That's simply wrong. Not one 2007 draft pick had a cap hit of over 3 million. It is safe to presume that Jamarcus Russell has the highest 2008 cap hit of any 2007 draft pick. His 2008 cap is $4.8 million. Adrian Peterson's 2008 cap hit is $2,425,000 and his cap hit will not go over $6 million until the 2011 season.
Was Adrian Peterson a bargain in 2007??
Will he be a bargain in 2008??
in 2009??
in 2010??
in 2011??
My answers are Yes, yes, yes, yes, and no. I can live with a player not being a bargain for one year after 4 years of being a bargain.
I would say the same thing about Joe Thomas. If the Pats were selecting McFadden or J.Long (and RB or OT was a need position), then contract terms wouldn't be much of an issue.
The point isn't about whether the #7 pick (whoever he is) would be worth the cap hit for an NFL team. The issue is about cost and value for the Patriots. Will there be a player on the board at #7 that will be worth the contract for the Patriots? We won't know for 3 years or so, but I have my doubts.
Just because AP was a stud at #7 last year doesn't mean that anyone the Pats select at #7 will follow suit. Take the candidates this year (with my opinions):
J.Long - Great value at #7 but won't make it there
C.Long - Questions about transition to LB
Ryan - Young QB not a need
McFadden - Great value at #7 if given opportunity (trade RB, feature run more)
Dorsey - Questions about fit in 3-4 scheme for Pats, opportunity
Gholston - Questions about consistency, transition to OLB
Ellis - See Dorsey
The Pats obviously could evaluate these players differently or include different guys at the top of their board (Clady, DRC, McKelvin, Rivers, etc.). As the Pats declined my request to help with stacking their draft board, my opinions are pretty much guesswork. My best guess is that the Pats will look to trade down since there isn't a player worth the #7 contract FOR THEM.
You may have a different evaluation of the players involved, but your posts seem to be driving at a different point. The economics of drafting in the top 10 is generally considered to be an issue (many want to trade down, few want to trade up). Are you saying that this perception is incorrect? I don't study contracts in detail so maybe GMs are making a big deal when in reality top 10 picks are bargains for the money they get (Ryan Leaf excluded).