Turnovers

[PatsFaninAZ]

So, for all we talk about everything, I wonder why turnovers don't get much play. In terms of predictors, it's pretty high on the list. The Patriots have lost the turnover battle 3 times this year -- they lost twice and won once (overtime).

I think maybe there's a perception there's a chicken-and-egg issue with turnovers. That is, you turnover more when you're losing and turnover your opponents more when winning. Probably true. Still, the stats don't lie and they are pretty remarkable this year.

In 9 wins, the Patriots have 3 turnovers. Three. Total. They have now gone 182:38 without a turnover -- the last one was in garbage time versus Cleveland. In their two losses, the Patriots have 6 turnovers. In other words, they have twice as many turnovers in the TWO losing games and they have in the NINE winning games. They have played seven games with zero turnovers and won them all.

In wins, the turnover margin is +16. In losses is -5.

 

[jmt57]

It's funny but when you see one of those 'keys to the game' whether it be from television announcers or a columnist, inevitably one of those keys will be "win the turnover battle", "don't turn the ball over", or something similar - and we collectively groan because that is such an extreme example of stating the obvious.

However, when it comes to ranking or evaluating a defense or an offense, turnovers a rarely mentioned for some reason. Yardage, time of possession, 3rd down percentage, number of first downs, yards per carry, yards per pass attempt, red zone percentage, quarterback rating, pass completion percentage, and probably some other stats I've forgotten get mentioned more often than takeaways, giveaways and turnover differential.

It's very odd how such a strong indicator of winning and losing gets mentioned less often than those other stats.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Very important stat and one that has proved to be very contributory in our losses to the Jets. If no one turns the ball over in this game I think the Patriots have the advantage. If the Patriots turn it over more than the Jets then I think we will be giving them the edge simply by feeding that emotionally charged momentum that they thrive on. While the Jets seem to have been sleep-walking through some recent wins I don't think they will show up that way on MNF and we can not afford to let them be anything more than frustrated for the entire 60 minutes.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I like turnovers. My favorite is blueberry. I want more turnovers!!!!!

 

[jah]

I like turnovers. My favorite is blueberry. I want more turnovers!!!!!

Raspberry...

 

[WinstonSmith]

Turnovers are key factors in determining the outcome of a game but are not as predictive as say point differential or yardage; turnovers are more arbitrary - especially fumble recoveries.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Turnovers are key factors in determining the outcome of a game but are not as predictive as say point differential or yardage; turnovers are more arbitrary - especially fumble recoveries.

Well, I'm guessing you won't get an argument on point differential. I'd agree with you that point differential is, by definition, 100 percent predictive of who will win.

But as for yardage differential, it's meant very little for the Patriots this year. The team with the greater differential has gone 6-5 in the Patriots' games this year. Some games, it's been very close even though the score has been a blow out. For example, the Patriots only outgained the Lions by about 40 yards. Miami had over 100 yards in yardage differential but lost by a huge margin. San Diego had nearly a 200 yard advantage but lost the game.

Turnovers, on the other hand, have been very predictive. The team winning the turnover battle in Patriots games this year is 10-1. The only loss was the Patriots against the Ravens, where we eeked out the win and easily could have lost.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Well, I'm guessing you won't get an argument on point differential. I'd agree with you that point differential is, by definition, 100 percent predictive of who will win.

But as for yardage differential, it's meant very little for the Patriots this year. The team with the greater differential has gone 6-5 in the Patriots' games this year. Some games, it's been very close even though the score has been a blow out. For example, the Patriots only outgained the Lions by about 40 yards. Miami had over 100 yards in yardage differential but lost by a huge margin. San Diego had nearly a 200 yard advantage but lost the game.

Turnovers, on the other hand, have been very predictive. The team winning the turnover battle in Patriots games this year is 10-1. The only loss was the Patriots against the Ravens, where we eeked out the win and easily could have lost.

My bad – I wasn’t very clear. I agree that turnovers are one of the leading factors that determine a game but think that they are not as predictive of future success as other leading indicators – such as total point differential (for the season) or yardage.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

My bad – I wasn’t very clear. I agree that turnovers are one of the leading factors that determine a game but think that they are not as predictive of future success as other leading indicators – such as total point differential (for the season) or yardage.

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, I agree. I meant predictive of who will win the game.