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Trading for picks in 2012

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Lamanai, Feb 21, 2011.

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  1. Lamanai

    Lamanai Rookie

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    This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.

    First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees.

    Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks.

    I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year?
  2. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    Very interesting angle, Bro. Well considered.

    My take is that, should no CBA get enacted before then, there would be a real yet very mild Discount to the usual Premium, if you will. Ultimately, though, Trading Forward is generally Bad Business, requiring bad judgment. As such, I expect that those who are inclined to do so ~ and there are MANY, Praise the Gods!! ~ will neither be deterred by the chance of a slow start, nor inclined to dig in their heels when negotiating.
  3. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 Rookie

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    Like every year, BB will trade picks for next yr. That's why I love to see all these "Mock" pundits having us keep all the picks and take their binky's.

    I would not be shocked if we traded down from 17, traded #28 or #33 for 2012 picks. Anything is possible. One thing you won't see pats do is package picks to move up.

    Out of 6 picks in 3rds, I expect 2 to be traded into 2012 draft. That's how you keep reloading every year.
  4. the wrothbroughterer

    the wrothbroughterer Rookie

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    The CBA ****show not withstanding I'm really hoping they make a move using 2012 picks to grab picks in 2011.

    Barring another record number of Juniors declaring next year that 2012 class stands to be very weak. With the amount of 3rd year eligible players who have declared the last 2 years we're looking at a thin crop similar to the 2007 draft. Facing a weak draft class, BB has shown a willingness to move picks, my hope is that he just uses them a year early.
  5. meggett

    meggett Rookie

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    thats the logic i really cant get on board with. i understand reloading picks for the next year, but if we never actually use the picks, what good are they? i would expect, after a rookie wage scale is agreed upon, we will be trading down less, at least in the first round. as it wouldnt be such a financial risk to go get an early round talent. what could make things interesting is if a new CBA is agreed on before the draft, we have the ammo to actually move up and grab a AJ Green or Julio Jones, and of course depending on the rookie wage scale, could get them for considerably less than it would have cost us last year, on a 5 or 6 year deal.
  6. Off The Grid

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    Ahhhh...Trade FORWARD, out of an anticipated weak class. VERY interesting...[​IMG]

    As stated above, I USUALLY find that to be a fundamentally unsound policy. Indeed, it is only because Coach Bill has acquired such a wealth of Picks that I floated my radical idea, this past Spring, to roll the Raider Pick forward, in pursuit of San Fran's 2nd 1st Rounder, as the likes of Marquis de Pouncey don't come along very often.

    So while I'm not on board with your approach, I salute the creativity and forward thinking whence it came.

    If the 2012 Draft Class DOES turn out weak ~ as opposed to every last 2014 Red Shirt Sophomore stampeding to fill the void ~ my approach would simply be to Trade Back, as we did in 2007.

    Still...I LOVE your sense of GREED. :D
  7. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

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    While some may say draft picks may not be as valuable because of the learning the playbook stuff......the fact remains that because the draft is before Free Agency alot of teams will be looking to shore up cheap starting positions with draft picks instead of paying the premium. Because of this draft picks will be more valuable this year than any for any team.
  8. townes

    townes Rookie

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    First they have to see how the draft falls because it makes little sense to move picks to the following draft if they have the players they want out of this one right in front of them.

    Second they have to take into consideration, however unlikely, the CBA negotiations going completely south and the Players Union using the one real card they hold, decertification and an Antitrust lawsuit against the league, which could mean no bargaining partner and no draft in coming years. The draft is only legal because the union has a deal in place with the owners allowing it as the vehicle for obtaining players, with no union every player would be a free agent from the start and the owners would have no right to dictate to incoming players where they go or don't go.
  9. Mogamedogz

    Mogamedogz Rookie

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    I know this board hates it, but I'd love to see him gather enough Ammo to move up to #1 land Andrew Luck next year if a Rookie Wage scale is in place (which most believe will).
  10. townes

    townes Rookie

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    And seven years from now he can start.
  11. the wrothbroughterer

    the wrothbroughterer Rookie

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    but hell b soooooOOOoo awsum then!!!!1!11!
  12. Mogamedogz

    Mogamedogz Rookie

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    Right...

    Because Brady has 7 good years left in him. :rolleyes:

    Only in this forum will you read such out of touch with reality nonsense.

    ETA: Brady will be 35yrs old going into lucks Rookie year. Lets say he sits just TWO seasons behind TFB. You don't think it would be a solid idea to have a groomed stud going into camp to battle it out with a 37yr old Tom Brady?

    Brett Favre was a completely washed up 38yr old when the team FINALLY decided to give him the boot for Rodgers.

    Does Brady appear to be the kind of guy who is going to try and hang on longer than he should? My money would be on Peyton being that guy.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2011
  13. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    With all due respect, how is trading up for Andrew Luck reflective of reality?
  14. Mogamedogz

    Mogamedogz Rookie

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    How much do you think it would take to get into the top 3? You dont think we have enough ammo between this year and next? We have 175 freaking draft picks stockpiled... may as well cash them in for a player that is actually worth it.
  15. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I assume that you realize this is absolutely false, right?
  16. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    The CBA does not need to be agreed to before the draft for it to include a rookie cap for 2011.
  17. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The last time someone traded up to #1 was the Rivers-Manning trade, and the Giants traded their 2004 third and their 2005 first and fifth. . . . to move up three spots.
  18. Mogamedogz

    Mogamedogz Rookie

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    Which part? That Favre was washed up? I'll give you that was probably an overstatement... But had Rodgers Been put in a year sooner... maybe they win that game in '07.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2011
  19. letekro

    letekro Rookie

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    What "ammo" do you have in mind? Assuming he plays as well or better then he did last year, we will be talking about a Herschel Walker type trade to get it done (especially with the Pats who will be picking towards the bottom of the draft for the foreseeable future). I can't believe you would seriously advocate setting the franchise back years in terms of draft picks to draft someone who MAY be a starter in 5 years.
  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Overstatement? In 2008, Favre had the Jets at 8-3 before getting hurt. In 2009, he was an MVP candidate, and one of only 4 players to get a vote for the award. He was nowhere near "completely washed up".
  21. Mogamedogz

    Mogamedogz Rookie

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    The last thing I'll say about making a play for Luck is this...

    In 4 years when this kid is lighting up the league, and Brady is either a mere shell of what he used to be, OR we have some other slub back there trying to keep us at or above .500, you all will remember me saying this stuff.
  22. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He wasn't washed up; the Packers were just sick of the Favre Annual Retirement Tango, and the resultant inability to plan for the future.
  23. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 Rookie

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    ....and tie up 40% of your cap space with 2 QB's, and the #1 pick holding the clipboard won't even sniff starting for 4 yrs.

    I thought the Jet's clowns took the idiots idea of the year award with plans to pay Revis and add Asomugha to tie up 30% of their cap, but this idea really is a runaway winner.

    So, trade all your picks this yr to load up for 2012, thereby weakening your 2011 team, then draft Luck in 2012, thereby again adding a piece to a team that will not contribute for 3-4 yrs.

    Fantasy leaguers need to layoff the crack pipe. We aren't living 20yrs ago where 49'ers could keep Montana and afford the luxury of Young holding the clipboard for 5 yrs. There's a reason why nutjob GM's for Vikes(H. Walker) and Saints(Ricky williams) mortgaged the team future and they and the teams paid a price for the next decade. Or for that matter this is not even 2005 when Packers drafted the successor to Lord Favre.

    Stupidity at its best...:bricks:
  24. Off The Grid

    Off The Grid Rookie

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    1 ~ Brady + 7 years = Brady @ 40

    2 ~ Favre @ 40: 33 TD's + 7 Picks.

    Not bad for 2 years PAST "completely washed up"...EH??? [​IMG]

    Would you like to reconsider your previous statement?? [​IMG]
  25. meggett

    meggett Rookie

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    not to mention. even if that ridiculous scenario occurred, we would be paying bradys salary AND lucks no. 1 pick salary. for the next 3 years. sounds like fun.
  26. DonBlackmon55

    DonBlackmon55 Rookie

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    and add to that this....

    Let's see how many #1 FRANCHISE COLLEGE QB's have turned their COLLEGE talent at PRO level

    ummm..i'll go as far back as Elway to '83 for "modern era" football.

    Of the 15 drafted QB's @ #1, I count only 3 FRANCHISE QB's...Elway, Peyton Manning and Aikman. That's a whopping 20% success ratio of winding up with a franchise QB @ #1 pick who actually delivered at PRO level...80% of QB's taken #1 overall were average or well below average.

    Andrew Luck is what he is..an UNPROVEN college level PROSPECT.


    - JeMarcus Russell
    - Matt Stafford
    - Sam Bradford (rookie yr sample size only so more time needed)
    - Alex Smith
    - Eli Manning
    - Carson Palmer
    - David Carr
    - Michael Vick
    - Tim Couch
    - Peyton Manning
    - Drew Bledsoe
    - Jeff George
    - Troy Aikman
    - Vinny Testaverde
    - John Elway
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2011
  27. townes

    townes Rookie

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    What i'll remember first is your contention that a team can trade for the following year's number one overall pick before the season even starts. First graders know better. Brady was the best player in football this year, and you want to use their first 2 picks for a chance to draft a successor when he's got another 4-5 years of high level play ahead of him. I think you live in fantasy football world.
  28. fester

    fester Rookie

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    I think this idea is asinine for the same reasons as most other posters (draft and pay Luck with the intent of sitting him for three to five years while eating up 7% to 12% of the available cap space holding the clipboard while also making several other positions go from significantly above replacement level players to UDFA/vet min positions)

    What is the minimal amount of ammo needed to move to #1 in 2012?

    Assume the Pats make it to the play-offs next year, give them pick # 28 (660 points), they need to find another 2,400 points of value.

    That could be through acquiring the #2 or # 3 pick in the 2012 draft with a throw-in pick to balance things out, or trading the remainder of the Patriots 2012 (620 more points) draft plus ALL of the 2013 (650 points) PLUS a Pro-Bowler on rookie contract.

    Let's go the draft pick routine. If the Patriots can find a sucker like Carolina then trading # 60 for a 2012 1st rounder could suffice, but there is only a 10% chance that a trading partner will collapse to the bottom three teams in the league. There is high variance in outcomes. More likely, the Patriots would have to assume that any 2011 trade partners will be average teams, so call it trading #33 and #60 for a pair of 2012 firsts which will be #16 and #17. The Pats would then have 2,600 points. To get to 3,000, the trade would be #16, #17, #28, #60 and #92 for # 1 and perhaps a 4th or 5th rounder to balance things out.

    Now what happens if the Pats' trade partners are surprisingly good next year (like Oakland was this year as most Pats fans were hoping/counting on a top 10 pick) and they each make the playoffs? The trade is then 3 2012 firsts, 2012 2nd, 2012 3rd, and probably a 2013 1st plus some change for #1.

    Oh yeah, the reason why the Patriots would be doing this is that they evaluate Luck as an Elway/Manning type of prospect. If the Pats are evaluating and valuing Luck as such a prospect, I am assuming Top 5 and Top 10 pick teams are also evaluating Luck as such a prospect. If that is the case, then the asking price for the right to choose Luck is most likely signficantly above 3,000 draft value points (esp. if he is reasonably cheap due to a rookie wage scale), so everything I have calculated as a trade is lowballing the actual offer neccessary.
  29. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No, I'd be wondering if Luck would be able to do any better than that slub, given that the Patriots would have sacrificed the chance to strengthen other parts of the team to get Luck in the first place.
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2011
  30. Off The Grid

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    Worst...Idea...EVER!!

    [​IMG]
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