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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by crowell33, Apr 26, 2010.

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  1. crowell33

    crowell33 Rookie

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    Despite the message board predictions of the Patriots demise, the heavy money continues to be placed on NE Patriots success. The Patriots are the third most likely team to win the Super Bowl next year, currently at 10 - 1. Only the Colts ( 8-1), and the Saints (9-1), are more likely to win the Superbowl this season. If you must know , the Jets are 12 - 1.

    As professional gamblers are aware, these lines are adjusted regularly based on the cumulative millions of dollars wagered. ( not by cumulative negative message board posts ).
  2. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    But...but...don't they listen to WEEI? The Pats are totally screwed and have no idea what they are doing!
  3. Lamanai

    Lamanai Rookie

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    I was in Vegas the weekend before the draft and the Pats were 8-1 at Mirage and 7-1 at Caesars. I'm not sure why the odds would be longer now.
  4. AJY the Jets troll

    AJY the Jets troll Rookie

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    Vegas odds are way smarter than any of us, not kidding
  5. Brady2Welker

    Brady2Welker Rookie

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    Casinos invest some serious money researching this stuff, it gives them the best possible payback.
  6. zoostation

    zoostation Rookie

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    LOL.. Doesn't "gloom of doom" Callahan know more about team building and the draft than both Bill Belichick and Las Vegas?
  7. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Vegas must have heard that we signed all-world Gerard Warren...
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I suspect that Baltimore is underrated. They now have as good a chance as the other three.
  9. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    you can't win a super bowl if you don't make the playoffs. and the pats made the playoffs 8 out of the last 10 years so vegas puts them high every year cause they are pretty much the only lock to make the playoffs
  10. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    I think the bigger problem is Patriots' fans undervaluation of their own team. Relatively speaking, the Patriots are weak. They are a far, far cry from the bullies of '07, and lacking veteran experience and leadership. Even so, last year the stats suggested the Pats are not that far away from being the team to beat again. Examples: most NFL teams could not have dreamed of running up a 20-point lead in the second half to the Colts, even if they did manage to blow it; most NFL teams would not be in the position to choke away 5 games in the 4th quarter, and still win 10.

    If Welker can become 75-80% of what he was last year by the second half of the season, I think the Pats are a top-5 NFL team.
  11. WhoaDirty

    WhoaDirty Rookie

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    Would the odds not change because of betting patterns?
  12. crowell33

    crowell33 Rookie

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    Yes and no. The Patriots have actually held steady as the third most likely team to win the Superbowl this season. What has changed is the actually odds themselves ( 8-1 drop to 10 -1 ). This drop has also occurred with the Saints and the Colts as well.

    What this signifies is that the money has moved towards the longshots and away from the favorites. This is indicative of a season without a clearcut favorite or favorites.
  13. patsfanboy

    patsfanboy Rookie

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    It is pointless to guess right now, we still need to find out where we are, and that doesn't happen after a few games into the reason.
  14. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's my impression too - cut and dried. The pool = a grand total of dollars bet, and where the money moves is how the house has to set the odds, right? Theoretically you have to pay all those 12-1 or 10-1 or 8-1 or 200-1 bets. You do that by making the odds shorter the more people bet on a team. If you do it right, it all balances, plus a house cut.

    What am I missing? Seems the oddsmakers' smarts come into play in making sure they are on top of the flow of the money, not in "picking" winners and losers.
  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Actually, different casinos and sportsbooks are going to obviously have different odds. It's the same thing as my daily "shopping" around to find the best baseball odds, as they're all going to be slightly different. For example, one sportsbook had the Cubs-140 last night, while another had them at -157. So obviously, the one with the -140 had better odds if you wanted to bet the Cubs, while the other had better odds if you wanted their opponent (WSH).

    The 10-1 odds you are referring to was posted on PFT today, but the 7-1/8-1 odds that another poster stated at a Vegas casino are also true.

    The odds haven't changed dramatically at all (besides the current money being dropped on the NYJ), they are just relative to different casinos/sportsbooks.

    The important point of everything is that the Pats remain tied for 4th best with SD at anywhere between 8-1 and 11-1, depending on the many various sites and casinos who will take your action. The PFT article you are quoting has the Pats and SD both tied for 4th best at 10-1, while Indy leads at 8-1, and New Orl is next at 9-1.

    The bottom line is that none of this means crap, as both last year and the year before it was the same old song and dance--yet in both years we failed to win even one playoff game. This trend is based mainly by the 2007 season, as all the attention and money was on us. The farther we get away from 2007, the longer the odds will continue to get. In 2008 we were like 5-1, while last year in 2009 we were around 8-1. This yr we are 10-1. As we get further away (without winning anything significant or going to at least the AFCCG) from 2007's run at perfection, we will get worse and worse odds. Next yr's will only get worse, unless we'd make a decent run in the playoffs, or go on a free agent spending spree--and even then, the odds will likely stay the same as this year (roughly 10-1).

    Your point was that our team is in a lot better shape than many have given them credit for, but I'd refrain from guzzling the kool-aid just yet. With many questions at different areas, and a very hard schedule (playing every single AFC playoff team + 2 out of 6 in the NFC), the Pats will indeed remain competitive, yet I'm not sure we're exactly making a SB run either.

    As far as your reasoning of there not being a 'clear' favorite, I don't see how it's any different then any other year at all. If anything, the fact that both IND and NO were both 13-0 last year and both played in the SB, should make this year a clearer favorite than even past years.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2010
  16. Triumph

    Triumph Rookie

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    Absolutely right.

    I always shop around. Theres a $600 difference from 8 - 1 and 10 - 1 on a $300 bet.

    If you win.
  17. Yehoodi

    Yehoodi Rookie

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    yes it was impressive that we were in 15 of our 16 games late in the 4th qtr. most teams can not make this statement . . .
  18. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! Rookie

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    Take the mojo of the 2001 team and mix it with the talent of our youngsters and we would be one helluva team.
  19. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Interesting information. Thanks for reminding us!

    We shouldn't read too much into it, but, at least as much as how the current "53" are regarded, this reflects the Pats' consistency and commitment to Bob Kraft's objective going into every season: to field a competitive team. If you're competitive for the playoffs year in and year out, the vagaries of chance being what they are, you're going to win more than your share of Super Bowls.
  20. Pewsterbaby

    Pewsterbaby Rookie

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    Yeah, after almost running the table in '07, Vegas had them as faves in '08. Playoff wins= 0

    Upon Brady's return in '09, Vegas had them as faves AGAIN.
    Playoff wins= 0

    Now they're third. Maybe they'll win in the playoffs based on that reverse logic.

    btw, what are the Jets & Ravens ranks? 1. Colts, 2.A) Saints 2.B) Jets 2.C) Ravens, 3. Pats

    That's more realistic based on present rosters
  21. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    Goo posting. My two preseason wagers are Balt SB champs and over on Detroit wins which hopefully will be 4.5 or 5.5.

    Also, for those looking at these odds for Pats as a good thing, Vegas sets the odds not just on what they think will happen, but they also lower the odds for teams they know will get lots of public action, like Pats and dallas.
  22. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    I know they got Boldin, but the Ravens seemed so flat on offense in the divisional playoff against the Colts.

    Is Flacco good enough to make a SB run? I haven't seen many ravens games and in ours he just handed off a bunch since we imploded.
  23. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    They added Boldin and Stallworth, the latter a very underrated signing. Much like with the NEP, he'll just be the #3 guy to stretch the field, behind Boldin & Mason.

    If Pitta pans out at TE that will be a complete offense. (In fact the more I think of it, the more I think the league owes us one for stealing Gronk from under them.)

    And then on D, if just one of Kindle and Cody makes an impact in 2010, that D is much better.

    Add in the fact that they are a shoe-in for the division with Ben out 6 games and Ravens at 20-1 is the best value on the board.
  24. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    The Ravens appear to have an amazing Defense right now. And as if their run stopping wasn't good enough, they added Cody and Kindle. They now have a brick wall defensive line unless Cody is a bust.
  25. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I always saw teams such as the NYJ and BAL as those who had top 3 defenses, and focused on running the ball + good ball control, clock mgmt, etc. It will be interesting to see if they now are better for their changes, at least on offense. The NYJ have added some decent weapons, as have the Ravens. BAL has decent downfield threats now too in Boldin, Mason, Clayton, and Heap/Pitta. With Ray Rice out of the backfield, I think they will win the North and continue making noise.

    As far as the NYJ go, it'll be pretty hard at times to successfully throw against them, and I realize that everyone looks to Cromartie as the weak link in the secondary--yet I somehow think Rex Ryan is too smart for that. I believe he brought him there to shut down the passing game, thus buying an extra second or two for his elite pass rush schemes. Revis has already proven he can and will shut anyone down one on one, and I see Rex Ryan rolling a safety to Cromartie's side for more help at times--practically double coverage, giving his pass rush specialists even more time to do their jobs creating havoc. I believe that the NYJ will be very competitive, and that many of us are hoping that Sanchez is the weak link--although for a rookie he made good strides down the stretch, and I believe they will continue his game managing and he will be obviously better.
  26. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    latest odds show Jets 6-1 and Pats 9-1 to win SB
  27. PatsFanStnfrd

    PatsFanStnfrd Rookie

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    The Jets must have passionate big-wallet bettors to have moved the line that much in a week.
  28. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    MGM Grand in Las Vegas has set the latest odds

    Strange thing is the Colts are favored at 5-1,the Jets second at 6-1,the Cowboys at 7-1 but the world champion Saints who have a good chunk of the team coming back is at 10-1 just above the Redskins and below the Pats who didn't get into the divisional round...figure it out,I can't
  29. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    Bear in mind, Vegas odds are necessarily the odds that they think a team has of winning the SB: it's the odds they think will best balance their book based on anticipated action.

    Saints are a traditional public team a la Cowboys, Pats, Packers, Colts, NY teams. So those teams will have lower odds as Vegas knows they will get more action on them than they will less popular teams.
  30. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    Vegas odds are intended to keep equal numbers betting for or against a team - ensuring that Vegas doesn't lose their shirt because everyone's betting on one side and "the house always wins".

    It IS reflective of how the betting public views the teams - and I suspect that the odds on the Patriots are more a representation of public admiration for what Belichick and Brady can do, rather than anything regarding the make up of the team via free agency or the draft.

    If the Patriots odds are getting "worse" its because more of the betting public is jumping on their bandwagon and Vegas wants to foster some balance.

    Fans often read too much in to Vegas odds - it has less to do with reality than perception.
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2010
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