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Trying to Understand the Ryan Mallet pick


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This.


If you think Malle and O'Connel are comparable, you're not qualified to be in this conversation.

Watch some of the film of Mallet breaking down tape. Then watch an interview with Kevin O'Connel. Mallet is a first round QB who has some drug rumors surrounding him. Kevin O'Connel is a big strong kid who never played in a complicated offense, and it turns out, wasn't bright enoug to.

But they're both qb's and both drafted in the Siam round(?) So they're the Siam guy.
there are a lot of people who basically look back AT what they're familiar with and equate every new situation with that.

Btw, excuse any odd typo as I'm on my 'smart'phone and it likes to insert stuff like Siam for Siam *goddamnit* and thai for 'this'
 
And FWIW Brady has 4 years left on his contract.

This is completely irrelevant though. Whats relevant is how long Brady can play effectively, and play without major injury. The Patriots need to be ready incase Brady suddenly tears his labrum, or whatever. As guys get older, they take longer to heal, and they get hurt more often.


Favre had 4 years left when the Packers drafted Rodgers. And they spent a first rounder on him.
 
This.


If you think Malle and O'Connel are comparable, you're not qualified to be in this conversation.

Watch some of the film of Mallet breaking down tape. Then watch an interview with Kevin O'Connel. Mallet is a first round QB who has some drug rumors surrounding him. Kevin O'Connel is a big strong kid who never played in a complicated offense, and it turns out, wasn't bright enoug to.

Video of a QB breaking down tape is not nearly as valuable as his ability to adapt and adjust to defenses under pressure and execute precisely and correctly consistently at NFL game speed while running a sight adjusted offense.

The only comparison being made is that a QB being drafted in the third (or being graded as a 1st as some scouts and teams actually also had KOC graded...) doesn't assure even a modicam of success at the next level. Measurables talent is just a small part of the equation when it comes to selecting football players. And beyond arm strength and besides some character concerns, Mallett has some other holes in his game. All of the first round graded QB's in this class had holes in their games... None of them will succeed unless they can patch them. Mallett's have to do with footwork related mechanics and inconsistent decision making under a lot less pressure than he's faced to date...
 
This is completely irrelevant though. Whats relevant is how long Brady can play effectively, and play without major injury. The Patriots need to be ready incase Brady suddenly tears his labrum, or whatever. As guys get older, they take longer to heal, and they get hurt more often.


Favre had 4 years left when the Packers drafted Rodgers. And they spent a first rounder on him.

Favre had been threatening retirement for a couple of years already when GB finally pulled the trigger. They set up his final contract with that in mind so there would be little or no dead cap after 2006. Only he screwed with them for a few more years because he's wired that way...

Had he been playing well (he wasn't) and talking about another ten years instead of annual retirement, they would not have drafted Rogers when they did. NE is under no such pressure. The Patriots already survived Brady tearing his ACL the first week of a season...with a 7th rounder at the helm who hadn't played since HS but had worked at mirroring Brady for 4 years...

Brady replaced a first round graded arm, you're not likely to replace him with one. And if you draft one he's likely long gone before Brady even begins to contemplate retirement.
 
Video of a QB breaking down tape is not nearly as valuable as his ability to adapt and adjust to defenses under pressure and execute precisely and correctly consistently at NFL game speed while running a sight adjusted offense.

Completely agree. Which is why you should go and take a look at some film of Mallet breaking down his game tape, where he is making multiple reads, dealing with hot routes on both sides of the formations, site reads, etc.

He was the best QB in the draft at that. Of course he has issues, but hes a damn site better prospect than the Pats have had in a long time.


O'Connel and Mallet aren't similar prospects at all.
 
Interesting scenario:

Right now Mallet has to get over himself and incorporate into his reportedly self-centered mindset exactly where he is. Let's say he does that.

Here are his reported characteristics:

- tendency to screw up. Published reports are all just heavy drinking and being a "me" guy because at the college level everyone thought he was God's gift to QBs.

- incredibly hard worker, very football smart, SOC "son of a COACH"

- as mentioned, maturity/ego problem

- Physical skills off the chart

- tendency to make favre-esque bad decisions

He's exactly what we'd all be screaming we needed had we never seen what happens when you've got a talented kid who's not publicly arrogant.

Tom's the "nice kid" that people accuse of being arrogant even when he won't even talk to the press outside the podium he's on, except once in 2008 or so when he said starvation might be more important than the NFL or something, and everybody was calling for his head.

Mallet, as of now, according to what's been heard & what's known, is a jackass that can throw. In fact I don't know that any receiver that hasn't been catching Brady passes a couple of years will be able to catch Mallett passes anyway. If Mallet does follow Brady, at least our receivers will be Mallett-ready, which is more than most teams would be able to say.

Now here's an interesting point:

Favre famously refused to have much to do w/Rodgers. He said it's not his job to train his replacement.

What Favre says out loud is usually an exagerrated, emotional, drama-queen version of what must be going on in anyone's mind. He just never had any filter, and did not understand that the edge of the universe is not defined by his own skin.

My expectation is that "team guy" Brady goes into it being Mr. Mentor, if Mallett indeed emerges as the "heir apparent" based on something other than draft order.

Let's assume the skills translate, he's smart enough, and he even makes better decisions.

Still, what happens if the maturity's not there?

What you hope is he says "Hmmm greatest coach of all time, greatest QB of all time -- " or at least, valid arguments to be made for both -- "finally, these are jedi I can consider my mentors."

What if he's so farkin emotionally stunted that he can't see that?

I don't see that happening. But what if physical and mental skills progress to be a match for Brady at the NFL level; they're working on him as the "next Brady"; But he insists on Ryan being Ryan?

What do you do in 3 years if Ryan = Tom on the field, but Mallet continues to be a flaming butthole to his teammates, the general public, et al., off the field? (If indeed this tendency is not overblown?)

Do you go with a nice guy at the end of his career, or a flaming jackass with a future?

Just woolgathering before work. It won't matter for a while.... and likely this won't be our decision anyway, for various reasons.

But it'll be an interesting transition, regardless. Ryan ain't Tom. He's Ryan. No guarantee that that will ever matter -- just like it's only so important that Matt wasn't Tom.

But it does make you think... there's a what-if here.

No fair saying he'll be humbled by Tom & Bill's influence. Hell, we haven't even gotten to the point where Mallett convinces Brady to let his hair down so to speak and have a little fun every now and then :eek:

PFnV
 
...

Bill's goal here extends beyond locating replacement HOF QB's. It is to create a system that is largely self sustainable, which is why I wouldn't anticipate ever seeing Mallett starting in it. What Bill wants in the QB position is a cerebral, poised, thoughtful, coachable, accurate, consistently good decision maker

...

Mallett is the same thing KOC was. A value pick with the potential to both serve a purpose here and create a dividend down the line. But before he can do either he has to prove he can at least back up Hoyer if not make him expendable.

100% agree with your final sentence (highlighted).

We get way ahead of ourselves if we try to envision Mallett either as Brady's successor or as a guy who is destined to be gone from NE, which is why I also disagree with your other comment that I also highlighted.

You might turn out to be right, but right now we just don't know what this guy will be. Come to think of it, we really don't know what BB truly thinks of Hoyer, though the Mallett pick could suggest that Coach hasn't settled on Hoyer either as a Brady successor or even as a Brady backup who can give us a chance at another 11 win season if TB goes down.

We have to let this play itself out.

I do think we can be 100% certain that Mallet will "get the memo" (whenever he's finally allowed on campus in Foxboro) that it's Belichick's way or the Highway and that not even a HOF-caliber WR like Moss got an exception to that rule. Whether Mallett also "gets the message" is what we will all be watching.

Beyond that, all we can know at this point is that Mallett will either be cut for attitude or lack of development, an acceptable #2 here to Brady, trade bait or Brady's successor.
 
100% agree with your final sentence (highlighted). We get way ahead of ourselves if we try to envision Mallett either as Brady's successor or as a guy who is destined to be gone from NE, which is why I also disagree with your other comment that I also highlighted. You might turn out to be right, but right now we just don't know what this guy will be. Come to think of it, we really don't know what BB truly thinks of Hoyer, though the Mallett pick could suggest that Coach hasn't settled on Hoyer either as a Brady successor or even as a Brady backup who can give us a chance at another 11 win season if TB goes down. We have to let this play itself out. I do think we can be 100% certain that Mallet will "get the memo" (whenever he's finally allowed on campus in Foxboro) that it's Belichick's way or the Highway and that not even a HOF-caliber WR like Moss got an exception to that rule. Whether Mallett also "gets the message" is what we will all be watching. Beyond that, all we can know at this point is that Mallett will either be cut for attitude or lack of development, an acceptable #2 here to Brady, trade bait or Brady's successor.

Hoyer was never being considered for the successor job. Neither was KOC although before he got cut many here still insisted he certainly was drafted with that in mind... Bill is looking for value. That requires that the selection either be projectable to backup Tom fairly seemlessly (at least short term) or be developable into something someone will value as more than a 4th string information source and dig captain for a day... He's gotten value at the position a couple of times. Cassel as 4 year backup and outstanding (by league standards) short term replacement whose performance netted a 2nd in trade. Hoyer has already provided seemingly insane value as the lone backup to Brady for two seasons. He may yet add dramatically to that value. KOC was a waste of draft capital, time and money. It remains to be seen what Mallett will turn out to be.

The similarity I see to KOC beyond draft position is that he's not a naturally good fit for the position in this system out of the gate, so that leads me to believe Bill is hoping to achieve value in another way. Clean up his rep and his footwork and teach him what it takes to be a pro and see if that alone doesn't boost his value. It won't be easy though because of where it started. I would think you'd have to land a 2nd in 2012 or maybe a 2012 3rd and a conditional 1st in 2013 just to break even for what you could have traded out for. The whole coaches son connection concerns me, I hope Bill didn't let emotion cloud his judgement. I also hope that all the Tebow talk last year that cost Josh dearly was hogwash, but who knows...
 
Hoyer was never being considered for the successor job. Neither was KOC although before he got cut many here still insisted he certainly was drafted with that in mind... Bill is looking for value. ...he's not a naturally good fit for the position in this system out of the gate, so that leads me to believe Bill is hoping to achieve value in another way. Clean up his rep and his footwork and teach him what it takes to be a pro and see if that alone doesn't boost his value. It won't be easy though because of where it started. I would think you'd have to land a 2nd in 2012 or maybe a 2012 3rd and a conditional 1st in 2013 just to break even for what you could have traded out for....

Seems like an awful lot of trouble and a big use of a lot of time that could have been spent somewhere else just to boost the guy's trade value...but we'll have to wait and see, I guess.
 
100% agree with your final sentence (highlighted).

We get way ahead of ourselves if we try to envision Mallett either as Brady's successor or as a guy who is destined to be gone from NE, which is why I also disagree with your other comment that I also highlighted.

You might turn out to be right, but right now we just don't know what this guy will be. Come to think of it, we really don't know what BB truly thinks of Hoyer, though the Mallett pick could suggest that Coach hasn't settled on Hoyer either as a Brady successor or even as a Brady backup who can give us a chance at another 11 win season if TB goes down.

We have to let this play itself out.

I do think we can be 100% certain that Mallet will "get the memo" (whenever he's finally allowed on campus in Foxboro) that it's Belichick's way or the Highway and that not even a HOF-caliber WR like Moss got an exception to that rule. Whether Mallett also "gets the message" is what we will all be watching.

Beyond that, all we can know at this point is that Mallett will either be cut for attitude or lack of development, an acceptable #2 here to Brady, trade bait or Brady's successor.


Well that kinda narrows down the possible options
 
Mallett is not a replacement for Brady but a replacement for Hoyer. I wanted a lower round project type like McElroy because those are the types we are good at improving and flipping. Mallett might turn into a malcontent and be simply cut just like OC was. I think a 3rd round pick is too high for a backup QB on THIS team, on any other team not so much. TB is so much better than the #2 that if he goes down again he will take our season with him. Mallett or no Mallett.


I thought Matt Cassel's 11-5 effort wasn't quite in the toilet...:rolleyes:
 
Maybe you guys missed this:

It Is What It Is » Bill Belichick: Ryan Mallett ‘definitely a football guy’

This is as close to gushing about a rookie by BB as I have seen.

Mallett met with the Patriots during the pre-draft process, and Belichick said he came away feeling that the quarterback was “an impressive guy to talk to.”

“He’s definitely a football guy. He’s a great kid to talk to. He’s very into football. You can’t wear him out — as long as you want to talk about it, he’ll be there. However many hours it is, he’s ready to go watch the next film or go talk about a new technique or read or whatever.

“His father is a football coach — he’s grown up in a football family. I can definitely relate to that. You either get sick of it or you marry into it and love it. I think he’s very much of a football person. Both his parents are educators. He’s a kid that’s eager to learn and has a great thirst for knowledge for football and for his position — there’s a lot going on there."

If you just go by looks, he should be playing a banjo somewhere in the Ozarks.
 
Another reason to draft him. You might be able to flip him for a much higher pick in 2 years.

Let's say that Brady does not get injured during the next two years. How does Mallet then improve his trade value?
 
Let's say that Brady does not get injured during the next two years. How does Mallet then improve his trade value?

That's easy, he won't. But they'll trade Brady.
 
Last year, the Boston Herald took a week to dig into all things Devin McCourty after the draft. This year, they're focusing on Ryan Mallett. There are some interesting pieces coming out of that.

Two in particular stood out.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » The Making of Mallett: Why Mallett woke up every morning and studied Tom Brady

Now Mallett has the chance to study Brady up close and personal.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » The Making of Mallett: How QB Ryan Mallett lost his U.S. Army All-American jersey

Maybe Mallett isn't as bad as he's been portrayed.
 
Last year, the Boston Herald took a week to dig into all things Devin McCourty after the draft. This year, they're focusing on Ryan Mallett. There are some interesting pieces coming out of that.

Two in particular stood out.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » The Making of Mallett: Why Mallett woke up every morning and studied Tom Brady

Now Mallett has the chance to study Brady up close and personal.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » The Making of Mallett: How QB Ryan Mallett lost his U.S. Army All-American jersey

Maybe Mallett isn't as bad as he's been portrayed.

I dunna know. Maybe it's because I'm pushing 40 and still remember the dumb things I did in college and how different I was 6 months later after getting job, commuting, paying bills, etc. I.E- having responsibility. My impression of Mallett is that he is not a bad kid (Dez Bryant comes to mind). He just needs to get in a good environment and understand what it takes to be a professional. Hes got a good boss and a good mentor here. I just hope he recognizes the opportunity he has. Thats 1/2 the battle.
 
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I dunna know. Maybe it's because I'm pushing 40 and still remember the dumb things I did in college and how different I was 6 months later after getting job, commuting, paying bills, etc. I.E- having responsibility. My impression of Mallett is that he is not a bad kid (Dez Bryant comes to mind). He just needs to get in a good environment and understand what it takes to be a professional. Hes got a good boss and a good mentor here. I just hope he recognizes the opportunity he has. Thats 1/2 the battle.

I agree. From all accounts, he's a good kid who made some mistakes. But he appears to have overcome them and learned from them, and he's landed in the best place possible for him.

This pick really shocked me, but it's growing on me now.
 
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