Timing on Brady's next contract

[PatsFanSince74]

Big Ben is signed through the 2015 season.
Brady through the 2010 season.
Eli and Rivers through the 2009 season.

DOB
Brady - 8/3/77
Rivers - 12/8/81
Eli - 1/3/81

I think that if Brady signs an extension in 2009 it would have to take into account
1.) that the Patriots are assuming two years of the injury risk factor
2.) that he is 3 years older than Eli and 4 years older than Rivers.
3.) that he is coming off a season-ending injury. The other two are not.
4.) that it will probably be cheaper to tag Brady in 2011 than it will be to tag Rivers or Eli in 2010

As usual, helpful and insightful, Miguel. Thank you.

Brady would be 33 YO when he took his first snap under a new contract in September, 2010, so a five year contract would have him start year five at the age of 38.

The average retirement age (defined as their age at the beginning of their last season) of the 17 SB Era HOF QB's is 37.4 (median 38.0). The oldest was Moon at 42. Here are the others, with the age at which they began their last season:

Aikman, 34
Bradsahw, 35
Dawson, 40
Elway, 38
Fouts, 36
Bob Griese, 35
Jurgensen, 40
Kelly, 36
Marino, 38
Montana, 38
Namath, 34
Starr, 37
Staubach, 37
Tarkenton, 38
Unitas, 40
Young, 38

TB has said that he wants to play another ten years; how we all hope that he does! But, history suggests that there are just too many unknowns when it comes to the health and productivity of an NFL QB to know for sure how long he will play and at what level.

Elway is the gold standard, going out on top with two of his greatest seasons at the ages of 37 and 38! Steve Young was 13--5 as a starter in his last two seasons; Staubach was 22--9; Joe was 17--8. Others have not done so well as they played their final seasons.

So, you're right to point out the uncertainties that the Pats will be weighing. I don't see them taking a strategy that would include franchising him though.

 

[Jimke]

I'm actually not so sure that he will retire a Patriot. Not that I think he won't, but if Belichick ever decides that it would benefit the team to go in another direction, and Brady didn't want to retire, I think Belichick's track record has proven that he would trade him/let him go. I don't think it'll happen, and if it did it would be my saddest day as a Pats fan no question, but I'd still be a Pats fan afterward.

I'm not so sure either that Brady will retire as a Patriot. He has a brand new wife and a multi-million dollar home under construction out in your
area. I think he may ask the Patriots to arrange a trade after the 2010
season to a California team. This way Tom and Gi could split their time
between California and Costa Rica. Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft would
probably agree to a trade in light of the services Tom has rendered.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I'm not so sure either that Brady will retire as a Patriot. He has a brand new wife and a multi-million dollar home under construction out in your
area. I think he may ask the Patriots to arrange a trade after the 2010
season to a California team. This way Tom and Gi could split their time
between California and Costa Rica. Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft would
probably agree to a trade in light of the services Tom has rendered.

Egh, that would suck. Who would they play for though? The 49ers are the only possibility out here, and why would someone who actually cares about winning go from the Pats to the 49ers? Nah, not too worried about that, even though Brady did grow up a 49ers fan.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm not so sure either that Brady will retire as a Patriot. He has a brand new wife and a multi-million dollar home under construction out in your
area. I think he may ask the Patriots to arrange a trade after the 2010
season to a California team. This way Tom and Gi could split their time
between California and Costa Rica. Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft would
probably agree to a trade in light of the services Tom has rendered.

I disagree, but not 100%. I think (and we are all just saying what we "think" out here as none of us "knows" anything) that Brady's default position is and will be to end his career as a Patriot.

However, if, for whatever reason, the Pats and TB can't come to a meeting of the minds and wallets, then I do agree that there are things in his personal life that might make the left coast attractive: he grew up there; he and Gisele seem to want to build their homebase there; his son lives there with his mother. And, the last time I checked, the niners aren't the only team on the West Coast. I can't imagine that any amount of money would be enough to make him want to play for Al Davis, but injuries or big bucks could make the Chargers or Seahawks attractive. And, if any of the perennial rumors are true that a distressed franchise might move to LA, what better way to build instant fan interest than for Brentwood Brady to be its starting QB?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Nobody knows but we all have opinions.

IMHO based on 9 years of actually paying attention to not only what he says but what he's already done and how he conducts himself, Brady will retire here. Legacy matters, and this is his dynasty as much as Krafts or BB's. He's never held them up, even with three rings in hand when negotiations opened at the teams request on his last extension. The one where he agreed to take what is turning out to be $4M per less per than the then ringless Manning took the year before on a deal that unless redone or voided will pay Peyton $15M at age 37 (although it will almost certainly be redone because he is on record as wanting to play until at least 39 and if the cap is reinstated Indy will need room).

Not that the backend salaries on deals longer than 5 years matter either since they aren't guaranteed even implicitly after the first 4...and I think Tom will get at least another 6 years in a new extension while Manning will as well. But I don't think it happens for either of them this season because of the CBA uncertainty and their dead cap. They're not waiting to see how Tom does. It they could do a deal comfortably or sensibly they'd have done it by now. Ditto Peyton. Eli might be the one who ends up having to wait while they see what he does on the eve of a potential work stoppage...

As for any rationale that has Tom settling for less due to advancing age over the course of the deal..., $12M+ Kurt Warner says Hi. Tom will age like fine wine as the cap spirals ever upward. With little fanfare he will get whatever Eli gets in guaranteed money or exceed him in the first three. Peyton will likely still get paid more, but Tom would prefer the rings. He doesn't measure success or rings in $$$ though he would be crazy not to expect to be maintained in the top 3 over the next 4-5 years. This may not even be his last extension.

And my gut tells me he will leave before someone has to suggest it. He won't be able to tolerate himself playing at anything short of the highest level. And if they do anything in light of services it's more likely to be to allow Brady to make that call here, on his terms.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Nobody knows but we all have opinions.

IMHO based on 9 years of actually paying attention to not only what he says but what he's already done and how he conducts himself, Brady will retire here. Legacy matters, and this is his dynasty as much as Krafts or BB's. He's never held them up, even with three rings in hand when negotiations opened at the teams request on his last extension. The one where he agreed to take what is turning out to be $4M per less per than the then ringless Manning took the year before on a deal that unless redone or voided will pay Peyton $15M at age 37 (although it will almost certainly be redone because he is on record as wanting to play until at least 39 and if the cap is reinstated Indy will need room).

Not that the backend salaries on deals longer than 5 years matter either since they aren't guaranteed even implicitly after the first 4...and I think Tom will get at least another 6 years in a new extension while Manning will as well. But I don't think it happens for either of them this season because of the CBA uncertainty and their dead cap. They're not waiting to see how Tom does. It they could do a deal comfortably or sensibly they'd have done it by now. Ditto Peyton. Eli might be the one who ends up having to wait while they see what he does on the eve of a potential work stoppage...

As for any rationale that has Tom settling for less due to advancing age over the course of the deal..., $12M+ Kurt Warner says Hi. Tom will age like fine wine as the cap spirals ever upward. With little fanfare he will get whatever Eli gets in guaranteed money or exceed him in the first three. Peyton will likely still get paid more, but Tom would prefer the rings. He doesn't measure success or rings in $$$ though he would be crazy not to expect to be maintained in the top 3 over the next 4-5 years. This may not even be his last extension.

And my gut tells me he will leave before someone has to suggest it. He won't be able to tolerate himself playing at anything short of the highest level. And if they do anything in light of services it's more likely to be to allow Brady to make that call here, on his terms.

From your lips to God's ears!!!

 

[Dirk3601215]

lol, at brady going to a team and not turning them into a winner. if he went to the 49ers they would be making deep playoff runs every year. yeah, hes that good and get used to it.

 

[mgteich]

The patriot TEAM went 11-5 behind a quarterback who hadn't started a college or NFL game. That this TEAM was the one of the best ever in 2003 and 2004 has to do with more than Brady. Do I believe that one of the Mannings could have been 16-0 in 2007? Probably not, but they would have come close. Kraft and Belichick have brought this team much more than Tom Brady.

Would one of the best QB's of all time help SF? Sure! Would they be making deep playoff runs every year? Naah! There are 53 players on a football TEAM. Guys like Dilfer have brought solid teams to Super Bowl wins. It is much more difficult for medicocre teams to be brought to the Super Bowl because they have great QB's.

Joe Montana had great teams behind him, as did Bradhaw, Aikman and the other past great QB's. The patriot TEAMS of 2003, 2004 and 2007 were great teams supporting a great quarterback.

lol, at brady going to a team and not turning them into a winner. if he went to the 49ers they would be making deep playoff runs every year. yeah, hes that good and get used to it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The patriot TEAM went 11-5 behind a quarterback who hadn't started a college or NFL game. That this TEAM was the one of the best ever in 2003 and 2004 has to do with more than Brady. Do I believe that one of the Mannings could have been 16-0 in 2007? Probably not, but they would have come close. Kraft and Belichick have brought this team much more than Tom Brady.

Would one of the best QB's of all time help SF? Sure! Would they be making deep playoff runs every year? Naah! There are 53 players on a football TEAM. Guys like Dilfer have brought solid teams to Super Bowl wins. It is much more difficult for medicocre teams to be brought to the Super Bowl because they have great QB's.

Joe Montana had great teams behind him, as did Bradhaw, Aikman and the other past great QB's. The patriot TEAMS of 2003, 2004 and 2007 were great teams supporting a great quarterback.

LOL Almost makes me wish we could turn back the clock and see how they'd have done had they been able to trade that compensatory 6th in 2000 for a 2001 5th...

My gut instinct is they'd be ringless and this place would be hosting a handful of diehards pissing and moaning about being less significant than the bruins...

It takes two to tango. It takes 3 to build the foundation for a dynasty. It's easy to look at 2008 from that well established basis and say who needed the GOAT QB... Although given Bill's prior track record at filling the position, the Bledsoe, Huard, Davey, Kingsbury, Flutie, Vinny, etc. years (as if Bill would have lasted that long in this media market) would have resulted in some Casselesque backup who belonged at Walmart attempting that bomb to a Reche or a Donte or more likely one of the KC defenders in week one ('cause Moss would have been in either GB or the looney bin sans Brady), and the 2008 Patriots might have never regained their footing, if they had any, when whomever their starting QB happened to be went down.

Might Bill have drafted a Rivers or Manning in the alternative? If he lasted past the eventual Bledsoe benching fallout in 2001 or 2002 he'd have certainly been in position to...and he'd have still had old RAC and Charlie to lean on, too. Unless he'd had to fire them to buy time.

I just don't get why some people here can't grasp the synergy of what it is and why they continue to see the valuing of any one component of it as somehow diminishing the trio in it's entirety. The Steelers have had top ownership and field management for ever. But they only won in the last couple of decades when they also had a top QB. It took Cowher 14 seasons to find the missing piece. BB wasn't ever gonna get that kind of time in NE. He was going to get a three year leash, four at most. Bob picked Pete, and he had his fallback retread alternative all lined up if he couldn't pry Belichick loose. Scary memory.

 

[Dirk3601215]

The patriot TEAM went 11-5 behind a quarterback who hadn't started a college or NFL game. That this TEAM was the one of the best ever in 2003 and 2004 has to do with more than Brady. Do I believe that one of the Mannings could have been 16-0 in 2007? Probably not, but they would have come close. Kraft and Belichick have brought this team much more than Tom Brady.

Would one of the best QB's of all time help SF? Sure! Would they be making deep playoff runs every year? Naah! There are 53 players on a football TEAM. Guys like Dilfer have brought solid teams to Super Bowl wins. It is much more difficult for medicocre teams to be brought to the Super Bowl because they have great QB's.

Joe Montana had great teams behind him, as did Bradhaw, Aikman and the other past great QB's. The patriot TEAMS of 2003, 2004 and 2007 were great teams supporting a great quarterback.

Your kidding yourself. Belichick was reeling off mediocre seasons before brady came along. what was it his first year in new england? 5-11. then the next year 11-5. coincidence? i think not.

last year, my pats were the benificiaries of a weak schedule and even i can admit it. they would have been first round fodder with all their injuries. without those injuries they easily win the superbowl. get a clue.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

lol, at brady going to a team and not turning them into a winner. if he went to the 49ers they would be making deep playoff runs every year. yeah, hes that good and get used to it.

Tom Brady is accurate? Where was it in the superbowl? He is a terrific player but he is a mega choker, thats right he is an even bigger choker than peyton. he short arms all his throws and he misses wide open receivers in the clutch. He is like the arod of football. Great player but a choker.

You're nothing if not inconsistent...

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

You're nothing if not inconsistent...

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH SNAP! :disagreement: :violent: :attention:

 

[Dirk3601215]

You're nothing if not inconsistent...

i said he is a great player. i'm the definition of consistency. and yeah, tb has choked the big one recently.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

lol, at brady going to a team and not turning them into a winner. if he went to the 49ers they would be making deep playoff runs every year. yeah, hes that good and get used to it.

Its all about the system. Tom Brady is a great Quarterback, but its not just about the QB, its about the team and the system, thats how they win!! BB has a system that is successful and its been proven!!! Why are these haters in our forum? :confused2: