This teams biggest problem- O'Brien

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Hmmm.... first of all the Patriots have a very good offense, even if isn't what it once was. Randy Moss has a little something to do with that.

You do realize that the Patriots have an injured starting running back, lost their dependable third down back, recently traded away their superstar receiver, and have their other pro bowl receiver playing off a recent ACL injury.... right?

In addition, they have the following issues to deal with:

Two rookie tight ends with 8 games of NFL experience each, one being the youngest player in the NFL.

Their #1 receiver, or at least the guy who lines up there (Branch) has been back with the team for a grand total of four weeks.

Their burner (Tate), has been asked to increase his role dramatically for all of four weeks. He also missed his senior year of college with an injury and missed most of last year with an injury.

I saw not a lot of separation today (talent issue), but a lot of balls that landed between the numbers. I think that's a sign of good coaching, even if they couldn't capitalize on it.

The biggest problem, to isolate it, is their first down offense. Watch the Jets games. Every series they have a second-and-three. The Patriots have second-and-nine, third-and-seven all too often.

 

[condon84]

Silly to blame O'Brien. Brady missed throws. Missed open guys. Receivers not catching with their hands or their feet. Nothing O'Brien can do anything about that.

 

[woodheadwow]

You do realize that Woodhead is averaging over 5yds/carry and BJGE is around 5yrs/carry for the year, correct? That's hardly consistent with 'can't run the ball'. Seems to indicate the opposite, actually.

WW

i dont get this commitment to run and abandoning the run concept ...whats the point when you arent able to run the ball ? you have to change things up. to his credit vs vikes and chargers he adjusted in the 2nd half and got the running game going so your assesment is actually off base IMO
Lack of balance in the Red zone - i dont know the stats but i think we have been much better in the RZ this yr ..certainly better than last yr i think .
regarding hiding player's weaknesses - can you give me an example ? same with utilizing strengths...who is not utilizing ?

how about receivers catching the damn ball to start with ?

 

[woodheadwow]

Hmmm.... first of all the Patriots have a very good offense, even if isn't what it once was. Randy Moss has a little something to do with that.

You do realize that the Patriots have an injured starting running back, lost their dependable third down back, recently traded away their superstar receiver, and have their other pro bowl receiver playing off a recent ACL injury.... right?

In addition, they have the following issues to deal with:

Two rookie tight ends with 8 games of NFL experience each, one being the youngest player in the NFL.

Their #1 receiver, or at least the guy who lines up there (Branch) has been back with the team for a grand total of four weeks.

Their burner (Tate), has been asked to increase his role dramatically for all of four weeks. He also missed his senior year of college with an injury and missed most of last year with an injury.

I saw not a lot of separation today (talent issue), but a lot of balls that landed between the numbers. I think that's a sign of good coaching, even if they couldn't capitalize on it.

The biggest problem, to isolate it, is their first down offense. Watch the Jets games. Every series they have a second-and-three. The Patriots have second-and-nine, third-and-seven all too often.

None of these explain BOB predictability and abandoning the running game, unfortunately. They also don't explain his foolish fascination with the spread, a formation that isn't a good fit for this team, doesn't work for this team, and hasn't been working for this team for close to a year. Why would you defend such a baffoon as BOB?

WW

 

[The Dynasty]

Your post is the one that doesn't make sense, not mine. If a team runs the ball 90+ percentage of the time on 3rd and 1, that is called a tendency. Very strong tendencies are easy to defend against. Because the Patriots have tendencies that are ridiculously strong, they are predictable.
Here are some examples of how BOB formations give away the play:

1. Shotgun, no RB= pass. He runs this formation way too often based on his personnel and success rate. He also tends to run it when the score is close or when they are behind to an inordinate degree.
2. He moves the HB up a yard on dives, but doesn't do the same thing in PA. He also runs to the strong side way too high a percentage of the time, but that's another story.
3. He changes the splits of the OL on certain run plays, which as a casual observer I can pick up. If I can pick it up, don't you think DC can pick it up?

As far as hanging the defense out to dry, if the defense was just on the field for a long drive and they are sucking wind, it's generally not a smart idea to run a high risk, high reward play on 1st and/or 2nd down, because if the play fails, that means the defense will most likely end up right back on the field. This is called game management.

What in the world makes you believe he has improved one bit this year? He has been horrible.

WW

Well, we'll start on 3rd and 1. I guarantee that almost of the teams in the league run the ball 90% of the ball on 3rd and 1. Its just common sense, an NFL RB should be able to get a yard. The Pats do not have a short yardage back that most NFL teams have, that is why they struggle in short yardage situations. The OL isnt that great on short yardage plays as well. This is not on BOB, calling a run on 3rd and 1 isnt a bad call, your offense should be able to execute it.

I really cant say much about your observations of how the formations that give plays away because I havent seen them and really have no way of watching every play this season. I do find it interesting that none of the NFL/Patriot experts have brought this up. If it really was that obvious you would think atleast one of them would make a point of it.

You need to provide examples of when BOB after a long drive called bad plays and forced 3 and outs for the offense. Its kind of the same thing if he called 3 runs and they all didnt go for more than 2 or 3 yards, which is the likely scenario because the Pats running game isnt the best by any means. The defense would be back on the field just as quickly...

As for improving from last year. The team struggled mightily in the red zone last year and have added some young quality TEs and have definitely improved this season. Unlike last season there havent been many wastes of timeouts because the play was late getting in or something like that. Brady and BOB seem to have a better relationship. Look at some of the point totals so far this season as well...38,38,41. Scoring over 30 points in over 1/3 is pretty good. The offense has definitely shown a great deal of improvement from last season

 

[The Dynasty]

You do realize that Woodhead is averaging over 5yds/carry and BJGE is around 5yrs/carry for the year, correct? That's hardly consistent with 'can't run the ball'. Seems to indicate the opposite, actually.

WW

4.4 and 4.9. Woodhead only has like 35 carries, throws the number off. You really think those guys can get 5 yards every time they touch the ball? "Stats are for losers"...

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I see no benefit to firing BOB mid season so put me down as wanting him to finish off the season. But, I am not expecting much from the guy, as I see him as mediocre at best as a play caller.

 

[DaBruinz]

I have absolutely 0 idea how this guy skates by with so little criticism. He has proven himself a horrible football coach and he needs to be fired. This team cannot overcome our OC and will never win as long as he keeps his job. Here are some of my problems with him (not in order):

You must not read this board much because O'Brien has been taken to task numerous times since last year..

1. Predictability.
He almost never runs the ball on 3rd and 2 or higher. When he gets behind or the game gets close, he panics and goes to the spread and uses it almost exclusively, even if it's not working and despite the fact that this team does not have the personnel to be consistently effective with this formation. He seldom throws the ball on 3rd and 1 or less (although today they did run play action on 4th and 1). Also, he tends to show or use his new stuff early in the game so he doesn't have any tricks to go to if he gets in trouble late.
His formations also give away the type of play way too often (run or pass).

2. Too much finesse.
Too many draws, traps, delays, and counters. Lack of balance in the red zone. Abandoning the run WAY too early, even if it's working. At other times, poor or no commitment to the run.

3. He hangs the defense out to dry too often.
No adjustments made for a tired defense, or poor adjustments. Too little emphasis on game management and too much emphasis on quick strike.

Besides these things, I also feel that he struggles to hide certain players' weaknesses and fails to effectively utilize others strengths. And we all know he struggles to make adjustments in game. Overall, he is a terrible coach and needs to be fired.

WW

While O'Brien is an issue, he's not responsible for the receivers dropping the ball as much as they did or for Brady's poor throws even when he wasn't under pressure..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The only criticism I have of this offense right now is their reluctance to throw the ball deep. I'd like to see them take a chance on a vertical route at least once a game. Maybe they won't complete it, but at least they make the defense think about playing a safety back. They are going to need Tate to eventually develop into a deep threat, so I'm not sure why they're not at least trying to get him involved. If they really don't believe he can be that home run threat, then perhaps they should have traded 4th round pick for a speedster rather than Branch.

Case in point. The Browns threw deep to Cribbs today. It was incomplete... but it helped to stretch the field and open up the underneath routes. Defensive backs start to worry about getting beaten over the top and ending up on Sportscenter.

 

[The Dynasty]

The only criticism I have of this offense right now is their reluctance to throw the ball deep. I'd like to see them take a chance on a vertical route at least once a game. Maybe they won't complete it, but at least they make the defense think about playing a safety back. They are going to need Tate to eventually develop into a deep threat, so I'm not sure why they're not at least trying to get him involved. If they really don't believe he can be that home run threat, then perhaps they should have traded 4th round pick for a speedster rather than Branch.

Case in point. The Browns threw deep to Cribbs today. It was incomplete... but it helped to stretch the field and open up the underneath routes. Defensive backs start to worry about getting beaten over the top and ending up on Sportscenter.

I agree that the Patriots dont take many shots downfield post Moss, but it really is tough to call a deep pass when you dont really have a deep threat. Cribbs is a deep threat, the Pats dont have any. Its easier to call knowing you have someone that can actually make a play. Tate has been a disappointment in the deep play making category. The Pats need to add a deep threat in the passing game in the off season whether a signing (Moss?) or through the draft

 

[woodheadwow]

Well, we'll start on 3rd and 1. I guarantee that almost of the teams in the league run the ball 90% of the ball on 3rd and 1. Its just common sense, an NFL RB should be able to get a yard. The Pats do not have a short yardage back that most NFL teams have, that is why they struggle in short yardage situations. The OL isnt that great on short yardage plays as well. This is not on BOB, calling a run on 3rd and 1 isnt a bad call, your offense should be able to execute it.

I really cant say much about your observations of how the formations that give plays away because I havent seen them and really have no way of watching every play this season. I do find it interesting that none of the NFL/Patriot experts have brought this up. If it really was that obvious you would think atleast one of them would make a point of it.

You need to provide examples of when BOB after a long drive called bad plays and forced 3 and outs for the offense. Its kind of the same thing if he called 3 runs and they all didnt go for more than 2 or 3 yards, which is the likely scenario because the Pats running game isnt the best by any means. The defense would be back on the field just as quickly...

As for improving from last year. The team struggled mightily in the red zone last year and have added some young quality TEs and have definitely improved this season. Unlike last season there havent been many wastes of timeouts because the play was late getting in or something like that. Brady and BOB seem to have a better relationship. Look at some of the point totals so far this season as well...38,38,41. Scoring over 30 points in over 1/3 is pretty good. The offense has definitely shown a great deal of improvement from last season

As far as what other teams do on 3rd and 1, your argument works; but not the reciprocal as the Patriots just about NEVER run the ball on 3rd and 2 or longer, which is an incredibly stupid way to approach 3rd down as the defense simply doesn't have to defend against the run. By the way, both Weiss and especially McDaniels believed in running the ball on 3rd down to force the defense to defend both aspects of the game, so this is a totally new and recent ineptness that only BoB can be credited for implementing.
If you haven't noticed the splits and change of running back positions, look for it and you soon will. I'm sure you have noticed that we run the spread a much higher percentage of the time that the results of this formation warrant, and since the spread features no running backs, the defense does not have to defend agains the run. Another thing that really annoys me is that occasionally we'll run offset I or some other similar type formation (usually but not always a running formation) once or twice a game and EVERY time we use the formation we run out of it, and it just about NEVER works, the reason being that other team clearly knows what we are going to do because once again, our OC is predicable.
As far as BOB calling bad plays that don't protect the defense, just watch the games, he does it just about every game. BTW, 2 running plays in that situation are not bad plays, because they are not high risk plays, so at worst the offense should have a managable 3rd down conversion attempt (provided the running plays aren't gimmicky and slow developing, which is exactly the running plays that BoB in general prefers, btw). A high risk play is something slow developing that has a high probability of leading to a sack, incompletion, loss of yardage, etc. A reverse, a bomb, a deep out, a screen, are examples. The worst time to run these types of plays are the opening plays of a drive after the defense just gave up a long drive, because when they inevitably don't work (and they will not always work as no play works everytime), the likelihood is a 3 and out and the defense is right back on the field.

WW

 

[woodheadwow]

4.4 and 4.9. Woodhead only has like 35 carries, throws the number off. You really think those guys can get 5 yards every time they touch the ball? "Stats are for losers"...

I don't see how you can extrapolate that running the ball more often wouldn't work, especially with Woodhead. What would make you think that? The guy seems to me to be an exciting football player, and effective, too.

WW

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

As far as what other teams do on 3rd and 1, your argument works; but not the reciprocal as the Patriots just about NEVER run the ball on 3rd and 2 or longer, which is an incredibly stupid way to approach 3rd down as the defense simply doesn't have to defend against the run. By the way, both Weiss and especially McDaniels believed in running the ball on 3rd down to force the defense to defend both aspects of the game, so this is a totally new and recent ineptness that only BoB can be credited for implementing.


WW

I agree with you on this one. That was a terrific play on 4th and 1 near the end of the first half, and this was because of the disguise; the Browns expected a run. Not sure how running play action outweighs the element of camouflage, and I think the Patriots are stubborn in this part of the game. Third and two, going out of shotgun? Seriously?

 

[bostonia3333]

As bad as Obrien is, I'm not sure what more you could do with the lousy personnel we have on our roster. Welker is exempt from blame because hes's coming off injury. Maybe this season will bring out the best in Obrien because of the great challenges he's faced with...but yeah I'm sick of the predictability of our offense


This is probably the worst WR core in the division and one of the top 5 worst in the NFL. I am really disappointed in Brandon Tate because I actually had high expectations of him going into the season. Tate seems more like Slater in that he's more of a skilled kick returner. He demonstrates poor body control and awareness when a pass is approaching him. He's tippy toeing every reception when he should be 20 yds down the field instead of trying to stay on his feet. He is a bust plain and simple--8 games is more than enough sample to prove your worth. Either you get it or you dont by now.

 

[woodheadwow]

I agree with you on this one. That was a terrific play on 4th and 1 near the end of the first half, and this was because of the disguise; the Browns expected a run. Not sure how running play action outweighs the element of camouflage, and I think the Patriots are stubborn in this part of the game. Third and two, going out of shotgun? Seriously?

OK, at least we are on the same page here. I'll add to this: it's 3rd and 2 and if you want to throw the ball, fine- but at least do it out of a traditional formation that uses 2 or more of your better players (ie Hernandez, Woodhead, Gronkowski) as decoys so the other team can't key on what you are going to do. Why come out in 5 WR or even 4 WR and 1 RB when you have such good tight ends? BTW that 4th and 1 was a terrific play.

WW

 

[woodheadwow]

As bad as Obrien is, I'm not sure what more you could do with the lousy personnel we have on our roster. Welker is exempt from blame because hes's coming off injury. Maybe this season will bring out the best in Obrien because of the great challenges he's faced with...but yeah I'm sick of the predictability of our offense


This is probably the worst WR core in the division and one of the top 5 worst in the NFL. I am really disappointed in Brandon Tate because I actually had high expectations of him going into the season. Tate seems more like Slater in that he's more of a skilled kick returner. He demonstrates poor body control and awareness when a pass is approaching him. He's tippy toeing every reception when he should be 20 yds down the field instead of trying to stay on his feet. He is a bust plain and simple--8 games is more than enough sample to prove your worth. Either you get it or you dont by now.

i agree with you 100% on Tate, it's funny you mention body control because I was just talking about this with my brother. He's got the look of a Bethel Johnson type right now, which means he's probably not long for this team or even this league unless he improves dramatically.
BUT I believe we have a very good player in Hernandez and the potential for a very good player in Gronkowski. I agree on Welker, we are going to have to give him this year to recover from that injury. I'd really like to see Edelman get more snaps and see what he can do, he's a tough kid and I like his game. I have a feeling he's got an undisclosed injurty, though... call it a hunch.
Branch was a bad trade as far as I'm concerned. Injury and age concerns there and no upside... I would have rather they use that draftpick to take a flyer on an athlete.


WW

 

[JackBauer]

So now we've all decided that Tate is a bust?

That's the type of high-quality and well-reasoned analysis you can only find on PatsFans.com.

 

[The Dynasty]

As far as what other teams do on 3rd and 1, your argument works; but not the reciprocal as the Patriots just about NEVER run the ball on 3rd and 2 or longer, which is an incredibly stupid way to approach 3rd down as the defense simply doesn't have to defend against the run. By the way, both Weiss and especially McDaniels believed in running the ball on 3rd down to force the defense to defend both aspects of the game, so this is a totally new and recent ineptness that only BoB can be credited for implementing.

The Patriots arent that talented at the RB position. You havent seen the 3rd and 5 draw play called much this season because Kevin Faulk is on IR. He was the guy getting the draw plays called for him on 3rd and 4/5. And I think we have seen a few draw plays go to Woodhead, just not as much as in the past. This is not a play calling issue, this is a personnel issue.

If you haven't noticed the splits and change of running back positions, look for it and you soon will. I'm sure you have noticed that we run the spread a much higher percentage of the time that the results of this formation warrant, and since the spread features no running backs, the defense does not have to defend agains the run. Another thing that really annoys me is that occasionally we'll run offset I or some other similar type formation (usually but not always a running formation) once or twice a game and EVERY time we use the formation we run out of it, and it just about NEVER works, the reason being that other team clearly knows what we are going to do because once again, our OC is predicable.

The Patriots ran the spread probably more with Weiss than they are with BOB now. This year the Patriots have utilized Hernandez, Gronk and Crumpler and have had more sets with 2 and sometimes 3 TEs. Last year without TEs the Pats ran only 2 and 3 sets every game. This year the Pats have mixed it up showing more sets and looks each game. The Patriots whole philosophy is more emphasized on the pass, more than the run. Their team is built off of Brady and having WRs and TEs who can catch the ball. The Patriots are not a smash mouth football team, and I think you are thinking/wanting them to be.

As far as BOB calling bad plays that don't protect the defense, just watch the games, he does it just about every game. BTW, 2 running plays in that situation are not bad plays, because they are not high risk plays, so at worst the offense should have a managable 3rd down conversion attempt (provided the running plays aren't gimmicky and slow developing, which is exactly the running plays that BoB in general prefers, btw). A high risk play is something slow developing that has a high probability of leading to a sack, incompletion, loss of yardage, etc. A reverse, a bomb, a deep out, a screen, are examples. The worst time to run these types of plays are the opening plays of a drive after the defense just gave up a long drive, because when they inevitably don't work (and they will not always work as no play works everytime), the likelihood is a 3 and out and the defense is right back on the field.

WW

Okay, about low and high risk plays after long drives...doesnt make much sense. You yourself even said BOB doesnt call creative plays, and that is most of your high risk plays, so the Pats dont really ever run high risk plays. The Patriots dont have a solid running game so when they run the ball twice and only gain 2 yards each play that sets up 3rd and 6, which isnt really what you want as an offense. I think you are looking too much into this issue. Like today, after the Browns were up 10-0 and the defense was on the field a good amount of time. Run, short pass, short pass. 3 and out. Those are "low risk" plays but still resulted in the same amount of time on the sidelines for the defense if the Pats ran a reverse, deep bomb and a double reverse. The whole issue is the Patriots dont have a consistent running game so it is tough to really run the ball.

 

[The Dynasty]

I don't see how you can extrapolate that running the ball more often wouldn't work, especially with Woodhead. What would make you think that? The guy seems to me to be an exciting football player, and effective, too.

WW

Yeah, but he is not an every down back in the NFL. He couldnt last more than 2 weeks in the NFL being an every down back getting 20+ carries. He is way too small. He is a very good 3rd down/change up back, but definitely does not have the body to be an every down back

 

[andrewgarrr]

If the personnel isn't the best than the coaching has to be that much better and certainly much more imaginative: i.e. the trick plays or wrinkles that the Browns put in today. Obviously there is some serious execution issues, from Brady's inaccuracy, slippery hands of receivers, and anomalous turnovers - there were many instances in this game, and every other game this season, where the play calling was very predictable and yielding.

The receivers not getting separation is due in part to the lack of physical ability from the player himself as much as is the route design and play calling against certain coverages. If you're telling people to not blame the coaches 100% then you should, in turn, not blame the players 100%. (Your assumption is as good as mine, right?). This comes back to my first point, I don't think Tate, Hernandez, and Gronkowski, lack in physical ability (maybe except Hernandez has some soft hands). I think that the play calling is decent, it isn't necessarily awful or inept, but it could be much better.

If Tate, after 4 weeks, is consistently not getting separation down field on the gos or if Welker isn't making the hard cuts on the outs, then how about some new plays? And why is Welker always running the same two routes on opposite sides of field? There is no variety. Yeah, Tate could get better separation and yeah of course we're accustomed to seeing Welker get separation by digging hard, but right now it's not happening on a consistent basis, however these same routes/plays are always being called. It's frustrating that O'Brien is not making the adjustments to the players capabilities.