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UFC 123 Predictions!

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by TBradyOwnsYou, Nov 12, 2010.

  1. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    This event takes place in Detroit on Nov 20th and will air 2 free fights on SpikeTV previous to the PPV.

    Spike card

    Middleweight bout: Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Mu√Īoz
    Anyone else remember Munoz's debut? :) While I don't expect it to happen the exact same way, I am taking Simpson by TKO.
    Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster
    Brown should work Foster. Brown by TKO.

    Main Card

    Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon
    This should be a good battle to start the card. I think Sotiropoulos wins the decision because Lauzon spends too much time trying to spell his name.
    Light Heavyweight bout: Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch
    I think Davis takes it to the ground and keeps it there. Davis by decision.
    Middleweight bout: Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falc√£o
    I know absolutely nothing about Miaquel, so I have to go Harris by _____?
    Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn
    I tell you what, it's weird not seeing this as a title fight. Edgar may have Penn's number, but I don't see Hughes having it any more. I just think Penn is much closer to his prime still than Hughes and if the last two shelackings Penn took have motivated him at all, he should be able to handle Hughes. Penn by submission.
    Light Heavyweight bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida
    Come on, really? The worst game planner ever vs the ellusive karate ninja that is Machida? Quinton will get worked and worked good. Machida by KO.
     
  2. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

    Lauzon vs Sotiropolous-excellent grappling matchup but Sot has the upper hand, Ill take him by UD unless Joe comes out and totally outclasses Sot on the feet.
    Harris by better wrestling TKO
    Davis by better wrestling Submission
    Penn by UD, I think this is Penn controlling the fight with his jab and stuffing matts TD's but I actually wouldn't be shocked if Matt submits him in the second or third.
    Machida out strikes Rampage to a Unanimous decision if Page is lucky, if not he gasses out and gets TKO'd Rampage's chin will keep him awake.
     
  3. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    The last two fights are obviously the most important, but I think so not so much as who wins, but by how the fighters fight.
    Will Penn actually seem to care? Will he come with yet another half assed attempt and get a loss? Where does his career go then? Lightweight is done, if he can't beat an over the hill Hughes, he stands no chance in welterweight. If he wins a weak decision, virtually the same questions. Basically, at this point in their careers, if Penn gives 100% he should finish Hughes 7 of 10 times I think. Penn is a dogfaker!! :D
    Machida has shown through his career he is content to sit back and let you destroy yourself. Rua showed us the key to Machida's defensive encryption. Can Rampage, another notorious dogfaker, actually come in with not only a good game plan, but will he be able to adjust it midfight if it's not working? Can he avoid the lethal counter attacks long enough to get his game plan going? Also, will Machida, who made a career off of his style only to see it crumble to bits in his last two fights, be able to come out with something fresh? Or, does he realize Rampage is the perfect fighter for Machida's counterpunches-of-doom style and go back to his old game? But if he does, will he be able to get back out of that mindset when he eventually gets a rematch with Rua?
    Basically, all 4 of these fighters are previous champions who have used the same styles for most of their careers. For the most part, it has worked well for them. Who will be able to reset their careers and adjust their well ingrained games to become relevent in MMA again? (While this might be a bit premature of a statement for Machida who has only lost to Rua, and only recently, I think it's a very good assessment of the other fighters and I could see it also applying to Machida as well in the future if he can't change)
     
  4. BC Eagle

    BC Eagle Rookie

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    Spike card

    Middleweight bout:
    Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Mu√Īoz


    This should be an interesting fight both on paper and in the Octagon.

    Both fighters were not far removed from being considered blue chip prospects and on the cusp of breaking through into the top tier.

    Both saw their upward growth come to a halt in their last fights (Munoz-- a lackluster outing loss to Yushin Okami; Simpson-- a disappointing TKO defeat at the hands of Chris Leben).

    Both come from extensive wrestling backgrounds.

    What this fight boils down to may be who has the better stand up and how much ground control can be used.

    I'd give Munoz the slight advantage in wrestling, however in MMA wrestling/grappling, Simpson gets the nod.

    Standup, I think Simpson has better standup. Munoz has more power behind his punches, but Simpson is more crisp and thorough with his.

    I see it going the distance, and Simpson getting back in the win column.

    Simpson by Decision

    Welterweight bout:
    Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster


    This fight well could be a "loser-leaves-the-UFC" fight.

    While it's hard to assume either fighter is on the hot seat due to the fact that neither have dull fights, realistically speaking both find themselves in just that spot.

    Foster's UFC career has, if nothing else, been consistent. He either wins in spectacular fashion or loses in spectacular fashion. This seems to hold true to course of his MMA career, as in 19 professional fights, he's yet to have one go the distance. Furthermore, none of his fights have even gone to the THIRD ROUND in over three and a half years. That being said, exciting fighter or not, a loss bumps him to under .500 in the promotion. While the welterweight division is dominated by Georges St. Pierre, the division as a whole is stacked to the point where fighters with sub .500 records promotionally run the risks of being given the pink slip.

    Brown is another who lives up to the "fail to disappoint" crowd, and win, lose or draw always puts his best fight forward. However Brown is coming off back-to-back losses. A third straight loss, which would bump his professional record to 11-10 (which is perhaps as misleading as any record out there, but I digress) might be sign for his walking papers.

    This one is going to come down to whether Foster is able to control the pace of the fight with his wrestling. A striking battle with Brown is not in his best interests, and will lead to a loss and subsequent departure. On the ground, Brown is solid with submissions, but when being smothered and against superior grapplers, it's a different story. We saw both Ricardo Almeida and Chris Lytle in subsequent fights put Brown on his back and dominate. Foster's chances of winning are based off him doing just this.

    While Foster isn't on the same level of grappler as these two, his wrestling should be enough to overwhelm Brown when he wants to take the fight to the ground and should be enough for him to score a stoppage in the second round due to ground strikes.

    Foster by TKO, Round 2

    Main Card

    Lightweight bout:
    George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon


    Make no mistake about this.. I really like Lauzon (minus his awful nickname, but that's neither here nor there) and will be emphatically rooting for him.

    I think he's a talented fighter who still has a ton of upside and has yet to come close to reaching his full potential, which speaks volumes because he's pretty darn good as is. He's also exciting as hell, having either KO or Fight Of The Night bonuses paid out to him in six of his eight UFC fights.

    That said, I don't like this matchup for him. Sotiropolous is a very stout grappler. In his last two fights, he's outgrappled Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino, both of whom I feel are better than Lauzon in that category.

    If Lauzon keeps it standing, I see him winning this fight.

    Unfortunately, I don't see him being able to keep it standing.

    Again, make no mistake-- the fight can hit the ground 100 times, I don't see Lauzon getting submitted, however I see him getting outworked en route to a decision defeat.

    Sotiropolous by Unanimous Decision

    Light Heavyweight bout:
    Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch


    While Jon Jones and Ryan Bader at this point seem to be the light heavyweight division's most heralded prospects, Phil Davis is right on par with them, but doesn't get nearly the hype. Between his extensive wrestling background (a high level of success on the Division I level), a quick start to his MMA career, and impressive performances thus far have him right on the cusp of being held in the same regard. A win over Boetsch will certainly open a lot of eyes and will take another step forward in put him on that level.

    With apologies to Brian Stann, Alexander Gustaffson and Rodney Wallace, this fight will be the toughest of his career to date. While Davis is an absolute stud wrestler, Boetsch himself wrestled collegiately on the Division I level at Lock Haven University. Also, by previous fights, he's proven he's by no means a slouch when it comes to wrestling and has quality striking to boot. For the first time, Davis will face someone where he won't have a major advantage in the grappling department.

    This one comes down to how much top control Davis will be able to get. I DO think, while there's not a huge gap, he IS a better wrestler than Boetsch and I forsee him scoring enough takedowns and keeping Boetsch at bay enough to score a decision victory.

    Davis by Unanimous Decision

    Middleweight bout:
    Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falc√£o


    Here's what you need to know about Falc√£o.. He hits.. HARD. He also has good kicks and fast hands that connect with bad intentions. In 28 professional fights, he has yet to go to a decision. Furthermore, he has yet to see one of his fights make it out of the first round since 2008, and hasn't been past the second since 2007 (the only time in his career). He has defeated 84 percent of his opponents by KO/TKO.

    The biggest question marks surrounding the Chute Boxe product are two fold: what's his takedown defense like and what's his stamina like? Can he withstand the strikers' nightmare (being put on his back and kept there) and how's he going to be chugging as the fight reaches the second and third round?

    Of course, Falc√£o-- appropriately nicknamed Big Rig, all it takes is one or two punches for him to turn Harris' lights out.

    While Harris can take abuse, there aren't many in the sport with strong enough chins to even THINK of standing up with Falc√£o. However, Harris isn't in the middle of a 10 fight win-streak (minus his loss to Amir Sadollah on The Ultimate Fighter 7, which isn't recognized as a loss being it was an exhibition) by mistake. He also knows that with a 3-0 record in the UFC, and the middleweight division wide open, one win will put him right up there into the mix of possible contenders.

    Whereas the striking advantage will go to Falc√£o, every other advantage seemingly is Harris'. I see him putting this fight to the ground often and grinding out a decision win.

    Harris by Unanimous Decision

    Welterweight bout:
    Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn


    This officially is being dubbed the rubber match between the two, with each holding a victory in the first two fights. However, wins and losses don't tell the full story in their duo of fights.. Penn manhandled Hughes with ease in their first fight and was well on his way to doing so in the second fight before he broke his rib cage and was ultimately defeated.

    Listen, ignore the cynics who say Penn is done. He's not. Remember, it was just a handful of fights ago ago that he absolutely embarrassed Diego Sanchez and thrashed Kenny Florian. In fact, outside of Frankie Edgar and Georges St. Pierre, the last fight where Penn was emphatically defeated in (yes, he lost to Hughes but again, he was dominating the fight before getting hurt) was in 2005 against Lyoto Machida.

    I have no reason to believe Penn is done and I won't buy those who say he is. Frankie Edgar had the answer (no pun intended) as did GSP.. Their quickness and shifty striking made Penn go outside of his comfort level. Matt Hughes isn't that kind of fighter.

    Penn finishes this one in the second with a submission. To me, he's the better fighter and Hughes doesn't have the style to beat him.

    Penn by submission, Round 2

    Light Heavyweight bout:
    Quinton Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida


    The commercial preview for this fight says everything: styles make fights.

    As this is indeed the case, this fight is a stylistic nightmare for Jackson.

    Jackson's offense, while hard to stop is pretty simple to figure out. He throws at full force, he tries to take you down and he charges straight ahead with a goal of knocking you out.

    Against someone like Machida, a style like that gets you chopped down and beaten.

    Keep this in mind.. Forrest Griffin was able to frustrate Rampage with kicks and body shots, and won the fight by keeping Rampage at bay. Rashad Evans was able to beat Rampage by keeping him limited with his attacks and by utilizing kicks and shifting. Needless to say, neither Griffin nor Evans are on Machida's PLANET when it comes to those skills, and Machida has made a CAREER by keeping opponents limited with their attacks. when it comes to striking and kicks, both Evans and Griffin were able to win by utilizing this offensive attack.

    Machida points his way to another decisive decision win.

    Machida by Unanimous Decision
     
  5. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Welcome Eagle! It's always nice to see another MMA fan around here!
    I question you this: Does Hughes, knowing that his strength (wrestling) puts him in arguably the worst possible position (in Penn's I-am-made-of-rubber-and-have-8-limbs-guard), try to keep this standing where everyone would agree he is still at a large disadvantange? What is his gameplan going in?
    I think that he has to be confident in his wresting and strength and trys to take it to the ground and just takes the risk of getting choked out (I think he is strong enough to avoid most joint or compression lock attempts from Penn, especially later in the fight).
    I think the only place he has an overwhelming advantage is conditioning, but with it only a 3 round fight I wonder how much he can make that matter.
    I think his best chance is to come out Guida style and just absolutely swarm all over Penn each and every round and hope (really, pray) that he can avoid getting finished doing this and that he has enough left himself in round 3 to try and finish it or at at least win on points.
     
  6. BC Eagle

    BC Eagle Rookie

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    Thanks TBrady! I've been following this sport for so long, I almost feel like I'm watching my kid get nominated Valedictorian of Harvard. I started following when it was in the stone ages, when Royce Gracie, Marco Ruas, Dan Severn, Ken Shamrock, Paul Varleans, Tank Abbott and company were "it". Needless to say, I'm amazed more and more each day of how this sport has grown in popularity in really a short period of time. I actually host an MMA Radio show weekly as we speak (have for about two years) and I'm stunned at how much it's even grown since I started the show. Getting to interview these up and coming stars and legends makes me feel like the sport only continues to grow, while its clear that the best is yet to come.

    If I'm Hughes, or cornering Hughes, I'm telling him to try and outpoint Penn. He doesn't have Frankie Edgar's shiftiness or quickness, but he can do the short jabs, the brief exchanges, mix in a few kicks and get out of dodge. It may not be exciting, but it's really his only plan of attack if he wants to win the fight, in my opinion.

    Thing is, Penn has got incredibly underrated takedown defense and even better defense when put on his back. Frankie Edgar was able to take him down in their second fight, but only after he had Penn so flustered, that his game plan was completely out of whack and he wasn't prepared for it. St. Pierre did the same thing. I don't envision Hughes being able to, his style isn't built for that.

    I don't know if the stamina will play a factor this time to be honest. Penn was fresh in rounds 4 and 5 of his first and second fight with Edgar, he was just mind broke.

    To be honest with you, while that plan would work against many of fighters, I'm afraid if he bullrushes him Guida style, he plays right in to Penn's strengths and gets subbed or TKO'd.
     
  7. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

    I also agree with the last part, Diego bullrushed Penn and got clipped. He was never the same in that fight, terrible Idea Penn has too much power and defensive boxing to try that. Sherk also tried to shoot in on BJ at the beginning of their fight and it was stuffed. IMO the key for hughes is to mix it up with kicks and clinch against the fence early.
     
  8. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I just don't see how Hughes or his corner is convinced that his stand up is good enough to outpoint Penn.
    Get the clinch/lay him in to the fence, go for the takedown if you have it, if not, lay on him and force him to work and be uncomfortable constantly. If you can tire him out, or better yet, get in to his head, Penn will defeat himself.
     
  9. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Mike Brudenell picks the winners for UFC 123 | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
    Wow. If this guy is even remotely close to correct I will eat my shoe.
     
  10. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

  11. BC Eagle

    BC Eagle Rookie

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    Seeing Karo Pariysian's performance Saturday was painful to see. Knowing what I do about him, I'm far from a fan. Yet, it still pained me to see a guy that was one of the top welterweights in the sport not that long ago hit the skids he has hit.
     

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