A receiver is supposed to do three things:
- Go where he's supposed to go. This is largely mental, but may also be an issue of physically beating the press.
- Catch the ball once he gets there. This is the skill in which they all need to far surpass ordinary mortals.
- Shed defenders along the way. This can be a matter of out-running them (least relevant on the Pats), out-jumping them (sort of what a tall TE does, sort of what Lloyd does), blocking them off physically (what a big TE does), being lightning-quick in cuts (famously important on the Pats), or being Randy Moss.
I don't see Ochocinco as being likely to meet those criteria well enough to beat out the other roster candidates.
I think that you make some great points, and on some level I tend to agree with you.
However (to play Devil's advocate--don't ask me why
) I also think that the competition isn't exactly great against C.Johnson, and the overall likely number of WR is still yet to be determined.
There also seems to be some sense of mystique and unanswered questions around Johnson, such as his restructure of giving up 2/3rds of his salary for the chance to make the squad, the thinking that BB may be giving him more than enough chances to make the team, and any level of knowledge that he may already have. Even though it does not seem to be much to us fans, Belichick may have a different viewpoint.
I think that you certainly may be more closer to right than wrong, and that there is certainly much potential for Johnson to be cut in TC; but I also think that he is (somehow) still the front-runner over possible guys like Gonzalez, Ebert, and even maybe Stallworth.
It will obviously come down to whether or not he shows enough in the next 2-3 months to earn a spot, that can't be debated, but I would question the fact that so many already have him written off.
As weird as it does seem, Belichick is obviously giving him every possible shot to make the roster. Whether or not he can do that remains to be seen, and the odds are probably against him, but personally I am not going to write him off just yet.
Now if Ebert, Stallworth (who has not had the most glowing of initial reviews, even though they are early on), or Gonzalez show something, then I think we can put the final nail in the coffin.
Regardless, I do respect your opinion, and you very well could be right. I am just giving some random thoughts about the situation. As of now, I haven't seen enough (or anything, really) from his so-called competition to write him off.
Besides the general feeling of the forum, all we seem to have is an off-sides play and a punishment lap.