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Update of Hailredskins composite-4/3

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by jczxohn1, Apr 4, 2006.

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  1. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1st Round

    69 sites
    CB,LB,and RB still seen as the major areas of need. Biggest increase in RB, 15 additional mocks have the Pats picking RB in 1st rd., 12 of those going for D'Angelo Williams (up from 2).LenDale White also posted big gain from 1 mock to 8.Maroney dropped 2 from 7 to 5.
    LB projections remain strong, dropping from 27 mocks to 23. Of the big 3, Lawson, Carpenter and Greenway, Lawson gained from 5 mocks to 7, Carpenter fell from 7 to 5, Greenway from 5 to 3. 2or less-Wimbley, Kiwi, D. Jackson, Ryans (dropped from 5 to 2), and Hodge.
    Moderate interest in CB dropped from 13 first rd mocks to 11. Youboty the only gainer, from 2 to 4, Hill dropped from 7 to 4, Cromartie out, J. Williams (VT) and J,Joseph 2 and 1 respectively.
    6 1st rd picks at WR-Holmes of FlaSt had 3, Moss 2, CJackson 1.
    SS -Whitner of Ohio St had 2

    2nd Round

    Nothing solid here. On 3/7 24 sites had picks, this time I only found 18.
    Of the 16 players mentioned on 3/7, only R. Marshall held his ground, dropping from 6 picks to 5. Only 4 players were picked on 4/3 that had been on 3/7, making 9 new picks not mentioned before. Of the 18, CB seems the strongest position with 8 mocks selecting, 4 picks were for a RB, the rest scattered.

    3 rd round

    A few sites have posted 3rd rd. picks. For the #75 and #86 picks, 19 picks were made. By position, WR had 10, LB-5, RB-2, CB, DE, and S had 1 ea.

    My analysis: LB seems to be a consistent perceived need with the choice solidifying around Lawson. It's an obvious need and none were mentioned in the 2nd rd. Curious none were as many sites jumped on the DeAngelo Williams bandwagon due to FA RB signings by teams with lower picks than us. If we took DW, what about a LB in rd 2?
    The number of new faces in the 2nd rd was a surprise, maybe something to do with Combine or Pro Day results.

    This is the first yr I've gotten involved in the draft, and I don't know enough about the various mocks to rank their reliability, but I thought just tabulating the sheer numbers would be of some value.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2006
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I find they give me names to research, most have no clue, but they're good to kill time! :D
     
  3. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    What a tremendous amount of tabulation this entails!

    For some weeks i - another novice - have been musing over the possible value
    of a "meta-mock" - a compilation of all the real mocks (if real mock isn't excessively oxymoronic.)

    BIG piece of work ... which this approaches in spirit.
    I really don't understand the point of doing what i was musing on ... but i realize
    that it is a big job. So is this.

    Here is what is behind a kind of instinct that the "meta-mock" approach could be fruitful.
    In the summer of '04 i began compiling a database of published polls for the presidential election.
    Especially, state polls. State by state.
    Devised a weighting system. Then weighted by electoral college. Then weighted for timeliness.
    By the end of October, i had a "meta-poll" reflecting hundreds of thousands of respondents.
    The statistical reliability appeared much higher than any single published, national poll.

    By mid-September ... six weeks before the election ... the meta-poll stabilized ... identified the key, swing states exactly ... predicted the electoral college almost perfectly ... and came within a few tenths of 1% of the nationwide popular vote.

    That made me a believer in meta-studies.
    Kind of like those enormous medical studies ... which study no patients at all
    ... but only compile all the other studies that have been done on a topic of interest.
     
  4. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's some 2nd and 3rd rd picks I haven't noticed before:
    WR Aromashodu/Auburn
    WR Jennings/ W Mich
    RB Harenson (sp?)/ Wash St
    S Pollard /Perdue
    WR B. Williams/Wisc.
    S Addae/W Va
    CB J.Allen/ Ten
     
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