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Top 6/Bottom 6 Drafts

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Apr 27, 2009.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    I put a high value on teams that did not trade up and sacrifice their future, or throw a ton of money at big names, unless they had to. I believe the key to this draft was recognizing it was devoid of a lot of great players, but ran deep with good ones. I don't pretend to know if these players will bust or not, so I evaluate it based on value, position, historical odds, and where these teams have left themselves for the future. There are too many teams with great drafts one year, then no draft picks the next year. Meanwhile, teams like New England, Pittsburgh, and the NY Giants rarely trade up and sacrifice their future, but focus on value, not overpaying, and keeping their picks for the future to strike when the iron is hot.


    Top Six Best Drafts

    6. (tie) Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks. The Texans have quitely put together a ferocious front seven. Adding to their strength, they picked up Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin without having to trade up. Patience was key in this draft, and getting Barwin in the mid second round was a great pickup. Along with Demeco Ryans and Mario Williams, the Texans are focusing on building an elite defense, realizing their offense is only a playmaker or two from making them a serious contender. The Seahawks did not try to get cute and drafted the most solid, sure thing in the draft in Aaron Curry. They also picked up a solid center in Max Unger, who dropped to round 2. They get high grades for passing on a risky franchise quarterback in Sanchez, who has played about 12 games. Make no mistake, the Seahawks will soon need a new quarterback, but they will wait until the time is right.

    5. Miami Dolphins. The Phins took some risky picks, but when in doubt, go with Parcells. While Vontae Davis has been labeled a prima donna, Parcells is a guy who has seen it all and wouldn't pick a guy he can't control. Despite our laughing at Joey Porter and his ****iness, we weren't laughing last year when he sacked Cassel about 34 times. As I say below, there are some players with character problems that should not be drafted by certain teams, but the Phins are an organizaton ruled by the iron fist of Parcells. The Phins also picked up Pat White in the second round, another guy who Parcells values because of his unique skill set that was unmatched in the draft. Looks like we are in for more of that darn Wildcat formation, but this time it could be more lethal and unpredictable. If something is working, why not stick to it? At worst, the Dolphins have a solid second-third string quarterback who can come in at wide receiver and maybe return kicks. Sean Smith is another guy with a great upside; with Brady returning, Parcells knows he needs a great secondary and he may have hit the jackpot with two of the top rated corners in the draft relatively cheap.

    4. Cleveland Browns. You may want to read the entry on the New York Jets, who were the willing trade partner with their old snitch Eric Mangini. But Mangini made a shrewd decision in evaluating a poor draft with inflated salaries, and somehow trading out of the top five while still picking at #21, getting some more picks, and even getting his choice of former Jets he wants, all of whom were really cheap and who he knows better than anyone. Mangini also made a shrewd decision; he drafted Robiskie and Massaquoi, two receivers who could be solid starters. The odds tell us that one of these guys will be good, while Heyward-Bey, Harvin, Crabtree, and and Maclin will probably result in one, if not two, busts. In other words, Mangini will probably get a solid receiver with much less risk, as these guys are cheap while the aforementioned "stars" will cripple their franchises with huge contracts, and a few of them with huge egos. Chalk up the "W" to Mangini here, despite the pundits dancing around the Jets and their big name pick.

    3. Jacksonville Jaguars. Holy shnikees!!! Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton? The Jags just drafted two top-of-the-line tackles, who are both unlikely to bust. What do you do with a guy like Britton, who has dropped a bit due to concerns about his left tackle skills? Put him at right tackle, since you just drafted Montroe, a stud left tackle. For most teams, building a unit, such as linebackers, secondary, etc., takes a few years of shrewd drafting and free agency. The Jags built a strong offensive line with these two bookends, in one day.

    2. New York Giants. Just like the David Tyree catch (sorry Pats fans), this was just sheer great fortune and readiness to seize an opportunity. Jerry Reese and co. were ready to snatch up a bunch of gems that fell into their laps. Hakeem Nicks, Clint Sintim, and William Beatty were all mentioned as first rounders. Ramses Barden is a great pickup that I wish the Pats had considered... he should be a great red zone threat with his size. Imagine two Randy Moss-type specimens with the ball on the two yard line? The Giants had another great draft without mortgaging their future like most other teams. The rich get richer, which is the modern day NFL, despite attempts to even things out.

    1. New England Patriots. I feel the Patriots had the best draft of any team... they addressed all of their concerns (which they felt worthy of drafting, which was not OLB), and somehow stockpiled up two more second rounders for next season. That will give them a staggering 8 first day selections over two years, while most teams have four, and others have less. While they may not have the most immediate impact and star-power, that clearly hasn't been the key to success in the NFL. Part of the draft's challenge is to evaluate salaries, position, and value. The Patriots clearly saw this is a weak draft with a lot of guys that could go anywhere from 20 to 55, so their positioning was perfect to catch most of the guys they wanted, and cheap. Next season they will again be in prime position. Stockpiling picks allows them flexibility to trade up or down, especially with a roster capable of winning 14 games every year. One thing the Patriots did well this year was pick up a bunch of players early in free agency, so they are not desperate like other teams come draft day... so for those of you still fuming about the Cassel trade, consider their comfortable position yesterday which they would not have had with Cassel tying up all that money.

    The Patriots are like the mean creditors that make their money off of struggling, desperate debtors. In some cases, like yesterday, they charge a REALLY high rate of return, one that is unreasonable (a third for a next year's second), yet they always seem to find that desperate Johnny who just needs those new rims so badly. They traded #23 (later turned into Clay Matthews Jr at 26) for #41, and a third, which they parlayed into a second rounder next year. In other words, Clay Matthews Jr for two Darius Butler type players. Butler could have gone at #23, but they were patient and essentially got two for one. There's a reason why they win so many games, and it starts with the draft.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  2. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Bottom Six Drafts

    6. Indianapolis Colts. I have trouble, seriously, in questioning Bill Polian's draft. Polian, let's face it, is one of the best drafters ever, and rarely chooses a bust. In fact, the Colts did not have a bad draft and did upgrade in some key positions. But the first round pick is where the pot of gold is, and I'm not understanding the reasoning. Draft by player, and not by need? Yeah right. That must be why they chose Anthony Gonzalez and Joseph Addai, right? This team always seems to rate offensive players higher than defensive players, despite having a field general that turns everything to gold (presumably). The Colts are a team that's window is closing; not that they won't be good, but their dominance is already starting to crumble. It's time to build a serious defense, and do it now. The Colts still have a terrible run defense and are a Bob Sanders injury away from tanking it. Last year the team looked very vulnerable, but that offense has all the elements to score points. Now, is there any Pats fan out there that fears the Colts now that they have Donald Brown to go along with Joseph Addai? I didn't think so. Brown could be a great running back, but how many more wins will it lead to? Joseph Addai is a fine running back who had a bad season. There are about a zillion free agents out there that would sign a two year contract (see Fred Taylor); there is never a shortage of guys who can run for 4 ypc with a good offensive line. The Colts always build by the draft and shun free agents for the most part, and I believe they're starting to get stubborn. Unless Donald Brown is close to Adrian Peterson, this pick was counterproductive. This is one team that does need to draft for need at this stage in the game.

    5. Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings get a failing grade simply for being the only team arrogant enough not to field phone calls or offers for the pick. That's right, you wait six months for your ten minutes of clock time, then after about thirty seconds you announce your pick. "You have one, new message. Hi Brad, this is Al Davis. I would like to trade you my next three number one picks for #22. Deal? Call me back if there's not better offer." Brad didn't need to hear any offers because he was busy drafting Percy Harvin, the only player in NCAA history to lead a team to a national title and then cause a collective sigh of relief that he's gone. Childress's reason? He was told that the Patriots verbally committed to Harvin that they would draft him. Anyone who knows Bill Belichick realizes he has strong loyalties to Urban Meyer, admires and encourages his players, and would draft Harvin, provided he was available in the fourth round. The Patriots just passed on Terrell Owens, so why would they want Terrell Owens with bust potential, on a team with more receivers than a FedEx distribution center? Childress was so high on his pick he was basically gloating that he outsmarted Belichick; even if Belichick did want him round one, I don't really see how he outsmarted him by having an earlier draft position due a worse record, in a worse division, after the Patriots lost Brady for the season.

    4. Oakland Raiders. Ussain Bolt must have been off the board because I don't see any other reason Al Davis didn't draft him. The Raiders do not understand that their draft needs are different from most teams (really fast, really self-centered, really likely to bust.) Therefore they are still not aware that they could have easily traded down for Heyward-Bey and Mitchell. I don't buy that the Bears were going to draft Mitchell; most scouts had him rated around round 6 or 7, or off the board. Heyward-Bey was like a terrible joke that your father is about to say in a formal situation, and you're going to feel really uncomfortable. At first it's kind of in the back of your mind, but you're telling yourself there's no way... then your dad starts to drink a little... and a little more, and you're heart is beating fast... and then... finally... you can see the bewildered, embarassed faces of your in-laws before the first line. This is kind of like Raiders fans at the draft, waiting for the unfathomably stupid to happen, and then being reminded that the Raiders are not an organization that makes stupid decisions, but they are actually stupid. They could have probably done something like this: Draft Eugene Monroe at #7 (wait, you mean an offensive tackle to protect Russell!), trade their number 2 pick and number 3 pick to the Patriots at #23, draft Heyward-Bey, and select Mitchell, or one of the 67 safeties that were rated higher than him) in the fourth round. But hey, they wouldn't do that, because it's not like a stud offensive tackle would help them anyway, right?

    3. Carolina Panthers. Could someone please explain to me the unfathomable reason why they would trade a first rounder in 2010 for Everette Brown at number 43. And why didn't they make the same offer to the Patriots at #41? Who knows? Bottom line is, Everette Brown went from being a consensus top 15 pick to a guy that no one wanted to invest a high pick in. It's questionable whether he would have been available even lower, given his free falling. This is potentially one of the no-brainer worst exchanges of value I have ever seen... a mid-second round pick for what may end up being a top 15 pick. Every year there are potential first rounders that fall into the second round, and when they get to number 43, they have a funny name for them... they are called "second round picks." The value of a player is determined by his market value and the desirability of his services; Brown's slide is the NFL's way of saying "we are aware of his first round talent, and we don't want him yet." Absolute insanity to trade your future, especially considering all of the "potential first round picks" that were selected in the second round without having to trade a true first rounder: Clint Sintim, Eben Britton, Max Unger, Darius Butler. You could make an argument for about 12 other guys. You're telling me none of these guys are close to Everette Brown, and he is worth an additional first rounder?

    2. Cincinnati Bengals. At some point I think Roger Goodell should just step in and threaten to take the franchise away from this ownership. The Bengals took three picks whose free falling draft stock leads me to believe they were off about 28 teams' boards. Of those three picks, my guess is one of them will end up in jail, two of them will end up with suspensions next season, and three of them will continue to be prima donnas who just got their payday and have pretty much achieved their goal of making a lot of money and playing football with no regard for winning. Granted, had a team with some good veteran leadership drafted Maulauga, A Smith, or Michael Johnson, it may have been a good gamble, but some teams should have learned the hard lesson over and over again that talent alone does not translate into success. It seems difficult to translate a player's physical talents into NFL success, but quite predictable to figure out their bad attitude and will carry over to the next level. The Bengals' locker room will continue to resmeble Alcatraz, with the few good men trying to get out from their hopeless sentence in NFL hell, while the rest of the inmates are running the asylum.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    1. New York Jets. With most teams desperately trying to trade out of the top 5, the Jets traded into it. Their failure to identify this was a REALLY weak draft with a top five team having the worst burden in years, gives the Jets the disctinction of most desperate draft. Why do you think the Chiefs wouldn't give up their 3rd pick for Cassel? Do you really think Belichick wanted it? Let's get something straight that the other 31 teams understood- the talent in this draft was NOT good, and quarterback was no exception. Why do you think Jay Cutler was so expensive? You think he would have been worth all those picks if there were good quarterbacks on the board? The Lions took Matt Stafford after no team would touch their pick with the $70M salary it commanded, and boy, did they ever want to trade down. If we could combine the last two years drafts, the quarterback ratings would go: Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Sanchez, with the latter two being likely second round picks. EVERYONE knew that Stafford and Sanchez were another Alex Smith- Aaron Rodgers situation, where both were overrated but somehow rated better because they were compared against other QBs this year, and not against QBs in general. But the wisdom in that draft was to wait on Rodgers, and keep his real value in perspective- the jury is still on him after four years. Ditto on Brady Quinn, whose stock dropped when teams realized being the second best quarterback in draft full of poor quarterbacks, was not an honor.

    While mediots are praising this decision, the salary that an unproven quarterback will command will likely be at or above the range of already proven elite quarterbacks. Sanchez will be thrust into a Jets offense with no playmakers and deal with elite AFC East defenses during his first season, with expectations for a #5 pick who was ranked closer to 15 until a Kiper-led hype storm hit three weeks ago. From the sunny, laid back beaches of California and the best team in the nation to the neurotic, paranoid refridgerator of the Big Apple football factory, this pick reeks of desperation by GM Mike Tennenbaum, who knows his job is on thin ice.

    The Jets win the offseason for the second year in a row by desperatey grabbing a quarterback, by unanimous decision by NFL network and ESPN. Bold move. Bold move. Bold apparently means good, just like with Favre last year. Unfortunately there is still a season to play, and these same pundits praise teams every year for desperately getting big hyped-up names, and the USC starter makes them salivate. Sanchez is, at best, a good quarterback perhaps worth the money they will pay him, and at worst, a dissapointment that sets the team back another 3-4 years. The scary part is, for Jets fans, it appears it's the system and not the quarterback... look at Chad Pennington in Miami. A $50M contract seems like a lot of money to spend on taking that gamble, which is historically about a 50/50 proposition... why do you think the Lions, Rams, Seahawks, and Chiefs couldn't find a trading partner with any of the other 27 teams besides the Jets?
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  4. Mainefan

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Good stuff, Ice Ice. Gives us a lot to think about.

    Personally, I was somewhat disappointed with the Pats draft...I would have liked one top-notch pass rusher (instead of Cave, for instance). But who knows? I do like Butler and I'm ready to like Chung if the good reviews are more accurate than the mediocre ones.
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    I think the Jets are acting like a team that is a QB away from a dynasty when in fact they have been a team that has had a good enough QB but lacked the rest of the pieces for years.
    Sanchez is not as good as Favre or Pennington were last year. And probably never will be.
    The team surrounding the QB has not been, and still isnt, good enough and now instead of correcting that they put an enormous amount of resources and risk into hoping they found a good one.
    Basically you traded a whole draft to replace last years best 2 players with players who wont be as good, and are committing franchise QB money to a hope, preventing you from having $$ to fix anything else.
  6. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Yeah alot of us wanted a pass rusher (myself included), but alot of us wanted a smashmouth DB too that's been missing since Rodney's injury in '05 (Chung). We'll hopefully get a better look at Crable this year who's forte is rushing the QB. And Jason Taylor is still a possibility for this season as well. Overall I'm very pleased with this draft and think it will pan out well for us.
  7. K-Ro 25

    K-Ro 25 Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    I have no clue how you can rip the move up for Sanchez, unless you truly hate him that much as a prospect. They traded essentially their 1st and 2nd and got a potential franchise QB. A franchise QB is invaluable. They traded a scrub in Kenyon Coleman who I have killed for 1 yrs and a half, our backup SS in Abram Elam and Brett Ratliff who I think has potential but is a UDFA project plus a 2nd to pair with their first to go up and possible grab a franchise QB. You dont let 3 reserves get in the way of getting a QB with his upside.

    Your telling me there is a risk in Sanchez. Your telling me nothing new. The Colts had to take a chance when then took Manning, same w/ the Steelers and Big Ben, Giants and Manning etc. It doesnt mean you never take a QB top ten. IF we stand pat and never took a QB then whats our answer at the biggest hole you can have in football? You knock them for being proactive but offer no resolution as what they should have done besides stand pat at 17 and pray a QB slips. This was not a Smith Rodgers situation when you had the Skins who also showed interest in moving up to get Sanchez possibly at 8. Point blank if you think the kid can be "The Franchise", then go get him point blank. If we can leave our team allegiances aside I dont see how this goes above the Raiders as far as draft debauchery.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  8. K-Ro 25

    K-Ro 25 Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    we traded our first and second and three JAG's. We didnt sell the entire draft. Another thing I dont understand is why would a team which think its win now take a QB top ten?:confused: Isnt it the opposite b/c your off the bat admitting you have to give the kid bare minimum 3 years? I love my patsfans.com brethren but sometimes you guys confuse me. A month ago you chastised Jets fans by saying you will never do anything until you get a resolution at QB and when we make a good trade to go get one you say were being impulsive fools. Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abram Elam will set the franchise back? I agree the weapons we have now on offense need to be upgraded. We have Keller and Cotch and good RB's. However if Sanchez pans then we have ten plus years to go get weapons. McNabb had no one of note in his career until Westbrook found his own in yr 5 or 6 of his career.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  9. Metaphors

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Sanchez played all his post-Halloween games in 2008 in California (only once heading north of LA). He will play 6 of his post-Halloween games in 2009 outside in the northeast. They ran Pennington out on a rail because he couldn't attack downfield. Now Jets fans have the pleasure of bookmarking weather.com during their playoff push.

    So while I generally disagree with the OP on the bottom teams, I don't believe the Jets have solved their QB problems with Sanchez. Since their draft strategy was almost entirely getting Sanchez and Greene (which is sure to make Thomas Jones a saint in the locker room), I'm not sure how this draft got them closer to the promised land.
  10. K-Ro 25

    K-Ro 25 Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    If Sanchez pans out then we have a franchise QB. Teams who compete for SB's tend to have these.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2009
  11. eom

    eom Rookie

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    I think grossman's still available.
  12. apple strudel

    apple strudel Banned

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Baby needs a new pair of shoes....
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Welcome to Catch 22, Jetsfan. :)
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Two points: (1) they got TWO thirds in the second trade down (26 -> 41).
    (2) I don't think that it's egregious per se: the pro is you get a better pick the year after, the con is you wait a year to make that pick. It comes down to "would you rather have $X today of $X + Y a year from now?"

    Besides, remember the Pats got Oakland's third in exchange for #92 in 2007 (of course, since it was Oakland, the Pats didn't bother asking for a second ;)).
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  15. Wretch

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    In my opinion the problem with Tannebaum and the Jets is that though they may have drafted good players, like Revis, and Harris, they can't build depth because they trade too many picks to move up. They seem to have subscribed to the we will take fewer, higher picks at select positions versus the Patriots whose goal is to build depth across the roster by trading back and stockpiling 2nd and 3rd round talent.

    I haven't researched this thoroughly but it appears to me that the Jets in recent memory start well and finish badly. This to me is because as players get nicked they don't have quality depth to replace them.

    You can have a great QB, something I am not sure Sanchez will be, and a mediocre team...see the 1980s Dolphins.
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  16. Metaphors

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    You missed my point. Sanchez has played almost all his games in ideal conditions (unless you consider Palo Alto in November "wintry"). He is going to have to play most of his Nov/Dec games outdoors in the Northeast.

    I actually think Sanchez will be a fine pro. Accurate, good game manager, doesn't make mistakes. Much along the lines of...oh, I don't know...Chad Freakin Pennington!

    And don't feel too bad. The Jets don't have any receivers who can separate downfield anyway (built-in Sanchez excuse). So I guess you can rely on the running game. I'm sure Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will be great friends. Maybe Shonn can lend him the extra "n" and "e" (Shon Green looks much better) so Jones will be 40% of the way to "money".

    Have fun storming the castle!
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  17. Synovia

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    Re: Top 6/ Bottom 6 Drafts

    Theres risk, and then theres RISK.

    Big Ben, Manning, Manning II, etc, all started a ton of games in college. They were seen as first round picks before they even started their last year in college. Scouts spent years watching and tracking these guys.

    Sanchez, on the other hand, wasn't even seen as being a first day pick going into his final year. Nobody was watching him, and the scouts had very little time to evaluate him.


    Traditionally, the less college starts a first round pick has had, the worse they've been. There aren't ANY successfull first round pick QBs with less than 25 or so starts in college, and very few with less than 35. Sanchez has 16.


    Contrast that, with QBs drafted in the first round, and have 40+ starts in college and you're looking at basically a list of probowlers.

    The colts taking a risk on Manning is like risking food poisoning by eating chicken. The jets? Like risking food poisoning by eating chicken.... uncooked, that you found in a dumpster on a 100 degree day.
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