Eagles. The big money quickly jumped on that 17. The spread increased to 23.5 points in anticipation of the money they were going to lose from the people who got the early jump and bet on 17. 17 is an easy cover for this Pats offense. 23.5 is going to be more difficult but it wouldn't shock me at all if the Patriots covered that as well.
  26. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    This is also a good explanation of how Vegas can occassionally lose money on an individual game. If the early action is completely lopsided, the line will shift until it finds equilibrium - but those early bets are certainly still valid. That's why a game is usually cirlced when the line is first released (meaning Vegas only takes limited action until an equilibrium is reached). If we're at equilibrium at 23.5, there's still an imbalance from the period when the line was at 17, 18, 19, etc.

    But if the line is at 23.5, and has been that way for a while now, that means the books have finally found something which reasonably approaches equal money being bet on each side.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2007
  27. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The casinos can indeed lose money. Consider if the actual result is patriots by 20. The bettors who gave 17 would win and the bettors who took 23 will also win.

    Most casinos lay off the imbalance on their books, but that costs. And what if no one wants to bet on Philly unless you move the line to 28? The line can be at 28, but there would likely be much less action, and therefore much less profit for the casinos. Some casinos would rather have a bit of imbalance, which they can lay off; rather than having almost no profit and a "perfect" line.
  28. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Speaking of which, with the line at -22.5, 87% of the money is on the Pats (yes, that many people are giving the points).
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