Time value of picks ain't what it used to be

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Fencer, Apr 29, 2008.

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  1. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    In two trades, the Pats have turned a 2007 late 3rd rounder into a 2009 2nd rounder.

    On the plus side, I'm psyched about who they picked with the 5th rounder they got in the mix.
  2. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

    I get your point and it is true that with two years of "recycling" you would think that the Pats could have turned a late 3rd into more than a likely late 2nd. However, there are other circumstances to consider:

    1) The Pats rated the 2007 draft class as just slightly above cow poop. Given that background, it isn't surprising the Pats jumped at the chance to turn a late 3rd into a likely early 3rd in 2008 (a much deeper draft class).

    2) The Pats traded their 3rd this year to the Chargers for a 2nd in 2009 and a 2008 fifth round pick (as you noted). The thinking was likely that they could get the players they wanted without that 3rd round pick and gaining a first day pick in 2009 was too enticing.

    All sounds good to me. The only aspect that I question is it looks like the Pats wanted Zack Bowman (one of my sleepers) and missed out on him. If the 2009 draft class turns out to be deep, which we won't know until juniors declare, then the Pats are laughing all the way to the bank. If the 2009 draft class is a stinker and the Pats can't use the extra 2nd in a tradeup or recycle the pick to 2010, then Zack Bowman will start to look better and better.

    So your point is well taken but the story of that 2007 late 3rd pick hasn't been fully written yet.
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2008
  3. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    In terms of turning 3rd round picks into future 2nd round picks I think the O'Connell pick should be mentioned as well.

    I think BB and Pioli felt that many teams had O'Connell rated as a 3rd round pick. Maybe they even got some calls from interested teams.

    The most intriguing aspect of this is that next year's QB crop is expected to be weak - much weaker than this years.

    So while I think BB is genuinely interested to see what he has in the 6'5" O'Connell, even he does nothing this year but gain some valuable experience in an NFL system, I don't think his value will drop below that of a 3rd round pick.

    In fact, as other teams realize there are few worthwhile QBs in the 2009 draft, or as the injury bug hit them at QB, I would not be shocked to see a team in need offer a 2nd rounder - even a high 2nd rounder - for the rights to O'Connell.

    If that happened it would have the same effect as trading a late 3rd rounder for a mid to early 2nd rounder - a trade any of us would be ecstatic to make. But in the meantime we get a chance to see what he can do - showcase him if he's good, hide him if he's not, and benefit from depth on the roster in the meantime.
  4. 40yrpatsfan

    40yrpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    For 3rd to 2nd and 2nd to 1st, it's not a slam dunk that you'll move up a full round. Most of the Pats' picks are at the bottom of the round, which factors into it, and also how good a record the trading partner is likely to have. We got lucky that SF tanked last year.

    With lower rounds, I think it does hold in general. A current year 6th will usually get you a next year 5th.
  5. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    I think we worry more about the ones that got away than the Pats do. Face it: they have over a hundred guys on their draft board, guys that they want. They know upfront that they will walk away with 6-7 and that only 4-5 will even make the team.

    They tried to trade up for Bowman, but the best they could do was trade up to #153 and the Bears took him with #152. Not much you can do about that except move on.

    What I found fascinating was Pioli's statement that they had scouts at all of O'Connell's games last year. That is a heavy investment of manpower for a guy most of us didn't even know existed until his name was called on Sunday.
  6. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    Obviously, people expect the San Diego pick to be low. They are certainly talented, but...

    This is year three in their unfulfilled "greatness". They collapsed like crybabies 2 years ago, firing a coach with a 14-2 record.

    Played like crap most of last year (though I admired Rivers guts) with players walking all over Turner and Lady Tomlinson acting like more of a Primadona than ever.

    Peyton has a bad habit of blaming, but he's the unquestioned leader, so he gets away with it.

    San Diego has...

    A general manager who doesn't want a strong coach and two attitude cases who happen to be the team leaders and apparently don't like each other.

    I've seen more talented teams collapse due to dissension.

    Stay tuned......
  7. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

    Agree. I was just trying to play devil's advocate on the trade and that was the best I could come up with.

    While hearing O'Connell in the 3rd surprised me, hearing his name called for the Pats on Sunday was no surprise at all. Every quarterback this millenium that has won a Super Bowl has the same basic physical profile. You have to go back to Kurt Warner to see a shorter (< 6'4") quarterback win the big one.

    So who in this draft class fit the new prototype (sorry UnderArmor):

    Matt Ryan - drafted too high for Pats
    Joe Flacco - maybe too tall...but still too early
    Andre Woodson - delivery. is. so. painfully. slow.
    Erik Ainge
    Kevin O'Connell
    Kyle Wright - just terrible

    So Ainge and O'Connell stand out. Ainge is more ready to play now, but O'Connell has a massive upside. If he gets it and follows Brady around like a puppy (Giselle won't mind), I like his chances of realizing a good amount of that upside.
  8. jcdavey

    jcdavey In the Starting Line-Up

    fired a 14-2 coach who panicked in playoffs though

    norv actually won some playoff games, that's why we got him

    we had to end that curse of marty.

    i got no shame in losing to a 17-0 team, would you? lol
  9. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    All I mean is that we see poor teams that are young and improving as poor next year. Not always the case if they have good management and leadership.

    By the same token, talented teams often fall apart after a few years based on poor leadership and management decisions.

    If you think that a GM forcing out Shottenheimer in favor of Norv turner is anything but ego run amok, good luck.

    Schotty hasn't won the big one? Fine. Explain Norv Turner then.

    Your young quarterback and pouting running back are acting like 3 year olds.

    Even with bottom feeders, I couldn't find ten teams that argue and pout and fire coaches in a panic like S.D. has in the last two years.

    Bad chemistry, I'd say.
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