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Time value of picks/trading picks

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Mar 25, 2012.

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  1. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    1. If it really continues to be possible to trade picks into future years in return for a 50% annual premium in value (e.g. as measured by the trade value chart), then that is a good thing to do. Brady's "closing window" does not invalidate the strategy.

    2. If this really is a particularly good draft, then it would be nice to get a particularly high premium for any such trade.

    3. BB's negotiating strategy, whether on trades or on contracts, seems to be to declare an acceptable deal and stick to it. I.e., he's well toward the "firm price end of the "firm price"/"haggle" spectrum. Either orientation has its strengths and weaknesses; he has his. Accept it.

    (I happen to share BB's orientation. Like BB, I'd guess I'm better than the other guy at game theory, but not necessarily better at reading people or at avoiding being read.)

    4. None of the above precludes trading up. However ...

    5. ... given the likelihood of being able to get a good return from trading a late first-rounder forward, BB might be reluctant to give such assets up until they're on the clock.
  2. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    I've always agreed with the strategy. Teams tend to overpay for trade-ups, especially when trading away future picks for picks now. I'll take the value any day given the shape our roster is in. We have needs that need addressed now but guess what so does every other team.

    Plus given the nature of the NFL draft, it tends to be somewhat a crapshoot at a certain point, aside from having a higher pick and a chance to draft a Richard Seymour/Jarrod Mayo I'll gladly take the trade-downs.
  3. Dragda

    Dragda Yes, it's really me... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't really have a problem with the strategy, but it is sometimes frustrating when a player you like (as a fan) is still on the board and they trade. Then that player goes on to have a good career.
  4. voluntarysaftey

    voluntarysaftey Rookie

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    I've got no problem for trading a pick this year for a pick one round lower this year and the same pick next year. To me a 1st round pick is just as valuable as the 1st round pick next year -- I don't really discount time in the way most teams do.

    What does frustrate me about Bill is when he trades down 4 spots and picks up a 6th round pick -- the 6th round pick is unlikely to make the team, so I'd rather they stay put or even move up moving up involves trading a lower round pick this year.
  5. Kjmass1

    Kjmass1 Rookie

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    I think BB realizes that whenever he trades down, it is always to a team with a worse record than us since we are at the top of the league each year. If you can move up 15 spots in the first round just by trading to the Redskins, you take that every time.
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Trading a 1 for a 2 and a 1 next year is really the only way we ever can get a high first rounder.
  7. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    And Jerrod Mayo says Hi! :)
  8. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    I've seen the theory, which makes sense to me, that most general managers have adverse incentives, in that they need to Win Soon to keep their jobs. However, this is not true of BB.

    Indeed, I would expect that Robert Kraft has made it very, very clear to BB just how supportive of long-term value maximization he is.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2012
  9. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    Read Greg Bedard's post in this morning's Globe. It might change
    your mind on trading down. Belichick picks up a lot of extra picks
    but makes loads of mistakes in the 2nd and 3rd round.

    He also sometimes overrules his own scouting staff. The scouts did not
    recommend either Laurence Maroney or Chad Jackson. Josh McDaniel's
    brother played a part in drafting these players.
  10. plk

    plk Rookie

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    I agree. Since you get a draft pick for four years at rookie wage scale prices, and that is a large part of the value of a draft pick, it does not really matter whether the four years start this year or next year. And the team is being compensated, one way or another, for waiting. (I don't remember if the highest picks are still five years under the new contract.)
    Draft picks are not money, and the discount model is a false analogy.
  11. plk

    plk Rookie

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    That is absolutely true, but can you give an example of a general manager for whom it isn't true. How many general managers have done better than Belichick with those picks over a period of time?

    You have to compare Belichick to what is possible in the real world as shown by what other general managers do, not by some absolute standard of always hitting on draft picks.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2012
  12. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If BB is as analytical as we've read him to be post every season when he reviews performance, he should have recognized this unproductive behavior of his and taken steps to improve and correct these bad behaviors
  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Trading down and getting more 2nd and 3rds has allowed the team to stay at the top of the league, when like everyone else, they miss on a lot of them.
    When you trade down to get more picks, and end up with more players but a higher % of misses, you won.

    Why is it surprising to you that the person with the ultimate decision will make decisions that some subordinates disagree with?
    Your understanding of the impact of McDaniels asking his brothers opinion on a player he coached is not real clear.
  14. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

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    The trading down is not why the pats stay on top.....Brady is. If the pats had to out on Hoyer last year, they would have likely won 3 or 4 games.

    Trading down has been a relative disaster for the defense. The idea gives you more darts, but the targets are much smaller.
  15. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    This is a bit of an oversimplification of many different levels, but does show the different layers that go into such strategies.

    The old and now outdated draft value chart doesn't yet reflect the increased value of top picks with relatively low salaries, at least compared to the old system. As such value of those top picks will shift.

    Everything else is determined by a complex matrix of what type of a draft it is this year, what next year's draft is predicted to look like, how a trading partner team might do if trading for a future draft pick, etc. etc.

    Most important is the question of how bad a team wants the player they're trading for.

    But from Belichick's standpoint there's also no downside til waiting til they're on the clock to make any trade.

    I do know one thing - if there's anyone that Belichick wants in the draft, he has the ammunition to get them. Not every GM can say that - but that is precisely what power Belichick attempts to provide himself with when he's making numerous future moves.

    So don't be surprised if he uses that power to move up in the draft, if indeed there's a player that he really wants.
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2012
  16. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I dont agree. You don't stay on top for this long because of one guy, and the year Brady was out were were 11-5.
  17. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

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    That team was vastly different from this one. Even with Matt cassel, this team would not have been 11-5.

    But I digress......thte bottom line is that the trading down is not why this team has stayed good over this time. How many big hits have there been with a traded down pick? Gronk?
  18. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    From the first three rounds from 2006-2009, only four of 14 draftees are still with the team. One of the four is Ron Brace. To me this is a pretty
    poor drafting record. Belichick is better at signing middle tier free agents.
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Trading down is part of the personel strategy that has produced the results.

    Saying the team can't win without Brady and dismissing the year they did as 'different' is disingenuous.
  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think it's fair to say that BB went into a personnel slump during those years, and to say that it involved more than just the draft. I don't think it's fair to say that BB is a poor drafter over all.
  21. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Interesting that you leave out 10-11 where 9 of 10 are still here, and at least 6 will be starters.

    How many of the picks from 06-09 were trade downs?

    Going back to 2006 is not realistic because very few players stay on the same team 6 years after being drafted, but I know why you did that. 2007 is also silly to include because they had 1 pick in those 3 rounds. We do still have the guy who had the 19th best season ever by a WR last year with a 2nd from that draft though.

    So really we are down to 2 years where 100% of the 1st are still here. 60% of the 2nds are still here with 2 of the 3 starting, and we missed on a bunch of 3rds. Hardly poor.
  22. plk

    plk Rookie

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    It may well be, but to know, you still have to compare it to other managers records. How many managers can you find who have not had a similarly bad record over four drafts? What sort of records have other managers had over 2006-2009?

    Neither you, nor anyone else, is going to be convincing until you compare Belichick's results with those of other managers. I am sure there are some who've done better over that period, but how many.

    For a longer-term view, see:Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts
  23. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    I have some doubts about the trading down hit rate too, and I certainly haven't memorized which pick came on which trade, but Matt Light came on a trade down (from a slot where the Steelers picked a 3-4 LB DROY, however).

    Gronk was more of a trade up than a trade down, but it started from a time-value trade-forward deal.

    Vollmer wasn't a trade pick, but he was in a busy 2nd round in a trade-down year.

    Mayo and McCourty were trade downs, although the trade-down bounties for them busted.

    Hernandez was a trade-down bounty that did not bust.
  24. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'd say we made out quite a bit better with Matt Light than the Steelers did with Kendrall Bell
  25. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Rookie

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    Not for the next two years I hope.
  26. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I could certainly see BB trade out of that second 1st round pick, if he didn't have to drop down too far and he'd already gotten a quality prospect with the first 1st rounder. That's the sort of move that seems to fit the pattern.
  27. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Indeed. And I'm happy with McCourty over either Dez Bryant or Tim Tebow.
  28. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    Given that I feel there's no difference in this year's draft between the talent around 21 from 41 I hope they move both first rounders. However I hope they do something like trade 31 and a 3rd to get to 20 and take a player like Cox and then trade 27 to move down and get the third back plus a pick still near the top of the second. Use that pick and the pick at 48 to grab a couple more defenders to expedite the rebuild.
  29. manxman2601

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    Those drafts netted us our leading WR, our second most important defensive player and about 15% of our 53 man squad.

    Judging a draft by how many players remain on a team is a very poor way of doing it. Yes we made mistakes, as did every other team. The difference is, we got rid of our mistakes, other teams held on to theirs. We went to the SB, most of the rest didn't. Go figure.
  30. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    An interesting question would be to compare where BB has gotten the most value per trade-value-chart-point. Off the top of my head, I wouldn't be surprised if it's pretty balanced.

    The high first-rounders were Seymour, Mayo, and Warren.

    The lower first-rounders included Wilfork, Maroney, and a lot of guys in-between those extremes. (No first rounder was worse than JAG starter Maroney.)

    The high second round ranges from Gronkowski to Chad Jackson. What you think of it probably depends in big part on what you think of Chung.

    The low second round includes Branch, Vollmer, and Spikes, but also Wheatley and Hill.

    The third round -- well, the less said about that, the better, but it did net some years of JAG starter.

    The fourth round probably has good average value -- Asante, Jarvis Green, Gostowski, some JAG RTs, ... Also a whole lot of busts.

    And so on.
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