To me: It's Willis

[patchick]

As I recall, the lightest LB prospect BB has acquired in the past couple years was Monty Beisel at 238, next comes UDFA Cory Mays at 245.

...

You are welcome to draft 260 lb. Guards, 175 lb. Safeties, or 225 lb. Linebackers if you think they can get the job done, I'll stick to my weight/height prejudices.

Pssst...Eric Alexander came out of school at 223 lbs! Not that his career stands as a glowing testament to undersized LBs.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Pssst...Eric Alexander came out of school at 223 lbs! Not that his career stands as a glowing testament to undersized LBs.

He was an UDFA reco from BB's bud Nick Saban. He was brought in as a ST Safety player. He got his one and only start after the Pats lost ther eighth ranked Safety fourth and sixth CBs, and three of the four starting LBs were sick as dogs. He's a scrub and will remain a ST contributor ONLY.

 

[mcbee]

I have been dancing around with who the Patriots should pick in the first round.

.................

Now tell me where I am wrong. But, be gentle.

Huddlereport has him as a 4th rounder. Or maybe it was a 3rd.

Just saying. No one is a sure thing.

 

[patchick]

He was an UDFA reco from BB's bud Nick Saban. He was brought in as a ST Safety player. He got his one and only start after the Pats lost ther eighth ranked Safety fourth and sixth CBs, and three of the four starting LBs were sick as dogs. He's a scrub and will remain a ST contributor ONLY.

You betcha on the scrub status, I understand that he's primarily a special-teams guy. But since Box asked about lightweight LBs...Alexander played a little safety early in his LSU career but LB his last two years, and has been listed exclusively at LB with the Pats. And he's up to 240 lbs. now!

 

[Seneschal2]

You betcha on the scrub status, I understand that he's primarily a special-teams guy. But since Box asked about lightweight LBs...Alexander played a little safety early in his LSU career but LB his last two years, and has been listed exclusively at LB with the Pats. And he's up to 240 lbs. now!

Very accurate.

It seems to me there are several opinions on the LB position:

• ILB is a priority need
• BB won't draft a LB in round one because he never has
• Willis may be out of reach
• After Willis, Siler and Harris are early options (rounds 1-3)
• The only two who match the 'perfect sized' LBs mold are Bradley and DeOssie (rounds 2-4)
• Poz is not seriously considered on this board

Has anyone thought about weeding out these ILB prospects, and deciding who fits best, what our options are, so we have a better feel for what BB may do? Here's a clue:

1. Will Willis make it to #24?
2. Would we take Siler or Harris at #28? If not, will they last till our 3rd round pick?
3. Would we take Bradley or DeOssie with our 3rd, because they won't last till round four?
4. Etc.

We have some work to do -- so let's get started please...

 

[PATSNUTme]

Very accurate.

It seems to me there are several opinions on the LB position:

• ILB is a priority need
• BB won't draft a LB in round one because he never has
• Willis may be out of reach
• After Willis, Siler and Harris are early options (rounds 1-3)
• The only two who match the 'perfect sized' LBs mold are Bradley and DeOssie (rounds 2-4)
• Poz is not seriously considered on this board

Has anyone thought about weeding out these ILB prospects, and deciding who fits best, what our options are, so we have a better feel for what BB may do? Here's a clue:

1. Will Willis make it to #24?
2. Would we take Siler or Harris at #28? If not, will they last till our 3rd round pick?
3. Would we take Bradley or DeOssie with our 3rd, because they won't last till round four?
4. Etc.

We have some work to do -- so let's get started please...

I do take Pos seriously. I'm still firmly a Willis guy but if he is gone or the Patriots like Pos better, I'm Ok with that.

He has played both the 3-4 and 4-3inside an out. He seems to have the Patriots type player attributes.

 

[patchick]

Has anyone thought about weeding out these ILB prospects, and deciding who fits best, what our options are, so we have a better feel for what BB may do? Here's a clue:

1. Will Willis make it to #24?
2. Would we take Siler or Harris at #28? If not, will they last till our 3rd round pick?
3. Would we take Bradley or DeOssie with our 3rd, because they won't last till round four?
4. Etc.

It's a puzzler all right. All the prospects keep flip-flopping in my mental ranking. (Right now Poz is back on the radar, while I'm worrying that Harris has short arms.) But I'll take my best stab at your list:

"Will Willis make it to #24?" The more I look at the draft order, the better the chances look. Carolina and Pittsburgh seem like the likeliest suitors above 24, but at 14 & 15 there's a good chance they find better value elsewhere. But...the Jets and Eagles are lurking right behind with ILB needs, and could easily try to slide up a couple of spots.

"Would we take Siler or Harris at #28?" I'm thinking no. Given that the Pats hate having big gaps in their draft, I'd bet they work hard to trade down. Prediction: one of their 1sts for a 2nd this year and next. Alternate prediction, assuming Willis is gone and no attractive trade options: #24 Darrelle Revis, #28 Poz.

"Would we take Bradley or DeOssie with our 3rd, because they won't last till round four?" Heck yeah! :rocker:

 

[Handel]

Willis would be awesome but there is no way he will be there at # 24.

 

[BelichickFan]

Willis would be awesome but there is no way he will be there at # 24.

Why people say that, I have no idea. It's probably less than 50-50 he's there but this isn't the next great LB, he very well could be there.

Poz and Willis are really the only LB options in the first round and have very close to the same size. Everyone says Poz is small but his listed weight is only 3 pounds less than Willis. Being an inch shorter, Poz may have a little less size potential.

I'm on record as saying I'll believe it when I see them draft a LB in round one - and I stand behind that - not that I don't think they would but I'll have to see it before I believe it. However if we don't sign a vet FA LB before the draft (other than Thomas), I'll see it as more likely. The fact that Willis and Poz both bring seriously good intangibles does raise my eyebrow a little.

 

[Handel]

Because in most of the mocks I read, he is picked before #15

 

[BelichickFan]

Because in most of the mocks I read, he is picked before #15

And there's perfectly good looking ones in which he's there at #24.

Bottom line, LB is to this year as WR was to last year. Chad Jackson and the kid who went to Pittsburgh were hotter commodities than they should have been because is was a sh!tty year for WR. Same thing this year at LB - of course, the WR still went late #1 and early #2 last year. The ONLY reason Willis is less than 50-50 to be there is because he's probably the first LB to go so as soon as a team really wants a LB he might go. On talent compared to the rest of the draft ? He's a late #1 IMO.

 

[patchick]

And there's perfectly good looking ones in which he's there at #24.

Bottom line, LB is 2o this year as WR was to last year. Chad Jackson and the kid who went to Pittsburgh were hotter commodities than they should have been because is was a sh!tty year for WR. Same thing this year at LB - of course, the WR still went late #1 and early #2 last year. The ONLY reason Willis is less than 50-50 to be there is because he's probably the first LB to go so as soon as a team really wants a LB he might go. On talent compared to the rest of the draft ? He's a late #1 IMO.

Interesting comparison. That's the sort of situation where mocks as a group may be predictably, reliably skewed. The mock-draft maker sees Carolina really needs an LB and Willis is the top LB available, so in he goes. But out in the real world Carolina says to heck with that, I'm not spending #14 on anything less than a special player and grabs somebody like a Carriker.

 

[JackPMiller]

I got Willis going to Buffalo at #12 in round 1.

 

[Handel]

I got Willis going to Buffalo at #12 in round 1.

Indeed. I see Willis going either to SF, Buffalo or Carolina.

 

[ayjackson]

Denver will consider strongly Willis if he's available at 21. They're concerned about the longevity of Al Wilson. There have been a lot of speculation that he could be off to Detroit for the 34th pick in the draft.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Pssst...Eric Alexander came out of school at 223 lbs! Not that his career stands as a glowing testament to undersized LBs.

Pssst...I confined my remarks to acquisitions in the last two years. Thanks for helping note Alexander has been listed at 240 since he first went on the Pats' roster.

Pony: Was BB saying Sims could play in any system before or after the draft? (And should we take him at face value if so many here believe he'll plant false leads for teams trying to guess his intentions?) Does the report that BB "considered" a move up for Vilma carry the weight you give it if he didn't move up? You cite data that may indicate a willingness to take a smaller linebacker, but analytically, this data doesn't point to a tendency, other than to highlight that the decision process doesn't solely hinge on what a player is today - note patchick's reference to Alexander.

Zach Thomas doesn't play full time in a base 3-4, Miami appeared to play as much if not more in a 4-3 under Saban because he didn't have the personnel. Zach was considered an anomoly at MLB, try to pick out the next Zach Thomas who is going to excel despite size concerns and you're going to sift through a lot of good college players who can't make the jump. If BB wants to play more of a Wade Phillips 3-4 where a Donnie Edwards does okay then by all means grab the coverage guys. Until BB does draft an Ernie Sims or Jonathan Vilma in round one and plug them into his 3-4 at ILB, please don't use his apparent interest in them as the defining standard for what he actually has done - acquire vets in FA and take 2nd day/UDFA kids and try to develop them. Those players fit a fairly narrowly defined physical stereotype, hence my prejudice.

 

[PonyExpress]

Pssst...I confined my remarks to acquisitions in the last two years. Thanks for helping note Alexander has been listed at 240 since he first went on the Pats' roster.

Pony: Was BB saying Sims could play in any system before or after the draft? (And should we take him at face value if so many here believe he'll plant false leads for teams trying to guess his intentions?) Does the report that BB "considered" a move up for Vilma carry the weight you give it if he didn't move up? You cite data that may indicate a willingness to take a smaller linebacker, but analytically, this data doesn't point to a tendency, other than to highlight that the decision process doesn't solely hinge on what a player is today - note patchick's reference to Alexander.

Zach Thomas doesn't play full time in a base 3-4, Miami appeared to play as much if not more in a 4-3 under Saban because he didn't have the personnel. Zach was considered an anomoly at MLB, try to pick out the next Zach Thomas who is going to excel despite size concerns and you're going to sift through a lot of good college players who can't make the jump. If BB wants to play more of a Wade Phillips 3-4 where a Donnie Edwards does okay then by all means grab the coverage guys. Until BB does draft an Ernie Sims or Jonathan Vilma in round one and plug them into his 3-4 at ILB, please don't use his apparent interest in them as the defining standard for what he actually has done - acquire vets in FA and take 2nd day/UDFA kids and try to develop them. Those players fit a fairly narrowly defined physical stereotype, hence my prejudice.

Those are very good counterarguments. I can't disagree with your logic.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Those are very good counterarguments. I can't disagree with your logic.

Good, now you can explain it to me.

 

[cstjohn17]

With some players rising into the top 20 Staley, Meachem, Carriker and maybe Nelson there is a better chance Willis drops. Not a great chance but still better than before.