Trading Up in 2011

[andrewgarrr]

Of the players signed in 2011 (I don't know how accurate this roster is), the players whose names are in bold-face are the ones I anticipate to make 53-man roster. There are 42 names bold-faced and of those 42, I'll estimate my error to be + 5 errors - errors in the amount of players not the ones selected. This error can be reasoned and disregarded by free agent signings, and some players on this list that I might otherwise have included (Sergio Brown, Eric Moore).

List:

Kyle Arrington
Thomas Austin
Tully Banta-Cain
Josh Barrett
Leigh Bodden
Ron Brace
Tom Brady
Deion Branch
Sergio Brown
Carson Butler
Darius Butler
Tony Carter
Patrick Chung
Thomas Clayton
Landon Cohen
Dan Connolly
Jonathan Crompton
Alge Crumpler
Jermaine Cunningham
Brandon Deaderick
Julian Edelman
Buddy Farnham
Marlon Favorite
Dane Fletcher
Stephen Gostkowski
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Rob Gronkowski
Gary Guyton
Aaron Hernandez
Brian Hoyer
Darnell Jenkins
Nick Kaczur
Matt Katula
Dan Koppen
Mark LeVoir
Bret Lockett
Kyle Love
Steve Maneri
Logan Mankins
Jerod Mayo
Devin McCourty
Brandon Meriweather
Zoltan Mesko
Eric Moore
Sammy Morris
Marques Murrell
Rob Ninkovich
Rich Orhnberger
Jarrad Page
Taylor Price
Myron Pryor
Darryl Richard
James Sanders
Matthew Slater
Brandon Spikes
Marcus Stroud
Brandon Tate
Thad Turner
Ross Ventrone
Sebastian Vollmer
Ty Warren
Wes Welker
Ryan Wendell
Tracy White
Vince Wilfork
Jonathan Wilhite
Danny Woodhead
Mike Wright

2 Quarterbacks: Brady, Hoyer
6 Receivers: Branch, Edelman, Price, Tate, Slater, Welker
3 Tight Ends: Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez
2 Running-backs: Green-Ellis, Woodhead
5 Offensive Lineman: Connolly, LeVoir, Koppen, Mankins, Vollmer
4 Cornerbacks: Arrington, Bodden, Butler, McCourty
4 Safeties: Chung, Meriweather, Page, Sanders
3 Outside Linebackers: Banta-Cain, Cunningham, Ninkovich
5 Inside Linebackers: Fletcher, Guyton, Mayo, Spikes, White
5 Defensive Lineman: Brace, Stroud, Warren, Wilfork, Wright
3 Specialists: Gostkowski, Katula, Mesko


At the beginning of 2010, the team carried, 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs, 8 OL, 7 DL, 4 OLB, 6 ILB, 5 CB, 4 S, and 3 specialists. With my estimation above, this leaves 3 RB, 3 OL, 1 CB, 2 LB, and 2 DL spots open. This is 12 roster spots open, and the team has 9 draft picks in 2011.

1. The Patriots will probably resign one of the 3 veteran RBs (Faulk, Morris, Taylor) or bring in another veteran FA RB.

2. I anticipate Matt Light to be resigned.

3. The team might bring back Wilhite.

4. One or two of Pryor, Deaderick, or Love will probably make the roster.

This amounts to 4 additions to the 42 man roster, so now we're at 46. 7 roster spots with 9 draft picks. From 2008-2010, the Patriots have amassed a lot of draft picks and replenished their roster with a good young core of players, especially on defense. And the need to amass further and future picks seems unnecessary now that all positions have been solidified (except offensive guard). Some positions could use an upgrade (WR, RB), but the biggest need on the team is a pass rush. This can come in the form of an improved defensive line or a stud outside linebacker. I think this is the year where the Patriots trade up and draft an impact player on defense. Whether it be Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Dareus, whoever.

*This is all speculation and I may have royally screwed up in the math.

 

[bucky]

I agree with you, but for a totally different reason. The numbers you calculated actually don't make a lot of sense - if you assume 9 picks for 7 roster spots, your 5th and 6th rounders probably won't make the team anyway. So voila, you're there.

The reason I think the Pats trade up are:

1) They need a defensive play maker (pass rusher in particular) and it doesn't appear one will be there at 17.
2) This is a weak draft at so many positions, that it's hard to see them picking anyone at WR, QB, TE, S, ILB. I also cannot see them picking more than 1 player at DL or CB. So are we to assume they'll use 7 picks on RB, OL and OLB?
3) Pats are in excellent cap situation and there's going to be a very large FA class. So expect quite a few FAs to be signed.

 

[Don Kipines]

Is Tracy White still on the team? I thought he was a free agent now.

 

[Don Kipines]

Very good analysis! Enjoyed that.

I like that you were pretty conservative in estimating who has a roster spot -- there were maybe one or two I would quibble with (Slater, Fletcher?) but there were a few more I think are more secure than we might think (Kaczur hasn't been cut yet, and I would think Deaderick is close to being a lock), so it probably comes out even in the end.

I agree that the chances of them trading up are very high, and I fully expect them to target a defensive front-7 guy high in the first. This is a team that has good youth and depth all over the roster and is really just lacking impact players.

Looking at that list of yours makes you realize what excellent shape the Pats are in going forward. They have good young guys to build around on every unit. A couple more good young players on the offensive and defensive lines and they'll really be in great shape.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Does trading up in a weak draft class make sense as you are giving up more to get less (from a long-term view)? I understand the limited number of quality candidates would appear to make the pick more valuable.

I guess it all depends on how BB see's the player fitting into the scheme. i love the draft talk because it gets you familiar with players, but I don't both with mock drafts as they tend to be far off from what the Patriots pick (they rarely even get the position right).

 

[andrewgarrr]

I agree with you, but for a totally different reason. The numbers you calculated actually don't make a lot of sense - if you assume 9 picks for 7 roster spots, your 5th and 6th rounders probably won't make the team anyway. So voila, you're there.

The reason I think the Pats trade up are:

1) They need a defensive play maker (pass rusher in particular) and it doesn't appear one will be there at 17.
2) This is a weak draft at so many positions, that it's hard to see them picking anyone at WR, QB, TE, S, ILB. I also cannot see them picking more than 1 player at DL or CB. So are we to assume they'll use 7 picks on RB, OL and OLB?
3) Pats are in excellent cap situation and there's going to be a very large FA class. So expect quite a few FAs to be signed.

Hmm... I think the idea is that 2 picks will go to 1 pick (i.e. 17 and 60). I also didn't include complementary draft picks (I think). Yeah, the numbers probably still don't make sense, but I think there will be UDFA that make the team, as well as some players that I missed. I guess it goes both ways...

The team might draft a safety, the team doesn't have many safeties signed through 2012. Unlike many people, I don't think WR is a need, and I don't think any RB in the draft is worth a top 60 pick.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Is Tracy White still on the team? I thought he was a free agent now.

Either way, the team always carries around multiple 'special team' exclusive players. If it isn't Tracy White, I expect a player with a similar role to fill a roster spot. Same thing with Katula. Sorry if I messed that up.

 

[JoeShmoe]

If you think this a weak class and a team without many holes then rather than trade up id expect us to trade down and then trade out.

Look for at least 2 of the first 4 picks to be pushed into 2012 IMHO

 

[Don Kipines]

Either way, the team always carries around multiple 'special team' exclusive players. If it isn't Tracy White, I expect a player with a similar role to fill a roster spot. Same thing with Katula. Sorry if I messed that up.

True, but that player might be a draft choice, a la Matt Slater.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I agree with you, but for a totally different reason. The numbers you calculated actually don't make a lot of sense - if you assume 9 picks for 7 roster spots, your 5th and 6th rounders probably won't make the team anyway. So voila, you're there.

The reason I think the Pats trade up are:

1) They need a defensive play maker (pass rusher in particular) and it doesn't appear one will be there at 17.
2) This is a weak draft at so many positions, that it's hard to see them picking anyone at WR, QB, TE, S, ILB. I also cannot see them picking more than 1 player at DL or CB. So are we to assume they'll use 7 picks on RB, OL and OLB?
3) Pats are in excellent cap situation and there's going to be a very large FA class. So expect quite a few FAs to be signed.

The reasons the Pats stay put or trade down is:

1.) BB is a value drafter.
2.) Top rookie contract might upset the current locker room contracts pecking order.
3.) BB believes in a few stars and a super strong middle class vs. stars and maggots jets type football.

 

[mgteich]

LIGHT AND MANKINS
Obviously the first priorities are these postions. If these two players play for us in 2011, we will have exactly ZERO needs in the draft. We would need to re-sign or acquire a couple of backup running backs, but that is not a draft issue.

THIS DRAFT IS ALL ABOUT UPGRADES
Yes, 1 dozen rookies and free agents could make this roster. Each would need to be an upgrade over the present roster below (and Faulk and Morris)
===========================================
The good news is that we could start the season with the roster and likely be as good as last year. especially if we re-signed Light. The only real "holes" are at running back, where we only have 3 coming back: Green-Ellis, Woodhead and Clayton.

If we sign Light before the draft and keep Mankins for this year, we would only be talking bout upgrades, not the filling of any holes.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Active Players By Position March 9th, 2011
QB - 2 Brady, Hoyer, (Crompton)
RB - 5 Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Clayton, open, open
FB - 0
C - 2 Koppen, Wendell
G - 3 Mankins, Ohrnberger, Connolly, (Austin)
OT - 4 Kaczur, Vollmer, Levoir, Maneri
WR - 6 Welker, Edelman, Tate, Slater, Price, Branch,(Farnham),(Jenkins)
TE - 3 Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez, (Butler)
--------------------------------------------------------
DE - 3 Deaderick, Ty Warren, Stroud, (Favorite)
DT - 4 Wright, Brace, Pryor, Wilfork, (Weston), (Richard)
LB - 8 Mayo, Ninkovich, Fletcher, Guyton, Banta-Cain, Cunningham, Spikes,
Moore
CB - 5 Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, Wilhite, Butler, (Jackson), (Carter),
(Turner)
S - 5 Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Page, Brown/Barrett, (Ventrone)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
P - 1 Mesko
K - 1 Gostkowski
LS - 1 Katula

Inactive Players By Position
RB - Kettani (Reserve/Military),
WR - Barnes (Reserve/Military), White (Reserve/Military),

 

[MaineMan]

For me, it's more helpful at this stage, pre-draft, to just project the 80-man camp roster based on who we currently have under contract and figure out how many holes there would be in that, because that roster is going to be filled with signed players no matter what. And also because a couple of the guys who start out at the bottom of the 80-man roster are likely (based on past history) to push someone off the P/S or even off the bottom of the ultimate 53-man. There's always some churn down there.

Now, considering that there's still a good chance that there will be no CBA by draft day and, thus, no UDFA pool to fill that 80-man roster, it seems entirely possible to me that BB ends up drafting way more guys than we believe the ultimate 53-man "needs" right now by grabbing some late round picks that might, under "normal" circumstances, be part of his UDFA pool.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

For me, it's more helpful at this stage, pre-draft, to just project the 80-man camp roster based on who we currently have under contract and figure out how many holes there would be in that, because that roster is going to be filled with signed players no matter what. And also because a couple of the guys who start out at the bottom of the 80-man roster are likely (based on past history) to push someone off the P/S or even off the bottom of the ultimate 53-man. There's always some churn down there.

Now, considering that there's still a good chance that there will be no CBA by draft day and, thus, no UDFA pool to fill that 80-man roster, it seems entirely possible to me that BB ends up drafting way more guys than we believe the ultimate 53-man "needs" right now by grabbing some late round picks that might, under "normal" circumstances, be part of his UDFA pool.

The only way that can happen, though, is by doing the opposite of what a lot of people here would like, and that's trade down, down, down, seeing as they only have a 5 and a 6 after seven picks in the first four rounds.

 

[MaineMan]

The only way that can happen, though, is by doing the opposite of what a lot of people here would like, and that's trade down, down, down, seeing as they only have a 5 and a 6 after seven picks in the first four rounds.

Oh.

Damn.

See, for me, I think BB can get everything the team needs (that can be gotten out of the early rounds of this draft) without trading up at all. In fact, I think he'll probably be able to trade down a few spots with probably at least 2 of the first three, still get all his target guys, PLUS pick up a couple extra later picks for 2011 and maybe even a 2012 pick.