Welcome to PatsFans.com

Unemployment falls to 7.7 percent

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Kid~Brady, Dec 7, 2012.

  1. Kid~Brady

    Kid~Brady Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2009
    Messages:
    2,796
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,315
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +19 / 0 / -0

    This is good news, but wait for the "Nattering Nabobs of Negativity" to weigh in.. then it will be "ain't it awful".
  3. Ilikehappyppl

    Ilikehappyppl Rookie

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,743
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Great news!:rocker:
  4. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    7,582
    Likes Received:
    14
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    How many of these new jobs are temporary holiday jobs? They began recruiting heavily for them in November to be ready by black Friday and beyond here in the Berkshires. Indeed, the retail stores are full of temps up here right now. Maybe these aren't counted in the report, I really don't know
  5. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    9,626
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +12 / 1 / -2

    these posts of justification every time a person gets a job are funny.

    we'll see what happens when the libbies drive the bus off the fiscal cliff
  6. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,315
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +19 / 0 / -0

    You made my point...
  7. Kid~Brady

    Kid~Brady Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2009
    Messages:
    2,796
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Lol, I just posted it because I saw it while on the site. I just though the employment rate being at a new low was a "good" thing.

    Honestly, I think its both parties that will drive us off the cliff, not just one side. An agreement means that "each" side has to bring something to the table and compromise giving up some demand. Most Americans agree that the top 2 % should pay a little more in taxes, even some of the top 2 %. I see an increase on more top earners agreeing with this notion as well.

    I just don't see how anything that reports MORE jobs can be negative at all.
  8. Hebeill

    Hebeill Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,567
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

  9. Triumph

    Triumph Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    5,867
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -2

  10. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2005
    Messages:
    15,158
    Likes Received:
    14
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    A delightfully context-free blog post. Thanks, Triumph.
  11. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    The official rate's seasonally adjusted every year. It's also a full percentage point than the same point last year, using identical methodology.
  12. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

  13. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

    How many people have dropped out of the labor force over the past year PFiVA?

    Is our lowering unemployment rate due to more people working or is due to people dropping out of the labor force (discouraged workers that stopped looking)?

    The ONLY this news can be good is if more people are working.

    Hey everyone, let's lower the labor force so unemployment goes down....:rolleyes:

    This report says the labor force declined by 350,000. So even though our working age population has gotten larger, they cut the labor force.

    Smoke & mirrors.

    Does anyone here even read daily economic reports?
  14. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    7,582
    Likes Received:
    14
    Ratings:
    +15 / 0 / -0

    Thanks Mr.P. Now that I have a few minutes I looked it up. Last year it dropped(NOV) to 8.6 from 9 in Oct.

    This year it went from 7.9 to 7.7. I'm not sure if that means less retail jobs compared to last year or not. Too many variables for me to make any kind of statement out of it other than unemployment figures are lower than they were last year.
  15. Hebeill

    Hebeill Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,567
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    CNSNews.com) - The unemployment rate for civilian government workers plunged from 4.2 percent in October to 3.8 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as government added 35,000 to its taxpayer-funded payrolls during the month.As recently as July, the unemployment rate for government workers was as high as 5.7 percent, according to the BLS. Goverment workers took a big hit during the last four years. Back in sept. if you removed the gov. works from the unemployment stats the unemployment rate would have been around 5%.
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  16. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

    47...to me the kicker in this "positive" report is this little fact directly from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics official report

    Employment Situation Summary

    Guess most here just love smoke & mirrors.
  17. Hebeill

    Hebeill Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    1,567
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Its all pretty simple unless you don't want it to be. The bush tax cuts, an unfunded two trillion+ dollar unfunded war and a defense budget that is Twice what it was before 9/11 have put us in the spot we're in today.
    Get rid of the tax cuts for the 2%. The middle class are the job creators when they have money to spend. The wealthy don't spend nearly the same percentage even when the build a new mansion or buy a new yaht and the poor don't have any money to spend.
    Bring down the defense budget from $800 Billion back to %400 billion. What are we getting for that increased spending? Except for the f35 program i can't think of any big ticket item that cost 400 billion. if Afgan. costs $400 billion we need to get out Now.
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  18. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    9,626
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +12 / 1 / -2

    it's all those people who have advanced degrees in standing there with their hands out getting jobs to stand there with their hands out
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    All I keep saying is it's getting better, but not as fast as we want... that's just where we are.

    I mean, seriously, even the people who most want the economic numbers to look worse have to think back to 2009 and admit that we've come a certain distance from then, and we have a ways yet to go.
  20. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

    Very few people were dropping out of the labor force in 2009 though....

    Just for grins, take a look at the number of people that dropped out of the labor force since 2009 vs. the number of Americans who are actually unemployed and see how much that has changed.

    The number of Americans that are unemployed today (12M) isn't much different than the number that were unemployed in 2009 (13.7M).
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  21. Kid~Brady

    Kid~Brady Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2009
    Messages:
    2,796
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Unemployment rate drops to 7.7% as economy shrugs off Hurricane Sandy - The Washington Post
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  22. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    15,671
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    This is BAD! Verrrrrrrrrry Baaaaaaad!

    [​IMG]

    WHAT? Whaddaya mean I don't have a say in anything anymore? I'm the President!
  23. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,315
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +19 / 0 / -0

    As predicted the nattering nabobs of negativity all contributed their fair share.. ain't it awful..

    Only the right can successfully hijack good news and turn it into something really bad...

    Remember all those who claimed that the numbers were played with before the election, and right after the election the numbers would go way, way, way up??????

    [​IMG]
  24. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

    If you were wicked smaht like some of us, you'd realize this isn't really good news at all.



    So, tell us again what the good news is?
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  25. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    Let's talk labor force participation rates and whole numbers, rates first. The rates count the ratio of people participating in the labor force over the age of 16. There is no maximum age for labor force participation.

    Participation rates have been decreasing since the outset of the ahem recent unpleasantness. I have no argument with you about that. Now then: Social Security has found a huge increase in early filing (62 year olds). Obviously that's caused by discouraged worker effects overwhelming the well-established increasing retirement age behaviors also documented since the mid-80s.

    Participation rate, November to November, year over year:
    11/08: 65.8
    11/09: 65.0
    11/10: 64.5
    11/11: 64.0
    11/12: 63.6

    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

    So, the delta between '11 and '12 is .4; the delta between '08 and '09 was .8. Prior to '08, the rates were fairly stagnant. They bounced around, but went from 66.4 in '02 to 66.0 in '07.

    Well, then, there certainly could have been no relevant change in employment. It must all be accounted for in the stepped down workforce participation rate.

    Unless, of course, age cohorts -- people in the workforce by year of birth -- change in any way from year to year. It would have to be a big change, of course, between the size of age cohorts.

    I wonder if there's one of them around?

    Well, let's see. For this age cohort, full social security retirement age is 65, and early social security retirement is 62. So if there were a significant effect from this group retiring and therefore leaving the workforce, you'd have to posit a large increase in birthrates from about the mid-40s onward. That would mean a disproportionate impact in the labor participation rates independent of current occurences, although magnified by said occurences. You would need that disproportionate increase so that the proportionate change would be larger than if stable generational cohorts were simply providing a straight-line retirement -- in other words, no change to the rate, just a change to the number.

    It so happens that that describes exactly what happened to age cohorts born in the mid 40s in reality. Our present labor-rate participation corresponds exactly to what we would expect to happen regardless of the health of the economy.

    Live Births and Birth Rates, by Year — Infoplease.com

    Birth cohorts prior to 1945 -- Cohorts retiring in 2005 and 2000, using 65 as retirement age -- were 2.36 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The cohort retiring in 1946 -- the leading edge of the boom, retiring in 2011 -- was 3.47 million. By 1947 (the ones retiring at normal age in 2012) the number was 3.9 million. We're talking about a change of a million normal retirees per year in 2011, and a change of a million and a half by 2012, from expected retirements in previously "normal" years.

    Now, let's go to your "raw number of unemployed" delta of 13.7M in 2009 vs. 12M in 2012. Looks pretty stagnant. Wonder what the raw number in the labor force was?

    2009 153.8 M
    2012 155.3 M

    So your unemployed number decreased by 1.7M. Your number of in the workforce increased by 1.5 M, also pretty stagnant. What does employment look like?

    Graph: Total nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted)

    2009 129.9 M
    2012 133.9 M

    That is to say that from November 2009 to November 2012, we've gained 4 million jobs.

    So in comparative terms:
    - You have a fairly stagnant unemployment number compared to 2009.
    - You have a fairly stagnant workforce number compared to 2009.
    - You have nearly three times the number of jobs created as increase in the labor force (we've identified one source of slow growth of the labor force, because we're bleeding off members of that baby boom cohort.)
    - You have more than twice the increase in "newly employed" than you have decrease in unemployment -- again, talking about raw numbers.

    So read the data over and think it over. I've gotten you the raw #s to work with. Sometimes we talk in general terms and forget that getting the right number has to be data driven, and the data to identify a 4-year trend have to span 4 years.

    PFnV
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
  26. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    40,315
    Likes Received:
    19
    Ratings:
    +19 / 0 / -0

    The head of the "ain't it awful crowd" weighs in with a familiar refrain... remember the predictions of a huge increase after the elections.. guess you forgot about that.
  27. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    130,000 new jobs, despite a superstorm that wiped out a good chunk of the east coast, maybe?

    The number of employed grew, despite the presence of the same number of unemployed. Do that ad infinitum, and one day 12 million is 4% unemployment. Obviously that's not the way you're trying to get there, but if you're looking at economic growth, a two-point drop per month in the unemployment numbers puts you at 2.4% over a year.

    What are you going to complain about once unemployment is beneath the historical average? Still going to be ignoring a million or two more consumers who you can sell to... because the number you can't sell to decreased at a lower rate than you like?

    Quit moving the goalposts.

    PFnV
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2012
  28. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2007
    Messages:
    24,998
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +37 / 0 / -7

    If you want to be such a detail guy, then go find the data that shows jobs added by type. Heck, if you really want to go all the way on this, let's see if the jobs added are REAL jobs or are many of them part time.

    BTW....Obama's adminstration recently changed the definition of full time jobs to be around 29 hours when in the past it had to be a miniumum of 32 hours/week.

    How many of the jobs added are crappy jobs that require many to remain on gov't assistance vs full time jobs with good pay and benefits?

    We know for a fact we aren't adding jobs in manufacturing or construction. Nor is the financial industry adding jobs. So where are these jobs being added? I wonder if many businesses have cut down hours of former full time employees so they all have less than 29 hours so they don't have to provide health insurance and just added more part time help.

    Also, you need to factor in population growth into your break down below.

    Here are some other facts a guy I know emailed to me.

    Hours and Wages are down, lots of 29 hr per week $10 jobs whopee:

    Job Quality Vs Quantity: Number Of Jobs vs Average Hourly Earnings | ZeroHedge

    Number of employed people 25-54 back at 97 levels:

    Number Of Workers Aged 25-54 Back To April 1997 Levels | ZeroHedge

    People working instead of retiring 'working age' employment down millions from pre recession:

    Chart Of The Day: Jobs "Additions" By Age Group Reveals The Scariest Picture | ZeroHedge

    And yes, all the above are cold, hard FACTS. My point was that that not only is the unemployment rate going down MAINLY due to people leaving the workforce, but that the facts behind the total picture certainly is not "Good News".

    Finally, our gov't had already forecasted the rate of baby boomers leaving the workforce long ago but they keep moving the goal posts and changing the formula to fit their agenda.


  29. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    Yeahhhhhhh when people will take any job you offer, surprise surprise, the market's not paying top dollar.

    However, if you examine the match of the workforce to the skillset we need, you'd rapidly adopt a preference for job retraining and more money in STEM education. You'd also advocate more lax immigration policies, and a general personal reevaluation by Americans of our xenophobic attitudes. Lots of jobs in the US are going begging because we don't have the technical skills to fill them.

    Keep looking for that dark lining to the silver lining in the dark cloud. The sky, no doubt, is falling. Despite the fact that all the numbers say otherwise.

    PFnV
  30. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2006
    Messages:
    19,528
    Likes Received:
    41
    Ratings:
    +43 / 0 / -2

    PS, I love how "Tyler Durden" in your little blog link posts an increase in the number of workers 55-69 with the title "people working instead of retiring."

    The actual data I could find on this say the reverse: The discouraged worker effect was causing early social security claiming, pretty much a proxy for retirement.

    What Ol' Tyler has done there is noticed that people aged 55-69 in general are increasing, reflected in an increase in the workforce size, measured against previous years. The pig moving through the python, old chap.

    Tyler Durden has discovered that there was, in fact, a baby boom.

    Bet he searched for ages 65-69 and realized that the numbers were the opposite of the scare chart he wanted.

Share This Page