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Three Picks Turn Into 10 Players


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From now on, whenever somebody refers to a Combine workout wonder who showed little on the field as "a Mike Mamula," we should be sure to correct it to "a Clay Matthews."

Mamula was a stud on the field for BC, recording 153 tackles and 28 sacks his last 2 years. Matthews was mostly a special teamer who finally made it onto the defense as a senior. He graduated with a 4-year combined total of 54 tackles and a whopping 4 sacks.

Clay Matthews was 225-230 in the 2005-2007 seasons, listed at 240 as a senior in college, 240 at the NFL combine in spring 2009, listed at 245 at the start of the 2009 season and listed at 255 at the start of the 2010 season. During the superbowl week they were talking about him being 260 or 265.

It's pretty hard to predict that after his 10 pound gain as a 22 year old redshirt senior (from a weight he'd been holding for years while presumably working out hard at a major college strength program) that he'd be able to add another 20+ pounds in about 18 months without losing speed, quickness or agility.
 
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I know a lot of the posters really love Matthews, but I think they are unfair about it and really harp on BB for not drafting him.

Somehow they overlook the fact that most teams passed on him. Think Seattle would take him over Aaron Curry at #4? Or the Bills, who took Maybin at 11, or the Chargers who took Larry English at 16?

What about teams in the top 10 that wasted picks, like the Bungles taking Andre Smith at 5 or the Raiders taking Heyward-Bay at 6. Or Jacksonville, which could have filled that pass-rushing need but instead took a solid, yet unspectacular tackle in Eugene Monroe at 8.

A lot of people were unsure about what Matthews would become.
 
I know a lot of the posters really love Matthews, but I think they are unfair about it and really harp on BB for not drafting him.

Somehow they overlook the fact that most teams passed on him. Think Seattle would take him over Aaron Curry at #4? Or the Bills, who took Maybin at 11, or the Chargers who took Larry English at 16?

What about teams in the top 10 that wasted picks, like the Bungles taking Andre Smith at 5 or the Raiders taking Heyward-Bay at 6. Or Jacksonville, which could have filled that pass-rushing need but instead took a solid, yet unspectacular tackle in Eugene Monroe at 8.

A lot of people were unsure about what Matthews would become.


That is true but Matthews was considered one of the top prospects for the position. He was considered a 1st round talent and he also had a good combine.

The Packers took a chance and they struck gold. Their recent drafts have been really good and that's why they are one of the most talented teams in the NFL right now.
 
That is true but Matthews was considered one of the top prospects for the position. He was considered a 1st round talent and he also had a good combine.

The Packers took a chance and they struck gold. Their recent drafts have been really good and that's why they are one of the most talented teams in the NFL right now.

Matthews had red flags all over him. Limited production, too small, loads of steroid concerns, he is the antithesis of what NE looks for in a first rounder.

Would you completely change your investment philosophy simply because one of the questionable companies took off? Chasing exceptions like that are how you go broke.
 
That is true but Matthews was considered one of the top prospects for the position. He was considered a 1st round talent and he also had a good combine.

I think that should read "he was considered a 1st round talent BECAUSE he had a good combine."

Here's a pre-combine thread on Matthews from this board. Notice the divide between the people who think it would be ridiculous to spend higher than a 5th on a guy who did so little in college, vs. the Matthews boosters who argued he could be worth as high as a 3rd based on potential:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...191135-usc-de-lb-everybody-here-sleeping.html

Obviously, Matthews was a terrific pick for Green Bay. I'm just opposed to the revisionist history that says the Pats "passed on an obvious stud OLB."
 
Would you completely change your investment philosophy simply because one of the questionable companies took off?

Chasing exceptions like that are how you go broke.

Ahhh...Nicely put.

I'm the first one to toss Coach Bill under the bus when he makes the occasionally blatantly stupid move, a la O'Connell or Burgess...

...even while acknowledging that he is not only brilliant...but the very, very best.

And I personally saw far less downside than most* in Matthews, who I was crazy about, thank you, for one reason: Passion. I would, furthermore, stipulate that I'm not entirely convinced that he wouldn't've become a solid Run Stopper in our scheme, my Argument being that Passion is as important as Skill in that matter: I believe he'd do whatever was asked of him, and would give us everything he had.

*Not trying to annoy and sicken y'all by perpetrating like I was a Seer: Among many other spectacular gaffes, I was a big fan of Brady Quinn, for instance.

***

But to circle back to Os's point: Even with my deep desire to acquire Matthew's services, I would've made that trade 1000 times in a row: A strong, deep roster is an hell of a lot better way to build a Championship team than a thin, top heavy one.

And for those of you who would argue that Clay Matthews was the difference maker in Green Bay winning it all, I would argue that you are dead wrong: For one thing, they would've had an appreciably deeper and more talented roster had they retained those Picks. For another: Dozens of factors contribute to a Championship, and while you can possibly boil critical factors to a select few ~ such as getting rid of that vile excrement that used to play Quarter Back, for one ~ Clay Matthews, while arguably one of them, was most clearly not the most important one.

That honor...goes to Dom Capers.
 
Matthews had red flags all over him. Limited production, too small, loads of steroid concerns, he is the antithesis of what NE looks for in a first rounder.

Would you completely change your investment philosophy simply because one of the questionable companies took off? Chasing exceptions like that are how you go broke.

I'm not saying that we should've taken him. I wasn't all that high on him. Hindsight is always 20/20.

All i'm saying that he was a top prospect and sometimes taking a chance does work out.
 
I'm not saying that we should've taken him. I wasn't all that high on him. Hindsight is always 20/20.

All i'm saying that he was a top prospect and sometimes taking a chance does work out.

Every time you draft a player, you're taking a chance.

The Patriots aren't risk-averse. They've gone out on a limb for some players, like Mankins in the 1st, or Vollmer in the 2nd when he wasn't even invited to the combine. And the Patriots have already said the combine doesn't have a huge influence on their rankings apart from injury reports. Based on tape, Matthews was not a 1st rounder.

But using a 1st-rounder on a guy who played 10 games in college, didn't dominate, and was a 3rd-rounder until the combine is much more than taking a chance. It's a gamble.

The Packers could also afford to gamble a bit as they were coming off a poor year, which gave them the 9th pick in the draft. They used that premium pick on B.J. Raji, the top NT, and could take a chance on Matthews. Even if Matthews busted, they would come out of the draft with a top talent.
 
Every time you draft a player, you're taking a chance.

The Patriots aren't risk-averse. They've gone out on a limb for some players, like Mankins in the 1st, or Vollmer in the 2nd when he wasn't even invited to the combine. And the Patriots have already said the combine doesn't have a huge influence on their rankings apart from injury reports. Based on tape, Matthews was not a 1st rounder.

But using a 1st-rounder on a guy who played 10 games in college, didn't dominate, and was a 3rd-rounder until the combine is much more than taking a chance. It's a gamble.

The Packers could also afford to gamble a bit as they were coming off a poor year, which gave them the 9th pick in the draft. They used that premium pick on B.J. Raji, the top NT, and could take a chance on Matthews. Even if Matthews busted, they would come out of the draft with a top talent.

Oh come on now...you're making it sound as if the Matthews pick was sheer dumb luck.

They obviously liked what they saw and made a move. Now they have the best young linebacker in the league.

And drafting O-lineman is far safer...especially if you have Scarnecchia doing the scouting. I do think the Pats are risk-averse. But that's not really something i'm going to be complaining about.
 
There is no tape that shows heart and motivation. The measurables can lie -- see Gholston who the Pats were tipped to pick. Or Crable whom they did pick. Which is precisely why BB is vary of gambling a first round pick on a position where the intangibles are important -- especially in converting college DE to OLBs in the Pats system. Which is why he keeps relying on veterans with a track record. Problem is if you want a Julius Peppers you have to be willing to pay the man a fortune. Or you may occasionally get lucky with a Vrabel.

Give the Packers credit. They saw Matthews for what he could become and lady luck smiled on them. Matthews came through.
 
Oh come on now...you're making it sound as if the Matthews pick was sheer dumb luck.

They obviously liked what they saw and made a move. Now they have the best young linebacker in the league.

And drafting O-lineman is far safer...especially if you have Scarnecchia doing the scouting. I do think the Pats are risk-averse. But that's not really something i'm going to be complaining about.

The Patriots have mentioned the combine doesn't impact their ratings on players much. Based on Matthews's career (1 year as a starter, 10 total starts, 5 sacks total), was he worth a 1st rounder? Probably not, and not anywhere close.

And I do think the Packers having the 9th pick in that draft set them up well to take a bit of a gamble. Not only do they have a top 10 pick, but it's not much of a trade-up to get back into the 1st round. It was a bold move, and they deserve full credit for it, but there are plenty of teams who didn't trust the combine vs. what they saw on tape.

Sure, OL are a bit safer to project, but that doesn't mean they haven't reached for some of those players. Taking anyone not at the combine in the second round shows they are willing to take risks so long as they trust the grade they have on the guy.
 
The Packers took a chance and they struck gold.

All i'm saying that he was a top prospect and sometimes taking a chance does work out.

Absolutely. That is why people buy lottery tickets. I think some people invest their money in lottery tickets. Some people do win big.

They obviously liked what they saw and made a move.

Yes. Of course, that is usually the case with busts as well.

Would you completely change your investment philosophy simply because one of the questionable companies took off? Chasing exceptions like that are how you go broke.

Ironically, hitting on a very risky investment can be a dangerous thing to do. It can lead a person to overestimate his skill and underestimate his luck. I would not be surprised if this happens in drafting as well. (I'm just making a general point; I'm not thinking of anyone in particular.)
 
And I do think the Packers having the 9th pick in that draft set them up well to take a bit of a gamble.

I don't think any well run organization functions this way. You have to try to maximize every asset you have. Instead I believe the Packers simply believed that trading for Matthews had a better risk / reward (or value if thats what you want to call it) than staying put and making their picks.
 
I don't think any well run organization functions this way. You have to try to maximize every asset you have. Instead I believe the Packers simply believed that trading for Matthews had a better risk / reward (or value if thats what you want to call it) than staying put and making their picks.

I agree, that's probably GB's thought process. But I also think having the 9th overall pick helped set them up to take a bit more risk in the back-end of the round. They didn't have to give up as much to trade back into the round, and they already secured a potential stud for their defense.

If they only had say the 20th pick in the 1st round, would they be willing to take such a risk? Maybe they would, and maybe they were sold on him being a star all along. But he felt like a gamble to me, and though they won, it's not exactly what I'd have wanted us to do with our only 1st. Then again, we had the second pick in the 2nd round so maybe it was worth the risk, and we could have gotten a safe player with that pick.
 
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About Mathews, all I can say is the Pats steam-rolled him when we played GB. I don't remember his name ever being called, unless it was in reference to pancake blocks (Vollmar, et al). He reminds me of a former Charger LB who was an overachiever for a few years then faded away ............once he had to stop using the 'roids.
 
About Mathews, all I can say is the Pats steam-rolled him when we played GB. I don't remember his name ever being called, unless it was in reference to pancake blocks (Vollmar, et al). He reminds me of a former Charger LB who was an overachiever for a few years then faded away ............once he had to stop using the 'roids.

Just rewatched that game a few days ago! He was doubleteamed twice on passing plays (3-man rush and 5-man protection, 4-man rush and 6-man protection), yet his only pressure came inside untouched on a stunt. He got literally no pressure against Vollmer. None.
 
Matthews was never a top prospect or even first round pick based on his college career.
 
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The three original selections they traded to get those players turned into Clay Matthews, Demariyus Thomas, and Jared Cook. Matthews is obviously the pick that hurts, but you can see the strategy here really clearly. You acquire more darts to throw at the board, which spreads out the risk so that your misses (Butler) are balanced out by hits (Gronkowski). And the fallout from all extra those dart throws is that you end up with free numbers and depth.
..........

Great post and I like the analogy of throwing darts. And aquiring more darts (picks) is especially important when you are pretty good at throwing darts.

Put it this way - if you know you are a better dart player than your opponent, you should try to have more games vs them rather than less games. ex. a 3 out of 5 competition would be smarter for the better player (Belicheck) rather than a one game format. Because in the one game format - the lesser player could get luck (good fortune) on their side. Whereas when playing more games - luck will tend to 'even out' and skill becomes the more deciding factor.

Since BB is pretty good at picking talent to fit NEP scheme (and also credit to the scouts and FO) - better to give him more shots at hitting a bullseye than less.

Not to mention when BB stockpiles more picks -it opens up even more possibilites for further trading. Say that 1/3 of the teams (at the bottom of the round) are not interested in expending too much ammo to move up into the top half of the particular draft round. But if you have multiple picks in the round -and some are in the top half and one in the bottom half -then you are opening yourself up to potentially trade with virtually all of the other teams. And BB will usually only take the trades he sees as favorable (taking Ras -I Dowling instead of trading). Sure - he can sometimes be wrong about a player-but more times than not he is right.
 
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