Traded up twice, should have kept going

[Deus Irae]

Unless you want the chance at TWO hits.

Absolutely correct, but you'd have to find the Patriots hit rate in round 2 and multiply out until you achieved higher than a 1 (In other words, at 50%, you'd need to achieve a 3:1 trade in order to achieve a 1.5:1 ratio, and the Patriots aren't getting superior value out of a 2:1 drop down deal).

It's a great debate, but always colored by the individual draft class and the status of the team's roster. The Pats concentrated firepower earlier on, but I guess by #62 they felt that the players they felt confident in were gone, which made quantity of picks the more attractive gamble.

Yeah, there are a lot of variables, which is why getting it exact isn't going to happen short of someone running a pretty intensive program. The QB example I used earlier is just one way that the numbers will be skewed.

And even getting all that, you'd still have to adjust percentages based upon the position of the picks in each round.

 

[Ring 6]

The odds favor the higher picks.

But no argument with you has ever been about odds. You hypocrisy is shining through here because you consistently rip moves that were correct based on the odds, and didnt work out.
Your posting ignores the odds, and is based on if it works out you pretend it didn't happen and if it doesn't you criticize it unendingly, then tell anyone with a different viewpoint that they think BB can never make a mistake.
If you are going to be one-sided and dsiningenuous, we have come to expect that, but at least you could be consistent.

 

[Ring 6]

I understand what you're asking. I gave you Casserly's basic take on it, with percentages, which would allow you to figure out the points where multiple picks are better than higher picks for his 'starter' rubric), such as 3:2 in rounds 2:1. I also tried to explain why that's not all that accurate and that we don't really have a firm number.

Using the Patriots only, there's never going to be a better pick than round 1 (100% success rate so far), so there's never a reason to trade down if you want to avoid a miss.

When have the Patriots traded out of round 1 and not gotten a 1 in return?
The only time I remember was 09 when they moved from late 1 to early 2, which is not the same as all 1s vs all 2s.

 

[Ivan]

Rather trade back from the second round, it might have made more sense to trade up again into the back end of the first. 48 (420 pts.) plus 62 (284) equals 26 (700 pts.). That maybe gets you Mercilus (though Houston might not have traded), Perry, Jenkins, or even Upshaw, if they wanted him.

Who knows, they may have tried to do this, but judging by the way the Packers hosed BB for #62, it seems like Bill was pretty determined to trade back, no matter how bad the deal. BTW, I'll be happy if the streak of consecutive years with a Ted Thompson draft day trade ends at 1. Note to Bill: one trade every two or three years is probably still too many--remember Clay Matthews and Chad Jackson?

As far as needing more picks, here's my take: the Patriots, as everybody knows by now, evaluate players differently. That means they draft some players earlier than other teams would otherwise, e.g., Wilson and Bequette. But that also means they probably have draftable grades on a lot of players that other teams would never draft. They could sign 20 or so UDFA, probably a good may with draftable grades by their standard.

Take three rifle shots, then change over to your streetsweeper.

Right on the money, Belichick should have traded up and used the rest of his picks to go up and get Alfonzo Dennard, CB Nebraska. He was a first before his troubles and they could have gotten him high in the second.

Unfortunately we are stuck with Belichick when we have geniuses like you and triumph who could do so much better than that schmuck

 

[patsfaninpa]

I think Hightower is versatile, but i expect his best role would be ILB, with the ability to play on the LOS in the nickle. Do you really think he has the speed to play OLB?

Hightower ran a 4.68 forty at the combine. That's not slow by any means. Hell, Kendall Wright ran a 4.61 on the same track. He can play Sam in a 3-4/4-3 hybrid. Can get after the qb. I think he'll slide inside on 3RD down when we go 4-2-5 and Spikes comes out. When Spikes leaves after 2 more years he'll slide inside then.

 

[Spiral]

Right on the money, Belichick should have traded up and used the rest of his picks to go up and get Alfonzo Dennard, CB Nebraska. He was a first before his troubles and they could have gotten him high in the second.

Unfortunately we are stuck with Belichick when we have geniuses like you and triumph who could do so much better than that schmuck

Let's not retire Dennard's number before he even gets one. He was picked with the 17th pick in the 7th round. If he doesn't get picked by Bill, there's a very good chance he goes undrafted, which would have proved my original point.

 

[Ivan]

Let's not retire Dennard's number before he even gets one. He was picked with the 17th pick in the 7th round. If he doesn't get picked by Bill, there's a very good chance he goes undrafted, which would have proved my original point.

You had a point?

 

[fester]

The Pats have drafted an ILB in the first before. There is a good chance that ownership pressured BB to use all his picks this year, which may explain trading up twice in the first.

Evidence please that is not extracted from your posterior --- from everything that I have read, the Kraft family is remarkably hands off on the daily football operations side of the equation.

 

[Off The Grid]

I'd trade Wilson, Bequette, Dennard, and the entire New Zealand All Black Team for another impact player on defense.

Heh, heh...WHAT???

Jake Bequette is an Impact Player.

Alfonzo Dennard is an Impact Player.

Everything is speculation, here, but for a prospective 10 year player who busts his @$$ on every single play, fights for his teammates, listens to the coaches, masters his job to the very best of his ability, and commands ~ by dint of his astonishing Pro Day ~ absolutely phenomenal Raw Athleticism that belies the stiff stiff we saw on tape, last year....Raw Athleticism that no coaching staff is better prepared than ours to convert into a real Impact on the field...I'll take Jake Bequette over Whitney Mercilus every day of the week...which makes the shameless theft of Alfonzo Dennard, the addition of the incredibly strong, athletic, and ferocious Will Ebner, and...uh...that Tavon Wilson guy...pure GRAVY!!

 

[Spiral]

You had a point?

Yes, thanks for asking.

My original point is that with the 90-man roster and hundreds of NFL FAs and UDFAs out there (some with draftable grades by the Patriots), it makes little sense to use mid and late-round draft picks to build the bottom half of a roster. Just take a look at the Patriots' defense last year: Anderson, Carter, Ninkovich, Warren, Arrington, Moore, Love, Ihedigbo, Stacey White. None of these guys were drafted by the Patriots. The Patriots have proven their ability to build the middle and bottom of their roster with guys that they didn't draft. The Patriots' best chance to get more playmakers on the defense is to draft more defensive players high in the draft. It looks like they got two this year, but they may have had a chance to get three.

 

[Ivan]

Yes, thanks for asking.

My original point is that with the 90-man roster and hundreds of NFL FAs and UDFAs out there (some with draftable grades by the Patriots), it makes little sense to use mid and late-round draft picks to build the bottom half of a roster. Just take a look at the Patriots' defense last year: Anderson, Carter, Ninkovich, Warren, Arrington, Moore, Love, Ihedigbo, Stacey White. None of these guys were drafted by the Patriots. The Patriots have proven their ability to build the middle and bottom of their roster with guys that they didn't draft. The Patriots' best chance to get more playmakers on the defense is to draft more defensive players high in the draft. It looks like they got two this year, but they may have had a chance to get three.

Looks like they got 5 defensive prospects to me. Jones, Hightower, Wilson, Bequette, and Dennard. Don't know where you get 2 from?

 

[Gronkandez]

Let's not retire Dennard's number before he even gets one. He was picked with the 17th pick in the 7th round. If he doesn't get picked by Bill, there's a very good chance he goes undrafted, which would have proved my original point.

"Let's not put him in the Hall of Fame just yet." - Bill Parcells (and prob others)

You mean we can't depend on a guy who punched a cop in the face a week before the biggest day (financially) of his life?

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Evidence please that is not extracted from your posterior --- from everything that I have read, the Kraft family is remarkably hands off on the daily football operations side of the equation.

Already posteda quote. It's OK to disagree and still remain polite.