Too much KoolAid?

[jah]

THe SIX GAMES (you have it as 5-1)
AFCN you are 3-1, they probably are 2-2
Houston and Denver - you are 2-0, they are probably 1-1
================================
I can see how others might have us losing more games.

Your worst cases are not that. There are few gimmies outside the division (TB and Carolina come to mind).

I have us 11-5; but then, that has my prediction every year since the SB after the 2001 season.

I'm not sure what you were trying to say, but TB and Carolina (in Carolina) could easily beat us. Apologies if that's what you were saying in the first place.

 

[VrabelJr]

No doubt we have a tough schedule. We might lose a few close wins, win a few close ones. Hopefully it gives us the battle hardening a team needs to win a Super Bowl these days.

 

[JMC00]

I'm not sure what you were trying to say, but TB and Carolina (in Carolina) could easily beat us.

Easily?

Panthers game is Week 11 and the Pats will be coming off their bye week. Panthers will be coming off of playing Atlanta Week 9 and playing in San Francisco Week 10.

 

[mgteich]

We disagree. I think that we are at least 4-1 favorites over both these teams.

If we cannot beat TB and CAR, we are indeed in danger of being 10-6 or 9-7.

I'm not sure what you were trying to say, but TB and Carolina (in Carolina) could easily beat us. Apologies if that's what you were saying in the first place.

 

[everlong]

I'd like to think 11 wins is a given but it's really not. They could go 0-4 against the NFCS this year. I think that's worst case, not 2-2. HOU and DEN could be 0-2, too.

I would be shocked if they lose to both Houston and Denver however there is zero chance they go 0-4 vs the AFCS. Carolina and the Bucs simply aren't that good.

 

[mgteich]

Yes 9-7 is unreasonable.

Let's take losses listed; CAR, NYJ, CIN. IMHO, these are the difference between 9 wins and 12 wins.

Personally, I can understand folks expecting us win at CAR and have us at 10-6.

A compilation by two of the most beloved sources on this site, PFF and espnTheMagazine has a very different outlook for the Patriots

Yep, these esteemed experts have the Patriots going 9-7 - including 1-7 on the road - with just a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly they have the Pats starting out 3-0 (without Gronk) and then finishing 6-7 with him.

PFFfffff / bspnTheRag weekly predictions:
09/08 Win at Bills, 27-24
09/12 Win vs Jets, 45-3
09/22 Win vs Bucs, 25-17
09/29 Loss at Falcons, 27-20
10/06 Loss at Bengals, 24-17
10/13 Win vs Saints, 29-16
10/20 Loss at Jets, 13-10
10/27 Win vs Dolphins, 26-16
11/10 Win vs Steelers, 34-14
11/18 Loss at Panthers, 41-34
11/24 Win vs Broncos, 27-15
12/01 Loss at Texans, 30-12
12/08 Win vs Browns, 28-13
12/15 Loss at Dolphins, 23-20
12/22 Loss at Ravens, 16-6
12/29 Win vs Bills, 38-21

 

[everlong]

We disagree. I think that we are at least 4-1 favorites over both these teams.

If we cannot beat TB and CAR, we are indeed in danger of being 10-6 or 9-7.

Exactly. Minus something absurd happening like the Bucs returning two kicks for TDs and the Pats turning it over 5 times we already know what the Bucs are and the Panthers are similar.

 

[dales804]

A compilation by two of the most beloved sources on this site, PFF and espnTheMagazine has a very different outlook for the Patriots

Yep, these esteemed experts have the Patriots going 9-7 - including 1-7 on the road - with just a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly they have the Pats starting out 3-0 (without Gronk) and then finishing 6-7 with him.

PFFfffff / bspnTheRag weekly predictions:
09/08 Win at Bills, 27-24
09/12 Win vs Jets, 45-3
09/22 Win vs Bucs, 25-17
09/29 Loss at Falcons, 27-20
10/06 Loss at Bengals, 24-17
10/13 Win vs Saints, 29-16
10/20 Loss at Jets, 13-10
10/27 Win vs Dolphins, 26-16
11/10 Win vs Steelers, 34-14
11/18 Loss at Panthers, 41-34
11/24 Win vs Broncos, 27-15
12/01 Loss at Texans, 30-12
12/08 Win vs Browns, 28-13
12/15 Loss at Dolphins, 23-20
12/22 Loss at Ravens, 16-6
12/29 Win vs Bills, 38-21

If I'm reading this right, they have one road win and that's week 1. Again, I predict a 12-4 season.

 

[reflexblue]

I think the last time bspn predicted the phins would win the division the pats won or went to the SB. What ever it was it was the opposite of what was predicted, and the boys in bristal look like fools.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

How exactly is Cam Newton going to put up 41 points?

What exactly happened in Houston that makes anyone think they closed a 5 score gap?

Last two years, points scored in the Meadowlands has averaged in the high 40's.......that going to 10?

Atlanta..........?? No

 

[jmt57]

For the sake of comparison here are the regular season losses for the Patriots, with (a) that team's record from the previous season; (b) their record coming into that game, and (c) their final record that year

2012
Team...Prev Yr...Game...Finished
Arizona | 8-8 | 1-0 | 5-11
Ravens | 12-4 | 1-1 | 10-6
Seattle | 7-9 | 3-2 | 11-5
SanFran | 13-3 | 9-3-1 | 11-4-1

2011
Team...Prev Yr...Game...Finished
Buffalo | 4-12 | 2-0 | 6-10
Steelers | 12-4 | 5-2 | 12-4
Giants | 10-6 | 5-2 | 9-7

2010
Team...Prev Yr...Game...Finished
NYJets | 9-7 | 0-1 | 11-5
Browns | 5-11 | 2-5 | 5-11

2009
Team...Prev Yr...Game...Finished
NYJets | 9-7 | 1-0 | 9-7
Denver | 8-8 | 4-0 | 8-8
Colts | 12-4 | 8-0 | 14-2
Saints | 8-8 | 10-0 | 13-3
Miami | 11-5 | 5-6 | 7-9
Houst | 8-8 | 8-7 | 9-7



Of the last 15 regular season losses, about half (7) were to teams that did not have a winning record the previous season. Only six (40%) were to teams that won 10+ games the previous year.

Correctly predicting who will or won't win specific games at this point is at bare minimum very difficult to do. It's fun and helps pass the time until the season gets under way, but it's not going to be particularly accurate.

 

[jmt57]

If I'm reading this right, they have one road win and that's week 1. Again, I predict a 12-4 season.

Yeah, of all the things that stick out (and there are plenty) with that prediction the 1-7 road record may be the biggest head scratcher (though the 13-10 loss to the Jets is right up there too).

For an historical reference the Patriots have not gone 1-7 on the road since Dante Scarnecchia had to take over on an interim basis in **** McPherson's last stand twenty years ago - and something tells me the 2013 version is just a little bit better than that team was.

Crap, even the Jets won three games on the road last year.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Reviewing the projected point totals - they have the Pats scoring only 398 points, which is a 159 point drop from last year. The last time the Pats scored less than 400 points was the infamous 2006 “They wasted a year of Brady’s career” team with leading roles played by an old Corey Dillion, an even older Troy Brown, Chad Jackson, Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Daniel Graham, Jabar Gaffney, and Laurence Maroney.

While I don’t expect the young 2013 offense to score 557 points - I’m certain that they will not finish in a virtual tie with the 2006 band of misfits.

 

[VrabelJr]

A few quick thoughts:

Drawing Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Baltimore all on the road sure does suck.

Cincinnati has been .500 at home the last couple years so maybe we can steal that one.

I don't have much hope for the other three though. Maybe Houston because I think BB can just completely out coach Kubiak over and over again and Wade Phillips is just so stubborn with this stupid scheme.

Cleveland scares me more than Carolina does.

I'm sure we'll have at least one stinker in the away games against Miami and the Jets.

 

[jah]

We disagree. I think that we are at least 4-1 favorites over both these teams.

If we cannot beat TB and CAR, we are indeed in danger of being 10-6 or 9-7.

Don't get me wrong, I have us beating both teams, but it could happen. TB should have a vastly improved pass defense (their biggest weakness last year) with Revis, and Freeman isn't as bad as everyone likes to act. Carolina has been able to put up good offensive production, so that game could be a shootout.

 

[Claremonster]

They were talking this morning about how ESPN the mag picked the Pats to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs with the Fins winning the divsion. They pretty much laughed that off but then turned to how many publications only have them at 10 wins so is it really that far fetched.

They conceeded an at worst 5-1 divisional record. Fair enough I can see them slipping up once. But then they said their aren't 5 more clear cut wins.

Even worst case in my mind lets say they go .500 in the remaining games.

NFCS Panther, Bucs, Saints and Falcons. Really 2-2 is worst case.
AFCN Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens. Again cannot see worse than 2-2Denver and Houston. 1-1 is pretty reasonable.

I just cannot for the life of me minus a 2008 Nightmare at Patriot Place part 2 see worse than 11-5 as the worst case scenario.

In my mind 5-1 divsion, 3-1 vs NFCS, 3-1 vs AFCN and 2-0 vs Houston and Indy........ooops I mean Denver.

ESPN just predicted the Pats to go 1-7 on the road this year.

I guess we will all see if that really happens or not.

 

[BradyFTW!]

ESPN just predicted the Pats to go 1-7 on the road this year.

I guess we will all see if that really happens or not.

Spoiler alert: it won't.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Don't get me wrong, I have us beating both teams, but it could happen. TB should have a vastly improved pass defense (their biggest weakness last year) with Revis, and Freeman isn't as bad as everyone likes to act. Carolina has been able to put up good offensive production, so that game could be a shootout.

Freeman is a league-average starting QB. Maybe a bit worse. Not terrible, but nothing to be frightened about. We have the personnel to disrupt their passing game (assuming that Talib is healthy), and should have a very strong run defense as always.

Meanwhile, who is Revis going to cover? Probably Amendola, so success in the passing game will depend on the ability of Gronk, Vereen, Thompkins, Dobson, and Boyce to get open against their guys. I also expect the running game to be fine. All in all, I'll be pretty surprised if the Bucs beat the Patriots.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Relevant portion highlighted:

It's PFF. They're wrong, pretty much by definition, because they suck beyond all comprehension and are worse than useless. They're literally wrong about everything. No need to pay anymore attention to these idiots.

I will be filing this one away, though, since it's even more evidence that they have no clue what they're talking about.

 

[Claremonster]

Relevant portion highlighted:

It's PFF. They're wrong, pretty much by definition, because they suck beyond all comprehension and are worse than useless. They're literally wrong about everything. No need to pay anymore attention to these idiots.

I will be filing this one away, though, since it's even more evidence that they have no clue what they're talking about.

The Panthers must be a force to be reckoned with!!!!