Tiebreaker scenarios: Jets, Ravens, Bolts

[Isaac]

I'll follow up last week's common games breakdown with an expanded tiebreaker scenario thread.

Vs. Jets (Pats 8-3, Jets 6-5)
2nd tiebreaker: Division record - Pats 4-1, Jets 3-1.
Remaining games: Pats at Phins, Jets vs Bills and at Phins.
Outlook: Patriots can secure a tie for this one with a win over Phins, otherwise the Jets could get this tiebreaker.

3rd tiebreaker: Common games
Jets schedule:
Sep 10 @Tennessee Won 23-16 (Pats to play)
Sep 24 @Buffalo Won 28-20 (Pats win)
Oct 1 Indianapolis Lost 28-31 (Pats loss)
Oct 8 @Jacksonville Lost 0-41 (Pats to play)
Oct 15 Miami Won 20-17 (Pats to win)
Oct 22 Detroit Won 31-24 (Pats to play)
Nov 19 Chicago Lost 0-10 (Pats win)
Nov 26 Houston Won 26-11 (Pats to play)
Dec 3 @Green Bay 1:00pm (Pats win)
Dec 10 Buffalo 4:15pm (Pats win)
Dec 17 @Minnesota 1:00pm (Pats win)
Dec 25 @Miami 8:30pm (Pats to play)
Current: Jets 5-3, Pats 6-1
Outlook: All the Patriots remaining games are common games, as are 4 of the Jets' games. But since the Jets need to make up two games anyway, this would likely end up in a tie (as long as the Jets beat Oakland). There are only two non-common games in these schedules, and both teams would be 1-1 in those if the Jets beat Oakland.

4th tiebreaker: Strength of victory. I ain't doing the math for this one, but currently (http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference) the Patriots have a sizable lead, so if it came to this the Patriots probably get it.

Overall: Obviously with a two-game lead we hope that the tiebreaker won't come into play. If it does, the Patriots would lose it if we lose to the Dolphins and the Jets win out. Otherwise the Patriots would probably win it by strength of victory.

vs. Ravens (Pats 8-3, Ravens 9-2)
2nd tiebreaker: AFC record (Pats 5-3, Ravens 6-1)
It goes to the Ravens , as long as the Patriots beat the Lions. After that both teams have all their remaining games in-conference so no way for the Patriots to gain two games in the conference record and still be tied.
Ravens remaining schedule:
Nov 30 @Cincinnati 8:00pm
Dec 10 @Kansas City 1:00pm
Dec 17 Cleveland 1:00pm
Dec 24 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm
Dec 31 Buffalo 1:00pm
Outlook: The Ravens could lose two of these, so it's not hopeless.

vs. Chargers (Pats 8-3, Chargers 9-2)
2nd tiebreaker: AFC record (Pats 5-3, Chargers 7-2)
Chargers remaining schedule:
Dec 3 @Buffalo 1:00pm (AFC)
Dec 10 Denver 4:15pm (AFC)
Dec 17 Kansas City 4:05pm (AFC)
Dec 24 @Seattle 4:15pm
Dec 31 Arizona 4:15pm
Outlook: The Chargers have to lose one of these three AFC games to give the Patriots a chance to tie this by winning out their AFC games (all but Lions game).

3rd tiebreaker: common games
Common games:
Sep 17 Tennessee Won (Pats to play)
Nov 12 @Cincinnati Won (Pats win)
Nov 19 @Denver Won (Pats loss)
Dec 3 @Buffalo (Pats win X 2)
Dec 10 Denver
Current: SD 3-0, Patriots 3-1
Remaining: SD - Denver and Buffalo; Pats - Tenn.
Outlook: If the Patriots beat Tennessee, SD needs to lose to Denver or Buffalo to force a tie.

4th tiebreaker: Strength of victory. I still ain't doing the math for this one, but currently (http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference) the Patriots have an enormous lead, so if it came to this the Patriots probably get it.

Overall: one loss by San Diego to Denver or Buffalo and the tie goes to the Patriots, otherwise the Chargers get it.

As always, let me know about errors or omissions.

 

[pats60]

You did a great job doing this.
It took a lot of time

 

[mgcolby]

I like Buffalo's chances this week, they are coming off a big win and snow is in the forecast for Sunday. Hopefully Losman and Evans can keep pace.

I'm not holding my breath but the conditions are right for this to be the classic trap game for the Bolts: On the road (cross country), in the Snow and cold, coming off a hard fought divisional game, two more games that will go a long way in deciding the West in the following two weeks against division foes and they are playing a team they should beat.

Anything can happen, I also like Cincy's chances this week as well. Billick gave his team Monday and half of Tuesday off and they travel to Cincy today. Both teams coming off of a shutout, it should be a good game.

Go Bungles and Bills! :rocker:

 

[FortLauderdaleBroncosFan]

i'm hoping the pats to become #3 seed so they could face seed #6 Broncos Broncos still have a very good chance to be #2 if they went defeated for remainding of the season, they would finish at 12-4

 

[mgcolby]

i'm hoping the pats to become #3 seed so they could face seed #6 Broncos

I think you guys signed your death warrant by starting Cutler. He won't win more than two games for you guys. If your defense was still playing the way it was earlier in the season you would have a fighting chance but that isn't the case. Good luck next year.

I hope those two wins are against Seattle and SD but I think they are more likely to come against Arizona and SF.

 

[Isaac]

You did a great job doing this.
It took a lot of time

Thanks, I end up doing it for myself anyway (weird, I realize, but I want/need to know the situation and my brain kind of works this way), so it's great to share.

 

[brdmaverick]

those back to back home losses to the Colts and Jets were killers. Just think, going into the Indy game we were playing for the #1 seed in the playoffs.

Last year we finished at 10-6 and ended up with the fourth seed. I think our team has been more consistent this year and could finish with a 13-3 record and yet we could STILL end up with the fourth seed, no better off than we were the year before. And to think that in 2001 we earned a playoff bye with an 11-5 record. Oh how the AFC has changed.