Today's Huddle: Spotlighting Brady's Passing #'s Down Inside the Red Zone

[Ian]

Put this together last night. Has some numbers that you might find interesting:

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/20...hursday-news-notes-focusing-red-zone-numbers/

 

[Ian]

Here are some of those numbers:

---
Overall down in the red zone during the regular season in 2013 Brady finished 42-of-83 (51%) with 20 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. In the postseason in their two games he was just 4-of-9 (44%) with only one touchdown.

Taking a closer look, when it came to throwing the football, as the team begins creeping closer to the goal line the percentages dropped quite a bit.

Here’s a breakdown:

Inside the 20yd line down to the 16:
14-of-22 (64%) 5 TDs, 1 INT

From the 15yd line down to the 11:
10-of-21 (48%) 3 TDs, 1 INT

From the 10yd line down to the 6:
9-of-18 (50%) 5 TD, 1 INT

From the 5yd line down to the 2:
6-of-15 (40%) 5 TD

At the 1yd line:
3-of-7 (43%) 2 TD
--
There are also some additional rushing stats in here regarding this topic as well:

http://www.patsfans.com/ian/blog/20...hursday-news-notes-focusing-red-zone-numbers/

 

[Kontradiction]

3 INT's in the red zone in one season? I remember the first game against the Jets in 2011, Brady threw the second red zone INT of his career. In 2013, he had three. Wow. Really speaks to the level of the quality of targets he had down there that Brady had to start forcing some throws.

 

[supafly]

3 INT's in the red zone in one season? I remember the first game against the Jets in 2011, Brady threw the second red zone INT of his career. In 2013, he had three. Wow. Really speaks to the level of the quality of targets he had down there that Brady had to start forcing some throws.

I was just going to comment on that matter as well, Kontra. I did not realize that he had thrown 3 INTs in the red zone this year either.

As you said, the lack of quality at the WR position obviously had a great deal to do with this. Hopefully, that has been improved upon, and will continue to be as the year moves forward.

The postseason stats also jump out at you as well, since that has been one of our postseason areas of failure lately.

 

[supafly]

Really, it's going to come down to a healthy Gronkowski.

The development of LaFell will also be important, as will the development of the 2nd year group--but this really all comes down to one player in my opinion. That's what really makes the difference.

 

[makoute]

3 INT's in the red zone in one season? I remember the first game against the Jets in 2011, Brady threw the second red zone INT of his career. In 2013, he had three. Wow. Really speaks to the level of the quality of targets he had down there that Brady had to start forcing some throws.

Or maybe the Brady from back then wouldn't force the throw?

 

[SalemPats]

The reason for the red-zone TD drop is not because of Brady. It's because of the injuries and lack of weapons. In my opinion we lost about 15 TDs in Hernandez/Gronk who are machines in the red-zone. Wes is usually good for 6. Edelman did a great job, but we lacked phsyicality. Hopefully with Gronk back, Lafell as a big body guy we can be dominant again.

Also take a look at the amount of rushing TDs and our numbers with Gronk in the lineup. Next year we will again be one of the most efficient red zone teams in the league

 

[Kontradiction]

Or maybe the Brady from back then wouldn't force the throw?

The Brady from back then usually didn't have to.

 

[supafly]

Yeah, I truly see no difference in the Brady "from back then" in terms of a suggestion that he now makes poorer decisions. I think if anything, a strong argument could be made that he actually has grown even more as a cerebral passer--with the only slight knock that he may have lost some arm strength.

As many have pointed out, the lack of adequate receiving options certainly had a lot to do with this, as well as a meshing of the interior struggles of the offensive line.

 

[DarrylS]

Lack of tight end play has a lot to do with it.. in 2011 the TE production was 169 receptions, 24 TD's... in 2013 the TE production was 53 receptions and 5 TD's... significant drop off.

 

[Mack Herron]

Really, it's going to come down to a healthy Gronkowski.

This is the main reason we need another legitimate target at TE.

 

[PatsFan37]

Would you be surprised if Belichick lined up Chandler Jones as a red-zone TE?
(I can just hear Felger & Mazz screeching)

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Would you be surprised if Belichick lined up Chandler Jones as a red-zone TE?
(I can just hear Felger & Mazz screeching)

If he's as good/durable as Vrable, I'd welcome it.

 

[Mack Herron]

Would you be surprised if Belichick lined up Chandler Jones as a red-zone TE?
(I can just hear Felger & Mazz screeching)

I would. Actually, Collins was lining up there in OTAs, which makes more sense to me. But he plays too many snaps on D to add a significant role on offense. I doubt he would make more than cameo red zone appearances, to say nothing about the rest of the field.

 

[supafly]

I would. Actually, Collins was lining up there in OTAs, which makes more sense to me. But he plays too many snaps on D to add a significant role on offense. I doubt he would make more than cameo red zone appearances, to say nothing about the rest of the field.

The worry wart in me always immediately goes back to Seymour hurting his knee, so I'd much rather see a "lesser" player contributing on offense. How about a guy like Nate Ebner, Chung, etc playing an H-back role instead?

What the hell does that even say about me, that I don't think of the Vrabel-esque TE touchdown grabs, and immediately go to Seymour hurting his knee? Pathetic, I tell ya--just pathetic.....

 

[PatFanCraig]

Without a red zone target that's expected. In today's NFL you need size and speed at wr. Outside the #'s can beat great coverage but you need the passer and pass catchers with the talents to exploit it. All successful red zone qbs has the pass catchers to exploit it.

 

[Mack Herron]

The worry wart in me always immediately goes back to Seymour hurting his knee, so I'd much rather see a "lesser" player contributing on offense. How about a guy like Nate Ebner, Chung, etc playing an H-back role instead?

What the hell does that even say about me, that I don't think of the Vrabel-esque TE touchdown grabs, and immediately go to Seymour hurting his knee? Pathetic, I tell ya--just pathetic.....

I'm sure you have a lot of company in these parts in recalling the role of injuries that stood in the way of another trip to the top of the mount. Plus, there is precious little depth behind Collins. But there is little reason to think that Ebner or Chung would present anything of an offensive weapon. My fear is that at some point Gronk goes down and we are forced to rely on Hooman and maybe Devlin or something from the NFL dumpster to play TE.

 

[goheels22002]

I would. Actually, Collins was lining up there in OTAs, which makes more sense to me. But he plays too many snaps on D to add a significant role on offense. I doubt he would make more than cameo red zone appearances, to say nothing about the rest of the field.

The Pats ought to line Revis up in the slot and Brady should try to connect with the opponent's safety. Revis will pick him off.

 

[Deus Irae]

Two huge losses were Welker (quick open) and Gronk (huge target). Those are crucial losses when you're in tight spaces. Hell, they'd matter even in sandlot football.

 

[Triumph]

One of the INTS was vs Carolina.

More or less a hail mary to Gronk with 3 seconds left in the game.