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Trade a 2011 2nd back into this year

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Mar 25, 2010.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This seems the best way to get a 3rd or a 3rd and a 5th.
  2. patriotscpfc

    patriotscpfc Rookie

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    Not really.

    Trading down in either first or second round could get us a third.

    Trading a player could get us a third.
  3. Nonentity

    Nonentity Rookie

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    It'll be situational - it's not the sort of trade you can agree in advance. If the right player is falling and they're a solid prospect (rather than a boom-bust pick) then I'd be ok with it. But a future 2nd round pick is not the kind I'd be too happy with busting on, unlike a normal 3rd - hopefully that distinction makes sense!
  4. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    There are only so many rookies we can keep before things get pretty wasteful.

    Vets it would be wasteful to cut

    DBs: 9-10
    LBs: 4+ Mayo, Guyton, TBC, McKenzie (we hope), Crable (we hope with less optimism)
    DL: 5 Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Brace, Pryor

    plus there's Burgess

    That's around 20 returning guys, assuming I'm not missing anybody

    K/LS: 2 returning guys

    TE: 1 under contract
    RBs: 4+ keepers (Faulk, Maroney, Morris, Taylor)
    WRs: 5+ keepers (Moss, Tate, Edelman, maybe Stanbach, maybe Aiken, maybe Slater, maybe a new vet -- Welker doesn't count against the initial 53)
    QBs: 2
    OL: 6+ keepers (last year's starters, Vollmer, the best backups)

    Yes, we could keep 5+ rookies each on offense and defense, plus a punter. But that only makes sense if the rest of FA is really as sparse as the pessimists fear.
  5. reamer

    reamer Rookie

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    Oh, heck no!
  6. Taxed in Maine

    Taxed in Maine Rookie

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    Honestly, IF they can get two solid players at 22 & 44, I would rather trade 47 or 53 back for a pair of 3rd with CLE or PHI.

    That would still give us a 1st - two 2nds - and two 3rds.

    It would be enough to get a DE, OLB, WR, and two of OL-TE-RB in the top 100 picks.
  7. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What would be better as if we never traded a 5th for a guy who never even made the club!!

    The Pats have wasted a few draft picks lately on players who never even say the field.
  8. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    We have enough picks in round 1 and 2 to make up for the loss of a 3rd
  9. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    For what purpose? Just to have a 3rd? Then what do you do next year when you dont have a second?
    It only makes sense to do that if there is a player on the board that you value more than next years 2nd, not just because we dont have a 3rd round pick.
  10. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    We have 12 picks in this years draft 4 in the first 2 RDs!!! are you really complaining about the way they trade picks? Giving up a 5 for anything you think can help your team IMO is very much worth it especially when your draft is as stocked as it is now. Sure with hindsight I wish they hadn't done it but I can't criticize the value of the trade (you could criticize the pro scouts or BB who signed off on it for their evaluation of the player but not the giving up a pick)

    News flash every team wastes picks on guys who never see the field they are called draft busts. So who cares if we wasted a 5 on vet player instead of a dud rookie?



    As to the OP: I think this all depends on what is there that you are trying to get. Due to the depth of this draft I wouldn't rule it out but it hasn't exactly been this teams MO to reduce its draft flexability in one year for another years draft.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2010
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, if we have 4+ keepers at RB and 5+ keepers at WR, then we are all set.

    Have you decided how much of that Brooklyn Bridge stock you want to buy?
    ===============
    I generally with your numbers. I count 11 open roster spots, plus possible upgrades. I too have included Burgess as signed. As you, I expect free agents to compete for many of the 11 open rosters spots.

    DEFENSIVE KEEPERS (22) with 3 openings (DB, OLB, DE)
    DB 8 (Bodden, Butler, Wilhite, Springs/Wheatley, Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan)
    LB 7 (Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Banta-Cain, Woods, Burgess, Nickovich/Crable)
    DL 5 (Warren, Wilfork, Wright, Brace, Pryor)
    ST 2 (Slater, Lockett/Arrington/Alexander)
    -------------------------------------
    OFFENSIVE KEEPERS (18) with 7 openings (OL, OL, TE, QB, WR, WR, RB)
    OL 7 Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Vollmer, Kaczur, Connolly/Ohrnberger
    TE 1 Crumpler
    QB 2 Brady, Hoyer
    RB 4 Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Morris/BJGE
    WR 4 Moss, Edelman, Tate, Aiken

    SPECIALISTS AND SPECIAL TEAMERS (2) with 1 open (punter)
    K 1 Gostkowski
    LS 1 Ingram
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2010
  12. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Quality over quantity
  13. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If the Pats are going to trade a 2011 pick for an extra pick this year, then why not trade their own 2011 #1 for another 2010 #2? This draft is supposed to have over fifty first-round grade players, so a 2nd round pick, where you can draft one of those players, is far more valuable than a third. It also stands to reason that if this draft class is that good, then 2011's probably won't be. Regardless the team will still have a 1st in 2011.

    As far as that becoming 'too many' picks, the team still has no 3rd or 5th. Right now the team has five picks in the first five rounds - the same number as if no trades had been made; one more makes it six picks in five rounds. Think of it as the only difference being you're making your 3rd and 5th round picks earlier. Then all those 7th's are guys you had targeted as undrafted free agents. You can still add free agents later in the off-season, but with all the draft picks it is no longer as much of a pressing need.
  14. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Of all the scenarios yours is most congruent with my thinking. If there's a feast of talent in 2010, why not participate? The plethora of 2nds would let us move up and pick precisely the talents we need. Let our many late picks simply ensure that the UFAs we want are ours. Fodder for the PS as developmentals.
  15. Nonentity

    Nonentity Rookie

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    I'm not really opposed to trading our 2011 1st, given the weak class prediction. But there will still be plenty of blue-chip juniors coming out in 2011, along with those players who returned for their senior year - so I like Oakland's high (hopefully) 2011 1st rounder. A couple of strong QBs, numerous WRs, Patrick Peterson, plus the usual plethora of linemen.
  16. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    Agreed. It seems so many people are worried that we don't have a 3rd or 5th round pick. We have 3 2nd round picks... 3! Why waste next years 2nd?? Also, we have a total of 12 picks, how many more do we need? Maybe trade a couple of the 7ths to move up.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2010
  17. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Colts vs. Patriots
  18. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A) This is a great draft, the best in years.
    B) Next year is not such a good draft.
    C) We SHOULD want to participate more in this year's draft.
    D) We now exactly ZERO extra picks in the first five rounds. We have five picks, the same as in any other year.
    E) Some may have great hopes for the seven picks in the sixth and seventh rounds. That's as it should be. Personally, I just think of the five late sevenths a UDFA's. Certainly, there is no reason that they have much better a chance at the roster. I am NOT dissing late picks and UDFA's. Belichick does very well with these opportunities.

    F) CONCLUSION
    So, in the best draft in years, folks want to know why we would waste a 2011 pick to have one more pick in 2010 than we would have in a more normal draft year. What can I say? I would rather have more picks than normal in a great draft year. Perhaps you could explain why you disagree.

    G) A FINAL NOTE
    We may have trouble finding partners to trade into this draft. We have three picks in the first two rounds of the 2011 draft. I am fine with trading wither our own 1st or our 2nd for a 2010 pick. We need the extra pick this year, not next year. And this does NOT depend on who is there. We all have very long lists of players who we would like to draft from pick 22 to 100 of this draft.


  19. bakes781

    bakes781 Rookie

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    To boil this down for some...

    The 40th player taken in next month's draft would be equivalent to that of the 20th taken a year from now. So it would be highly advantageous to stockpile now. We have no selections in the 3rd or 5th currently and with many of our day 3 picks being compensatory we have very little flexibility there.

    Trading what is likely to be the 26th(at best) pick in 2011 for say the 35th this year would be a huge win for us.
  20. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm thinking what may be the biggest selling point for a potential trading partner that will make the 2011 draft more appealing is the next CBA. If another team is confident a new CBA will be reached and that will include strict rookie wage scale, as well as more limiting salary cap, they may want to make that type of move. A team with limited finances could be drawn to the concept of getting a 2011 first rounder for the same cost as a 2010 second round pick. Also a team that is concerned about its cash flow or a 2011 lockout may want to avoid paying a big signing bonus and salary to a 2010 draft pick.

    Perhaps those ideas may be a bit of a reach, but all it would take is one team to buy in to one of those ideas.
  21. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    Hmmm, who won that last meeting?
    I totally Disagree because I guarantee that the 32nd prospect picked in next years draft has a much higher grade than any of the prospects picked in the third round this year. People talk about the Jets "mortgaging their future" wtf are we doing trading a 1st next year for a third this year? Too me its extremely short sighted.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2010
  22. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It doesnt matter if "WE" have long lists of players we like in that group it matters if there are players BB likes enough to trade for. To say it doesnt depend on who is available because you like players you think will be on the board is obtuse unless you have scouted them, interviewed them at the combine and considered how their strengths and weaknesses fit our system and needs.
    I get that you are in love with this draft and would trade all of next years for a few more picks, but i will caution you that predicting the quality of nexts years draft now is far from an exact science as evidenced by the guys who are top 20 picks in a May mock that end up drafted in the 4th, 5th, or not at all, which is common.
  23. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I absolutely agree that what we think isn't what really matters. It is belichick who evaluates this draft and next. And as always, Belichick will look as trading between drafts. Belichick will compare value in particual positions in this draft compared with his projections to next year.

    Obviously, if he is making a trade for a particular pick, the uncertainlty is somewhat removed. However, my guess is that RIGHT NOW Belichick knows how he values various pick from next year.
    =========

    My position is straightforward, We have 5 picks in the first 5 rounds this year, and 6 in the first five rounds next year. IF WE CAN GET REASONABLE VALUE (as judged by Belichick), I would much rather have an extra pick in this draft than next.

    I do not understand why folks prefer an extra pick in the 2011 draft compared to this draft.

  24. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No one has suggested a trade of a 2011 first for a 2010 third. The patriots have often traded a current third for a future second. Having a pick a year earlier has a certain value, usually a half to a full round.

    As has been the case in the past, one would expect a trade of a 2010 third for a 2011 second. The patriots have made two such trades just last year.



  25. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    To be succesful this year, the Pats need to have 3 stud players come out of this draft.... If they are trading picks to next year or beyond, they are not improving for this year, and wasting another year of Tom Brady's carrer... I thought they learned thier lesson in 06 when they didnt give him weapons, and the next year we know what happend with weapons.. Lets gets some players now, because FA is a bust which I thought would be...
  26. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Hear, hear. Trade all our trade-able picks in this year's draft to move up to #1. If all our picks aren't enough to move that high, throw in picks from 2011, but get the first pick in the draft. Quality, baby, not quantity. Take Suh. Now you're talking!
  27. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    That's because you are mis-stating what people prefer.

    I'm sure you could understand why folks would prefer a second round pick to a third round pick?

    If you think of it in those terms, then you can understand the difference in opinion. Which is better? A third this year or a second next year.

    But as someone said: it isn't an absolute; it depends on situation. If a player BB covets is available in the third this year, that is worth giving up a second next year. But if there is no one on the board BB really has the hots for when the third round is being played out, then it is not worth trading a second from 2011 for a third this year.

    It seems pretty simple to me.
  28. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Useful summary -- but surely Mark Levoir is a keeper on the O-line.
  29. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If everything else is equal, than I am on board for waiting for an earlier pick in almost every circumstance; generally speaking I'd rather wait a year for the better pick.

    But from what I have read everything is not equal between the 2010 draft and the 2011 draft. This year's draft class is supposed to be the deepest in thirty years, with over fifty players that grade out as first-round talents. With that being the case the player you draft in the 2nd round in 2010 is probably going to be just as good as the player you draft in the 1st round in 2011.

    You could even go a step further and say that if their are this many 1st-round grade players in 2010, then there will probably be fewer than average 1st-round grade players in 2011. In other words the player you take in the 1st round in 2011 may only be a 2nd round talent. That would make trading a 2011 1st for a 2010 2nd even more logical since you could be adding a 1st-round talent now as opposed to adding a 2nd-round talent a year from now.

    Bottom line is that normally I would prefer to hold on to next year's pick. But since this is supposed to be the strongest and deepest draft class in decades, then to me it makes sense to try to add another pick in the first two rounds.
  30. Nonentity

    Nonentity Rookie

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    Strong draft class for who? Deep draft class for who?

    Every team personalises draft boards to their own scheme and needs. If the remaining players in the 3rd round don't fit our scheme/needs, there's no point in drafting them.


    That is all that we're trying to say.
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