Vegas bearish on Bills and other AFC odds

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Vegas has the Bills at about a 33% chance of making it. That is surprising considering the Bills hot streak and a seeming lack of strong AFC contenders for the wild card spots, and the fact the Bills host the Patriots in two weeks with a reasonable chance (not saying over 50%, but a shot) of being the first divisional team to sweep the Patriots in a very long time. Vegas clearly thinks the Bills will come crashing back to earth and are overrated, or at the very least have not separated from pack.

Other AFC contenders - who aren't considered divisional favorites - odds of making the playoffs are as follows: Kansas City (50%), Baltimore (30%), Cincinnati (27%), Oakland (25%), Indianapolis (19%), Jacksonville (19%). Simply put, oddsmakers like the Chiefs to be in the playoff hunt, while everyone else is a crap shoot at this point in the season.

It might also surprise people that Denver is not as strong in the eyes of Vegas as many would believe, despite their incredible defense. A two-game losing streak doesn't help, but all year Vegas has been much more bearish on the Broncos than pundits. The Broncos have a 40% chance to win the division and roughly a 60% chance to make the playoffs. With the Patriots at almost 50% to win the entire conference and 25% to win the Super Bowl, it's clear that Vegas isn't seeing the feared December game in Denver as a likely battle for the #1 seed; then again, last year, it was the same situation at the time with the Broncos fighting to make the playoffs and the Patriots coasting/collapsing to the finish line.

It may be way too early to start talking about the MVP race, but the oddsmakers clearly don't think that Tom Brady's four-game suspension will preclude him from winning the award. Brady is the leading candidate, although he still has only a 20% chance. This is pretty normal for this point in the season since we haven't even reached November yet, and there will be jockeying along the way. Brady was roughly a 75% favorite last season before the injury bug hit around week 10.

 

[slam]

That's odd about the Bills. I've mentally penciled them into the playoffs because their schedule is weak as hell. Football Outsiders has them at 75.7% right now.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

 

[oldrover]

If the Bills (insert laughter here, but play along) win out....








they're the #1 seed.

 

[NYPatsFan]

If the Bills (insert laughter here, but play along) win out....

they're the #1 seed.

The Bills have 2 losses, so if the Pats and Bill win out, Bills would be a wild card team.

 

[slam]

Bills play the Pats again, so if they win out they'll have beaten the Pats again is the assumption.

 

[FourierSeries]

The Bills have 2 losses, so if the Pats and Bill win out, Bills would be a wild card team.

They can't both win out. They still have 1 game left against each other.

 

[NYPatsFan]

Bills play the Pats again, so if they win out they'll have beaten the Pats again is the assumption.

Haha.. I get it now

 

[Haterproof]

Everyone will find out exactly who the Bills are in the next few weeks! They're playing @ Miami on Sunday hosting New England the following week then back to back road games @ Seattle and @ Cincinnati! They'll definitely get bought back to earth!

 

[Kdo5]

I cannot yet pencil the Bills in for a wild card unless they beat us. Absolutely not buying into this team yet. Aside from the Cardinals, Buffalo should have won their other three.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if they go down to Miami and lose this weekend. While Miami is garbage they could give the Bills one of those tough divisional bouts, especially at home. And don't believe the Bills aren't already thinking ahead about that Patriots game.

 

[slam]

Buffalo's remaining schedule:
@ Mia*
NE
@Sea
BYE
#Cin*
Jax*
@Oak
Pit
Cle*
Mia*
@Jets*
*Very winnable games. Could go 5-1 or 4-2 in these games.
Other games are tougher, but I could see them going 1-3 or 2-2.

I predict 10-6 and a Wild Card while probably not actually being a good team, as the team is built like their usual 7-9 team. They got a free win vs. the Pats by facing the #3 QB injured and an extra win or two by NYJ and MIA's dysfunction this year if they take care of business.

 

[Ring 6]

Vegas has the Bills at about a 33% chance of making it. That is surprising considering the Bills hot streak and a seeming lack of strong AFC contenders for the wild card spots, and the fact the Bills host the Patriots in two weeks with a reasonable chance (not saying over 50%, but a shot) of being the first divisional team to sweep the Patriots in a very long time. Vegas clearly thinks the Bills will come crashing back to earth and are overrated, or at the very least have not separated from pack.

Other AFC contenders - who aren't considered divisional favorites - odds of making the playoffs are as follows: Kansas City (50%), Baltimore (30%), Cincinnati (27%), Oakland (25%), Indianapolis (19%), Jacksonville (19%). Simply put, oddsmakers like the Chiefs to be in the playoff hunt, while everyone else is a crap shoot at this point in the season.

It might also surprise people that Denver is not as strong in the eyes of Vegas as many would believe, despite their incredible defense. A two-game losing streak doesn't help, but all year Vegas has been much more bearish on the Broncos than pundits. The Broncos have a 40% chance to win the division and roughly a 60% chance to make the playoffs. With the Patriots at almost 50% to win the entire conference and 25% to win the Super Bowl, it's clear that Vegas isn't seeing the feared December game in Denver as a likely battle for the #1 seed; then again, last year, it was the same situation at the time with the Broncos fighting to make the playoffs and the Patriots coasting/collapsing to the finish line.

It may be way too early to start talking about the MVP race, but the oddsmakers clearly don't think that Tom Brady's four-game suspension will preclude him from winning the award. Brady is the leading candidate, although he still has only a 20% chance. This is pretty normal for this point in the season since we haven't even reached November yet, and there will be jockeying along the way. Brady was roughly a 75% favorite last season before the injury bug hit around week 10.

Look at the bills schedule. They are very possibly at the outset of a 4 game losing streak.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The Bills have 2 losses, so if the Pats and Bill win out, Bills would be a wild card team.

The Pats and Bills can't win out since they play each other.

 

[ALP]

Buffalo's remaining schedule:
@ Mia*
NE
@Sea
BYE
#Cin*
Jax*
@Oak
Pit
Cle*
Mia*
@Jets*
*Very winnable games. Could go 5-1 or 4-2 in these games.
Other games are tougher, but I could see them going 1-3 or 2-2.

I predict 10-6 and a Wild Card while probably not actually being a good team, as the team is built like their usual 7-9 team. They got a free win vs. the Pats by facing the #3 QB injured and an extra win or two by NYJ and MIA's dysfunction this year if they take care of business.

the bills can very easily lose 6 of the next 7...

 

[Ring 6]

the bills can very easily lose 6 of the next 7...

Agree. I think the best case is 3-4. We know how Rex Ryan's teams perform after they are pumped up with false bravado of a winning streak. 3-4 would require them to go to Miami and win this week, and everything about Rex Ryans coaching history tells me they lay an egg down there.

 

[Nikolai]

Agree. I think the best case is 3-4. We know how Rex Ryan's teams perform after they are pumped up with false bravado of a winning streak. 3-4 would require them to go to Miami and win this week, and everything about Rex Ryans coaching history tells me they lay an egg down there.

Yep, 3-4 is best case, and even that isn't all that likely. The question is whether they can find a way to back into the playoffs. Even with all these 4-2 teams, I can see a 9-7 slipping into the postseason.

 

[fnordcircle]

Vegas has the Bills at about a 33% chance of making it. That is surprising considering the Bills hot streak and a seeming lack of strong AFC contenders for the wild card spots, and the fact the Bills host the Patriots in two weeks with a reasonable chance (not saying over 50%, but a shot) of being the first divisional team to sweep the Patriots in a very long time. Vegas clearly thinks the Bills will come crashing back to earth and are overrated, or at the very least have not separated from pack.

Sure, but Vegas odds aren't just about looking at the team's makeup, trends, future schedule, etc. It's also about gauging betters and what they will or will not put money down on. Vegas wants to balance the betting on each side of a bet so they aren't exposed and can pay the winner out of the loser's wager and keep some for themselves. The hollywood stereotype of a book being exposed is what they try to avoid.

Which is why people getting angry about odds is funny because it's really not about respect or disrespect or whatever. Certain fanbases are just always going to bet heavily on their team, at least given that team's recent success, so that's why the Patriots have to win by 2+ scores to cover so much, because betting on them has been generally profitable enough that Vegas needs to entice our opponent's fans into saying "There is no way the Patriots win by 8 with some dumb Italian QB."

 

[Ring 6]

Sure, but Vegas odds aren't just about looking at the team's makeup, trends, future schedule, etc. It's also about gauging betters and what they will or will not put money down on. Vegas wants to balance the betting on each side of a bet so they aren't exposed and can pay the winner out of the loser's wager and keep some for themselves. The hollywood stereotype of a book being exposed is what they try to avoid.

Which is why people getting angry about odds is funny because it's really not about respect or disrespect or whatever. Certain fanbases are just always going to bet heavily on their team, at least given that team's recent success, so that's why the Patriots have to win by 2+ scores to cover so much, because betting on them has been generally profitable enough that Vegas needs to entice our opponent's fans into saying "There is no way the Patriots win by 8 with some dumb Italian QB."

That's why DraftKings is printing money.
The get 10% of whatever is bet NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS.