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Trading out of the first round completely... hear me out

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Leemo, Apr 6, 2012.

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  1. Leemo

    Leemo Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #87 Jersey

    So most 'top' draft experts are saying there are around 25 '5-star' players at the top of this draft class. From position 26 to a round the 70 mark contain all the '4-star' prospects.

    So basically unless a miracle happens and one or more of the '5-stars' drops to #27 and/or #31 we should trade completely out of the first round, preferably for next years first and a second this year for both our first round picks... there will be a couple of desperate teams I'm sure..

    This seems like the logical and smartest thing to do. We still get four '4-star' players but gain two extra first round picks next season.

    I may well be stating the obvious, I apologize if that is the case.
     
  2. Calciumee

    Calciumee PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    If there are 25 '5 star' players, there is a very good chance that one ends up at 27! Only needs 2 '4 star' players to be taken!
     
  3. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

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    Then next year when there are only 25 5 stars and we're picking 26, 28 and 30. We trade for picks in 2014 and so on. How bout the novel idea of trading up? Not too many of our 3RD ROUND picks have done squat. If there's a player at a position we need package it with 27 and snag him. Then wait and see who is on the board at 31 before trading out.
     
  4. Lamanai

    Lamanai On the Game Day Roster

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    I doubt it drops off so precipitously. More likely, it drops off from a 5-star, to a couple of 4.9 stars, a few 4.8 stars, etc...Also, teams value guys differently. So all picks in that 26-70 range are not equal. I'd rather be picking who I want than settling for the leftovers.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2012
  5. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    I could buy this concept.

    If the choice is: (a) two 1sts and two 2nds this year, versus (b) four 2nds, plus a 1st and a 2nd next year, I would take (b) with no remorse.
     
  6. Big-T

    Big-T In the Starting Line-Up

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    #51 Jersey

    Ryan Tannehill is one of the none '5 star' players that will be taken in the top 10, so that leaves one more team to reach to let one of said 5 star prospects drop to #27.
     
  7. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    There is a certain immense irony in the thought that Ryan Tannehill might be drafted in the top 10, while Ryan Mallett lasted until pick #74. . . .
     
  8. fester

    fester On the Game Day Roster

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    The relevant question is how many players do the Patriots have 1st round grades on the following criteria:
    • skill
    • aggregate risk
    • fit for the Patriots

    My bet is that list is much smaller than 25 players AND it has several players that the national rating services/scouts/press/other teams that play dramatically different styles have rated as 2nd or 3rd rounders or completely off the board.

    For instance, the Patriots are looking for a certain linebacker/defensive end profile so a 6-1 MLB that weighs 224 pounds and can run like the wind might grade very high for a Tampa-2 team, but the Patriots look at that player as at best a 3rd down coverage backer or a special teams player that just happens to have a LB number on their shirt and therefore only worth a 5th rounder.
     
  9. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My guess is that they trade up from 27 and down from 31. I also think the talent dropoff is right around 25, making 27 a pretty dangerous pick to hold on to. Getting into the early 20s would only cost their 3rd or 4th, which they can easily recoup with a trade down from 31.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2012
  10. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I could buy into this too.

    At least you were able to keep up with all of the picks. One of these days Belichick is going to misplace one of the damn picks, we'll have so many.

    So it'd be 4 second round picks this year, and 2 firsts and 2 seconds next year again?

    I'm all over it.
     
  11. Jimke

    Jimke In the Starting Line-Up

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    My main beef about trading out of the first round is if the second round
    pick turns out to be a late round pick like last year. After the Patriots chose Downing with the 32nd pick, there was a run on the remaining pass rushers.
    This left the Patriots with no good opportunities to get a pass rusher.
     
  12. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    I stated the same premise in a thread a month ago and have continued to do so and I think there's a 60% chance that's the way it goes. I currently see three scenarios.

    1. They luck out and Cox drops to the late teens and trade something like 27 + 31 for 18 + 48. Probably a 10% chance.

    2. They luck out and Kirkpatrick or Hightower drop to 27 and they draft them and trade down out of 31. Probably a 30% chance.

    3. There's nothing at a position of need and they trade both picks for second rounders and third rounders and 2013 first. 60% chance.
     
  13. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #3 Jersey

    No need to Circle the Wagons, pal. ;)

    Your proposal is neither as radical nor as original as you seem to think, my good man.

    1 ~ Brother EverLong already proposed this very thing, and recently.

    2 ~ My very recent Mock V13.0 doesn't start until Pick #54!! :eek:

    Of course that's going to change: I really like Pro FootBall Weekly's Market Value Grid, and will update my next Mock accordingly, which will probably bring my first Pick up into the 30's.

    I haven't sat down and worked out Tiers in detail, yet, but count me as being on board with the general consensus that seems to see the first Break at about #25 or so.

    As such, a small Trade Up would make a lot of sense.

    So, too, though, would a complete and utter Bail. :D
     
  14. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey

    I get the feeling that the portents are for a trade up with one pick and a trade back with the other. But those prospects in the top 10-20 are mostly quite weak. For me, better value might be had in trading back. Just think:

    1. Is Michael Brockers minus a second rounder better than Devon Still, keeping a 2nd and adding another one?

    2. Is Stephon Gilmore worth giving up a pick when Jamell Fleming can be had without the loss of such?

    Trading back both first rounders could net 4 seconds and two to three third rounders potentially. Obviously there's likely to be trades into next year but there's very good depth value in the second and third rounds and if we had seven picks in rounds 2-3, imagine something like:

    Devon Still, Alfonso Dennard, Trumaine Johnson, Vinny Curry, Ronnell Lewis, Brandon Boykin, Ryan Broyles (quick example from PFW's value chart).

    I'd take something like that.
     
  15. CiminoUM5

    CiminoUM5 Rookie

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    I don't have enough posts to make a new post for this, and since I did exactly what the title of this thead is, I figured I'd post it here (reposted from another board). Obviously if it were a real draft, I'd have probably gotten one or two less picks for this draft and added one or two for next years, but there's no point in doing that in an internet mock.

    Just got done with a mock draft I did over on my Canes board, here's what we ended up with:

    2 - Kendall Reyes, DT/DE
    2 - Shea McClellin - OLB/DE
    2 - Brandon Thompson - DT/DE
    3 - Jemell Fleming - CB
    3 - Bruce Irvin - OLB
    3 - Greg Childs - WR
    4 - Josh Norman - CB
    4 - Jeff Allen - OG/OT
    5 - Evan Rodriguez - TE/H-back
    5 - DeJohn Harris - DT

    It was a classic BB draft in the sense that I did just an absurd amount of trading. Might regret trading down from 27 as Brockers was available, but I feel I got two more complete (but lower upside) guys at that position in the next round in Reyes and Thompson. McClellin has the versatility and overall profile of a guy that seems taylormade for the Pats defense.

    I'm wary of drafting OU CBs, but I think Fleming is one of the most complete CBs in the class and will end up as one of the most productive at the next level. Irvin is the anti-McClellin...not versatile, raw, and one dimensional....but he's a monster pass rusher, perhaps the best in the draft. He should help to replace some of Anderson's production, and will be a long-term project in terms of developing him into a complete LB. Had childs not torn his patella tendon in 2010, I think he would have ended up as a top 3 WR in this draft. He had a disappointing 2011 while recovering from the injury, but he seems close to 100% judging by his combine. A physical monster that has one of the highest upsides of the WRs IMO.

    Norman is another guy who's a little raw, less fundamentally sound than Fleming, but is physically imposing and was a flat out playmaker (albiet against inferior competition). I really like his ball skills and see a guy who brings the type of big play ability we havent seen at the position since Asante. Allen's another versatile guy, will be able to play tackle in a pinch, but projects as a great guard in the NFL. He's a bit soft looking, but with a commitment to an NFL conditioning program, I think he'll be one of the diamonds in the rough of the 2012 OL class.

    The Rodriguez pick wasn't necessarily a great "need" pick, but he reminds me a lot of a poor man's Hernandez. He'll be a great #3 immediately and in time has the ability to develop into a great replacement for when one of Gronknandez leave. I was going to go with a body to throw in at safety with the last pick, but Harris's upside is too much to pass up. He's got some major questions about his motor/motivation, but he was just dominant when the switch was turned on.

    So, a classic BB draft, IMO. Tons of trading, and infuriatingly didn't address what a lot of fans consider to be the biggest concern (safety). I just hate this safety class. Barron is too similar to Chung's skillset, Smith is a guy who does everything well but nothing great (and who would be a 3rd-4th round pick in an average draft year). I like Martin a lot but missed out on him by a few picks. Also like Thomas from Syracuse as a late pick but missed out on him also. Ultimately I think there's a good chance McCourty's going to be moved to FS full time. So considering that, the depth that Gregory brings, and possibly bringing in a couple intriguing UDFA guys (Dye and the CB Marrow from Toledo are who I'd bring in), I think we'd be ok there for 2012.

    Ultimately I brought in an infusion of talent for the front 7, a couple good CBs who will give some great depth if McCourty is moved, an interior lineman who may be very much needed depending on how Mankins recovers, a big, physically gifted WR with incredible upside and a 3rd TE that can do a lot of things on offense. It just occurred to me that I forgot about Cyrus Grey from TAMU with my last pick...probably would have chosen him over Harris had I remembered, but oh well. Thoughts? Brutal criticisms if I did a ****ty job?
     
  16. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey

    Welcome to the board and a really good start with a really nice post. There's a lot to like about that mock:

    Oh yes! This is exactly what I think of him. One of my favourite players in the draft.

    Really like the value here. I'd rather go Ryan Broyles but only because he's easier to stash on IR and so not have to worry about a roster spot. But Childs works. either/or for me.

    If that is our draft in reality, I would be pretty happy. I don't think there's any dramatic improvement to the team but there's a lot of nice potential in the long run. Good job.
     
  17. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson In the Starting Line-Up

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    #37 Jersey

    count me in too
     
  18. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Could anyone point me to the year that, when having 2 first round picks, BB has traded BOTH of them and out of the 1st round???
     
  19. Avenger

    Avenger Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    #11 Jersey

    In my mock I had the Patriots trading out of the first completely
    [​IMG]
     
  20. DW Toys

    DW Toys In the Starting Line-Up

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    Good theory. I am buying that one but wish he would opt for talent versus quantity. Let 2012 take care of itself for once.
    DW Toys
     
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