I'd love to see some aggressive moves.
Belichick talked about how much he loved the 2011 team, and he may err toward keeping more marginal players, because they are good locker room presences, than normal. We'll see.
Number one on my list would be Calais Campbell. He's a very productive 3-4 DE, 72 tackles, 8 sacks, an amazing 10 passes defended and an interception. Arizona has a bunch of free agents on defense, and they'll try hard to re-sign Campbell. He would be a huge addition to the defense. I would make him the top target in free agency, outside Welker.
There are very limited options at edge rusher. The best is Cliff Avril. He is the right size, offers terrific speed, youth, explosiveness. If the Patriots cannot land him, you're looking at Anthony Spencer or the draft.
Neither would be cheap, but should cost less than Mario Williams.
There's not much at safety. Again, the Pats should look to the draft, or target a corner and keep McCourty at free safety.
There are a number of corners. Finnegan, Carr, Routt, Grimes, Marshall, Rogers, Thomas. Any of them would be upgrades. With five-seven good starters on the market, a team can wait for the first few to come off the board, and then get into the mix on the second tier.
If the Pats can get two new starters at DE, edge rusher, and CB, they will be in terrific position going into the draft.
With their current cap largess, coupled with reports that they could roll $6mm from 2011 into 2012, this could be the opportunity to reload for a final Brady run.
A defense like this:
Deaderick-Wilfork-Campbell
Ninkovich-Mayo-Spikes-Avril
Dowling-Chung-McCourty-Marshall
with a rookie rusher and DB, Arrington in the slot - that's a top 10 defense.