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Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defending?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by bostonia3333, Sep 15, 2009.

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  1. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 Rookie

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    Two minutes left in the 4th quarter, what situation makes you more comfortable as a fan?

    1. Pats down by 4, 80 yds to go, obviously needing a TD

    2. Pats up by 2, 80 yds to go for other team

    Tough call, at this point I'd be more confident with Brady leading a methodical clock killing TD drive, leaving little time for the other team to mount any sort of comeback. Brady becomes a defensive player for the Pats that way. I initially thought 50 seconds was too much time he left on the clock and that was gonna kill us tonight. Pats got lucky and survived. Oh and that last play of the game was just nuts--no one talks about it because the Bills didn't score a TD, but still, what a crazy finish.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
  2. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    If it is a tough call, we don't have one of the top 10 or even top 20 defensive in the league.

  3. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady On the Roster

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    I will take the lead......if we give it up hope for a Brady miracle with what ever time is left.

    I would gather a guess that in general in the NFL that more 2 minutes drives fail than succeed.

    Why do we need a TD but the other team only need a FG kinda skews this discussion to scenario one before the debate begins. But either way I'll take the lead.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
  4. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    With all the questions on defense, i'll take Brady, and the offense to go 80 for a TD.
  5. letekro

    letekro Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    This is no contest. Offense hands down. But I think 90% of the teams in the NFL would say the same. Defenses are simply tired out at the end of the game and there is very little pass rush. You see it time and again. Most NFL teams move easily down the field in the last minutes of a game and it usually comes down to red zone D....Again, I'll take our offense over our defense in this situation.
  6. mesoslo

    mesoslo Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    It depends on what defense and offense we play against.

    If the defense is good but the offense sucks, I would rather have the lead, and vice versa.
  7. PatsFan24

    PatsFan24 Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    down with the ball, brady is the best player on the team and i want him on the field when the game is on the line
  8. Satchboogie3

    Satchboogie3 Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    I would have to look at the odds of the defense getting a stop vs the odds of a drive ending in a TD, then go with the greater odds (taking into account the team being faced).
  9. thewaylifeshouldbe

    thewaylifeshouldbe Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    This makes no sense. Defense and the other team needs to drive 80 yds for a field goal? How many timeouts does each team have?

    Assuming no timeouts, I say up 2 and defense.

    Assuming 3 timeouts, I say down 4 and offense.


    Come on though, admit it; this thread was a disguise to say you feel less confident in the D than the O.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
  10. smg93

    smg93 Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    Easy call for me - With Tom Brady, I'd definitely rather be 4 down as long as we have the ball. In the second option, being only 2 up means that the other side isn't 80 yards from pay dirt, it's probably more like only 45 - 50 yards.
  11. MrNathanDrake

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    Pats Offense > Pats Defense

    So I'd want the ball.
  12. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    6 out of 7 people who directly answered this question would take TFB with the ball. I thought this would be split 50/50 simply because the Pats need a TD.

    It is a tough call, but I agree with this and hope that's the situation in most close games this year. Brady's clock killing drives are a thing of beauty. Knowing how the defense has failed Brady in recent years, I think Brady will utilize the clock more, slow the game down, and keep opposing offenses off the field.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
  13. Satchboogie3

    Satchboogie3 Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    I still think it's a matter of statistics. Compare the % of drives that end in a TD for the offense vs the % of drives the defense surrenders a TD. I'm sure the stats are out there and I'd bet that the defense would give you the better chance at winning.
  14. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    Given the team and its recent history you gotta take the offense.
  15. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    Same here.

    We won 3 SBs and lost 1 SB + 1 AFCCG thanks to the timing of who had the ball at the right time.
  16. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    Take the points and play defense
  17. Wax Frog

    Wax Frog Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    All things being equal, I'd take the ball, as it gives you more direct control of your fate.
  18. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    It's very unscientific, but in recent years it seems that the offense has the advantage in this situation. Teams score too quickly all the time and the other team answers. It happened in the Chargers/Raiders game too. I think the defenses get tired. Particulary in Super Bowls recently teams seem to score too early, and the other team answers with a minute on the clock. The defenses just are toast. One of the things that I loved that the Patriots did at the end of both halves last night the Patriots really managed the clock well to leave as little time for their opponents as possible. Many teams see the clock winding down and try to rush. But in both halves last night the patriots ran plays to the middle of the field with lots of time left and then took much of the 40 second clock to wind things down. Those are the little things that win games.

    Here's the harder one for me. Go back to the Sunday night game -- Bears v. Packers. Packers have the ball, down by 2 points. The Bears have one time out left. Packers hit a wide open play to the wide receive with 1:11 left on the clock. He goes in for the touchdown.

    Is there a smarter play here? What if he sits down on the field on the one yard line, the Packers run two plays to use up the rest of the clock, and then kick a chip shot field goal? Which gives you a greater chance of winning? I think the field goal does. I think the odds of missing a chip shot are lower than the odds of the Bears mounting a game winning drive with 1:11 on the clock and one time out. If the Packers could have made it a 7 point game with a two point conversion, I would think differently. But the best they could do by scoring a touchdown, even with 2 points, is be up by 6. If the game is tied, by the way, I would definitely prefer the field goal over the possibility of overtime. With a tie game, even if you miss the chip shot with no time left, it's just overtime anyway.

    I love thinking about scenarios like this, and everyone always says, "no, you take the points when you can get them." I think the OP helps explain why this is not the right answer. A chip shot field goal is a 97 percent proposition. A game winning drive by the other team is better than a 3 percent proposition.
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
  19. BillPower

    BillPower Banned

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    We can NOT be beat in the last 2 minutes
  20. Freejet

    Freejet Rookie

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    Re: Two minutes left, would you rather be down 4pts with the ball or up 2pts defendin

    I am a Jets fan and believe our defense is better than our offense but there is NO WAY I want the ball in Brady's hands with the game on the line. I'd take our chances with your defense which I dont think is as dominant as it used to be.
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