Tom Brady was among league's worst in 'bad passes' last season

[Kontradiction]

I think people are being a little defensive about this stat. Reading the article, that tries to dig deeper, they guess that the main cause of his high number of bad passes was the inability to connect down field the past couple of years. This isn't some big secret. His completion percentage of passes thrown downfield have been dreadful the past few years. We tend to think its because of the lack of downfield weapons but hopefully that is corrected with the additions of Lloyd, Gaffney and Stallworth.

Eh, this forum tends to get defensive any time something negative is associated with #12 in the media, even though these stats don't have a whole lot of context to them.

 

[Joker]

Brady passed so poorly on a team with no defense to speak of that the Patriots went all the way to the Super Bowl...they didn't get there by running the ball...nice stats, though

 

[Nunchucks]

I thought Brady tried to force a lot of balls last year, so I am not really surprised by the findings.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm calling BS first... Brady's bread and butter is accuracy and good decision making. Knowing how this offense is predicated on post snap reads and precision route running and timing, 90% of what whomever compiled those stats thinks they saw was on the receiver. Otherwise Bill wouldn't be paying him $18M per - he'd be trading his ass. Brady regularly puts the ball where it has to be and it's on the receiver to be there or close enough to make a play (which when it works may look like a great play on his part when in fact it was one he had to make of necessity - see Brady's critique of one of Lloyd's early diving camp catches where he needed to flatten his route so a circus catch wasn't required...).

While I do think that the key number in that stat is "611," i.e., the number of passes he threw (more than all but Brees and Stafford), I don't think we can just dismiss this as bull. His elbow was hurting last season and he had some noteworthy accuracy issues up to the very end, including a couple of throws in the SB that need not be rehashed here. Also, he was working with a "pretty good" cadre of receivers. In the end, he was MVP, whatever these numbers say.

I'd be far more interested in a "vertical" comparison than a "horizontal" comparison here, i.e., comparing Brady to Brady over the years by this measure and seeing if there has been any change. That's more relevant than comparing QB's to each other when they are working in very different systems.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I was kind of surprised about this.

Does anybody know if this number is kept over time? Can we compare "Brady to Brady" over a few seasons? QB's are throwing different kinds of passes to different types of receivers in different systems, so comparing "QB to QB" is not necessarily enlightening.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I thought Brady tried to force a lot of balls last year, so I am not really surprised by the findings.

The difference between elite QB's and jags is the ability to force throws into coverage. That is one reason their teams win. Of course, part of the equation that deals with willingness to make those throws is the expectation that you have a target who will either make a play on that ball or insure no one else can. Brady hasn't had a lot of receivers who can do that consistently. Welker is one. Gronk and Hernandez appear to be emerging. Moss was that guy for about 12 weeks in one season. Lloyd presents as a guy with that skillset. Guys who consistently make the tough catches in coverage. Everyone can catch the ball when they're wide open, although some receivers still manage to struggle with focus even in that situation. They've been doing a lot of distraction drills in camp and Stallworth seems to struggle with those.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

While I do think that the key number in that stat is "611," i.e., the number of passes he threw (more than all but Brees and Stafford), I don't think we can just dismiss this as bull. His elbow was hurting last season and he had some noteworthy accuracy issues up to the very end, including a couple of throws in the SB that need not be rehashed here. Also, he was working with a "pretty good" cadre of receivers. In the end, he was MVP, whatever these numbers say.

I'd be far more interested in a "vertical" comparison than a "horizontal" comparison here, i.e., comparing Brady to Brady over the years by this measure and seeing if there has been any change. That's more relevant than comparing QB's to each other when they are working in very different systems.

No, I think we can dismiss this as bull pretty handily. And if you're talking about the placement of the Welker throw, while ultimately a tough one on the receiver we have not established that the throw in and of itself was bad or misplaced (the closing safety theory). Obviously they weren't quite on the same page which made the catch more difficult (although makable for Welker), but that isn't what constitutes a bad throw or decision.

 

[Kontradiction]

Brady had 5 sub 60% completion games. He also had 11 above his season average 65.6% including 4 over 70%. They were scattered throughout so likely had a lot to do with situations (including with his receivers) and matchups...as opposed to his elbow.

New York Giants at New England Patriots - November 6th, 2011 - Pro-Football-Reference.com

As you can see, I also noted those situations. However, the elbow tendonitis cannot be ignored, particularly when quite a few slow starts were due to drives stalling primarily through the passing game, then going on a roll after the first few offensive possessions of the game. Again, opponent, lack of deep threat, etc. should all be considered, but so should the elbow as drives stalling early in the game followed by the offense going on a roll (Indy?), particularly through the air, would be indicative of a hurting quarterback that needed a couple of drives to work the kinks out.

 

[Steve102]

This is horrific. So much for the GOAT thing. Maybe we can trade him for Sanchez? Perhaps there's some third stringer in Canada who can run this offense. Think there's another Kurt Warner type bagging groceries down at Stop and Shop? I am so glad we have access to the interwebs for articles like this. Makes me feel so much better knowing TB12 is really Ryan Leaf in disguise. 1-15 here we come. The New England Patriots are on the clock.

Ok, serious now. Too many variables for me to consider this a problem at this point. Doesn't mean I won't be "aware" of it now, either.

 

[Buchanty]

As you can see, I also noted those situations. However, the elbow tendonitis cannot be ignored, particularly when quite a few slow starts were due to drives stalling primarily through the passing game, then going on a roll after the first few offensive possessions of the game. Again, opponent, lack of deep threat, etc. should all be considered, but so should the elbow as drives stalling early in the game followed by the offense going on a roll (Indy?), particularly through the air, would be indicative of a hurting quarterback that needed a couple of drives to work the kinks out.

I agree the tendonitis has to have been a factor. There was an obvious pattern to last year's games where the offense would come out slow and then pick up in the 2nd quarter, which is consistent with that type of injury.

The only question mark in the stat is the subjective determination of whether the incompletion was due to QB/receiver miscommunication. Only 9 out of the total 116 (ie 8%) were deemed miscommunications. Since there is no definition of a miscommunication we cant even determine whether a receiver running a wrong route is included.

It would be interesting to see the numbers of miscommunications for the other QBs so we could see whether 8% was an outlier or not.

Still it bears consideration if the tendonitis reappears. If it doesn't then this becomes a transitory observation until the definition and other stats are provided for comparison.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

As you can see, I also noted those situations. However, the elbow tendonitis cannot be ignored, particularly when quite a few slow starts were due to drives stalling primarily through the passing game, then going on a roll after the first few offensive possessions of the game. Again, opponent, lack of deep threat, etc. should all be considered, but so should the elbow as drives stalling early in the game followed by the offense going on a roll (Indy?), particularly through the air, would be indicative of a hurting quarterback that needed a couple of drives to work the kinks out.

Not necessarily. Sometimes the offense on the whole is working the kinks out vs. coverage and sometimes receivers don't take to the field as focused as they could be and sometimes backs don't produce until the get some consistent work and sometimes OL's struggle with protections and...

Like most teams this one generally starts a game off fairly scripted and tests the defense to establish what their game plan is before adapting and adjusting. Other times you get exactly what you saw on film and expected and you're ready to take advantage of it until or unless the opponent adapts and adjusts.

The QB is always an easy target. Just not nearly as legit a one here by and large.

 

[DarrylS]

Let's see:

31st in the league in yards allowed
No pass rush
No one to stretch the field
No running game

and now this, how did we get to the Superbowl???

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Putting the questions of methodology aside (which I question myself), the article goes on to really explain away alot of what most of us already know.

A disproportionately high % of those "bad" passes were on deep balls outside. We all know that we really didn't have legitimate option on that part of the field, but still had to have a few heaves and chucks in that direction every game to "attempt" to keep the defense honest. Unfortunately for us, it was used a few times as equivalent of having a back run into the line a few times to set up other plays.

You can't really totally fault Brady for every one of those passes. I remember SO many times I cringed last season, when Brady launched one downfield, not because I thought anything bad about him, I just knew there would be no one on other end of it. Don't get me wrong, he threw his share of duds too, but there is really just TOO many factor that go into a stat like this to draw any meaningful conclusions from it.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Do they take into account
1) throwaways
2) intentionally throwing to the ground in the area of a receiver
3) bad route patterns


I'm sure some are his, no doubt. The research means nothing though. Maybe Brady's less willing to force a ball and will throw it away than some others...nothing wrong with that.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Brady is more conditioned than most QB's to throw to where the defenders are not and is not as likely as some to try and thread the needle - hence the low interception level but relatively high "bad passes" ratio. Some times a "bad pass" is a good decision.

Edit: What FirstAndGoal said...

 

[goheels22002]

I think this is a crock. How can you have guys like Philip Rivers and Josh Freeman ahead of Brady? Rivers threw 20 interceptions and Freeman threw 22 in fewer attempts than Brady (12 interceptions), but they are more accurate? (More to this rant below.)

Here’s a breakdown of how Brady did according to the geniuses at Stats, Inc.:

Overthrown passes: 36 of 611
Underthrown passes: 26
Wide passes: 45
Total bad passes: 107, or 17.5 percent
(It's worth noting here that Brady completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns. Keep that in perspective while reading.)

Nine other passes not included in those figures were plays labeled as wide receiver-quarterback miscommunications. That figure seems really low, but at least a few blatantly obvious offenses were removed from the equation.

Here is how he stacks up against the top 31 passers from last season:

1. Drew Brees (61 bad passes/657 attempts) 9.3 percent
2. Tony Romo (68/522) 12.3 percent
3. Philip Rivers (74/582) 12.7 percent
4. Colt McCoy (61/463) 13.2 percent
5. Josh Freeman (74/551) 13.4 percent
6. Kyle Orton (34/252) 13.5 percent
7. Kevin Kolb (35/253) 13.8 percent
7. Eli Manning (81/589) 13.8 percent
9. Aaron Rodgers (70/502) 13.9 percent
10. Matt Ryan (80/566) 14.1 percent
11. Alex Smith (64/445) 14.4 percent
12. Matthew Stafford (97/663) 14.6 percent
12. Ben Roethlisberger (75/513) 14.6 percent
14. Matt Hasselbeck (76/518) 14.7 percent
14. Tarvaris Jackson (66/450) 14.7 percent
16. Andy Dalton (78/516) 15.1 percent
17. Mike Vick (65/423) 15.4 percent
18. Rex Grossman (72/458) 15.7 percent
19. Matt Moore (55/347) 15.9 percent
20. Matt Schaub (47/292) 16.1 percent
21. Tom Brady (107/611) 17.5 percent
21. Jay Cutler (55/314) 17.5 percent
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick (101/569) 17.8 percent
23. Mark Sanchez (97/543) 17.9 percent
23. Christian Ponder (52/291) 17.9 percent
25. Joe Flacco (100/542) 18.5 percent
26. Cam Newton (101/517) 19.5 percent
27. Sam Bradford (70/357) 19.6 percent
28. John Skelton (62/275) 22.5 percent
29. Blaine Gabbert (94/413) 22.8 percent
30. Tim Tebow (71/271) 26.2 percent
31. Carson Palmer (101/328) 30.8 percent

Unfortunately we don’t have the data necessary to place each of those passes in context, so it’s hard to determine what this all means, if anything at all. Did a receiver run the wrong route? Did he face pressure on any of these plays? How many of the passes were shots down the field? How did the numbers change from previous years?"

These Stats, Inc. guys should step up, identify themselves and give us a definition of "Overthrown" "underthrown" and "Wide." Anonymity is unacceptable.

My first question is about throw-aways. Do these stats take into account coverage or pressure throw-aways? Brady is among the best ever at getting rid of the ball rather than taking a sack or throwing an interception.

Are other QBs being given credit for firing into traffic - maybe on-target but very dangerous even if not intercepted? If so, it's like criticizing a pitcher for throwing balls. Strikeouts come on balls, home runs come on strikes.

How do these guys define"wide" and "underthrows?" Brady throws the ball only where his receiver can catch it. If the receiver can't get there, is that Brady's fault? His "underthrows" are most often into the ground where only the receiver can get to it which is why Welker, and Gronk are particularly skilled. Branch is fantastic at hauling in wide throws that only he can get to. An incompletion is better than a pick.

Busted plays on deep balls is the other obvious one. Brady turns it loose deep a lot while a guy is coming out a break. If the receiver stumbles or gets redirected by the DB, the ball falls harmlessly to the ground. Inaccurate? No.

 

[Kontradiction]

Not necessarily. Sometimes the offense on the whole is working the kinks out vs. coverage and sometimes receivers don't take to the field as focused as they could be and sometimes backs don't produce until the get some consistent work and sometimes OL's struggle with protections and...

Like most teams this one generally starts a game off fairly scripted and tests the defense to establish what their game plan is before adapting and adjusting. Other times you get exactly what you saw on film and expected and you're ready to take advantage of it until or unless the opponent adapts and adjusts.

The QB is always an easy target. Just not nearly as legit a one here by and large.

Except there was quite a few of those games where we just went about and executed the game plan anyway down the stretch, IE, played our game. How else do you explain the Indy game where their corners were lining up ten yards away from our receivers from the get-go with our offense stalling time and time again at the beginning of the game, only to get into a potent rhythm making the same throws on the same routes to the same targeted receivers later on? In all, everything should be considered when looking at this article. Quality of opponent, it's ability to execute it's gameplan against our offense, lack of deep/intermediate threat, and noted elbow tendonitis which appeared to be effecting Brady early on in games.

 

[TriplecHamp]

A lot of those passes weren't his fault. How many of those passes were to Ochocinco where Ocho should have been where Brady threw it to and wasn't?That skews the data a bit. Anyone know how many times Ocho was targeted last year? I bet 90% of the targets that weren't completions are considered towards Stats, Inc.'s bad pass total and most, if not all were not Brady's fault.

This, It wasn't just ocho though, anytime a receiver wasn't where he was supposed to be or just not on the same page as Brady the pass would be completely off the mark because nobody was there to catch it. Its what happens when you have a timing based offense where both quaterback and receiver have to be on the exact same page.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Let's see:

31st in the league in yards allowed
No pass rush
No one to stretch the field
No running game

and now this, how did we get to the Superbowl???

It's the patsfans.com version of the Peyton Ballwashing Syndrome.

patsfans.com always hated when indictment of someone else was forwarded for failure and singular praise was forwarded for success when it comes to Manning.

patsfans.com just isn't quite as good at it.

This debate mirrors the concept of striking out in baseball.

Who cares if an incompletion was "good" or "bad"? Completions are infinitely more important.

What this does indicate is the potential for extra low hanging fruit for increased proficiency in the passing game.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Aaron Rodgers just put together the best season in NFL history, for efficiency, and he is ranked 9th. Move on folks, nothing to see here.