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Tom Brady's best?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by glm, Jan 24, 2012.

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  1. glm

    glm Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I was reading this article on PFR blog about win expectancy in the playoffs, which they basically looked at how the run game and defense performed and if the QB should have won or loss based on the support around him. They split it up into five different categories: Gimmes, Easy, Neutral, Difficult, and Impossible. (For the record, Tommy has won two impossible games, both in 2002. They were against the Chiefs and the last Dolphin game)

    Article:

    Quarterback post-season records and Simpson’s Paradox » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

    I did this for every game of Tommy's career and ranked the seasons, here they are (First number is actual wins, second is expected wins):

    07 Brady: 16 - 9.72 = 6.28.
    10 Brady: 14 - 7.90 = 6.10.
    11 Brady: 13 - 7.34 = 5.66.
    03 Brady: 14 - 10.01 = 3.99.
    02 Brady: 9 - 5.08 = 3.92.
    04 Brady: 14 - 10.62 = 3.38.
    05 Brady: 10 - 7.07 = 2.93.
    01 Brady: 11 - 8.17 = 2.83.
    09 Brady: 10 - 8.79 = 1.21.
    06 Brady: 12 - 10.92 = 1.08.
     
  2. Satchboogie3

    Satchboogie3 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I'd be very interested to see how this breaks down for Eli Manning in the playoffs.
     
  3. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

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    The main thing I got from all that, is I found the best word to describe the 2011 New England Patriots defense and special teams in correlation to their yards stats. A perfect example of Simpson's Paradox. Thanks.

    As for the rest of it, yeah it's interesting but certainly flawed. Without taking into consideration the supporting cast, and the rest of their casts execution on each particular playoff game, among a million other factors you can't really make those claims.

    Supporting cast is going to play just as big a factor in who's been placed in the toughest situation along with game situation. And then of course the question comes into play as to WHY they were in that situation in the first place?

    Usually it's because those same quarterbacks played bad in the beginning of the game.
     
  4. glm

    glm Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Gimmes: 1
    Easy: 1
    Neutral: 7
    Difficult: 0
    Impossible: 1
    Expected Wins = 5.28
    Actual Wins = 7
    Wins Over Expected = 1.72

    and here's Tommy in the POs:

    Tom Brady:
    Gimmies = 1
    Easy = 3
    Neutral = 13
    Difficult = 2
    Impossible = 2
    Expected Wins = 10.18
    Actual Wins = 16
    Wins Over Expected = 5.82
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2012
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