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Trade Up From 60 - FOUR IMPACT PLAYERS

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mgteich, Jan 19, 2011.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have our 92 slated to being pushed into 2012.

    I think that we might want to package 60 and 74 and move up into the 35-45 range. This would give us four impact players and the requisite extra pick in 2012.

    Alternatively 60 and 92 would move us into the top 50. We would then trade 74 into next year.

    We would still have the 4th round and later to try to find the diamonds in the ruff.
     
  2. PatriotDynasty_12

    PatriotDynasty_12 On the Game Day Roster

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    Is it just me, or is this THE draft where BB has been waiting to unload and officially get his team and start the run at another dynasty. 14-2 this year and rebuilding...if we hit on the draft this year, the next 5 years could be very scary for the rest of the NFL. It's going to be one interesting draft. The time for IMPACT PLAYERS is now...Brady isn't getting any younger:(
     
  3. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like that ideal. 92 is close enough to the magical 89.
     
  4. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

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    That will depend if Logan Mankins and Matt Light sign contract extensions. If Matt Light departs via unrestricted free agency I'm not sure I would trade any draft picks into 2012.
     
  5. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    I read an article saying that they expect the new CBA to have two franchise tags.

    A franchised Mankins/Light trade could produce 2012 picks. I doubt Mankins will stay. However, he does have value that should translate.
     
  6. carolinatony

    carolinatony In the Starting Line-Up

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    I couldn't agree with you more but it will never happen. How long before we draft that pass rusher?
    One is too tall, this one too light. We need anyone who can rush the passer.

    I hope I am wrong but I bet BB trades back 2 of the first 6 picks. If he trades back more that we are in trouble next year.
     
  7. MaineMan

    MaineMan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I seriously doubt that BB drafts "a pass rusher" per se - probably just another Cunningham or Ninkovich type 3-down OLB with some TFL/sack stats in college.

    In 2010, sacks were up 20% over 2009 and 2008 - 36 distributed among 16 different front seven players. If BB gets a guy in this draft who's the real deal at RDE, a distinct possibility given that there are a number of legit candidates in this draft (for a change), I'd guess that 2011 sack totals hit 43-46, distributed among 12 or more guys (with one or two of them getting 6-8), and we won't be talking about drafting "a pass rusher" anymore for awhile.
     
  8. greerre

    greerre Rookie

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    I don't know if you are both hoping and expecting or just expecting BB to draft a 3 down OLB, but I think that would be a huge mistake. This year, the Defense was really effective on 1st and 2nd downs only to give it all up on 3rd because there was no pass rush in sure fire passing situations. These 3 down OLBs are not fast enough anymore given the how much the game has evolved over the past few years. I really want BB to draft a maniac like Mathews who's thought process consists exclusively of "run as fast as I can at the QB...slaughter anything that gets in my way."
     
  9. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    Since this debate has been going on for years, the real question is....do posters want a "pass rush" or a "pass rusher"?

    As this team develops, I would much prefer a "pass rush".

    It's amazing all the Cameron Wake love here. In the game in Miami, he gets some early sacks, is diefied, and then everybody forgets he basically helped lose the game because he got run over.

    I also don't get the Clay Matthews love. In the Packer games I have seen, I don't ever remember him not gettting a "coverage" sack. Likewise, Jaime Dukes made a great point in their Giants game. Matthews was getting all the love on the Jacobs fumble. Dukes then pointed that this occurred 40 yards down from the line of scrimmage.

    Here's my take and questions.

    Is Bodden coming back?

    Based on all info, it appears Bodden should be good to go. As such, another stud CB in the mix with Bodden/ McCourty forms a great basis. Likewise, Butler should be developed into a slot corner. That fits his skillset best.

    Arrington received much undeserved flack this year. He's a special teamer and 5th CB. He only played due to Bodden on IR. As 5th CB's go, he's pretty good and could hybrid to safety.

    With the picks, returns, and FA's this year, it's certainly feasible to have a 2011 secondary that exceeds anything the Jets and Packers produced in 2010. Adding in Guyton and Fletcher only makes coverage more effective.

    Is T Warren coming back?

    If he is, my first question is can G Warren be resigned. It's interesting this year how Vince seemed to enjoy playing DE. Likewise, with G Warren, a Warren, Warren, Wilfork base is pretty beefy. Likewise (assuming they return), Pryor and Wright are "Jarvis Green" roll guys with Deaderick, Brace, Love, rotation guys.

    At this point, you can add based on value and potential and trade.

    ILB's look pretty good. Ofcourse, this assumes Spikes and Fletcher stay on the same projection.

    OLB is then the open question. Based on our picks, early selection team needs, and players "available" for trade; it's appears we have enough value to go get a stud BB covets.

    2011 plan

    Secondary- second to none.

    If there is a front seven guy- go get him.

    Draft/trade for maximum flexibility.
     
  10. MaineMan

    MaineMan 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    That's the debate in a nutshell - an effective pass rush v. "a pass rusher".

    To me, one of the basic principles of the 3-4 is that non-blitz pressure can come from any set of front seven positions on a given play. This also means that almost any front seven player might be dropping back into coverage on a given play. It's a "disguise" thing that works two ways to the advantage of the defense. Basing your pass rush on one premier guy takes both those advantages away by giving the offense someone to key on.

    Anyway, the Pats' best pass rush years have been those in which sacks ended up being widely distributed across the front seven. Yeah, I know, I know - "McGinest". The truth is that, the Pats' first season without McGinest, sacks went UP from 33 to 45 and were more widely distributed.
     
  11. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    :rocker:

    That is perhaps the most succinct and insightful summary of the issue I've ever seen. Kudos.
     
  12. Boston Boxer

    Boston Boxer U.S. Air Force Retired PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the lack of a pass rush on 3rd down AND the fact that we have zero LBs that can cover TE/RB in the passing game is why we were horrible on 3rd down.
     
  13. Titanium Coate Hanger

    Titanium Coate Hanger Rookie

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    Which is absolutely fine on third down in a likely passing situation. There is nothing wrong with a dedicated pass rusher that the offense will have to scheme against. A third down back and the emergence of the nickel corner as "quasi starters" in the league is predicated on the importance of third down and converting them to sustain drives. The Patriots are vulnerable via air attack and do poorly on 3rd downs.

    The game, esp defense, is about trade offs. When the Patriots run their "bend don't break" type of defense, it's a trade off. It's saying we don't want to give up the big play but we will give up something else. Elite pass rushers all come with some kind of trade off or deficiency.

    If the offense keys off of one or more guys, then good. Maybe it frees up another player to hit the QB. Maybe it rattles the QB if he has nerves. Maybe it forces the O line go into max protect, reducing the number of receivers by one.

    All around players, pure three down front seven players are very rare. The Pats, like other defenses, use different packages and personnel to account for the fact that the players do have strengths and limitations to consider. You have to work with the talent you have.

    Andy Reid, IMHO, forced his team to struggle badly for years offensively ( relative to what they could have been) by

    - Drafting poorly at WR for a very long time ( this has changed of late)
    - Running an extremely complex offense for his WRs to learn
    - By the time a WR might learn his system, they'd be knocking on the door of their second contract
    - Using a pass heavy offense despite having a QB who was not fully suited to the WCO and was not the most accurate QB in the world
    - Outright refusing to run the ball, even when his QB was older and hurt, even when his D was struggling.

    That offense was saved by McNabb and Westbrook for a long time.

    When your scheme is not congruent to the realities of your personnel and limitations, it's a plan to fail.

    Belichick spent countless pick and after pick and money and resources to beef up his secondary, but his current teams can't hit the QB. No secondary, no matter how talented, is going to be able to cover a play forever. He also didn't get great returns on some of his LB acquistions ( Burgess, Thomas, Colvin) If Belichick wants to be as hard headed as Reid, then fine, but it doesn't help the team in the long run. Honestly at some point, he's going to have to accept personnel with some limitations, maybe more than he'd like, so his D can actually consistently hit the QB.

    It's almost like guys want no tradeoffs whatsoever in exchange for a pass rush when the reality is the entire game is built around tradeoffs period. Maybe Clay Matthews isn't the best all around linebacker, but I can tell you this, if Mark Sanchez got hit four or five more times really hard by a Matthews type, that game might look different.

    Sometimes one premier guy who excels at only a few things is what you need to change the complexion of the unit.
     
  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Did we end the season as the worst team in the league on defensing 3rd down. I know we were there after 14. We we the worst team on 3rd down since Belichick arrived? Sure the rest can use upgradees, but I expect the rest will improve without addition (presuming that two come back out of Warren, Warren and Wright). We may have the normal changes in roster, but there is nothing generally wrong with our improving defense.
    ==========

    I agree that we need to focus directly on the 3rd down situation situation. I'm not sure it relevant whether a player who is key on 3rd down plays on 1st down. I know that Belichick wants a Seymour or a Lawrence Taylor. Perhaps, it is time to focus on better 3rd down talent in ONE player or TWO OR THREE. Of course, it is important to have a solid seconday. It seems that the impact player could be at DE, at OLB or even at CB (nickel).
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2011
  15. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    A pure pass rusher, who can only be modestly delayed by a single team and can't always even be stopped by a double team, is valuable in any defensive scheme. You just line him up, and play 10-on-9 otherwise in the scheme of your choice. There's not much to do about him on passing downs except keep him off the field via a no-huddle attack. Generally, he's also valuable on other downs as well -- a guy who can get into the backfield regularly is, on the whole, a good guy to have.

    But I just described somebody outrageously elite. Whether a scheme-busting ordinary mortal is good to have is a much closer call.
     
  16. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    Demarcus Ware is considered elite. He might even be "the elite".

    So why does Dallas suck and give up so many points and passing yards?

    What happened to Miami? They had Cameron Wake?

    Did Clay Matthews make the Packers secondary or did the secondary make Matthews?
     
  17. Titanium Coate Hanger

    Titanium Coate Hanger Rookie

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    I said "change the complexion of the unit" I.E. upgrade a unit that is on the rise but missing one key component.

    I DID NOT SAY "compensate entirely for failures within the entire unit"

    A single player can bring a team that's close over the edge, I doubt there are many players who can, singlehandedly, bring an entire defense, with multiple weaknesses everywhere, to the edge by himself. Maybe Reggie White. Maybe Lawrence Taylor. Maybe Ronnie Lott.

    I'm also discussing the hypothetical of even one single above average pass rusher in the Patriots/Jets game playing for the Pats D and getting some hits on Sanchez.

    Football is complex and at the same time, IMHO, it's not. The simple answer is you start hitting the QB and you keep hitting him over and over again, good things are probably going to happen for your defense.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2011
  18. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    My questions are not meant to be controntational in anyway.

    If given the choice, I would take the elite secondary, with flexible linebackers and a Dline that can rotate guys in who can pressure. Obviously, no team can be elite everywhere.

    In the end, all we have is what each poster would do and what BB actually does. Better understanding of what BB helps quell alot of the hysteria in the fanbase.
     
  19. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Another option I like they package 28+74 and move up into high teens. They could end up picking 17th and 18th and getting both the DE and OLB they need. Then address O-Line at 33 and 60 and still get some pretty good players and have the flexibility to trade up and down as needed.
     
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    At 60, we'd have our pick of the 2nd level offensive linemen. Belichick will make the determination, but I'm not sure that many project to be better prospects than Ohrnberger Connolly, Wendell or Bussey.

    My point in this thread is to discuss the resaonability of trading up so that we have the maximum chance of getting four impact players.

    I think that trading 60 and 74 for 38 does that best. We would than start with 17, 28, 33 and 38.

     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2011
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