Trade-Down Scenerios

[Charles Barwin]

Let's assume for a minute that BB, as always, doesn't see his ideal OLB at #22, sees a lot of depth in this draft, and wants to trade down.

A big stretch I know, lol.

Who are some of the coveted players that might be there at #22, and who are the teams that would covet them?

I think Tebow is high on the list. Jacksonville will be looking to grab him sometime in the twenties, by any means necessary. Several other teams are likely to want to jump in and grab him first. Which teams do you think will be competing to grab Tebow in the 20's?

Last year, Oher dropped and created demand for our pick.

Who else besides Tebow might be there at 22 that teams would view as worthy of trading up for?

Perhaps an OT like Davis?
Spiller
Bryant
Graham, if there
Earl Thomas
Weatherspoon
Odrick
Dan Williams
possibly Dunlap

Teams are more likely to trade up if there is a significant drop-off seen after a particular player who is still available is gone.

Tebow is a cash cow with upside
Davis might be seen as the last special OT available in the draft
Spiller and Bryant would be seen as steals that low
Earl Thomas would likely be seen as just a notch below Berry, after which there is a big drop-off at free safety
Weatherspoon is the top 4-3 linebacker in the draft by a clear amount
After Odrick is a drop-off in safe, quality 3-4 ends.
Dan Williams is the top Nose in the draft
Graham's production and motor make him a very safe pick, especially at the high risk 3-4 OLB conversion position

That may be it for prospects potentially available at 22 that teams would be burning to trade up for.

Mays, Dunlap and a couple others might be slight draws, but probably not enough for teams to go after.

So who are some likely suitors for the top group of prospects, and what might we be likely to get for them?

23 GREEN BAY PACKERS + 56 + 86
24 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES + 55 + 87
25 BALTIMORE RAVENS +57
26 ARIZONA CARDINALS + 58 + 88 + 89
27 DALLAS COWBOYS + 59 + 90
28 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS + 60 + 91
29 NEW YORK JETS + 61
30 MINNESOTA VIKINGS + 62 + 93
31 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS + 63 + 94
32 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS + 64 + 95

33 ST. LOUIS RAMS + 65
34 DETROIT LIONS + 66
35 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS + 42 + 67
36 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS + 50 + 68
37 WASHINGTON REDSKINS
38 CLEVELAND BROWNS + 71 + 85 + 92
39 OAKLAND RAIDERS + 69
40 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
41 BUFFALO BILLS + 72
42 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
43 MIAMI DOLPHINS + 73

 

[WhiZa]

Looks like you put a lot of effort into this. I'd be interested to see if any of these trades actually happen. If BB can get another 2nd by trading down I think he would.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

Great post! Would love to see a trade with TB, for 2 2's and a 3rd.

 

[patchick]

Great post, trades have to work both ways. FWIW, here's the trade I have in my personal Pats mock of the moment:

22 TRADE: New England trades #22 + #190 to Minnesota for #30, #93 and #161. Minnesota drafts safety Taylor Mays.

 

[bakes781]

Great post, trades have to work both ways. FWIW, here's the trade I have in my personal Pats mock of the moment:

22 TRADE: New England trades #22 + #190 to Minnesota for #30, #93 and #161. Minnesota drafts safety Taylor Mays.

I like it but if we're gonna trade down wouldn't it be ideal to get out of the 1st round entirely where the $ goes down considerably?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I like it but if we're gonna trade down wouldn't it be ideal to get out of the 1st round entirely where the $ goes down considerably?

Not always. This trade has the advantage of filling the two holes in the draft board.

 

[patchick]

I like it but if we're gonna trade down wouldn't it be ideal to get out of the 1st round entirely where the $ goes down considerably?

Personally, I'm not worried about affording the #30 overall pick. I'm not even worried about finding "1st round value" there -- it's more like getting your choice of any player in round 2.

 

[upstater1]

Just wanted to reverse the scenarios a little bit.

If we trade down from 22 to say 33 we pick a 3rd rounder.

Then, if we trade 44 and 47 for 27 and an early 3rd rounder, we move back into the first round.

So, we'd be left with...

27
33
5X
66
78
4th rd
4th (Adalius Thomas)

I prefer multiple 3rd round picks because of the WR situation. IMO, there are lots of WRs with great abilities in the NFL, but they all have question marks. I'd love to grab one or two of them, and having 5 picks in the first three rounds instead of four, gives that latitude.

 

[bakes781]

Perhaps we can workout a draft day deal with our old pal Scott and nab the 36th and 68th overall picks for the 22nd. My thinking for the Chiefs would be they desperately want to improve the pass protection for Matt Cassel, so maybe they want to make a play for Anthony Davis or Trent Williams. By getting to #22 they sneak just ahead of the Packers and Eagles who could also be looking OL.

 

[Clonamery]

Just wanted to reverse the scenarios a little bit.

If we trade down from 22 to say 33 we pick a 3rd rounder.

Then, if we trade 44 and 47 for 27 and an early 3rd rounder, we move back into the first round.

So, we'd be left with...

27
33
5X
66
78
4th rd
4th (Adalius Thomas)

I prefer multiple 3rd round picks because of the WR situation. IMO, there are lots of WRs with great abilities in the NFL, but they all have question marks. I'd love to grab one or two of them, and having 5 picks in the first three rounds instead of four, gives that latitude.

The only thing not possible by all reason's sake is getting a 4th for Thomas.

 

[Snake Eyes]

The only thing not possible by all reason's sake is getting a 4th for Thomas.

The Jets would be all over Thomas for a 4th.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

The Jets would be all over Thomas for a 4th.

First of all, why would Belichick trade him within the division to our biggest rival? Even if you think the guy is a bum, it won't happen.

Second, why would the Jets, a team already low on draft picks, give up a 4th for Thomas? If they wait a little they can have him for free. It would be idiotic if they gave up a 4th. Although we wish they were that dumb, they unfortunately aren't.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Instead of trading down, why don't the pats PICK on of these GREAT players.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Instead of trading down, why don't the pats PICK on of these GREAT players.

I agree, I want us to go up and get Suh.

Hopwever short of that, I would think that if QB Claussen was on the board at #22, BB could bleed one of teams with an early second round pick to the tune of the 2010 second rounder and a 2011 first rounder. (Washington for instance?)

 

[Snake Eyes]

First of all, why would Belichick trade him within the division to our biggest rival? Even if you think the guy is a bum, it won't happen.

Second, why would the Jets, a team already low on draft picks, give up a 4th for Thomas? If they wait a little they can have him for free. It would be idiotic if they gave up a 4th. Although we wish they were that dumb, they unfortunately aren't.

BB might trade him if he thinks the relative advantage of a pick outweighed the disadvantage, if Thomas would be that useful to the Jets they would probably be willing to pay for him.

The Jets would give up a 4th for him if they thought the risk of taking him was lower than the risk of drafting a guy who is a lot more of an unknown.

There is no guarantee of getting Thomas for free, if no one is willing to pay for him we can keep him, we don't need to unload him.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think there are two likely trade scenarios.

One is to Detroit, who would love to get a stud OT to protect Stafford.
The Second is to Cleveland is rumored to be enamored with Colt McCoy and might want to move up into the 1st to make sure they get their man.
If BOTH teams come calling, then we can play them against each other and get the best deal. If only one comes calling here's the compensation I would accept.

A) Our #22 for their 2nd this year and their 1st in 2011 OR
B) Our #22 for their 2nd and 3rd this year and a 2nd in 2011.

#22 point value = 780

Detroit 2nd = 560, Detroit 3rd = 260
Cleveland 2nd = 520, Cleveland 3rd = 235 or 165 or 132

Draft Countdown - Trade Value Chart

Since Cleveland has the most picks, I see them as the more likely trade partner. They can easily afford to give up a 2nd and 3rd in this year's draft since they have three 3rd round picks. Cleveland gets their QB prospect this year, and only has to give up a 2nd next year.

I'd even take one of their later 3rd round picks this year to make the deal happen. Then the Pats would have four 2nd round picks this year, a 3rd round pick, and two 1sts and two 2nds in 2011.

The Pats would then have:

Round 2
#39
#44
#47
#53
Round 3
#85
Round 4
#117

Then I'd trade back one of our four 2nd round picks for a 3rd and a future 2nd.

Round 2
#39
#47
#53
Round 3
#85
#XX
Round 4
#117

That would give us SIX picks in rounds 2-4.
And it would give us an additional TWO 2nd rounders in 2011.

2011
Two 1st rounders
Three 2nd rounders

And this isn't even counting possible trades of Thomas and/or Maroney.
Hard to beat that value.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Instead of trading down, why don't the pats PICK on of these GREAT players.

To potentially get more value, if a team has a lot of holes to fill trading down to get more picks can make a lot more sense.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Instead of trading down, why don't the pats PICK on of these GREAT players.

It's because the players available at #22 aren't likely to be all that 'Great' as you put it. They probably won't be much better than the players in round 2. Although teams that need a PARTICULAR player might be willing to trade up to get him. This gives the Pats the ability to pick up far more value in this year's draft and possibly for 2011's draft as well.

For example:
Would I rather have Brandon Graham (rd1) or Jerry Hughes (rd2) + Ben Tate (rd3) + a 2011 2nd rounder? I'll take the latter every time.

 

[CTHuskies]

Great post, trades have to work both ways. FWIW, here's the trade I have in my personal Pats mock of the moment:

22 TRADE: New England trades #22 + #190 to Minnesota for #30, #93 and #161. Minnesota drafts safety Taylor Mays.

Don't see need to give up #190 - points almost same without it. Only reason to do it is that Pats want to move out of #22

 

[VJCPatriot]

I like it but if we're gonna trade down wouldn't it be ideal to get out of the 1st round entirely where the $ goes down considerably?

Pick #30 doesn't make enough money to worry about.
We took Maroney at #21 and his cap hit is a pittance.