Thursday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans

[Patriot Missile]

I've brought this up in another thread, and I think it fits this:

If you start with 2000, the Steelers have had four 3 year cycles where they've missed the playoffs and then made it twice. This is the year they would be due to miss again. I find this significant because of the first round picks they've been able to make following those "off" years:

Casey Hampton
Ben Roethlisberger
Lawrence Timmons
Maurkice Pouncey

That's not to say that they've drafted poorly in the first round of other years, but those are major pickups gotten because they were able to draft a little higher than they otherwise would have. A top 2-3 NT, a top 5 QB, a center who's on the way to being the best in the league if he's not already there, and a very good overall LB for a system that revolves around that LB position (Woodley was gotten in that same 2007 draft that brought in Timmons).

Polamalu was gotten at #16, for that matter, again showing their ability to take advantage of being a bit higher up in the round.

No question they are in the top 3 on draft day. That's what separates the Pats Steelers and Ravens. I like how Houston and Frisco draft as well but they built their team off of suckage and continual top 5 to 15 draft picks. But your right Pittsburgh and some of their signings have been in those off years. kudos to Woodley in the 2nd though. I wanted him that year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

This particular season may be a lost cause, but I wouldn't throw dirt on Pitt long-term just yet. I think as long as they have Ben, and don't suffer an inordinate amount of injuries, they'll be back in the mix again next year...and likely, for the remainder of Ben's career. (I would say this about *any* team with a very good, SB veteran QB and a solid franchise btw--for example I would never declare the Giants "done" if they finished 8-8 this year).

BTW Tomlin, not Cowher, was the one to let Joey Porter go and anoint Harrison a full-time starter. And Woodley was a Tomlin pick, not a Cowher pick. On Steelers boards after a tough loss, there's always a revisionist history thing that goes on suggesting that Tomlin has simply been riding Cowher's coattails. People forget that team that Tomlin inherited was an aging 8-8 squad with a ton of question marks; he deserves credit for right that ship (and of course winning the SB in his second year). For whatever reason, people also tend to overlook that very good players have also been added under Tomlin's tenure (Woodley, Timmons, Brown, Wallace, Pouncey), and that Cowher had his own questionable personnel issues (he famously had to be talked into drafting Roethlisberger over Shawn Andrews by Dan Rooney). But the grass is always greener, right?

So I'm not quite ready to abandon ship and start clamoring for the organization to fire everyone and start over (even after last night, and even if I'm in the minority among Steelers fans right now LOL). Not every year can be a Super Bowl year, but I remain pretty optimistic about the next 6-8 years or so.

lillloyd

Oh I definitely wasn't calling for Tomlin's head or anything, I just think he inherited a good team and a talent base which I listed early and also includes arguably a top 5 QB. The Steelers missed the playoffs in 2006 mainly due to Ben's injuries and coming off the crash otherwise they had been a strong AFC contender. Of course the other supporting pieces he brought along have been fine, but when you have a top 5 QB and a talent base on D like he had it's hard to go wrong with that. Also **** Labeau one of the brilliant defensive minds of all time. My point was I keep hearing that Tomlin is an elite coach I believe this is where his test truly begins can he keep the Steelers near the top of the AFC on a consistent basis as that talent base fades and the transition begins. Like you said having Ben helps his chances. I said in an earlier post the Steelers are down but definitely not out.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think I've said this on this board before -- this year shapes up amazingly well for you guys in the AFC, and not just due to the schedule.

I really believe that even if Balt and/or Houston finishes ahead of you, that won't discount the *massive* advantage you'll have at QB. It simply cannot be overstated how important it is to have a veteran, SB QB (not to mention coaching staff). Flacco and Schaub are still guys that are trying to figure it out; Brady has been there, done that. I'm not saying these guys can't break through, but the vet SB winning QB can erase a lot of other potential playoff deficiencies IMHO (byes/home field, etc.)

Yeah I thought last year the stars pretty much aligned for us with Houston and PIT's injuries, drawing Tim Tebow in round 2, then Billy Cundiff's shank. This year it's a little bit harder if Houston stays healthy and Suggs comes back full strength, but still it's nothing like previous AFC years where it was a dogfight just to get past the WC round.

 

[lillloyd]

Oh I definitely wasn't calling for Tomlin's head or anything, I just think he inherited a good team and a talent base which I listed early and also includes arguably a top 5 QB. The Steelers missed the playoffs in 2006 mainly due to Ben's injuries and coming off the crash otherwise they had been a strong AFC contender. Of course the other supporting pieces he brought along have been fine, but when you have a top 5 QB and a talent base on D like he had it's hard to go wrong with that. Also **** Labeau one of the brilliant defensive minds of all time. My point was I keep hearing that Tomlin is an elite coach I believe this is where his test truly begins can he keep the Steelers near the top of the AFC on a consistent basis as that talent base fades and the transition begins. Like you said having Ben helps his chances. I said in an earlier post the Steelers are down but definitely not out.

Fair enough. FWIW plenty of Steelers fans *are* calling for Tomlin's head. They do so after every tough loss each year...it's sadly quite predictable LOL

And I don't know either if Tomlin is "elite" (and really don't know if Cowher was "elite")...but I do think that, in this organization, he's plenty good enough. Cowher, like Tomlin, also benefited from having Ben on the roster (he was 6-10 the year before drafting him, and had only 2 double-digit winning seasons in the six years prior to that draft).

Which is a roundabout way of saying it may not be the coach that matters, so much as having a franchise QB in place. Cowher was markedly "smarter" with Roethlisberger as his QB than he was with Tommy Maddox or Kordell Stewart

 

[lillloyd]

Yeah I thought last year the stars pretty much aligned for us with Houston and PIT's injuries, drawing Tim Tebow in round 2, then Billy Cundiff's shank. This year it's a little bit harder if Houston stays healthy and Suggs comes back full strength, but still it's nothing like previous AFC years where it was a dogfight just to get past the WC round.

It's weird, I know Balt and Houston have excellent teams, but I'm having a really tough time imagining anyone but NE getting out of the AFC.

Baltimore just seems so inconsistent--they're still trying to sort out their identity on offense. And Houston reminds me of Pitt's 90s teams, where if you could just get ahead of them and force them to throw you might expose them. (Andre Johnson's great, but I'm not yet ready to bet the farm that Matt Schaub can pull out a 4th quarter comeback in the AFC title game).

I actually think btw that you guys would have gotten out of the AFC last year even with better health in the rest of the AFC...but there might have been a couple extra grey hairs in Patriot Nation

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Fair enough. FWIW plenty of Steelers fans *are* calling for Tomlin's head. They do so after every tough loss each year...it's sadly quite predictable LOL

And I don't know either if Tomlin is "elite" (and really don't know if Cowher was "elite")...but I do think that, in this organization, he's plenty good enough. Cowher, like Tomlin, also benefited from having Ben on the roster (he was 6-10 the year before drafting him, and had only 2 double-digit winning seasons in the six years prior to that draft).

Which is a roundabout way of saying it may not be the coach that matters, so much as having a franchise QB in place. Cowher was markedly "smarter" with Roethlisberger as his QB than he was with Tommy Maddox or Kordell Stewart

Haha, I think it's pretty ridiculous for people to throw Tomlin under the bus. Knowing how hard it is to find a good HC and the teams that have really been a mess, I'd think they should be pretty happy with Tomlin. I felt like Cowher definitely was elite. He went to what 5 or 6 AFCC's from 1993-2005? And from what I remember the Steelers weren't much of a factor before he took over.

 

[PATS16N0]

If the Steelers by some miracle make it to the post season it's going to be a massacre. They've lost to the Raiders and the Titans. They made the Titans look good. Every other elite team + the Chargers and the Vikings steam rolled the Titans.

I think Tomlin is revealing himself as way over rated, having won a Superbowl with another HC's team and now has a very old and over paid Steeler team in shambles. Pittsburgh's chickens come home to roast this season.

They're LUCKY they don't play the Patriots this year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It's weird, I know Balt and Houston have excellent teams, but I'm having a really tough time imagining anyone but NE getting out of the AFC.

Baltimore just seems so inconsistent--they're still trying to sort out their identity on offense. And Houston reminds me of Pitt's 90s teams, where if you could just get ahead of them and force them to throw you might expose them. (Andre Johnson's great, but I'm not yet ready to bet the farm that Matt Schaub can pull out a 4th quarter comeback in the AFC title game).

I actually think btw that you guys would have gotten out of the AFC last year even with better health in the rest of the AFC...but there might have been a couple extra grey hairs in Patriot Nation

The season's still early, but Johnson doesn't look like the same guy right now. I think injuries and age are catching up to him, but who knows maybe he'll turn it around in the 2nd half. Cromartie was all over him on Monday, just doesn't look the same and Houston's passing game seems rather limited because of that. Baltimore could easily be 2-3 right now I think they've been fortunate. But if Suggs comes back, I'm a little bit more concerned. Hope you guys can help us out in your matchups with them.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If the Steelers by some miracle make it to the post season it's going to be a massacre. They've lost to the Raiders and the Titans. They made the Titans look good. Every other elite team + the Chargers and the Vikings steam rolled the Titans.

It appears that way but alot can change from now until the end of the season. There were points in the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011 season where you could've looked at the teams that won the SB those years and at some point in the regular season say you couldn't imagine this team winning it all. The Giants getting whalloped at NO last year by 30 or 40 points and being dominated two times by a horrible Redskins team comes to mind.

 

[Deus Irae]

They actually traded up in 2003 to grab TP btw.

I mentioned him among the high picks but didn't include him in the list.

I sometimes wonder if these cycles aren't somewhat inevitable. Teams that go deep in the playoffs for 2 or 3 years running are essentially adding another half season of games to that period. It's well-documented that teams that lose the SB tend to struggle the following year. Maybe frequent contenders just get tired and beat up at the end of these cycles, and use the off year to rest up and reload (with slightly higher draft position to boot).

I think you're hitting on what the league hopes for. It wants to see all the teams getting their moments in the sun. That's good for ratings. What's happened, though, is that it's become about the QB. Imagine the Steelers if they'd made the playoffs in 2003 and not gotten Roethlisberger. Look at the gift that the Colts got by stinking in just the right year.

I definitely think that playing the extra games has an effect, but I think we also see that teams with the elite QBs have the ability to avoid the worst of it.

As you've said, certainly it fits Pitt's MO over the past decade or so.

Well, I think Pittsburgh's issues have been mostly about injuries and QBs. 2003 was that final season with Maddox as the starter, and he couldn't get it done. 2006 was Roethlisberger, post-accident, and is his worst season to date. 2009 was the year Polamalu only played 5 games. 2012 has been an injuryfest so far. To me, it seems more of a coincidental string of bad luck than something set up by the league.

I do think Pittsburgh's got age issues in some key defensive areas, and this year could put them high enough in the draft for them to have higher picks to address them.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The season's still early, but Johnson doesn't look like the same guy right now. I think injuries and age are catching up to him, but who knows maybe he'll turn it around in the 2nd half. Cromartie was all over him on Monday, just doesn't look the same and Houston's passing game seems rather limited because of that. Baltimore could easily be 2-3 right now I think they've been fortunate. But if Suggs comes back, I'm a little bit more concerned. Hope you guys can help us out in your matchups with them.

Watching MNF last week, I was definitely playing the "Either Cromartie's a whole lot better than I thought, or Johnson isn't as good as I thought" guessing game. Johnson has been nicked up pretty consistently for the past few years, though, so it wouldn't surprise me if we're witnessing a fairly rapid decline from him.