Value? I got your VALUE right here

[pencilneckgeek]

Honestly, the problem with the Pats "value" picks is that they're taking players that nobody really wants with those picks. They seem to think they are so smart with the guys they get but still few of them have panned out and they've missed out on blue chip talent. This year the trade back for McCourty was puzzling since there were 2 CB talents that were for the most part graded higher by draftniks, Kyle Wilson and Patrick Robinson.

Not sure who "thinks they are so smart." Teams make evaluations of players. If they don't trust their own judgments, they might as well cut front-office payroll and read the newspapers before draft day to find-out who to pick. The fact that the Pats evaluate players differently is no suprise and is a different question from overall drafting philosophy, which I think others have addressed well (echoing some of Belichik's comments) in discusing the uncertainty of player evaluations and how that relates to quantity of picks correlating to quality of pipes.

McKenzie, Burgess.... three draft picks (including 2 3rd rounders) gone bye bye!!!!
what if they just drafted where they were... you could probably have Rey Maualuga, Clay Mathews as your LBs... that is just a sample. Im sure I could find more players they missed out on by trading down.

These two examples have come-up frequently lately among the heaping-generalization :bricks: crowd. The funny thing is they are related. We all had big hopes for the linebacking crew with the acquisition of McKenzie and the transfer of AD back to OLB. Unfortunately, McKenzie blew-out his ACL, and AD's pass-rushing skills weren't what they'd seemed in Baltimore, so we scrambled to get a dangerous outside rusher. That whole transaction didn't work out well, but it wasn't as if there weren't attempts to address the position with a mixture of former-all pros and draft picks. It also constitutes a single data point (one year's plan and contingency plan) to address the OLB situtation. The other half of that plan (signing TBC to compensate for Vrabel's departure) worked out adequately, but as is often the case, the last-minute trade for Burgess wasn't the answer. This year, the primary effort to address the OLB issue was drafting Cunningham. The jury is still out on that front.



Lastly, off topic, in response to a solid post, but I couldn't let this bit slide:

Daniel Graham- Such an underrated player, our running game has never been the same since we lost him and was a great redzone threat. I guess you can make a case for Ed Reed here but no one knows what he would do in our system.

He would have shined like the sun. Graham was a fine player and a fine pick, but Ed Reed has made BB drool over the years and rightly so.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

This is a great point. It's like saying, "Aside from 10 games, we were 0-7 last year!"

Also, I think the Patriots take an approach that if they're going to pick someone in the 1st round, they better be damn sure they're going to be a player. Otherwise they take their chances later.

The WORST 1st round picks in the BB era are Watson (who was 32 overall wasn't he? or was that Graham...), and Maroney... I won't start a Maroney argument all over again, but if Maroney is your biggest "bust" in the first round in 10 years, you're doing something right:

Seymour (HOF)
Wilfork (Pro-Bowl)
Warren (Pro-Bowl calibur)
Graham (devastating blocker and decent enough receiver)
Watson (meh)
Maroney (better than he gets credit for in some circles, but not a 1st round value thus far)
Meriweather (borderline pro-bowl)
Mayo (DROY)
Mankins (pro-bowl)

That's an EXCELLENT track record in the most important round of the draft. Misses in the first can handcuff your team.

EDIT: Should have read the whole thread. Someone posted almost this exact same thing already Sorry.

Also don't forget the league stole one of our 1st rounders for Spygate. That player or players would now be in his 3rd season. The penalty for Spygate should have been no higher than a 3rd rounder.

Plus, we have an extra 1st rounder and extra 2nd rounder for next year, which are tremendous assets going forward.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Screaming, you talk alot of sense, but I have to warn you. I see you don't have alot of posts. My warning is, if you try to be open and honest on this board, you can - but ONLY if it's all roses and candy, and positive.

Your post was not, so you're going to get bombarded. Sorry to say. I appreciate your guts though.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is my problem with this board. It's full of BB and Kraft homers. How dare u speak ill of the great BB.

Ok, I'll buy that you really are new here, since you seem to be lumping me in with the homers.

Didn't BB get fired in cleveland?

Yes

Didn't he make the wrong decision on the 4th and 2 call?

Yes

Didn't he refuse to kick a 48 yard field goal in Sb 42? instead he went for it on 4th and 13.

Well, they didn't go for the field goal. That much is true.

However, some on here say we should never criticize him. Bobby Bowden was just infallible a couple of years at florida St, but was forced out last year.

Yes, there are over-the-top people in the homer camp. There are also over-the-top people in the Chicken Little camp. Most groups have their share of extremists.

I hate the whole trade down stuff. You have a better chancing of finding elite talent at the top of the draft than in later rounds. Yes you can find gem in late rounds, but that is a more difficult way to build a team.

Trading out of the first round does, indeed, lessen the likelihood of finding an elite player. Pro Bowl and All-Pro rosters back that up. On the other hand, multiple lower picks do increase the odds of finding a starting caliber player. It becomes a matter of what you're needing for your team. This team was in desperate need of an overall talent infusion because the changing league, coupled with a lot of mistakes by the front office, had combined to leave the Patriots undertalented. Now, though, the talent seems to be there at a lot of positions.

If next year's first round picks bring in DE/OLB players to finish the youth movement on the defense, and then the team looks to address the offensive line and running back spots with the rest of the draft, I'd have to say that the strategy worked out pretty well, wouldn't you?

 

[Ron Sellers]

I hate the whole trade down stuff. You have a better chancing of finding elite talent at the top of the draft than in later rounds. Yes you can find gem in late rounds, but that is a more difficult way to build a team.

Somebody here has a quote in their signature that says 'we're building a team, not collecting talent', or words to that affect. There are 22 starters, plus several more that get significant playing time in sub packages. It's simply not possible for every player to be a first round pick. When you trade up you are going to lose something - and that something will have to be replaced on your roster, probably by an undrafted free agent or player cut by another team.

There are times when a team would be better served trading up, and other times when they may be better off trading down. I have to disagree with the idea that either one is always right or always wrong.

 

[Ron Sellers]

It's funny, the easy answer to these complaints is that we'd have Maluaga and Matthews at linebacker, but we wouldn't have Butler and McCourty at CB, we'd have Wheatley and Wilhite starting.

Apparently that is exactly what some would prefer. I guess they would be okay with trading Butler, Tate, Edelman and Gronkowski for Clay Matthews right now too.

when the pats traded down in 2009 (to the packers for clay matthews), the resulting picks turned into darius butler, brandon tate, julian edelman, and almost all of rob gronkowski (7th round pick used to trade up not included).

The 89th overall pick in 2009 turned into spikes, mesko, and the panthers' 2011 2nd.

After trading down from 22 this year, the pats got mccourty, price, and hernandez.

Summary:
2009 1st + 2009 3rd + 2010 1st = butler, tate, edelman, gronk, spikes, mesko, 2011 2nd, mccourty, price, and hernandez
(and each of those 3 starting picks were toward the end of the round)

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Honestly, the problem with the Pats "value" picks is that they're taking players that nobody really wants with those picks. They seem to think they are so smart with the guys they get but still few of them have panned out and they've missed out on blue chip talent. This year the trade back for McCourty was puzzling since there were 2 CB talents that were for the most part graded higher by draftniks, Kyle Wilson and Patrick Robinson.

I have to disagree with you. The "worst" 1st round pick we've made during the Belichick era would probably be a toss-up between Maroney and Ben Watson. As several people have mentioned in this thread, if they're the worst, we've done a fantastic job.

The only time we ever moved out of the 1st round was 2009. We ended up still getting Darius Butler which was who a lot of mock drafts had us taking in the first place.

As for the draftniks having other corners rated higher, I can give you dozens upon dozens of examples of players taken ahead of where their ranking had them going that have become pro bowlers or very solid starters, while the higher rated players are out of the NFL or close to it.

As it is, it seems like people are acting like we trade our 1st rounder every year for 3 3rd rounders or something. The two times we've moved 1st rounders into the next draft, it landed us the heart of our defense, Wilfork and Mayo. Again, I don't see what we've done that is so wrong.

 

[kdels62]

I have to disagree with you. The "worst" 1st round pick we've made during the Belichick era would probably be a toss-up between Maroney and Ben Watson. As several people have mentioned in this thread, if they're the worst, we've done a fantastic job.

The only time we ever moved out of the 1st round was 2009. We ended up still getting Darius Butler which was who a lot of mock drafts had us taking in the first place.

As for the draftniks having other corners rated higher, I can give you dozens upon dozens of examples of players taken ahead of where their ranking had them going that have become pro bowlers or very solid starters, while the higher rated players are out of the NFL or close to it.

As it is, it seems like people are acting like we trade our 1st rounder every year for 3 3rd rounders or something. The two times we've moved 1st rounders into the next draft, it landed us the heart of our defense, Wilfork and Mayo. Again, I don't see what we've done that is so wrong.

I don't think anyone doubts the great drafting the Pats did in the early days of the BB era. The thing is back then your team's front office had a "whatever means necessary" kinda mentality and that's how they acquired the people that they wanted and clearly their scouting was better than anyone else's in the league. The thing is now and the last few years, the Pats trade back and pass on blue chip prospects in the first and second round, but they aren't drafting the gems in their place as they were before. Instead you're getting what everyone assume you would get by trading back and that's a lot of JAGs. Obviously right now you can't know if they're real busts but it's easy to see why fans would get upset by the lack of immediate results and long term security.

The other issue is that the Jets have taken the opposite road and are getting returns on their picks and since let's be honest fans of both teams are always watching each other it creates this feeling of why not us, hence the people who make statements like "how long can you fallback on the champions you won for our once downtrodden franchise." I'm paraphrasing but what the OP said is just as ridiculous.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Even though the original poster seems to think this is black and white, he does raise a good point. Why don't the Patriots continue to do what works best for them? Sure, the value argument makes sense on paper, but in reality, look at our first round picks in the BB era through '08.

Richard Seymour
Daniel Graham
Ty Warren
Vince Wilfork
Benjamin Watson
Logan Mankins
Laurence Maroney
Brandon Meriweather
Jerod Mayo

When Laurence Maroney is the worst of 9 players, that's pretty damn good, considering he is an average NFL running back who has had some injuries. All of these other guys (with the possible exception of Watson) have contributed to the team's success and earned numerous honors.

When you look at the later rounds of the draft, the Patriots, like any other team, have had their share of hits, but also have tons of misses. I'm not talking about guys who didn't become stars; I'm talking about guys they've just whiffed on. For the sake of making this simple, let's look at the 2nd and 3rd round, which are usually the picks they trade for when sacrificing their position in the 1st round.

Adrian Klemm
J.R. Redmond
Matt Light
Deion Branch
Eugene Wilson
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Ellis Hobbs
Nick Kaczur
Chad Jackson
David Thomas
Terrence Wheatley
Shawn Crable
Kevin O'Connell

The '09 and '10 drafts may prove to be more valuable, but virtually all of these players were deemed "steals" at the time they were drafted. Of these 14 players, Light and Branch are the only ones whose talent and accolades could be considered worthy of the actual "steal" designation. Meanwhile, O'Connell, Crable, Wheatley, Thomas, Jackson, and Johnson barely saw a snap with the team.

The fact the Patriots have had so much success in the first round makes me wonder why they are so eager trade down.

It's always bad when the analysts praise the Patriots for a great draft, saying they made the "smart" decision. In recent years, the media has gotten out of control, proclaiming Belichick the king of every draft, when in fact these were some of the worst picks of any team in the league. Hopefully Vollmer will continue to prove to be a true "first-round value" who dropped into the second round, but until that happens, the last player they've drafted who fits that bill was Deion Branch eight years ago. Yes, eight.

I don't understand your argument. None of the 2nd-3rd rounders you mentioned were taken in place of a 1st rounder. We didn't trade out of the 1st round to take Eugene Wilson or Matt Light, we used our 2nd round picks. In Wilson's case we moved up and in Light's case we moved down in the round. They weren't "in place of" picks, they were "in addition to."

As for you saying that "virtually all" those picks were considered steals at the time, I have to politely but feverishly disagree. Branch and Johnson were both considered major reaches. Branch worked out, Johnson didn't. Hobbs, Wheatley, O'Connell and Hill were all looked at in a negative light.

IMO the majority of us would have been at least ok with us taking Butler in the 1st round in 2009. A lot of mocks had us taking him or another corner. As for McCourty this season, look at our track record with 1st round picks. Don't you think he stands to have a pretty good chance of becoming a very solid player if not great? Does it matter that much that we moved back a few spots? Don't we still look very good with all the 1st round picks we've made?

 

[AzPatsFan]

So you keep us waiting for hours on draft day with anticipation even though we all know that draft pick is getting traded or swapped for 2 2nd round picks.. yea Value. The next day, the so-called football experts rave about how BB is a genius. Part of me wants to believe that and his record from part years supports his case. (how long is this part record card is going to last? does it have an expiration date? yea he has SB rings but how long can you use that to make up for his draft woes?)

So now you got all your "value"d 2nd and 3rd round draft picks... quantity over quality (when is that ever a good thing??)
The best analogy I could come up with is someone who's been given $25k to buy a new car. He browses the lot, tests drives a couple but then says "nah Im just going to buy to used cars for $12.5k. I will end up with two cars instead of one and odds are that one of them will last and give me good production"
Both cars sh%t the bed and you end up with nothing (I wanted to use another expression but I dont want to get banned)

I think what happened this weekend with the roster cuts is a blessing... maybe they ll realize "HEY what we are doing here just aint working"
because the philosophy that they have been preaching for the past 3-4 drafts got a pretty good smack.

McKenzie, Burgess.... three draft picks (including 2 3rd rounders) gone bye bye!!!!
what if they just drafted where they were... you could probably have Rey Maualuga, Clay Mathews as your LBs... that is just a sample. Im sure I could find more players they missed out on by trading down.

Yea I know they've hit on some players(edelman, volmer..etc) and they've stayed pretty competitive but we are not talking about the freaking Detriot lions here... we r talking about a super bowl contender team. Staying competitive isnt good enough (maybe they r trying to change our perception) but keep in mind you still have one of the best quarterbacks on that team and I dont think they are giving him a good chance to win another ring.

They've missed on some draft picks so bad, look where the defense is right now. Dont tell me they are going to get better throughout the year... the talent just isnt there. Look at the LB and DE's depth chart... actually you will find something positive... VALUE... and tons of it but last time I checked Value cant sack the quarterback and cant cover wide receivers.

Value... please!!!

Please Go Away.

Choose another team to root for who uses a drafting scheme and playing scheme that you like. Pleease..

The Jets always trade their entire draft for one or two players. Then they pick Darell Revis and Nick Mangold. You can't hadly lose!
Oh and forget about, Darren Robertson. Or Mr. Gholston. And Mr. Schnegal.

Blitz like mad, Get a sack. Or give up a TD.

And have an awesome exciting pass rush that collects an awesome 32 sacks. I'am sure you'd be much happier there. You wouldn't have to put up with that horrible Belichick running the Draft, either. Rex is an all time HOF Coach.

Then you could scream your head off !!!

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

I don't think anyone doubts the great drafting the Pats did in the early days of the BB era. The thing is back then your team's front office had a "whatever means necessary" kinda mentality and that's how they acquired the people that they wanted and clearly their scouting was better than anyone else's in the league. The thing is now and the last few years, the Pats trade back and pass on blue chip prospects in the first and second round, but they aren't drafting the gems in their place as they were before. Instead you're getting what everyone assume you would get by trading back and that's a lot of JAGs. Obviously right now you can't know if they're real busts but it's easy to see why fans would get upset by the lack of immediate results and long term security.

The other issue is that the Jets have taken the opposite road and are getting returns on their picks and since let's be honest fans of both teams are always watching each other it creates this feeling of why not us, hence the people who make statements like "how long can you fallback on the champions you won for our once downtrodden franchise." I'm paraphrasing but what the OP said is just as ridiculous.

I think it's too early to say that our approach of moving back isn't working. Before 2009, we had never moved back in the 1st round. We moved 1st rounders into the following year and that landed us Wilfork and Mayo.

So we're looking at two seasons of a trade back approach. McCourty hasn't played a down of football yet (and aside from a terrible game against the Rams looks like he'll have a big and immediate impact) and all of our 2nd rounders from last season have shown promise, some more than others. Again, I think it's quick to call it a failed experiement.

 

[Off The Grid]

If next year's first round picks bring in DE/OLB players to finish the youth movement on the defense, and then the team looks to address the offensive line and running back spots with the rest of the draft, I'd have to say that the strategy worked out pretty well, wouldn't you?

Beautifull.

I would've done it differently, myself, in MANY ways...But Coach Bill IS the Greatest in ALL the Land...and if he does, indeed, do PRECISELY that ~ hit DE, OLB, OLine, and OLine, in the first 2 or 3 Rounds, next year, and COMPLETE this 3 year Process...we could very well be poised for an EPIC 3 Year Run.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I wish I could one-star this thread multiple times.

Yes, BB makes mistakes. Yes, he's blown calls. Yes, some of his draft picks have sucked. But to look at individual decisions while ignoring the entire body of work is ridiculous.

Pointing out how he blew a second round pick without looking at all of the draft picks, or even comparing it to how other teams have done, is a very narrow-minded view. Those who complain about his over-aggressive attitude costing us the game on 4th and 2 against the Colts surely didn't mind the same attitude that gave Brady the opportunity to lead the team down the field against the Rams to win our first Super Bowl.

The OP talks about how BB is getting by on his past record, and I assume that to mean the 3 Super Bowls at the beginning of the decade.

I'm also assuming the OP somehow forgot this team went undefeated in the regular season 3 years ago, lost their HOF QB to injury in week 1 but still rallied behind a guy who hadn't started a game since high school to win 11 games 2 years ago, and won the division last season while re-building our defense. Just gliding by on his past record...

I can't really argue much else since the rest of the OP didn't seem to make much sense. But if you want to talk value, 3 Super Bowls, 4 conference titles, 6 division titles, 9 winning seasons, and an undefeated regular season in 10 years sounds like a real good value to me.

 

[Off The Grid]

Screaming, you talk alot of sense, but I have to warn you. I see you don't have alot of posts. My warning is, if you try to be open and honest on this board, you can - but ONLY if it's all roses and candy, and positive.

Your post was not, so you're going to get bombarded. Sorry to say. I appreciate your guts though.

"Guts, without Judgment...is waste of Guts."

~ Off The Grid, circa 2010

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I wish I could one-star this thread multiple times.

Yes, BB makes mistakes. Yes, he's blown calls. Yes, some of his draft picks have sucked. But to look at individual decisions while ignoring the entire body of work is ridiculous.

Pointing out how he blew a second round pick without looking at all of the draft picks, or even comparing it to how other teams have done, is a very narrow-minded view. Those who complain about his over-aggressive attitude costing us the game on 4th and 2 against the Colts surely didn't mind the same attitude that gave Brady the opportunity to lead the team down the field against the Rams to win our first Super Bowl.

The OP talks about how BB is getting by on his past record, and I assume that to mean the 3 Super Bowls at the beginning of the decade.

I'm also assuming the OP somehow forgot this team went undefeated in the regular season 3 years ago, lost their HOF QB to injury in week 1 but still rallied behind a guy who hadn't started a game since high school to win 11 games 2 years ago, and won the division last season while re-building our defense. Just gliding by on his past record...

I can't really argue much else since the rest of the OP didn't seem to make much sense. But if you want to talk value, 3 Super Bowls, 4 conference titles, 6 division titles, 9 winning seasons, and an undefeated regular season in 10 years sounds like a real good value to me.

That about sums it up. Unfortunately here these days pointing that out makes you a blind homer.

 

[JMarr]

That about sums it up. Unfortunately here these days pointing that out makes you a blind homer.

Maybe not a blind homer, just a master of the obvious.

Sure, they've had off-the-charts success since BB and Brady arrived. Anyone denying it?

 

[Reckedtrek]

The thing I don't understand is almost everyones' infatuation with labeling a 1st rounder as a "great" player and a second rounder as "pretty good" or whatever they hell people are saying. Any player from any round can become anything. The draft is a gamble at every pick. The round or position where a player is picked does not set the bar for how good or bad they'll be. The only thing a first rounder has over a second rounder is greater expectations.

I agree with what your saying, I was only making those general assumptions to simplify the point I was attempting to make. To me, the higher the earlier the pick, the higher the percentage is of the return of a quality player. The later the pick, the less likely it becomes.

Look at Hernandez. He has a great skill set but he dropped into the 4th. Not because he suddenly lost his skill set, but because he smoked some wacky Tabacchi in college, people questioned his general intelligence and dedication to being the best player he could be. IE the odds of him becoming a good player in the NFL got higher.

Obviously talent and ability and mind set are important there too. The more you have the more you increase your chances of success. The most important is determination. all we have to do is look at Tom Brady for proof of that.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I'm also assuming the OP somehow forgot this team went undefeated in the regular season 3 years ago, lost their HOF QB to injury in week 1 but still rallied behind a guy who hadn't started a game since high school to win 11 games 2 years ago, and won the division last season while re-building our defense. Just gliding by on his past record...

Apparently Felger forgot this too because today he said that this whole run is because BB got lucky on a 6th round draft pick and when Brady's done the run is done. I can never get through their call screener to tell Felger he's a moron probably because the screener knows Im calling to tell Felger he's a moron.

 

[shmessy]

Apparently Felger forgot this too because today he said that this whole run is because BB got lucky on a 6th round draft pick and when Brady's done the run is done. I can never get through their call screener to tell Felger he's a moron probably because the screener knows Im calling to tell Felger he's a moron.

Why does any thinking human being actually get mad at Felger?

It's like getting upset at the referee at a WWF match.

It's all theatre, folks.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Apparently Felger forgot this too because today he said that this whole run is because BB got lucky on a 6th round draft pick and when Brady's done the run is done. I can never get through their call screener to tell Felger he's a moron probably because the screener knows Im calling to tell Felger he's a moron.

Wasn't Felger down on Brady about three weeks ago?

Brady No Longer Great in The Playoffs?