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Belichick has had 6 years to build the franchise.
If you look across the roster, it is entirely different than what he walked into.
Prioriites are different (i.e. drafting big early rather than fast). Consider this:
In BBs 6 drafts, his top picks in each draft has been
OT
DE/DT
TE
DT/DE
NT, then TE also in the first
OL
As much as BB values the secondary, there is no corner (and we have gone through many elderly corners) no safety. As much as BB has focussed on Brady having the ball in his hands when the game is on the line, the is no WR.
No LBs either.
The 3 biggest guys on the field, OL, DL, TE are what he has drafted.
I think its realistic to say we go into next year without a position that screams of first round need.
DL doesnt. OL doesnt. We dont need to replace Dillon. WR is possible depending on FA. The secondary will only add players that were hurt, the LBs were the best in the NFL.
Now when you look at it from the other side, a #1 could have impact at any position but QB TE, and DL. We could surely benefit from a mauler on the OL. We absolutely could find a starting job for a WR, CB, S, (At least until Harrison is ready) and could use youth at RB or LB.
I think this draft becomes very interesting. We can fill all needs throughout the draft. Weve shown we can get winning players in later rounds. I think BB will see this draft as an opportunity. That is, in round 1, which may include trading up, he has an opportunity to add something special, but the risk is not severe. We can afford a first round bust.
As I think about it, I think BB takes a step back, looks at his team that has won 3 of 5 SBs, then considers what other winning teams have that he does not.
I dont think that has him thinking defense. The scheme we have, and talent we have has made us one of the few best defenses in the NFL for 4 years. (I count this year, because by Thanskgiving we were one of the very few best). Continuing the plan, adding where necessary, filling with later picks or cheaper FAs will work. Remember, we have young starters across the DL and throughut the secondary, and LBs that will keep youngsters off the field.
I think this approach focusses on offense.
What do top teams do, that we don't do? Or what do they have.
And for this argument, lets use top offenses.
To me, its mismatches.
The Colts have enough weapons that a weaker defender is always covering a good receiver.
The Chiefs offensive line is a mismatch vs most teams.
The Broncos running game, and the Steeler running game are almost always effective, every game vs every opponent. (I think OL is the answer there too).
SD has the mismatch of LT.
We have not had a mismatch in our offense. Brady is a mismatch, but hasn't had that All-Pro WR or combination of RB and OL.
This makes me consider 3 options:
1) Offensive Line. Will BB take the opportunity to turn his OL into what he has turned his DL into?
We go into next year with:
A #1 pick (and where you were picked isnt exactly what you are, but its an easy assessment) who could play either G spot or either T spot
A #2 pick at LT that has become IMO one of the best in the NFL.
A 3rd rounder from last year that looks like a guy who will be very good for a long time
A street FA who has started 2 years and is a FA now
A late pick who has been a pretty good C. Not great, oir dominant but effective.
And a unit filled out with players who didnt make it elsewhere early in their career, came here and became servicable guys.
What if BB were to use his #1, trade up in round 2 (package one of the 3s and you move up maybe to the 40s) this year, and a 1 next year, to add to Light, Mankins and Kaczur and built an All-Pro OL????????
How well would it fit with our defense that we have an OL that could dominate with any RB behind it? Couldnt we go the way of Denver and plug anyone in and be a dominant run team? I like what BB and Dante have gotten for very cheap out of borderline OL prospects, but is Dan Koppen a piece of what could be the best OL in the NFL? Brandon Gorin, Tom Ashwoth, Russ Hochstein?
Could BB use this opportunity to build the NFLs best OL? And if he did, would it ensure the dynasty for a long time, given what you know he will do with the D, and having Tom Brady with an *****-kicking running game to support him?
Is it possible to use the next 2 drafts to build the best OL in the NFL? Do Mankins, Light, and Kaczur qualify as guys good enough to be part of the best OL in the NFL? Personally, I think they do.
2) A stud WR. A walking mismatch, a goto guy who can catch 100 balls every year, and make every play. What would Brady do with a guy like that? What would Brady do having a guy like that open up the rest of the field? That is something we have not had, and would give us another decided advantage.
3) A 10 yr All-Pro RB. At 21 its questionable, but if we had Larry Johnson, or LT, or Shawn Alexander we would have something we havent (except for 04) and that top teams frequently have.
I think I am in the camp that says if I am BB, I commit today to building the best OL in the NFL.
Matt Light at LT will never be the reason it isnt. He is a good pass blocker, and one of the best, most mobile run blocking LTs.
I think you can put Mankins at any spot on the OL, and very soon have a dominating run blocker. Kaczur seems real to me, and I think he can grow into a very good run and pass blocker, and could also play anywhere across the line.
If we added the best, non-LT OL in this draft, plus Koppen back at C to those 3, I think we already would have a top 10 OL, and a top 10 running game. Add an All-pro caliber C to that, and we could well develop the best OL in the NFL.
Consider a BB/Brady team with the best running game in the NFL. THAT is freightening.
We can get that with a healthy Dillon now, and bring in a 3rd-4th round pick to groom as the replacement (like Denver does) or hit Free Agency later.
When we had Richard Seymour, Bobby Hamilton, Anthony Pleasant, Rick Lyle, Steve Martin, etc as our DL, it was hard to envision having the best and most talented DL in the NFL. That was 3 years ago. We had ONE piece. We filled in with Ted Washington, and we drafted heavily on the DL. Green, Warren, Klecko, Wilfork, Hill. Some worked out, some havent yet, but BB committed to having a DL that was a dominant force.
IMO, we have 3 of the pieces we need for such an OL. If there is one characteristic we have not had, that I think would be a perfect element in BBs system, it would be a great OL.
We have done the Adrian Klemms, Robinson-Randalls, Kenyatta Jones', late round pick route, and development of street free agents.
If Klemm had worked out to be the "#1 quality" that was expected, and instead of Randall, Jones and Koppen, we drafted OL in the first round those years, is their any doubt we'd have a dominant OL?
We couldnt afford to then, because we needed the playmakers at TE, we needed the DL players.
I think we can afford to now.
Overall I would say we have won Championships with average OLs built from spending what would bring below average players, as a group.
If you look across the roster, we have developed the best QB in the NFL from a 6th round pick. We have quality starting WRs drafted in the 2nd and 7th. We have good corners drafted in the 3rd and 4th. Our LBs didnt come from the draft. We have found our way to RBs in FA that have gotten us rings.
I see evidence that any need this team has can be effectively filled without using 1st or 2nd round picks (the one in question is DL but it is stocked). We can continue to go cheap on the OL and hope to win with an average unit. I endorse spending heavy on it, and ramping it up to best in the NFL level.
By the way, that can partly be achieved in FA too, but the cost is higher and the players are older.
If you look across the roster, it is entirely different than what he walked into.
Prioriites are different (i.e. drafting big early rather than fast). Consider this:
In BBs 6 drafts, his top picks in each draft has been
OT
DE/DT
TE
DT/DE
NT, then TE also in the first
OL
As much as BB values the secondary, there is no corner (and we have gone through many elderly corners) no safety. As much as BB has focussed on Brady having the ball in his hands when the game is on the line, the is no WR.
No LBs either.
The 3 biggest guys on the field, OL, DL, TE are what he has drafted.
I think its realistic to say we go into next year without a position that screams of first round need.
DL doesnt. OL doesnt. We dont need to replace Dillon. WR is possible depending on FA. The secondary will only add players that were hurt, the LBs were the best in the NFL.
Now when you look at it from the other side, a #1 could have impact at any position but QB TE, and DL. We could surely benefit from a mauler on the OL. We absolutely could find a starting job for a WR, CB, S, (At least until Harrison is ready) and could use youth at RB or LB.
I think this draft becomes very interesting. We can fill all needs throughout the draft. Weve shown we can get winning players in later rounds. I think BB will see this draft as an opportunity. That is, in round 1, which may include trading up, he has an opportunity to add something special, but the risk is not severe. We can afford a first round bust.
As I think about it, I think BB takes a step back, looks at his team that has won 3 of 5 SBs, then considers what other winning teams have that he does not.
I dont think that has him thinking defense. The scheme we have, and talent we have has made us one of the few best defenses in the NFL for 4 years. (I count this year, because by Thanskgiving we were one of the very few best). Continuing the plan, adding where necessary, filling with later picks or cheaper FAs will work. Remember, we have young starters across the DL and throughut the secondary, and LBs that will keep youngsters off the field.
I think this approach focusses on offense.
What do top teams do, that we don't do? Or what do they have.
And for this argument, lets use top offenses.
To me, its mismatches.
The Colts have enough weapons that a weaker defender is always covering a good receiver.
The Chiefs offensive line is a mismatch vs most teams.
The Broncos running game, and the Steeler running game are almost always effective, every game vs every opponent. (I think OL is the answer there too).
SD has the mismatch of LT.
We have not had a mismatch in our offense. Brady is a mismatch, but hasn't had that All-Pro WR or combination of RB and OL.
This makes me consider 3 options:
1) Offensive Line. Will BB take the opportunity to turn his OL into what he has turned his DL into?
We go into next year with:
A #1 pick (and where you were picked isnt exactly what you are, but its an easy assessment) who could play either G spot or either T spot
A #2 pick at LT that has become IMO one of the best in the NFL.
A 3rd rounder from last year that looks like a guy who will be very good for a long time
A street FA who has started 2 years and is a FA now
A late pick who has been a pretty good C. Not great, oir dominant but effective.
And a unit filled out with players who didnt make it elsewhere early in their career, came here and became servicable guys.
What if BB were to use his #1, trade up in round 2 (package one of the 3s and you move up maybe to the 40s) this year, and a 1 next year, to add to Light, Mankins and Kaczur and built an All-Pro OL????????
How well would it fit with our defense that we have an OL that could dominate with any RB behind it? Couldnt we go the way of Denver and plug anyone in and be a dominant run team? I like what BB and Dante have gotten for very cheap out of borderline OL prospects, but is Dan Koppen a piece of what could be the best OL in the NFL? Brandon Gorin, Tom Ashwoth, Russ Hochstein?
Could BB use this opportunity to build the NFLs best OL? And if he did, would it ensure the dynasty for a long time, given what you know he will do with the D, and having Tom Brady with an *****-kicking running game to support him?
Is it possible to use the next 2 drafts to build the best OL in the NFL? Do Mankins, Light, and Kaczur qualify as guys good enough to be part of the best OL in the NFL? Personally, I think they do.
2) A stud WR. A walking mismatch, a goto guy who can catch 100 balls every year, and make every play. What would Brady do with a guy like that? What would Brady do having a guy like that open up the rest of the field? That is something we have not had, and would give us another decided advantage.
3) A 10 yr All-Pro RB. At 21 its questionable, but if we had Larry Johnson, or LT, or Shawn Alexander we would have something we havent (except for 04) and that top teams frequently have.
I think I am in the camp that says if I am BB, I commit today to building the best OL in the NFL.
Matt Light at LT will never be the reason it isnt. He is a good pass blocker, and one of the best, most mobile run blocking LTs.
I think you can put Mankins at any spot on the OL, and very soon have a dominating run blocker. Kaczur seems real to me, and I think he can grow into a very good run and pass blocker, and could also play anywhere across the line.
If we added the best, non-LT OL in this draft, plus Koppen back at C to those 3, I think we already would have a top 10 OL, and a top 10 running game. Add an All-pro caliber C to that, and we could well develop the best OL in the NFL.
Consider a BB/Brady team with the best running game in the NFL. THAT is freightening.
We can get that with a healthy Dillon now, and bring in a 3rd-4th round pick to groom as the replacement (like Denver does) or hit Free Agency later.
When we had Richard Seymour, Bobby Hamilton, Anthony Pleasant, Rick Lyle, Steve Martin, etc as our DL, it was hard to envision having the best and most talented DL in the NFL. That was 3 years ago. We had ONE piece. We filled in with Ted Washington, and we drafted heavily on the DL. Green, Warren, Klecko, Wilfork, Hill. Some worked out, some havent yet, but BB committed to having a DL that was a dominant force.
IMO, we have 3 of the pieces we need for such an OL. If there is one characteristic we have not had, that I think would be a perfect element in BBs system, it would be a great OL.
We have done the Adrian Klemms, Robinson-Randalls, Kenyatta Jones', late round pick route, and development of street free agents.
If Klemm had worked out to be the "#1 quality" that was expected, and instead of Randall, Jones and Koppen, we drafted OL in the first round those years, is their any doubt we'd have a dominant OL?
We couldnt afford to then, because we needed the playmakers at TE, we needed the DL players.
I think we can afford to now.
Overall I would say we have won Championships with average OLs built from spending what would bring below average players, as a group.
If you look across the roster, we have developed the best QB in the NFL from a 6th round pick. We have quality starting WRs drafted in the 2nd and 7th. We have good corners drafted in the 3rd and 4th. Our LBs didnt come from the draft. We have found our way to RBs in FA that have gotten us rings.
I see evidence that any need this team has can be effectively filled without using 1st or 2nd round picks (the one in question is DL but it is stocked). We can continue to go cheap on the OL and hope to win with an average unit. I endorse spending heavy on it, and ramping it up to best in the NFL level.
By the way, that can partly be achieved in FA too, but the cost is higher and the players are older.
